Predicting Progression, Regression for Dallas Cowboys' Top Players

The Dallas Cowboys held their first training-camp practice of the season on Monday, and they are less than 10 days away from their first preseason game of the year.

In 2017, the Cowboys will try to build on their 13-3 season from the previous year by advancing past the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time since 1995. 

In order for the Cowboys to improve on their 2016 season, they will need some of their young stars to continue to progress and hope that few of their veterans regress.

Here are my thoughts on which top players should be able to take the next step in 2017, and the ones who may take a step back this season.

Dak Prescott: Progression

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Not only was Dak Prescott the best rookie quarterback in 2016, he was one of the best in the league.

Prescott was thrust into the starting role after an injury to Tony Romo in the preseason and never looked back. So how can he improve on his 13-win, 105 passer rating season? By continuing to improve as a passer, the Cowboys will likely rely on him more to win games in 2017. 

It's important to remember that at this time last year, Prescott was battling with Jameill Showers for reps in practice. He was frequently the team's third quarterback and got just one or two live reps per practice during training camp. 

Despite limited practice reps during minicamps and training camp, Prescott was fantastic in his rookie season. He finished as the 13th-ranked quarterback in the Bleacher Report NFL1000 project and 11th according to Pro Football Focus. 

But now the Cowboys have had a full offseason to design an offense around Prescott. That and increased practice reps should allow him to grow as a passer fairly quickly. He threw for 23 touchdowns and over 3,600 yards last season, but expect those numbers to rise as he's given more control of the Cowboys' offense. 

It wouldn't shock me if Prescott threw for over 4,000 yards and 30 or more touchdowns in his sophomore season. It's his team now, and he no longer has to worry about Romo looking over his shoulder.

Expect a big jump in his play this season from Prescott. 

Ezekiel Elliott: Regression

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Before we get into any of the legal issues that could keep Ezekiel Elliott off the field, let's discuss his 2016 performance first. Even if he were to be on the field for all 16 games in 2017, it would be difficult to replace his production from his rookie year—he was just that dominant last season. 

Last year, Elliott rushed for more than 1,600 yards and just under 2,000 total yards in his first season. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry on his way to becoming the league's leading rusher. The last rookie runner to lead the league in rushing was Edgerrin James of the Colts, who did it in 1999 when he ran for 1,553 yards. 

Elliott could, and probably will, post another fantastic season, but it's tough to assume that he breaks the 1,600-yard mark for a second straight season. That has only happened seven times since 1970. 

There's also the possibility that some sort of suspension is handed down from the league office. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Cowboys are bracing for a short suspension. That was before the news of a possible incident involving Elliott in a nightclub. 

Between a possible suspension and the harder schedule in 2017 (the toughest in the NFL), it's unlikely Elliott will be able to repeat his dominant performance from the previous season. If he does, though, he will be one of the favorites to win the MVP award at the end of the season.

Dez Bryant: Progression

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It's been a rough past two seasons for Dez Bryant. In that time, he has caught just 81 passes on 168 targets (just a 48 percent catch in his last 22 games), and he's gained less than 1,200 yards as he's dealt with a poor quarterback and numerous injuries.

He just never looked like himself since his dominant 2014 season in which he led the league in touchdowns with 16. There have been glimpses of him getting back to 100 percent, but he just hasn't been able to put it together for long stretches. There's always been some sort of nagging injury that has limited him from becoming one of the best receivers in the league again. 

But Bryant is finally healthy and that's bad news for defensive backs around the NFL. Assuming he can stay healthy for 16 games in 2017, don't be surprised if he surpasses those two-year totals as he gets on the same page with Prescott.  

By the end of 2016, those two got hot, and it led to Bryant catching nine passes for 132 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers in the playoffs.

Assuming Bryant can continue his pace from the second half of his 2016 season, it should result in a massive season for him in 2017.    

Bryant turns 29 in November and this could be the best year of his career. All he needs to do is stay healthy and he should put up monster numbers despite numerous tough matchups this season.

Dallas needs—and expects—him to be a dominant receiver this year.

Jason Witten: Regression

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Despite signing a four-year extension this offseason, Jason Witten is a top candidate to regress in 2017.

Witten turned 35 in May and has been on a steady decline over the past few seasons. In 2016, he had the least amount of receiving yards of his career since his rookie season. He averaged less than 10 yards per catch and only scored three touchdowns all season. 

In 2016, Witten graded out as Pro Football Focus' 22nd-ranked tight end. He finished with an overall grade of 72.8, his second lowest score since 2006.

Witten will be on the field a ton for the Cowboys in 2017 but don't expect him to be a big part of the team's offense. 

With younger players such as Geoff Swaim and Rico Gathers figuring into the offense this season, it's fair to assume Witten may fork over some of his snaps to the younger players.

In any event, Witten is a Hall of Fame-type of player who is in the final years of his career. Instead of focusing on his declining play, try to appreciate how good he still is at the age of 35.

Cowboys' Offensive Line: Regression

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After the 2016 season, Pro Football Focus ranked the Cowboys as the second-best offensive line in football for that year. Only the Tennessee Titans graded out higher than Dallas.

However, Dallas lost two important pieces from that great offensive line; Ronald Leary and Doug Free.  

For those reasons, Pro Football Focus ranked the Cowboys as having the ninth-best offensive line entering the season. While that seems pessimistic, there is a strong chance the offensive line takes a step back as they adjust to two new starters in La'el Collins and whoever wins the left guard job. 

Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin should all be dominant players again in 2017, but it will be up to the two new starters to replace the two veterans who were lost this offseason.

There's a chance this group can eventually improve in time with Collins at right tackle and likely Chaz Green at left guard, but it's safe to assume the group may take a step back before taking a step forward.

Benson Mayowa: Regression

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Last offseason, the Cowboys signed restricted free agent Benson Mayowa to a three-year deal to help add depth to their depth chart at defensive end.

It was an up-and-down year for Mayowa, who was benched in November for lack of productivity. He finished the season playing just 381 snaps (36 percent of the team's snaps on defense). 

However, he led the team in sacks with six. He recorded four sacks in the team's final five games as he started to peak at the end of the year. But in 2017, Mayowa is competing for a roster spot as the Cowboys are deep with names at the defensive end position. 

Expect Mayowa to make the roster as the fourth or fifth defensive end, but it's highly unlikely he's able to replicate his pass-rush production in 2017.

Dallas should have a different sack leader in 2017, but Mayowa isn't likely to be it.