Boston Red Sox: Final 2017 Trade Deadline Predictions, Fact or Fiction

The Boston Red Sox may have a relatively quiet trade deadline compared to their championship competitors.

One of baseball's busiest front offices since Dave Dombrowski took over as team president no longer possesses the minor league firepower to make major blockbusters.

While they should address some needs in order to preserve their slight American League East lead, most of those spots don't require major rennovations.

Besides, there are few available stars at their areas of interest. The New York Yankees hurt their rival's cause by snatching Todd Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the Chicago White Sox.

Yet the Red Sox shouldn't enter August empty-handed. One or two mid-tier upgrades, particularly in their bullpen and corner infield, would put them on the right path to the postseason.

As Monday's non-waiver deadline approach, let's look at their needs and examine the latest buzz before predicting their plans.

Team Needs

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Boston can use another bat despite promoting top prospect Rafael Devers.

Third Base

One way or another, Boston needed a change at the hot corner.

Damaged by Pablo Sandoval's porous play, no team has sewn a worse OPS at third base than the Red Sox. The position's futility compelled them to promote top prospect Rafael Devers, a 20-year-old who batted .311/.377/.578 with 20 home runs in Double-A and Triple-A—but mostly the lower level—this season.

His arrival wouldn't halt their search entirely. Although he's a possible future cornerstone, there's no guarantee he clicks immediately. Recall last year, when Yoan Moncada struck out 12 times in 20 plate appearances.

Frazier would have been Boston's best bet, but Eduardo Nunez, David Freese and Asdrubal Cabrera are possible low-cost contingency plans. The organization can also get creative and try sliding over second baseman Ian Kinsler or shortstop Zack Cozart. 

Relief Pitching

Although their bullpen entered Tuesday night boasting baseball's fourth-best ERA, it's still the spot most likely to receive reinforcements. 

Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree and Fernando Abad have created a relatively smooth road to closer Craig Kimbrel, but none are bankable options in a tight postseason situation. With the importance of relief pitching amplified in the playoffs, they should seek a high-leverage upgrade.

Pat Neshek or Addison Reed would give the unit a major boost. Justin Wilson, Brad Hand and Zach Britton would cost far more to attain, making the rentals preferable targets.

Catcher

Few teams have received worse offensive production behind the plate than Boston, but Sandy Leon and Christian Vazquez are both stout defensive catchers. Dombrowski must beware the trade-off before pursuing any outside assistance.

Alex Avila is the best available option. His .887 OPS would signify a massive offensive upgrade, but he's a step down in terms of framing pitches and managing staff.

Long regarded as an elite offensive and defensive catcher, Jonathan Lucroy has hit four homers with a .295 on-base percentage while graded as Baseball Prospectus' worst pitch-framer.

Because of cost and his ability to also help as a first baseman or designated hitter, Avila would make a bit more sense.

First Base/Designated Hitter

Mitch Moreland, who is playing through a broken toe, is hitting .143 (9-for-63) in July with one extra-base hit (a double) in 74 plate appearances. These struggles could motivate Dombrowski to seek another bat.

Hanley Ramirez can play first base if needed, but any acquired slugger would likely be better suited to field than Boston's current designated hitter. Lucas Duda, Matt Adams or Yonder Alonso would offer a short-term power spike, and any of those lefties would take a seat against southpaws to make room for Chris Young.

Since Moreland hit well before July's swoon, it's a low priority unless the team is worried about his health. The Red Sox could also again address the issue in-house by bringing Sam Travis back to the majors to at least platoon with Moreland.

Top Trade Chips

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Brian Johnson threw a complete-game shutout in his second career start.

3B Michael Chavis

Devers should be 100 percent off limits, and now is a poor time to trade 18-year-old pitcher Jason Groome during his Class-A struggles. This leaves Michael Chavis as their clear top trade chip.

Hitting .306/.366/.602 with 24 homers during a breakout year, the 21-year-old climbed to No. 96 in Baseball America's midseason prospect rankings. The third baseman, drafted in the first round three years ago, is also blocked by Devers.

Per WEEI's Olivia Healy, Chavis isn't concerned about the position's competition: "As long as I play and he plays, we're both going to find our way to the bigs somehow so I'm not too worried about it."

Perhaps he does so in a different uniform, but the Red Sox shouldn't use him as trade bait for a mid-tier rental.

LHP Brian Johnson

Brian Johnson held his own in five major league starts, submitting a 4.33 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 27 innings. Two months ago, he tossed a complete-game shutout against the Seattle Mariners.

The 26-year-old southpaw has little left to prove in Triple-A, where he has made 44 career outings since 2015. Yet the Red Sox roster features too many starters for him to receive more than spot starts when the situation arises.

On a new team, he could at least get an opportunity to stick in a lesser rotation. Not all sellers are orchestrating long-term rebuilds; some will prefer an MLB-ready contributor under team control.

Although Johnson has a limited ceiling, he's an intriguing option for someone pawning off a reliever or a position player on an expiring contract.

RHP Mike Shawaryn

Mike Shawaryn continues to pile up strikeouts in the minors. Through 98 innings of Class-A, the 22-year-old righty has accumulated 130 punchouts with a 3.58 ERA.

As a result, he climbed to No. 8 in MLB.com's Red Sox farm rankings. Its scouting report, however, also wondered if he will wind up in the bullpen because of his high-effort delivery.

The 2016 fifth-round pick has already thrown five wild pitches and hit seven batters this season. Command issues could lead him to a relief path, but his lively stuff and strong frame still supports starting upside.

He's an intriguing, but far-from-untouchable prospect Boston can dangle for immediate bullpen help. While no pitching prospect is remotely safe, Shawaryn especially comes with a high level of risk and reward.

The Dream Scenario

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The New York Mets have a few veterans, most notably closer Addison Reed, who can help the Red Sox.

Frazier and Robertson would have been the Red Sox's dream scenario before the Yankees made it a nightmare. Mike Moustakas looked like the perfect fit before the Kansas City Royals soared into the playoff picture.

Perhaps landing Josh Donaldson or Manny Machado is the unrealistic dream scenario. In reality, their ideal deadline may bore some spectators.

Boston should leave July with a substantial reliever and a decent infielder or two. The New York Mets could solve their problems in one stop.

One of the game's best relievers since joining New York in a 2015 midseason trade, Reed has registered a 2.49 ERA with 48 strikeouts and six walks this season. He represents Boston's best setup fit after Neshek, but the Mets also have infielders to spare.

Wielding an .879 OPS and 17 homers in 74 games, Duda is a healthier version of Moreland. A quiet market for his services should mitigate his cost.

But why stop there? According to Boston Herald's Michael Silverman, the Red Sox are also eyeing Asdrubal Cabrera and T.J. Rivera. The Mets have little motivation to trade the latter, a productive hitter with multiple years of team control remaining, but they're unlikely to keep the former once he hits free agency this winter.

No longer able to handle shortstop, he's either an extra infielder for the bench or the starting third baseman if Devers falters. He has auditioned for the role by making his last two starts there.

Since they are all playing on expiring contracts, the Reed-Duda-Cabrera package shouldn't cost Chavis or another premier prospect. Shawaryn could instead headline a return that doesn't match the Yankees' haul but ultimately fills their needs.

Fact or Fiction on Latest Rumors

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There's speculation of the Red Sox seeking shortstop Zack Cozart to play third base.

Rumor: Boston Eyeing Zack Cozart

Before Boston promoted Devers, several analysts speculated outside-the-box solutions to their third-base problem. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal posed the idea of acquiring Kinsler or Cozart to patrol the hot corner, while Yahoo Sports' Tim Brown made the case for pursuing future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre. 

ESPN.com's Scott Lauber even suggested landing 36-year-old Jose Bautista to move back to third. 

Perhaps Rosenthal is on to something. Per CSNNE's Evan Drellich, the Red Sox "have been watching" Cozart. Maybe Xander Bogaerts could instead switch to third if this hypothetical scenario reaches fruition.

It's an interesting thought, as the Cincinnati Reds shortstop is superior to any available third baseman. The 31-year-old is batting .317/.402/.568 with 12 homers and 3.5 WAR, a clip topped by just 13 position players.

Before 2017's offensive outburst, however, he derived most of his value with his defense at the demanding position. Moving him from shortstop stymies some of his worth, especially if his bat regresses to the mean.

Unless he's too cheap to pass up, acquiring Cozart is a stretch after Devers' arrival.

Verdict: Fiction

Rumor: Red Sox 'Continue to Scout' Eduardo Nunez

A more feasible target is Nunez, who is hitting .308 with 18 stolen bases for the San Francisco Giants. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the Red Sox "continue to scout" the 30-year-old infielder.

Nunez would easily blend into any contender's roster. Although the defensive metrics aren't overly kind to his 2017 performance, he has played third base, shortstop and left field this season.

The Cleveland Indians or Kansas City Royals would make better use of his versatility. On Boston, he would either delay Devers' spotlight or relocate the rookie to designated-hitter duties. Neither is a bad idea for the right price.

Unless Machado, Donaldson, Moustakas or Beltre is unexpectedly put on the market, Nunez is the best third baseman available. While that doesn't necessarily mean Boston will land him, the club will at least seek San Francisco's asking price and determine if there's a fit.

Verdict: Fact

Rumor: Paying Close Attention to Pat Neshek

A robust market has developed for Neshek, who has relinquished five runs in 40.1 innings this season.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported the Red Sox among five contenders scouting the veteran sidearmer. MLB.com's Mark Feinsand refined the list of teams "scouting him closely" to the Red Sox, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Neshek makes sense for Boston, but he also makes sense for any contender. Having not allowed a run since July 1, he's a red-hot rental who can make a major impact without breaking the bank.

He also wouldn't require a huge financial investment to take on the remaining portion of his $6.5 million salary, per Cot's Baseball Contracts. That keeps frugal buyers like the Tampa Bay Rays in the hunt. 

The Red Sox may not win the crowded chase for his services, but they should be considered one of the prime finalists to complete a deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Verdict: Fact

Final Deadline Predictions

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Pat Neshek would be a welcome addition to Boston's bullpen.

They Still Add a Third Baseman

After examining an uninspiring trade market, Boston instead decided to give Devers a shot. They should still add another veteran, but we should expect a subdued transaction. 

Moreland ended June with an .818 OPS, so Dombrowski won't overpay for Alonso or Duda. Acquiring Cozart creates position uncertainty while buying a glove-first shortstop's career year. 

Nunez and Cabrera are the most realistic options. Since Nunez has third-base experience and is one of baseball's toughest players to strike out, he's the higher priority. 

Unless Devers rakes in the days before Monday's deadline, don't be surprised if the Red Sox still rent Nunez for a fringe prospect.

Prediction: Red Sox acquire Nunez

UPDATE: The Red Sox have reportedly acquired Nunez, per Rosenthal. This limits their search to relief pitching and a possible Moreland replacment. 

They Make a Bullpen Splash

There are plenty of bullpen options on the table. If the price is too high on one, they can simply chase someone else instead.

They need one high-leverage reliever. Burned by exchanging Travis Shaw for Tyler Thornburg last winter, Dombrowski will probably sidestep the market for controllable arms, especially if he's confident in Carson Smith eventually returning from Tommy John surgery.

It's worth pursuing Reed if he comes with another Mets infielder or two without costing Chavis. If not, Neshek is arguably a bigger immediate upgrade who could cost loss without the closer experience. Perhaps they also inquire about Phillies infielder Howie Kendrick for extra depth.

The Astros and Dodgers have the assets to instead deal for Wilson, Hand or even Britton. The Nationals may need to divert their attention elsewhere with Trea Turner hurt and Stephen Strasburg leaving his last start.

Plenty of teams will push for Neshek, but none should be as motivated to finalize a deal as the Red Sox. Look for them to bring him on board as the new eighth-inning option.

Prediction: Boston wins bidding war for Neshek

Note: All advanced stats, updated as of Tuesday evening, courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.