San Francisco Giants: Final 2017 Trade Deadline Predictions, Fact or Fiction

Even though the San Francisco Giants have famously achieved their recent postseson glory in even years, they typically haven't cratered in odd seasons.

One of the game's sturdiest franchises has finished the past eight years with three championships, four playoff appearances and seven winning records. They're now in danger in clocking fewer than 70 regular-season victories for the first time since 1996.

Already facing a comically large National League West deficit, a perennial buyer must now alter their deadline approach. Late Tuesday night, they sent their most obvious trade chip, Eduardo Nunez, to the Boston Red Sox for pitching prospects Shaun Anderson and Gregory Santos.

Acquired by San Francisco in a midseason move last year, Nunez was hitting .308 with 18 stolen bases prior to his departure. Now that's he gone, the Giants holster no desireable veterans on expiring contracts to flip before Monday's non-waiver deadline.

Since they're unlikely to begin a full-scale rebuild during a year mostly played without ace Madison Bumgarner, the Giants may now stand pat. Yet if possible, they should pawn at least one of their expensive, underperforming veterans to prevent last place from becoming their long-term residence.

Let's take a look at what's left for them to accomplish this summer.

Team Needs

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SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 21: Hunter Pence #8 of the San Francisco Giants hits an rbi double scoring Brandon Crawford #35 against the San Diego Padres in the bottom of the first inning at AT&T Park on July 21, 2017 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by

Any Young Talent

According to Baseball-Reference.com's weighted average age, the Giants have the fifth-oldest lineup and the ninth-oldest pitching staff. Not much help is on the way; Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter ranked their farm system No. 25 last month.

The Giants need any young talent they can find.

They've had their championship fun, but they peaked. Bumgarner and Buster Posey remain worthy franchise cornerstones, and Brandon Belt is one of baseball's most underappreciated players. Beyond them, too many key contributors are trending in the wrong direction.

Outfield

It's possible the Giants make moves for 2018 rather than exchanging their limited trade chips for fringe prospects. In that case, they will eye an outfielder.

The bottom has fallen out on Hunter Pence, and center fielder Denard Span—the unit's steady rock this season—turns 34 before next year's Opening Day.

ESPN.com's Buster Olney suggested moving Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija for Jacoby Ellsbury, another highly compensated veteran who has lost his starting spot in a crowded New York Yankees outfield. He'll turn 34 in September and earn over $21 million in each of the next three seasons, so such a move would compound San Francisco's problems. 

Salary Relief

The Giants should instead try to shed some salary. They began 2017 with the largest Opening Day payroll in franchise history, but Cueto, Samardzija, Pence, Matt Cain and Mark Melancon have not provided a proper return on investment.

Aside from Cain, whose has a $21 million club option they can buy out for $7.5 million, they're all on the books next year. Cueto can opt out, but it's less likely with him currently injured and sporting a 4.56 ERA.

Belt and Brandon Crawford, currently earning a combined $12.2 million, will respectively make $17.2 million and $15.2 million once their four-year extensions kick in. It's one thing for a title contender to aggressively spend, but management should feel less enthused about allotting all this money to a fading roster.

If they're lucky, someone will be charitable and take a flier on Pence. Trading Cueto and/or Samardzija, however, are more feasible scenarios.

Top Trade Chips

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George Kontos could be an unheralded bullpen target for someone seeking a low-cost upgrade.

SP Johnny Cueto

Having an ERA (4.59) over a full run above his career norm (3.32) doesn't help Cueto's trade value. Nor does sitting on the disabled list with blisters. Or the fear of him terminating his contract and walking in the winter.

Or the fear of him staying and making $21 million per year into his mid-30s. 

There are many obstacles to trading Cueto, and trade murmurs faded once he hit the shelf. If he soon returns and rattles off an effective start or two, don't sleep on a possible waiver transaction.

Cueto compiled a 2.73 from 2011 to 2016, so contenders can forgive his first-half woes if healthy. Since enormous salaries for productive pitchers is the norm, someone with deep pockets would foot the bill.

If nothing happens this summer and Cueto doesn't opt out, the Giants should then peruse the offseason market.

SP Jeff Samardzija

Samardzija is at least healthy, and under a ghastly 4.85 ERA lie pretty peripherals. 

The 32-year-old righty has registered 146 strikeouts and 17 walks in 135.1 innings, giving him a 23.0 strikeouts-minus-walks percentage which ranks fifth among qualified starters behind Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw.

"Shark" is also on pace to make 30 or more starts for the fifth-straight season. Durability played a major role in San Francisco awarding him a five-year, $90 million contract heading into 2016.

If the Giants wanted to sell Samardzija, they'd find willing buyers despite his poor run prevention.

OF Hunter Pence

Perhaps someone can look past Pence's dreadful 2017 and hope the energetic outfielder who recorded an .808 OPS last year resurfaces. He's currently providing sub-replacement value and will make $18.5 million next year, so don't count on it.

RPs Cory Gearrin and George Kontos

Moving a reliever or two is probably the most likely midseason move after selling Nunez. Hunter Strickland is a popular subject of trade speculation, but Cory Gearrin and George Kontos are more realistic candidates.

Gearrin has posted a 2.30 ERA despite an underwhelming 39 strikeouts and 25 walks in 47 frames. Yet the right-handed pitcher has induced a 53.3 ground-ball rate over his career and limited lefties to a .268 slugging percentage in 2017. 

Teams searching for high strikeout rates will favor Kontos, who has accrued 53 punchouts in 49 innings with a 3.67 ERA. Two more years of arbitration make both intriguing low-level acquisitions to round out a bullpen. 

The Dream Scenario

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SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 14: Johnny Cueto #47 of the San Francisco Giants pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at PETCO Park on July 14, 2017 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)

Unloading Cain and Pence are probably fantasies, so the realistic scenario is trading Cueto for a return befitting his track record.

Jose Quintana's 4.49 ERA did not prevent the Chicago White Sox from receiving a massive prospect haul from the Chicago Cubs. The circumstances are different, as the southpaw is younger and employed on a team-friendly contract. Yet it shows organizations don't always let recency bias cloud their judgement. 

Cueto won't command an Eloy Jimenez-type star, but he would still yield an impressive package if not for health concerns. Perhaps someone seeking a rotation boost (Cubs, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Houston Astros) will take the risk anyway.

Signing Cueto made sense for a postseason mainstay, and the move paid divdends last year. But San Francisco must face the hard truth of its uncertain future.

A 31-year-old hurler with ample mileage on his arm isn't the safest bet to hold up, and they can't afford to get stuck under another bad contract.

Fact or Fiction on Latest Rumors

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The Giants are reportedly open to moving Jeff Samardzija.

Bumgarner, Posey and Crawford Only Untouchables

Last month, Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi identified Bumgarner, Posey and Crawford as the only three Giants players off-limits. 

The fact they're not entertaining offers for Bumgarner and Posey is hardly a surprise. A frequent postseason hero, Bumgarner will turn 28 on Tuesday and is under team control for two more seasons. There's logic to trading a 30-year-old catcher before he regresses, but Posey means too much to the franchise. Moving him would also demand an unapologetic rebuild. 

Depending on how one looks at it, either Crawford is a strange inclusion or Belt is a curious seclusion. The former is 30 and having a brutal year at the plate, but selling high is rarely wise. 

But would they move Belt? He sports an .816 career OPS with plate discipline and gap power that age better than pure power. Although nobody should expect him to change places this summer, it's plausible someone could blow them away with an offer if they're listening.

Verdict: Fact

Giants 'Open' to Moving Cueto and Samardzija

After moving Nunez, Olney said the Giants "are open to talking about Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija in deals."

That's not quite a major commitment. Even the Los Angeles Angels would be open to talking about Mike Trout if the Los Angeles Dodgers offered Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger.

It would be irresponsible of Giants general manager Bobby Evans not to explore the trade market for his two veteran starters. He also, however, shouldn't push either workhorse out the door for pennies. Since 2012, Cueto and Samardzija respectively rank No. 15 and 20 in WAR among starting pitchers. 

Such moves would signify the dawn of a new era, but Evans can seek major league-ready contributors and clear some payroll to re-enter the free-agent market. While both aces should bounce back, the franchise would face grave danger if they stay put and sink deeper.

Verdict: Fact

Final Deadline Predictions

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The Giants are more likely to move reliever Cory Gearrin than Cueto or Samardzija.

Expect an ultimately unsatisfying deadline for the Giants, who won't press the "rebuild" button just yet.

Nunez was the only rental they needed to move, and they did. Any ensuing transactions hinge on their 2018 expectations.

Appearing on MLB Network Radio last week, Evans expressed his preference to build around his core (Bumgarner, Posey, Belt, Crawford and Joe Panik) still in the age 28-30 tier.

"We still think there's a lot that they can offer to help us get back to where we need to be," Evans said. "With that said, we got to do more defensively in the outfield, more offensively in the lineup. And we got to pitch better."

Untimely blisters will hamper a Cueto deal. If they expect Samardzija's superb strikeout and walk rates to yield better success, they might be better served letting him boost his value for the offseason. Getting shelled twice by the San Diego Padres didn't help his stock.

This leaves Gearrin and Kontos as the most probable trade options, so expect one or both to play out the summer elsewhere. They would make the most sense for American League fringe contenders such as the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins, but the Washington Nationals can still use more bullpen reinforcements.

Any franchise-altering decisions will wait until the offseason, when the Giants must decide if they're ready to lay the foundation for necessary long-term renovations. 

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract info obtained via Cot's Baseball Contracts.