Fantasy Football Week 1: Examining Trade Market for Top 100 Flex Players

You've completed your fantasy drafts, the NFL season is just about to kick off and...you're thinking about making trades already?

Of course you are. A great fantasy owner never rests on his or her laurels. 

So with the most intrepid fantasy owners among us in mind, I've compiled my first trade value rankings of the season. Now, this list is going to look fairly similar to many preseason rankings you've seen, since the season hasn't begun and we don't have an idea of how a player's value might fluctuate. As well, we'll be focusing on players who can be utilized in the flex slot (RB, WR and TE) on this particular list.

Any player not listed has a trade value of one. The trade values are simple: If a player has a value of five, for instance, any trades you accept should return you a player or package of players that either equals five or exceeds it. This is a general ranking based on standard leagues—your own personal team needs or league scoring quirks obviously could affect the values on a case-by-case basis.

Keeping that in mind, let's get to it.

Trade Value: 11

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1. David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals

2. Le'Veon Bell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

These two, in my opinion, stand alone from a value perspective. They are virtually guaranteed to be productive players at a combustible position. If you have them, get rid of them only if someone blows you away in a trade. If you want them, be prepared to offer up a fortune. 

Ezekiel Elliott would be in this tier were it not for his pending six-game suspension. If he is able to push back that suspension, he may not even serve it this year. Monitor that situation closely.

Trade Value: 10

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3. Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

5. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

6. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

The top wideouts fall just below the top two running backs because they don't have quite the ceiling either Johnson or Bell possess from a total points perspective. Still, these four represent the safest bets in all of fantasy of the remaining players on the board, and they are certainly in a tier all by themselves at wide receiver.

Trade Value: 9

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7. LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills

8. DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans

9. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

10. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Running back value has become pretty volatile in recent years, so securing a reliable RB1 is huge for your team. That makes players like McCoy, Murray, Gordon and Freeman valuable. They don't have the ceiling of the top two guys, nor the lack of question marks, but having one of these players on your team is a great start to your draft.

Thus, they also have high trade value and you should expect to give up a small ransom to acquire any of them.

Trade Value: 8

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11. Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins

12. Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears

13. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

14. Jordy Nelson, WR, Green Bay Packers

15. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

16. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

About this point is where we enter the "elite upside and high floor but legitimate question marks nonetheless" territory of the draft.

Ajayi had three monster weeks last year that totaled 87.2 points but only scored more than 10 points in two other games. Concerns about Chicago's offense leave Howard as a definite RB1 but with greater boom-or-bust potential than some of the other top options. Injuries remain a major concern for Green. Nelson is 32, so it's fair to question how much longer he'll remain a top producer.

Thomas has huge upside but he's a second-year player, and there are questions about whether he'll hit a sophomore slump or actually suffer without Brandin Cooks taking up a defense's attention. The tendency is to believe that becoming the team's top option at wideout can only be a positive. But there's always the possibility that opposing defenses will game-plan specifically to stop Thomas, while the addition of Adrian Peterson could mean that the Saints focus more on the run game than in years past.

And then there is Gronkowski. Without injuries, there's an argument to be made he could be in the top tier of this list. When he's healthy, he offers more of an advantage over the other players at his position than just about any player does at the other positions. His relative value is immense. But he's such an injury risk his trade value inevitably declines. 

If he stays healthy, however, that value will only increase.

Despite the question marks, these remain some of the top options for your team. But they don't quite have that elite, draft-them-in-the-first-round-without-question value that the previous players listed possess.

Trade Value: 7

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17. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys

18. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams

19. Brandin Cooks, WR, New England Patriots

20. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders

21. Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans

22. Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers

23. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts

I tend to value running backs a bit more than others might, especially ones in the RB1 and RB2 ranges, so players like Miller or Hyde may be higher than you would expect. My basis for this is that you can find far better value at wide receiver down the board than you'll find at running back.

Running backs are also a stabilizing force for your team. Where wide receivers can win you one week and disappear the next, solid running backs generally assure you'll get a steady drip of production. That, in turn, keeps you competitive in every matchup. Consistency isn't sexy, but neither is scoring 50 total points because your boom-or-bust wideout busted.

So players such as Miller and Hyde, assuming they play up to their potential, will help you win your league. That's why they find themselves in a tier alongside players like Cooks, Cooper and Hilton, who all have higher ceilings.

Gurley, meanwhile, exists in the land of pure potential after his disastrous 2016 season. He has tantalizing talent, but much of his production will depend on the rest of the Rams offense showing improvement. This evaluation, then, is banking on his talent inspiring a bounce-back season.

Trade Value: 6

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24. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

25. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

26. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

27. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns

28. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans

29. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

30. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

31. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

This is probably the most interesting tier to me. There are players like Baldwin and Kelce who are pretty safe bets and fall into their proper tier on the value chart. But this group is mostly all about ceiling.

Fournette and Cook have major talent but we have no idea how they'll hold up over an NFL season. Jeffery could potentially put up WR1 numbers, but his health concerns and the fact he's operating with a second-year quarterback in Carson Wentz make him a gamble. Crowell took a big step forward last year, but can he take another? And will Duke Johnson eat into his production?

Will Hopkins return to form after a disappointing 2016 season? Are you willing to place your confidence in Tom Savage?

There is a ton of upside in this group. Some of these players could win you your league if you project them correctly. Until we have a clearer picture, however, their true value remains somewhat in limbo and outside of the top rankings.

Trade Value: 5

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32. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers

33. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers

34. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

35. Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

36. Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders

37. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos

38. Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers

39. Terrelle Pryor, WR, Washington

40. Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

41. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

42. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers

43. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

44. Jordan Reed, TE, Washington

This group is pretty similar to the tier above it, albeit perhaps with less overall potential. But there are players I absolutely love in this group, namely Benjamin and Hill. McCaffrey, Mixon and Hunt all have intriguing upside as well, and Reed would be way higher on this list were it not for his injury concerns.

To me, after this group is where you start to see the upside shrink and the question marks loom larger. Many of these players may end up outgrowing this ranking, fewer will be bumped down and most will probably remain right around this valuation.

Trade Value: 4

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45. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Oakland Raiders

46. Ty Montgomery, RB, Green Bay Packers

47. C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos

48. Sammy Watkins, WR, Los Angeles Rams

49. Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions

50. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

51. Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

52. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos

53. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions

54. Bilal Powell, RB, New York Jets

55. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks

56. Jarvis Landry, WR, Miami Dolphins

57. Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts

58. Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is an interesting tier that has a combination of players who are safe bets to reach a limited ceiling and players with excellent upside but major question marks. These are the guys you are looking in the fifth or sixth rounds of your fantasy draft and the picks you need to nail.  

That also makes them some of the most difficult values to discern. Do you place more value on potential or reliability? 

Look at Martin. Were he not suspended, he'd assuredly be a top-15 running back. But you have to decide just how much value he'll have when he returns since you won't have him available for three weeks. If you think he'll be an RB1, he has more value than this. If you think he'll only be a flex option, he has less. And if, like me, you think he'll be a high-end RB2 upon his return, he's accurately valued.

This tier, for me, is a group of players I would be willing to include alongside a slighter better player to package for one elite or top guy. But outside of Graham and Martin, this tier is devoid of exciting upside. 

Trade Value: 3

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59. Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

60. Adrian Peterson, RB, New Orleans Saints

61. Eric Decker, WR, Tennessee Titans

62. Mike Gillislee, RB, New England Patriots

63. Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings

64. Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington

65. Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

66. Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans Saints

67. Brandon Marshall, WR, New York Giants

68. Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

69. Pierre Garcon, WR, San Francisco 49ers

70. Devante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

71. Paul Perkins, RB, New York Giants

72. DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

73. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings

74. Robert Kelley, RB, Washington

Yes, there is a certain theme to this group of players: What will their role be this year?

Peterson and Ingram may split carries right down the middle. Gillislee could be LeGarrette Blount 2.0, or he could be Brandon Bolden 2.0 in New England (especially considering a healthy Dion Lewis is a dangerous playmaker). Kelley could easily lose his job to Samaje Perine. We don't know how much value players like Marshall, Jackson, Decker or Garcon will have in new offenses. Coleman has a ton of upside but also is behind Freeman on the depth chart.

All of these players have clear upside and could easily surpass this valuation. But for now, there are enough question marks to be cautious.

Trade Value: 2

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75. Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens

76. Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens

77. Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts

78. LeGarrette Blount, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

79. Tyrell Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers

80. Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans

81. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Baltimore Ravens

82. Eddie Lacy, RB, Seattle Seahawks

83. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

84. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

85. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

86. Martellus Bennett, TE, Green Bay Packers

87. Kenny Britt, WR, Cleveland Browns

88. Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers

89. Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers

90. Mike Wallace, WR, Baltimore Ravens

91. Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings

92. Jordan Matthews, WR, Buffalo Bills

93. Duke Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns

94. Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns

95. John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals

96. James White, RB, New England Patriots

97. Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions

98. Darren Sproles, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

99. Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions

100. Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets

Not much to say here.

These players have slight value compared to every other player remaining on the board, but it isn't much. Yes, there are players who could exceed this valuation with breakout seasons—Moncrief, Coleman, Brown and Johnson come to mind—but for now they need to prove themselves before you consider them valuable.