Expert Predictions for Week 6 in College Football
Week 5 of the 2017 college football season was one of the most lackluster weekends in several years (save for the USC vs. Washington State showdown), but Bleacher Report's CFB experts are forecasting a more entertaining batch of games in Week 6.
There's only one game between two ranked teams Saturday, and the experts unanimously agree that No. 8 TCU will beat No. 23 West Virginia by a slim margin.
That's a midafternoon game, though. Prior to it, could things get a little wild in the early slate with Nos. 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the AP poll all partaking in noon ET kickoffs? We're long overdue for chaos.
Our college football experts—Matt Hayes, David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Brad Shepard and Greg Wallace—offered up predictions on nine of the hottest burning questions of the week, including:
- Will any coaches get fired?
- Does Michigan or Michigan State win what should be a defensive battle?
- What's the biggest upset of the week?
- Just how mercilessly is Sam Darnold going to destroy Oregon State's secondary?
- Who are the new picks for the College Football Playoff after one month of games?
Our experts are on the case to let you know.
No. 23 West Virginia vs. No. 8 TCU: Who You Got?
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Matt Hayes — Follow @MattHayesCFB
TCU. I really want to pick WVU, because the Mountaineers are better defensively than Oklahoma State and can force turnovers. But TCU played so well against Oklahoma State's passing game, effectively shutting down the Pokes when it mattered most. I see the same thing happening against WVU.
David Kenyon — Follow @Kenyon19_BR
Although I should know better than to doubt the desert, TCU as a 13.5-point favorite doesn't seem right. West Virginia has scored 56-plus points in three straight games. Sure, the competition has been lackluster, but Will Grier is playing great football. However, that's my roundabout way of saying the TCU win is closer than anticipated. Kansas runner Khalil Herbert piled up 291 yards on the 'Eers, and TCU has thrived thanks to a balanced offense that has removed pressure on Kenny Hill to be more than he is.
Adam Kramer — Follow @KegsnEggs
First, I have points. Lots of points. There should be ton of them scored here, although ultimately TCU will score more. As much as I like West Virginia and Grier, the Horned Frogs are absolutely cooking. Hill looks much like the guy we saw for his first three games at Texas A&M, and the defense has held up quite well against good offensive teams. I don't see this being a blowout, but give me TCU.
Kerry Miller — Follow @kerrancejames
TCU wins, but not by nearly as much as Vegas is suggesting it should. The Horned Frogs have a great offense, but they allowed more than 6.8 yards per play against SMU and Oklahoma State over their past two games. Meanwhile, West Virginia has scored at least 56 points in each of its last three games. This one goes back and forth with a ton of points before TCU wins by a one-possession margin.
Brad Shepard — Follow @Brad_Shepard
I'm impressed with this WVU offense with Grier at the helm. They were impressive in a season-opening loss to Virginia Tech, but the Mountaineers haven't been tested since. Now, they're traveling into a hostile environment in Fort Worth where Gary Patterson has his Horned Frogs playing well. The difference here will be TCU's veteran defense. It made Mason Rudolph look human, and it'll humble Grier as well. This will be a close game, but the Frogs win.
Greg Wallace — Follow @gc_wallace
In a week rather devoid of top-flight matchups, this should be a fun game. Both teams like to throw the ball and score plenty, averaging a combined 96.6 points per game. Grier has been a revelation under center for West Virginia, and Hill hasn't been shabby while keeping TCU's offense humming, either. I like the Horned Frogs here, as they've shown they can at least hold down a high-powered offense (Oklahoma State) while scoring plenty themselves. Gary Patterson's bunch keeps rolling Saturday.
Will This Finally Be the Week a Top-10 Team Loses to an Unranked Opponent?
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Matt Hayes
Why not Michigan State beating Michigan? The loss of QB Wilton Speight will make the Wolverines a different team. Speight may not do everything right, but he makes big plays in clutch situations. John O'Korn must prove he can do it consistently. What better place than a rivalry game?
David Kenyon
No, but Wisconsin on the road at Nebraska is worth monitoring. Maybe Paul Chryst has ended the trend, but past Wisconsin teams usually had one nonsensical loss to an average Big Ten opponent. It doesn't get more average than Nebraska this season, and a night game in Lincoln after the Cornhuskers' best win of the year is a precarious situation.
Adam Kramer
We're long overdue for one of those weekends where sensibility goes out the window, but I don't know if it will come here. If we're being honest, the early part of the college football season has been sort of a snoozer and somewhat predictable. I believe that will hold true for at least one more Saturday, though. I could see Michigan-Michigan State being close, and it wouldn't shock me if Nebraska gives Wisconsin a scare. But nothing else jumps out. For the record, I hope I'm wrong. I hope the whole thing explodes and you can look back at this and tell me how wrong I was. That would mean we're back in business.
Kerry Miller
I say no, but if it is going to happen, No. 4 Penn State at Northwestern is the most likely culprit. Penn State has not been particularly solid on the road over the past two seasons, and Northwestern has done a fine job of defending the run recently. But there's a fine line between slowing down Bowling Green and slowing down a bowling ball like Saquon Barkley.
Brad Shepard
It's no fun to say "nah," but there aren't many options that look feasible. Still, I think in a rivalry game, you can often throw out records, and emotions (i.e., hatred) can play a huge role. That brings me to Michigan-Michigan State. In case you didn't know, these teams don't like each other. Though the Spartans haven't been themselves in the past year-plus, they're 3-1 this season, and Mark Dantonio's team has shown signs of life. The Spartans struggled earlier this year against Notre Dame and now hit the road for the first time, going to the Big House. Watch this one for an upset, but I still think the Wolverines pull it out late.
Greg Wallace
It's been a quiet season so far in terms of seismic upsets, and you have to wonder whether it's just a matter of time before we get a game that rocks the Top 10. One to watch is No. 7 Michigan hosting Michigan State. This is an intense rivalry, and Michigan State has already matched its win total from a year ago. Michigan's offense wasn't exactly humming with Speight at the controls, and now the Wolverines must find a way with O'Korn running things. I think the Spartans could pull a surprise in the Big House.
Does Florida State Get Back to .500 with a Win over No. 13 Miami?
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Matt Hayes
It's hard to believe, but FSU is worse on the offensive line than it was last year, when QB Deondre Francois absorbed way too much punishment game after game (including last year's Miami game). If FSU doesn't get the line figured out soon, QB James Blackman—who throws a nice ball and is much better than the poor protection has allowed him to show—will be in the same position Francois was in last year. And Blackman doesn't have the bulk to absorb the blows like Francois did.
David Kenyon
Florida State surrendered 17 tackles for loss against Wake Forest, and Miami's front seven is more talented. Malik Rosier has been a pleasant surprise, and his mobility gives the 'Canes a dimension Brad Kaaya never offered. And except for one throw (one really good throw), FSU freshman James Blackman Jr. has understandably relied on quick-hitting routes. Miami should be able to limit FSU's offense and end the seven-year skid. (This also means the 'Noles are probably going to steal a win, because rivalries are weird like that.)
Adam Kramer
The contrarian in me says absolutely. The other part of me—the one who has watched a great deal of these teams over the past month—says no. I do believe this game will be close, and that you'll see the Florida State offense improve. But Miami has looked excellent, albeit against teams that it should look excellent against. The health of Miami running back Mark Walton is a story to follow, as his involvement could be key. I'll say the Hurricanes win, although it comes down to the final few minutes. The opposite outcome would not surprise me at all.
Kerry Miller
This Seminoles defense is nowhere near what I thought it was going to be. After giving up 365 yards in a loss to N.C. State, Florida State gave up another 367 in a near-loss to Wake Forest. And if you can't slow down John Wolford, you probably aren't slowing down Rosier and Walton. I'm picking Miami to win in a close one, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricanes turn this into a bit of a blowout. And no, that's not entirely because I'm bitter that my FSU CFP pick went up in flames in Week 1.
Brad Shepard
No way. I thought Duke would beat the Hurricanes a week ago, and Miami rolled into Wallace Wade Stadium and pummeled the Blue Devils 31-6 on Friday night. Coach Mark Richt's team is legit. The Hurricanes have talent and swagger in the defensive front seven, and Walton has been a revelation. A win over Wake Forest doesn't mean FSU is back. There are still deep-rooted issues. The 'Canes will win this rivalry game by two scores.
Greg Wallace
Last week was huge for Florida State. The Seminoles, 0-2 for the first time since 1989, faced adversity at Wake Forest but went on the road for a gutty 26-19 victory. That had to be huge for the confidence of Blackman, who was forced into the lineup following Francois' season-ending knee injury. Miami will be a tougher challenge, but the Seminoles have owned the 'Canes with seven consecutive victories in the Sunshine State rivalry. With a potential tropical storm bearing down on Tallahassee and Walton battling through an ankle injury, FSU will extend the streak to eight in grind-it-out fashion.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
What Will Sam Darnold Do to Oregon State After His 1st Loss in More Than a Year?
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Matt Hayes
Let's make it simple: He'll throw for 300-plus yards and four TDs, and USC will win by four or five touchdowns. Last week was a tough spot for USC, going against a much-improved Washington State defense in a wild environment and a short week. It all caught up to the Trojans. They get back on track this week.
David Kenyon
Oregon State is probably the ideal opponent for a rebound game after the Trojans lost at Washington State. The Beavers have allowed 8.6 yards per pass attempt and 15 total touchdowns while managing just four interceptions. Darnold should complete 65 percent of his passes for 250-plus yards and three scores in a painless home win.
Adam Kramer
Judging from recent history, he'll probably turn the ball over at some point. It's been strange to watch him struggle at times, considering how brilliant he looks at others. Still, he should post enormous numbers against this team, and I'm thinking he throws for more than 325 yards and four touchdowns. I expect to see more of the player we thought we were going to see all year long. And yes, mark him down for one interception.
Kerry Miller
Darnold could not have asked for a better opponent for a bounce-back game. Oregon State has allowed opponents to complete 70.1 percent of their pass attempts this season and have allowed the sixth-highest defensive passer rating in the nation, per CFB Stats. I've been outspoken about not buying Darnold as a Heisman candidate, but he is going to go off in this one. Probably something in the vicinity of 425 yards and five touchdowns before Clay Helton finally calls off the dogs.
Brad Shepard
He's going to take out a lot of frustration. We all jumped the gun a bit on Darnold, anointing him as a high NFL draft pick after he came off the bench and helped the Trojans turn things around a year ago. This year, he's played like an inexperienced redshirt sophomore. He's turning the ball over way too much, and he doesn't look ready to take the leap to the pros. But the Beavers are awful, and Darnold is still talented with a lot of quality weapons around him. He'll eclipse 300 yards and throw for at least three scores.
Greg Wallace
Last Friday night was one to forget for Darnold. He ran for his life most of the night behind a makeshift offensive line and struggled in a loss to Washington State. Oregon State is the perfect salve for his wounds. The Beavers allow 46.4 points and 288 passing yards per game and haven't played anything resembling defense this year. Put Darnold down for 300 yards and four touchdowns as USC rebounds.
Who Wins the Battle for the State of Michigan?
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Matt Hayes
I'll take Michigan, but like I said earlier, it won't be as easy as it should be. Michigan State will play hard and with pride in this game; there's no team the Spartans want to beat more. The problem: MSU isn't as good defensively as the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff teams, and the power run game has vanished because of a struggling offensive line.
David Kenyon
John O'Korn is a real wild card. He had a forgettable start last season but was surprisingly superb in relief two weeks ago after Wilton Speight exited with an injury. But O'Korn will basically determine whether the Wolverines' margin of victory is seven points or 17. The Spartans will struggle to move the ball consistently enough on Michigan's excellent defense.
Adam Kramer
Given the way Michigan's offense has struggled to manufacture points, I like O'Korn as the starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. In this particular game, where touchdowns might be hard to come by, his ability to scramble and extend plays could be the difference. I think this will be ugly—also, Michigan State might be rounding into form—but these are the kinds of games Michigan is almost comfortable in. Wolverines by 10ish.
Kerry Miller
Michigan has been demoralizing opponents with its defense, allowing a nation-best 203.3 yards per game. And while a lot of per-game numbers are inflated by some weak competition, there's a decent chance that all four of Michigan's opponents (Florida, Cincinnati, Air Force and Purdue) end up qualifying for bowl games. This D is for real, and I'm not so sure about MSU's O. The Wolverines win a game that ends up being a race to 20.
Brad Shepard
You have to like the way quarterback Brian Lewerke is bringing the Spartans back to respectability. Also, it seems like the Wolverines' offensive struggles have them teetering on the brink of losing a game they shouldn't. But the Wolverines are one of those teams that rise to the occasion, and their defense is legit. This is going to be an ugly, low-scoring game in the Big House that will go deep before it's decided. But Big Blue will survive another close one, and the young guys will grow up a little more.
Greg Wallace
I think that Michigan State is turning a corner from an ugly 2016 season, and Michigan has been anything but impressive offensively. With a backup quarterback under center in O'Korn, the Wolverines will sputter just enough and Michigan State will show that Mark Dantonio can't be counted out, scoring a 20-13 upset in Ann Arbor.
Will There Be Any Coaches Fired This Weekend?
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Matt Hayes
No. Get back to me in two weeks after Alabama hangs 40-plus on Tennessee in the third Saturday in October, and there will be a different answer to the same question.
David Kenyon
No, but next week may be a different story. Of the coaches with the hottest seats, Butch Jones, you'd think, would've been canned shortly after losing in Week 5 instead of during a bye. Same goes for Mark Whipple at UMass. And nobody reasonably expects Kevin Sumlin to beat Alabama. Perhaps if A&M loses 66-3, we'll need to revisit this conversation, but I say everyone is safe for another week.
Adam Kramer
Unless a booster is going to emerge this week with a big ol' buyout check in the range of $10-15 million, I don't see it. I thought Tennessee might pull the trigger Sunday, although the bye week, which the Vols can't lose (so we think), means Jones is safe for a while longer. Sumlin won't be fired when Texas A&M loses to Alabama—that wouldn't be fair or right. And LSU won't possibly make a move now. A loss for Bret Bielema against South Carolina wouldn't be great, but again, not fire-worthy. Maybe it comes at a smaller, lower-profile job, but I believe the big decisions will come later this year.
Kerry Miller
Tennessee has the day off, and even Jones couldn't lose to a bye week. If he was going to get fired, it would've happened by now. The other SEC coach all over the hot seat has been Sumlin, but as long as A&M doesn't lose 100-0 to Alabama, wins in the past four weeks may have bought him at least a few more weeks. But I believe there will be a firing, and my guess is it's either BYU head coach Kalani Sitake or Oregon State head coach Gary Andersen. Or maybe LSU's Ed Orgeron if things get really bad against No. 21 Florida.
Brad Shepard
Tennessee is off this weekend, so the Vols have another week to work things out with Jones, who desperately needs to beat South Carolina next week to have any chance of hanging onto his job. So, how about the other SEC coaches on the hottest seats? If Sumlin gets embarrassed at home against Alabama this weekend, that may be the final straw. Considering the Tide have outscored two SEC opponents 125-3, that's a distinct possibility. But I'll go with Missouri canning Barry Odom after another lopsided loss at Kentucky. If a coach is going to be let go this week, it'll be Sumlin or Odom.
Greg Wallace
I think Jones is a dead man walking following the 41-0 no-show at home against Georgia, but the Vols are off this weekend. If UT wanted to pull the plug, it would have done so by now. Sumlin and Texas A&M are in for a potentially ugly night at No. 1 Alabama, but I still think it'd be hard to fire a coach who's 4-2 at midseason. LSU fans probably want to fire Ed Orgeron, but a $12 million buyout says he hangs around for at least another year. I think it's a quiet weekend overall on the coaching carousel.
Which Team Pulls Off the Most Surprising Upset of the Week?
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Matt Hayes
The upset isn't happening at Clemson this week, but there absolutely could be a letdown. Every championship team has one mediocre week—Clemson's last year was at home against Pitt—and that game could be this week against a strong Wake Forest team in need of a win after last week's crushing late loss to FSU. Again, no upset. But it might be tricky in the second half.
David Kenyon
Give me SMU, a 6.5-point underdog at Houston. The Mustangs stunned the Cougars last season and have even more playmakers on offense this year. Houston won't let this AAC clash turn into a track meet because the defense is still formidable, but inconsistency at quarterback will be the Cougars' downfall.
Adam Kramer
By point-spread standards, this won't be much of an upset at all, but the optics will say otherwise. I think LSU—yes, that LSU—upsets Florida this week after paying Troy nearly $1 million for a homecoming loss. (For starters, I don't think Troy is as bad as people believe. I also don't believe LSU can play much worse.) For a slightly spicier upset, I'll take Utah over Stanford at home. Even that isn't all that spicy, I know. The hot takes will come eventually, promise.
Kerry Miller
I don't see any major upsets happening this week. Stanford should beat No. 20 Utah, but the unranked Cardinal are actually the Vegas favorites in that game. One somewhat significant dog that might win, though, is 1-3 Air Force at 4-0 Navy. They play a similar style, Navy hasn't beaten anyone of note yet and the Midshipmen might be peeking ahead to the next two against Memphis and UCF.
Brad Shepard
Nobody is talking a lot about SMU and head coach Chad Morris, who quietly has the Mustangs at 4-1 and playing quality football. Not only are they scoring, they've proven they can play physical, too. This is a good team whose only loss is a 56-36 setback to TCU. They now go on the road to Houston, and Cougars star defensive tackle Ed Oliver is a game-time decision. Not only do I like the Mustangs to cover; they'll win outright.
Greg Wallace
Washington State showed it must be taken seriously with a home upset of then-No. 5 USC, the Cougars' first regular-season win over a Top 5 team since 1992. There's no time for the Cougars and prolific quarterback Luke Falk to relax, however. They're No. 11 in the new AP poll but must travel to Oregon, which is 4-1 and rejuvenated under new coach Willie Taggart. Emerging star quarterback Justin Herbert is out with a fractured collarbone, but the Ducks will show the nation that they won't be down for long, leaning on standout senior tailback Royce Freeman and bringing Mike Leach and Wazzu back to reality with a surprising defeat.
Who Has the Best Late-Night Showing: Bryce Love, Rashaad Penny or Jake Browning?
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Matt Hayes
How about another 200-plus yards for Bryce Love? The Utah defense hasn't played well this fall in four nondescript games (North Dakota, BYU, San Jose State, Arizona), and the Utes haven't played an offense that can pressure them. Stanford will, and Love will have another huge game to bring down another unbeaten.
David Kenyon
Bryce Love and Stanford head to Utah, which has ceded the eighth-lowest per-carry average in the country. Love is sensational, but that's a tough road matchup. And although Jake Browning is at home vs. Cal, it's hard to pick against Rashaad Penny. He's topped the 100-yard mark in five straight outings, while UNLV has allowed an 80-yard rusher in all four games.
Adam Kramer
While I picked Utah to upset Stanford, how can you not take Love here at this point? The guy is an absolute monster and is on Barry Sanders-like pace at the moment. Even though I do like Utah to win outright, look for Love to total about 175 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. For him, that's about average at the moment.
Kerry Miller
I picked against Love last week on this question and he went haywire, so I'm going to do his Heisman campaign a favor and pick against him again. Give me Penny against a UNLV defense that gave up 309 rushing yards to Howard back in Week 1 and that ranks 120th in the nation in total yards allowed per game. Penny gets too many touches to not eventually break off a couple of big plays against the Rebels.
Brad Shepard
After his 301-yard performance against Arizona State last weekend, who is betting against Love? Love always wins. Love is all you need. OK, I'll stop. Still, this is a player who replaced Christian McCaffrey and may wind up winning the Heisman Trophy his predecessor never did. Yes, he's going against a quality Utah defense, but if he gets to the second level, no Ute can outrun him. This looks like a game where he'll have some tough sledding but break multiple big ones, too.
Greg Wallace
They're all in position to rack up big stat lines. Love is coming off a 301-yard rushing night, but the bet here is that Penny will tear through UNLV's run defense, which allows 192 rushing yards per game. The Rebels gave up 54 points to Ohio State two weeks ago, and SDSU should feast on their defense. Put Penny down for 200 yards and two scores.
Mulligan Time: Who Are Your New Picks to Make the College Football Playoff?
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Matt Hayes
Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Penn State. I absolutely believe in Washington, but the Huskies must win every game. Their schedule—with Rutgers, Montana and Fresno State as non-conference games—will not look good against another one-loss champion from another conference. If Washington and Oklahoma both have one loss, the decision is easy. The team that won on the road against Ohio State over the team that played three nonconference cupcakes.
David Kenyon
I'm sticking with Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State, but I'm sliding Clemson in for USC. It should be obvious why Alabama is in there, and Clemson shouldn't need much explanation following a sensational September—and the injury to Deondre Francois. Oklahoma can still afford one loss in Big 12 play and recover with a victory in the conference championship game, and I believe Ohio State will run the table.
Adam Kramer
Thank you for allowing me to do this. I believe I will gladly take this mulligan and be on my way. Give me, in order, Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Washington. The team I actually feel guiltiest about leaving out is Georgia, believe it or not. Kirby Smart's team looks superb at the moment. My top three feel solid enough for now, especially Alabama and Clemson. I'm sure when we are allowed another mulligan in a month or so, however, I will gladly take it.
Kerry Miller
My picks before the season were Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and USC, so, yes please, I'll hit the reset button. I'm definitely sticking with the Crimson Tide and adding Clemson to the list. It's a tough call on the other two, though. Georgia was No. 3 in my Top 25 ballot this week, but I can't see this SEC getting two teams in. And I do not trust Oklahoma's defense to get the Sooners through the season without at least a loss or two. So, give me Alabama, Clemson, Washington and Penn State, and put me down for another mulligan at the start of November.
Brad Shepard
Three out of four ain't bad. I'll stick with my trio of Alabama, Penn State and Oklahoma. But my longtime USC pick looks like a clunker, so I'm going to replace the Trojans with Clemson. I never expected the Tigers to look this good on offense, and that defense is straight nasty. Georgia could sneak in there, and Washington is playing well, too. But I'll go with the Crimson Tide, Nittany Lions, Sooners and Tigers.
Greg Wallace
The first two picks are obvious. Alabama has outscored its first two SEC foes 125-3 and appears to be on a different level than almost everyone nationally. Clemson just keeps rolling with a group of new offensive characters, led by quarterback Kelly Bryant and a nasty defense that has keyed three Top 15 wins in September. It's hard to see anyone challenging the Tide or Tigers the rest of the way. Oklahoma is the clear class of the Big 12, and senior quarterback Baker Mayfield is a steady leader who'll guide the Sooners to the third CFP spot. The fourth? Penn State looks battle-tested, but like last year, the Big Ten East's balance will bite the Nittany Lions along the way. Washington and Jake Browning beat USC in the Pac-12 title game to take the final berth.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
