B/R's 2017 MLB Postseason Primer: Your Complete October Viewing Guide
We've placed so many expectations on Washington, D.C., lately, and so little is getting done that it's embarrassing.
We've expected results. We've gotten nothing.
We've waited for significant achievements. We've received little but empty promises and jingoism.
TOP NEWS
Assessing Every MLB Team's Development System ⚾
.png?w=256)
10 Scorching MLB Takes 🌶️
Yankees Call Up 6'7" Prospect 📈
And...
Whoa, whoa, whoa! Hold on just one stinkin' patriotic moment there, Uncle Sam. You say you're sick of politics? You've come to the right place. We're not talking politics here! We're talking Washington Nationals baseball!
As the calendar flips to October and the leaves turn a goldish red, here comes our favorite month. And as we step into the first October in our lifetime in which the Chicago Cubs are the defending World Series champions (unless you're 108 years old as you read this, and we're guessing that's not the case), no team in this postseason tournament is close to tasting the pressure the Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers are chewing.
The Nationals have won the National League East in four of the past six seasons, produced the best record in the majors in 2012, employ some of the game's marquee stars in Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg...and have not won a single playoff series since they moved to D.C. in 2005.
The Dodgers boast the game's largest payroll, produced a run for the ages this summer (31-4 turned into 46-8 and 56-11, and a 91-36 start), employ the ace many think is the best pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw, won their fifth consecutive National League West title...and have not won the World Series since 1988.
But it goes beyond that for one of baseball's jewel franchises: Forget the not winning part. Amazingly, the Dodgers haven't even played in a World Series since 1988.
The Nationals this month will be playing to a background of all sorts of noise regarding their closing window. Harper and Strasburg won't last forever, and Harper will be a free agent after next season. Outfielder Jayson Werth's contract is up after this season, and man, has he looked broken down since coming back from a foot injury.
In Washington in recent years, we've seen infighting (Jonathan Papelbon choking Harper in the dugout) and witnessed broken promises (Harper's reaction upon hearing Max Scherzer signed was to wonder where his World Series ring was). We've seen administrations change (Matt Williams was fired as manager two years ago, Dusty Baker's contract is up after this season, and the Nationals haven't addressed it).
The only thing missing on the diamond in the shadow of Capitol Hill is a filibuster or something, right?
So yes, pressure. Immense pressure, and no small part of the intrigue this month will be witnessing how Harper, Kershaw, Scherzer, Yasiel Puig and the rest of the Nationals and Dodgers handle it.
Welcome to October, and all those crisp, wild baseball nights that go with it. The only thing we can promise is that the only thing that will not come with pumpkin spice this month is the baseball itself.
But we guarantee that come month's end, at least a handful of teams will be lost in some field with Linus and Snoopy, awaiting a Great Pumpkin that will never come.
That's Not a Good Omen
Despite finishing with baseball's best record and earning home-field advantage throughout the month, the Dodgers will be trying to buck history. Here's what manager Dave Roberts, rookie wunderkind Cody Bellinger and the rest of the Artists Formerly Known as the Big Blue Wrecking Crew will be navigating around: No team has ever endured a losing streak as long as 10 games (and the Dodgers' this summer reached 11) and won a World Series.
The longest?
Could the Numbers (This Season) Be Pointing in Nats' Direction?
Regarding their National League Division Series against the Cubs that starts Friday: The Nationals won the season series 4-3 this summer.
Washington and Los Angeles could advance to play in the National League Championship Series, and they split six games this year.
Best Division Series Matchup: Individuals
Quick, order the pizza delivery now: Aces Chris Sale and Justin Verlander will oppose each other as the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros launch their American League Division Series on Thursday in Houston. Talk about a must-see Game 1 matchup.
Both Sale and Verlander are American League Central ex-patriots, with Boston having acquired Sale from the Chicago White Sox in a blockbuster trade at the winter meetings in December and Houston having traded for Verlander in a deal with the Detroit Tigers in August.
They faced each other April 10 in Detroit, with Verlander's Tigers edging Sale's Red Sox 2-1. While Verlander came away with a no-decision (one unearned run, three hits, four strikeouts and two walks over seven innings), Sale was tagged with the loss (two earned runs, five hits, 10 strikeouts and one walk in 7.2 innings).
Added oddity: The Red Sox and Astros finished the season with a four-game series in Boston, so when they pick up in the Division Series it will mean at least seven consecutive games against each other, if not more. That hasn't happened since 1991, when the Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays played each other eight consecutive times—three games to finish the season followed by a five-game ALCS, which the Twins won to advance to that year's World Series against Atlanta.
Best Division Series Matchup: Teams
Easy: The Cubs opening defense of their World Series title against the habitually disappointing Nationals.
We've catalogued Washington's list of challenges above.
Chicago, meanwhile, has done everything the hard way this year, and facing Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez, who quietly had a sensational season, in Games 1, 2 and 3 will continue that trend.
Sidelight bonus: Maybe in their down time this series, Cubs star Kris Bryant can work on recruiting Bryce Harper to sign with Chicago as a free agent following the 2018 season. Right?
Justin Verlander Already Sold on the Astros
He helped pitch Detroit to a World Series in 2006 and led them to another World Series in 2010. When Houston clinched two Sundays ago, Verlander, now 34, acknowledged that what he's learned over the years is "it happens so quickly. You can forget about it so quickly. You have to do a better job of enjoying it."
Asked how good this Houston team is, Verlander's response was telling in two ways: First, about these Astros and, second, in highlighting a weakness in those Tigers teams.
"Man, it's hard to say," Verlander told B/R. "It's one of the best teams I've seen, one of the best I've played against and one of the best I've been a part of. The thing that's the most exciting is this club has the ability--every single player—to take the extra base, to do the little things. … Those things are all super-important. This is one of the most talented clubs I’ve been on.”
In Detroit, they had sluggers like Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, but those Tigers weren't nearly as athletic top to bottom as these Astros.
"At the end of all of it, you've got to win the World Series," Verlander said. "I've been on some pretty talented teams that won the American League."
Verlander paused, then grinned, continuing: "If we win the World Series, then I'll say it's the best team I've ever played on."
Why a Cleveland-Arizona World Series Would Be Fitting
The industrious Cleveland Indians set an American League record by winning 22 consecutive games from Aug. 24 to Sept. 15.
The determined Arizona Diamondbacks won 13 consecutive games from Aug. 24 to Sept. 6.
So as the streaks ran concurrently, this was going on:
The Indians, by the way, reeled off a 14-game winning streak from June 17 to July 1, 2016, and that worked out pretty well for them: In '16, they reached their first World Series since 1997 and pushed the Cubs into extra innings in Game 7 before, well, you know.
Slow Cooking and Fast Finishes
The World Series hangover is real: No team has won back-to-back World Series in nearly two decades, since the New York Yankees won three in a row from 1998 to 2000.
And if we get a World Series rematch between the Cubs and Indians, it will be the first Fall Classic rerun since the Yankees and Dodgers were the last two teams standing in 1977 and 1978 (sorry, Dodgers; the Yankees won both).
This year, it took both clubs seemingly forever to get going. The Indians were an MLB-best 53-15 since July 21 and gained 16.5 games in the standings in the AL Central. When that stretch started, Cleveland was a middling 48-45. And its rotation, the deepest among all playoff teams with Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin, ranked last in ERA in the AL at the end of April (4.78).
Coming off the adrenalin of a World Series, and anticipating another World Series, well, it can make those early-season games in April and May feel like little more than a nuisance, busywork before the main event.
"The beginning of the year was tough," Indians relief ace Andrew Miller told B/R. "It was like, Gosh, we've got to play so long just to get another shot."
Since the All-Star break, Cleveland's 55-20 mark was the best in the majors. So was the pitching staff's 2.78 ERA.
And talk about hangovers and fast finishes: The Cubs were 25-27 on June 1 and trailed the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. They were 43-45 at the All-Star break and trailed the Brewers by 5.5 games.
Now? They are the first defending World Series champion to win their division the following season and reach 90 wins since the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies went 93-69. Those Phillies, after defeating Joe Maddon's Tampa Bay Rays in the 2008 World Series, lost the '09 Series to the Yankees.
Let's Talk Droughts
As you may have heard, last year's Cubs snapped a 108-year drought in winning their first World Series since 1908. So how do this year's October entrants stack up?
The Indians now own the game's longest drought: 68 years and counting. They last won a World Series in 1948, over the Boston Braves. (Hey, at least this drought isn't so long as to involve the Boston Beaneaters!)
The Nationals do not own the game's longest drought simply because they played in Montreal until 2005, but the city of Washington, D.C., hasn't won a World Series since 1924, back in the days of the Washington Senators of Walter "Big Train" Johnson.
The Astros came into the game as an expansion franchise in 1962 and have never won a World Series.
The Colorado Rockies came into existence as an expansion franchise in 1993 and have never won a World Series.
The Minnesota Twins haven't won a World Series since 1991, during the days of manager Tom Kelly and ace Jack Morris' incredible Game 7.
The Dodgers, as noted above, haven't won a World Series since 1988.
On the flip side...
The Red Sox last won in 2013 and have won three World Series since 2004. The Curse of the Bambino, smashed.
The Yankees last won in 2009.
The Diamondbacks last won in 2001.
Bold Moves and Lasting Images: American League Edition
New York added starting pitcher Sonny Gray at the July trade deadline. Cleveland added right fielder Jay Bruce in August. Minnesota added Big Sexy himself, Bartolo Colon, in early July (before acquiring Jaime Garcia and then flipping him to New York and then trading All-Star closer Brandon Kintzler to Washington on July 31, when the front office seemingly waved the white flag). Boston made no major trades of significance (unusual for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski) but did send a Panda packing (Pablo Sandoval) and called up rookie phenom Rafael Devers from the minors.
But the move that will turn out to be the most significant of all this month is Houston's addition of ace Justin Verlander. He is 5-0 with an astounding 1.06 ERA in five starts for the Astros and already has pitched in two World Series for the Tigers, in 2006 and 2012.
"I've faced him in the playoffs before and it's no fun," right fielder Josh Reddick told B/R. "He's a guy who's pitched in the World Series and knows how to win.
"And the good thing about having Justin Verlander is that we have him for two more years."
Bold Moves and Lasting Images: National League Edition
The Cubs bolstered their rotation at midseason with Jose Quintana. The Dodgers did the same with Yu Darvish at the July deadline. Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo did magnificent work in fixing a bullpen that has been problematic for years by acquiring Kintzler, Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. The Rockies added depth to their bullpen with Pat Neshek and to their lineup with catcher Jonathan Lucroy.
But the Diamondbacks stole the show with their acquisition of outfielder J.D. Martinez, who is absolutely destroying pitchers in much the same way that a Hummer destroys gas mileage: His 16 home runs in the month of September were tied for the most in National League history with Ralph Kiner (1949), according to ESPN Stats & Info.
Overall with Arizona, Martinez smashed 29 homers in 62 games.
"Adding a guy like J.D., not only what he's done on the field, but he's fit in perfectly with us," Diamondbacks setup man Archie Bradley told B/R. "His first week here, it was like we had him all year. At the time we got him, right after the All-Star break, we knew we were a playoff team, but we also knew what the Dodgers were doing."
With Martinez in the season's second half, Arizona is 7-2 against Los Angeles. Look out.
Fun With Run Differential
If you're into it, and you should be, here's how the postseason teams stack up:
American League:
- Indians +254
- Yankees +198
- Astros +196
- Red Sox +117
- Twins +27
National League:
- Dodgers +190
- Diamondbacks +153
- Nationals +147
- Cubs +127
- Rockies +67
For context, the clubs with the best run differential going into last season's playoffs were the Cubs (plus-252) and Red Sox (plus-184). The Indians, who won the AL pennant, were second to Boston in AL run differential at plus-101.
Why (Fill In Your Favorite Team Here) Will Win It All This Month
Dodgers:This team was 91-36 at one point this season, so it must be dominant, right?
Indians:Kluber and Carrasco are as good a one-two punch as there is, and Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez are producing hits more consistently than Shonda Rhimes.
Astros:Verlander and Dallas Keuchel can answer Kluber and Carrasco, and in Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer and Co., Houston's youth and athleticism will play big.
Nationals: Finally, a bullpen that can hold postseason leads. And Harper, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman lead a lineup that most will have difficulty pitching to.
Diamondbacks: Good luck pitching to Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, and don't underestimate starting pitcher Robbie Ray, especially should he face the lefty-challenged Dodgers.
Red Sox: Baseball's best wipeout closer, Craig Kimbrel, has struck out nearly half (126) of all batters he's faced (254) this season. And that outfield of Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts is as good an all-around outfield as there is: They hit, they field, and they win.
Cubs: Hey, look; they're not carrying around 108 years of baggage. Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and teammates have gotten hot and should be playing free and easy again.
Yankees: Baby Bombers Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and Co. will bludgeon you to death while back-end relievers Dellin Betances, David Robertson and Aroldis Chapman bring the heat.
Rockies: Leadoff man Charlie Blackmon hits everything in sight, and third baseman Nolan Arenado catches everything in sight.
Twins: After the front office gave up and became a seller in July, those in the clubhouse banded together in a classic "stick it to the man" move that workers frustrated by their bosses everywhere can appreciate.
Why (Fill In Your Favorite Team Here) Will Not Win It All This Month
Dodgers: This team lost 16 of 17 at one point, so it must be falling apart, right? (Its middle relief already has, so good luck with the bridge from the starters to closer Kenley Jansen.)
Indians: Left fielder Michael Brantley's ankle still isn't right, center fielder Bradley Zimmer is out with a broken hand and starting pitcher Danny Salazar's elbow remains questionable. And is Andrew Miller past his episode of knee tendinitis? He is, right? Right? Right?!
Astros: They would be so much stronger with a fully healthy Lance McCullers Jr. spinning those curveballs all night long.
Nationals: They're the Nationals. They do not win playoff series!
Diamondbacks: Fernando Rodney is their closer.
Red Sox: Ace Chris Sale is untested in October and is looking fatigued already, and David Price never gave the Boston rotation the depth it expected this summer.
Cubs: Jake Arrieta's strained hamstring still isn't completely healed—he told reporters in early September he couldn't drive off his right leg as strongly as he'd like. Jon Lester has been up and down, John Lackey is at the end of his career, and Maddon still can't even decide on a Game 1 starter. Kyle Hendricks, likely.
Yankees: Luis Severino, their best young pitcher, is about 30 innings beyond his career high, and you wonder how much further he can stretch. Especially in the high-leverage outings of October.
Rockies: How do you win with a rotation of Jon Gray, German Marquez, Chad Bettis and Tyler Chatwood?
Twins: Hello, wild-card matchup: Ervin Santana is 0-5 with a 6.43 ERA in six career starts in the new Yankee Stadium.
Prediction
Coming out of spring training, I had the Indians winning the American League and the World Series.
(Let's all pause and admire my intelligence and wisdom!)
Coming out of spring training, I had the San Francisco Giants winning the National League.
(Let's all pause to talk about, Hey, can we maybe forget that and not figure I'm a moron? Pretty please?)
So, naturally, I'm going to stick with one of those as we launch October...and let's call it Indians over Nationals in six.
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
