7 Bold Pre-Training Camp Predictions for New England Patriots
We usually have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the New England Patriots heading into any given season. Tom Brady will be the starting quarterback—at least when not suspended—and he'll be good. The Patriots will win the AFC East and at least at some point will be touted as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Oh, and the Patriots will make the playoffs. They've done so 13 of the last 14 years.
None of these are bold predictions, they're pretty much just accepted as Patriots facts. Yes, at some point the dominance must end, but it's not likely it happens this season. So we're not here to examine general, boring predictions, we're here to get a little more specific—and yes, bold.
Here are seven predictions about training camp, the preseason and the upcoming season involving the Patriots. Keep in mind we're not playing "what if" here, so there will be no calling for injuries, suspensions or other unexpected mishaps.
Stephon Gilmore Will Struggle in Training Camp
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The Patriots handed cornerback Stephon Gilmore a massive a five-year, $65 million deal that includes $40 million guaranteed this offseason. This is why some fans and media members are going to act like the sky is falling when he struggles in training camp.
This isn't meant as a slight against Gilmore and it isn't a prediction that he will struggle in the regular season. However, he's going to be a step behind the precise and proven Patriots offense when the starters face off in camp.
Gilmore will likely be matching up against guys like Brandin Cooks and Julian Edelman in camp, and those guys will be catching passes from Brady. Really, it would be tough for any pass-defender to look good in that situation.
Malcolm Butler might do well in camp because he's spent the last three years practicing against Brady and his brethren. It's going to take a major adjustment for Gilmore. The good news is that the 26-year-old seems to understand it's going to be a challenge.
"We just gotta go out there and prove ourselves every day; get better in practice you know?" Gilmore told NFL Total Access, per NFL Media's Conor Orr. "Every year it starts over and we gotta be hungry."
Expect the Patriots offense to feast on Gilmore early in camp.
Garoppolo Will Outplay Brady in the Preseason
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The overreactions will continue in the preseason when backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo outperforms Brady. This will happen for a couple of reasons; he'll be playing against lesser competition, and he's likely to see more preseason playing time.
There's also the reality Brady might not have all of the first-team weapons at his disposal. If a guy like Edelman or Rob Gronkowski is even slightly bruised, head coach Bill Belichick will probably keep him off the preseason field.
The end result will be that Brady will look fine, while Garoppolo looks even better. We saw it last year—Brady completed 54.3 percent of his passes and posted an 83.3 passer rating, while Garoppolo completed 66.7 percent and posted a rating of 95.1—and we're going to see it again this year.
The difference between last year and this is the fact Garoppolo was being prepped to start the 2016 season in place of Brady so many fans overlooked the preseason performances. This time around, we're going to get overreactions and suggestions that the Patriots should lock up Garoppolo and move on from Brady sooner than later.
Don't buy into those because Brady is going to be just fine once the regular season rolls around.
Malcolm Mitchell Will Win Third WR Spot
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The Patriots don't often rely heavily on rookies, but wideout Malcolm Mitchell earned a legitimate role in the offense last season. He finished the regular season with 32 receptions, 401 yards and four touchdowns. He also proved his worth in Super Bowl LI with six receptions for 70 yards.
Don't be shocked when the Patriots roll out the 23-year-old as their No. 3 receiver behind Edelman and Cooks this season. You might expect that role to go to veteran Danny Amendola or even 2016 acquisition Chris Hogan. Yet, it makes more sense to give the job to Mitchell.
The former Georgia man earned Brady's trust as a rookie in 2016. He's young and is going to be a part of the Patriots future. Hogan is better utilized as a deep threat, while Amendola may be seeing more time on special teams and less in New England's base offense.
When the Patriots look to move Edelman in the slot, it's going to be Mitchell taking his place on the outside.
"I like Mitchell to shine on the outside on the opposite side of Cooks," Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports recently wrote. "Remember, he overcame early injuries to still become a regular in this offense by midseason, and I believe he can double last season's output of 32 catches for 401 yards and four touchdowns."
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Burkhead and Gillislee Will Combine for at Least 1,300 Rushing Yards
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It's easy to believe that the Patriots' running game is poised to take a step back in 2017, as the team let starter LeGarrette Blount walk in free agency. He produced 1,161 yards rushing and 18 rushing touchdowns in 2016, which is pretty impressive.
Instead of re-signing Blount, the Patriots added Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee to the backfield. They join holdovers Dion Lewis and James White. However, White and Lewis are more proven as utility and receiving backs, so the bulk of the ground work will likely go to Gillislee and Burkhead.
The problem is that neither Burkhead nor Gillislee is a proven starter. Therefore, the running game has to suffer, right?
Wrong. It's actually going to be better.
Burkhead and Gillislee are more efficient and more explosive runners than Blount is. Given a similar workload, the two should be more productive over the course of the season.
Burkhead and Gillislee saw 175 carries between them in 2016 and combined for 921 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. If we expand their combined production to the 299 carries Blount saw in New England last season, it would be roughly 1,573 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Gillislee and Burkhead might not actually approach 1,600 yards this season, but don't be surprised when the duo rush for 200-300 more yards than Blount did a year ago.
Patriots Won't Clinch Division Until Week 16 at Earliest
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We've become used to seeing New England dominate the AFC East—they've done so in 13 of the last 14 seasons. We're also used to seeing the Patriots clinch the division relatively early in the season. Last year, they had the division in the bag after Week 15.
It's not going to be so easy to clinch early this year, the NFL schedule-makers made sure of that. Five of New England's final six games are against AFC East opponents. This means if a division rival is close in record, they will still have a chance at the division.
The Miami Dolphins are the team with the best shot at ousting the Patriots atop the division. They won 10 games last year, even though they were without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for three contests. It's ludicrous to believe that Miami will be a win or two behind New England when two division games are remaining on the schedule.
It wouldn't even be surprising to see the Dolphins earn a head-to-head win over New England in Miami in Week 14. The Patriots are 1-3 in Miami over the last four years.
The Patriots appear likely to win the AFC East again this season, but they aren't going to seal the deal until Week 16 or 17.
Brady Will Throw at Least 40 Touchdown Passes
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Brady has only topped 40 touchdown passes once in his NFL playing career, but he will do so again this season. With the weapons he has at his disposal, opposing defenses just won't be able to keep him out of the end zone.
With wideouts like Cooks, Mitchell, Edelman, Hogan and Amendola on the roster, Brady will be able to stretch the field and score from a distance. He will also have some tremendous red-zone targets in tight ends Gronkowski and Dwayne Allen. In addition, he should have a handful of touchdown passes that go to his running backs.
Now, you might wonder how the Patriots can feature a strong running game and still see Brady toss at least 40 touchdown passes. Well, consider this: When Brady produced a then-record 50 touchdown passes in 2007, running backs Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris combined for 1,219 yards rushing.
Gillislee and Burkhead will be a better duo than Maroney and Morris was, but Brady will still find the end zone at least 40 times through the air.
Brady Won't Win MVP
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According to our friends at OddsShark, Brady is an early favorite to win regular-season MVP honors in 2017. He currently holds 9-2 odds, one spot ahead of Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at 7-1.
Brady is going to have a tremendous season—perhaps even one for the ages. Yet, he isn't going to win the regular-season MVP, and there are two big reasons why.
The first is that there seems to be a general dislike for Brady and for the Patriots in general. Part of this probably stems from Patriots fatigue—folks are just sick of seeing New England win. Part of this will stem from the alleged deflated-football incident from a few years ago.
The second reason is that with so many offensive pieces around him, Brady won't be seen as that valuable.
Inevitably, someone is going to look at the 39-year-old and say "Garoppolo would be doing the same thing with these weapons" and it's going to hurt Brady's candidacy for MVP. Instead, voters will look at guys like Rodgers, Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr or Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'Veon Bell and say they were more valuable to their respective teams.
Let's just consider the fact that, for one reason or another, Brady has only won the MVP award twice during his illustrious career. He'll miss out again this year, though he isn't likely to care so long as the Patriots have a legitimate crack at another ring.
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