5 NBA Offseason Predictions We Got Very Wrong
More than one crystal ball was broken during the 2017 NBA offseason.
When the defining word for the summer is "unpredictable," you can probably imagine how the summer treated hoops prognosticators.
Except, you don't have to imagine it. We took the liberty of self-assessing by searching our floors for all the predictions we tossed at the wall that didn't stick.
There's not as big of a mess as we thought, so cheers to us. But these five forecasts never came to fruition.
Paul Millsap Stays in ATL
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The Prediction
Josh Martin predicted the Atlanta Hawks and Paul Millsap would be the best option for one another.
The Rationale
Before Millsap signed with the Hawks in 2013, he was just another face in the Western Conference frontcourt crowd. But his ticket to the East was also his path from anonymity to All-Star recognition. He was selected to the midseason classic during all four years in Atlanta and even shared the conference's Player of the Month award in Jan. 2015 with his fellow starters after an absurd 17-0 month.
As his then-employer, Atlanta could offer Millsap more than anyone in free agency. And with teams more conscious about spending this summer than last, Martin figured the Hawks would put the best deal in front of the five-tool forward.
What Actually Happened
The Denver Nuggets swooped in with a three-year, $90 million offer and another movement-based offensive system seemingly perfect for his skills.
And the Hawks responded by not responding.
"It was pretty simple," Millsap told Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "Denver, they came and they've been wanting me for years. They made that known. ... Atlanta decided to go another direction. They didn't want to make an offer. So it was pretty simple."
Now, the Nuggets are hoping to construct a playoff team around the Millsap-Nikola Jokic tandem. The Hawks, on the other hand, are finally committed to a rebuilding project that could take years to complete.
Bulls Run It Back
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The Prediction
Dan Favale thought the Chicago Bulls brass would give Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo a second season to figure things out.
The Rationale
At the time, the eighth-seeded Bulls were holding a 2-0 series lead on the top-seeded Boston Celtics. Butler was the best player on the court, Rondo was somehow "Playoff Rondo" again and Wade gave Chicago another late-game closer.
The Bulls looked like their best-case scenario. If executives thought this could be a winnable group when it was first assembled in July 2016, then seeing it come together should have solidified that belief.
Besides, it would cost money to tear apart. Only opting out of a $23.8 million option or later reaching a buyout could get Wade out of town, while it would take $3 million to waive Rondo.
What Actually Happened
Rondo went down with a broken thumb, and Chicago's lead evaporated without him. Zero wins and four losses later, the Bulls were bounced from the postseason—a scenario Favale had cautioned could change their plans.
That's precisely what happened.
Butler was shipped out to the Minnesota Timberwolves (and old friend Tom Thibodeau) on draft night for a youth-forward return. Rondo received his $3 million walking papers shortly thereafter and later latched on with the New Orleans Pelicans. Wade and the Bulls found the right buyout amount, and the future Hall of Famer rejoined banana-boat buddy LeBron James on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Bulls are left sorting through spare parts to see what's worth keeping and hoping they don't win too much to spoil their efforts of finding a potential savior.
"There's no team better equipped to tank itself into opportunity," The Ringer's Haley O'Shaughnessy wrote. "And by opportunity, I mean the right to pick Marvin Bagley III."
Gordon Hayward Goes MIA
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The Prediction
Chris Roling had Gordon Hayward unable to resist the siren song of Pat Riley and the Miami Heat.
The Rationale
For all of Hayward's reasons to stay with the Utah Jazz, a move to Miami or Boston would upgrade his market and chances of escaping the conference.
In South Beach, specifically, he'd also grab complete control of the offense. It wouldn't be slow and steady like it was in Salt Lake City, but rather built around running and gunning. The primary scoring role would be Hayward's to have, something the Celtics couldn't offer with Isaiah Thomas coming off a 28.9 points per game effort.
Hayward would also be putting his future in the hands of a championship-proven architect in Riley. With LeBron James approaching his 33rd birthday, the door to Eastern Conference control should theoretically open to everyone else sooner rather than later.
What Actually Happened
Hayward did head east—which he saw as the smart move given the wealth of talent out West—but traveled north to Boston to reunite with his college coach, Brad Stevens.
"He was the person I knew I could count on the most," Hayward wrote on the Players' Tribune. "... That unfinished business we had together, back in 2010, when I left Butler for the NBA...as far as I'm concerned, all of these years later, we still have it—and that's to win a championship."
The Heat always looked like long shots, since they didn't have established relationships like the Jazz and Stevens did. But Miami made its presence felt, emerging as an early favorite with the lifestyle, coaching and prominent scoring role all appealing to Hayward, sources told The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor.
Once Miami missed out on its top target, it shifted its focus to re-signing its own free agents. The Heat's biggest external addition wound up being a former Celtic—Kelly Olynyk, who inked a four-year, $50 million deal.
Paul George Gets Purple-and-Gold Wish
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The Prediction
Kevin Ding thought the Los Angeles Lakers would acquire Paul George in a trade for future picks and Jordan Clarkson.
The Rationale
Before the 2017 free-agency market opened, George had already shared his 2018 plans. He would be leaving the Indiana Pacers and was hoping to become a Laker, sources told Adrian Wojnarowski, then with The Vertical.
George's declaration dramatically shifted leverage. The Pacers lost most of what they had, since potential trade partners now viewed him as only a one-year rental. And the Lakers gained a substantial amount, as they didn't have to do any deal if they just wanted to wait.
With George's trade market seemingly watered down, a picks-plus-Clarkson package sounded like a reasonable price. Future assets wouldn't be needed if adding George meant building a superteam, and Clarkson could be sacrificed for a return that rich.
What Actually Happened
The Oklahoma City Thunder deemed George worthy of a gamble, nabbing him for the bargain price of Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis.
While George still doesn't hide his Lakers interest, he says nothing will sway him more than the standings.
"It's all about winning," George told Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins. "I want to be in a good system, a good team. I want a shot to win it. ... If we get a killer season in Oklahoma, we make the conference finals or upset the Warriors or do something crazy, I'd be dumb to want to leave that."
The Thunder have since added Carmelo Anthony and extended Russell Westbrook. The Lakers, meanwhile, have kept their 2018 books as clean as possible to make a run at multiple stars, whether George is included or not.
LAC's Big Three Becomes a Big One
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The Prediction
Ryan McCrystal predicted two superstar exits from the Los Angeles Clippers, with Chris Paul joining the San Antonio Spurs and Blake Griffin going to the Houston Rockets.
The Rationale
For the last few years, the Clippers have looked in need of a reset. With Paul and Griffin both able to enter the 2017 market, this seemed like the summer to do it, particularly on the heels of consecutive first-round exits.
Paul, McCrystal opined, would be searching for the best potential championship path. The 32-year-old set a dubious record in April for the most career playoff games without a conference finals appearance, per ESPN Stats & Info, and the lack of team success can distort one's view of his resume.
If Paul left, then Griffin felt like a flight risk (and vice versa). The Clippers needed both—and probably more—to maintain any hope of title contention.
What Actually Happened
McCrystal was halfway right.
A star left L.A. for Houston, only it was Paul instead of Griffin. The latter signed a five-year, $173 million deal to stay and try to compete alongside DeAndre Jordan.
Clippers coach Doc Rivers said Paul left "because he wanted to be with James Harden," per Brad Turner of the Los Angeles Times. A source close to Paul told The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears, "Chris believes that Houston gives him the best chance to win now."
The Rockets, who would also later land P.J. Tucker and Luc Mbah a Moute, have been pegged by B/R and Vegas as the West's No. 2 team. The Clippers, who lost a bunch but added Danilo Gallinari and Patrick Beverley, among others, could be fighting for their postseason lives.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats from Basketball Reference or NBA.com.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
