What Would Paul George Do for Every Suitor's Title Chances?
Everybody wants a piece of Paul George.
George has informed the Indiana Pacers he'll leave preferably for the Los Angeles Lakers in free agency next summer, which has prompted them to shop him around the league as a one-season rental, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski. This opens the door for contenders who otherwise don't have the assets to trade for superstars while remaining competitive.
Championship hopefuls can bank on their culture and proximity to the Golden State Warriors convincing George that early playoff exits with the Lakers are overrated.
Using NBA Math's FATS projections, which offer record forecasts based on a team's performance with and without a player, we can get a rough idea of how much better would every possible title-chaser be with George.
We'll generate how many wins the most important player of every trade package was worth last season. From there, we'll weight their additions by how many minutes they averaged per game, so that higher-volume players have a larger effect on projections. After that, we'll subtract the resulting number from George's impact on the Pacers (plus-13.4 wins) and tack on the remaining victories to each squad's 2016-17 record.
These forecasts presume the rest of the core will remain intact. It's an imperfect model, but it gives us a general idea in uncertain times.
Proposed packages are the best these contenders can offer within reason. None of them will be mortgaging the farm for a player who can flee next July. Drill that into your head.
Finally, the most important player of every trade will be the first name that appears in each package. For tricky cases, we factor in contract length and cost, age, last year's performance and future potential. Draft picks will never be cited first, even if they are the primary prize, because we can't predict the career arc of a player who doesn't yet exist.
The Impossibly Long Long-Shot Suitors
Los Angeles Clippers
2016-17 Record: 51-31
Best Realistic Trade Package: Sign-and-Trade Blake Griffin for Paul George
Wins Added: 4.3
Projected Record: 56-26
Signing and trading Blake Griffin in a deal for George unlocks the best possible version of the Los Angeles Clippers and allows them to surround Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan with three shooters at all times. And unlike other potential targets—cough, Carmelo Anthony, cough—they don't destroy their defense by rotating George between the 3 and 4. They improve it.
Don't hold your breath for this to go down, though. The Clippers plan on pursuing a similar scenario, according to the Sporting News' Sean Deveney, but they only enter the conversation if the Pacers keep George past the NBA draft and into free agency.
Even then, the Clippers are at a disadvantage. There is no financial incentive for Griffin in a sign-and-trade. He'll get the same four-year max that a half-dozen teams will offer him—admirers who won't be unloading their best player in the process.
San Antonio Spurs
2016-17 Record: 61-21
Best Realistic Trade Package: LaMarcus Aldridge, Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes and No. 29 pick for Paul George
Wins Added: 15.8
Projected Record: 77-5
And now: More proof that the San Antonio Spurs break everything.
LaMarcus Aldridge, according to FATS, actually hurt the Spurs' performance. This is neither a surprise nor entirely accurate. They barely skipped a beat during the regular season when Kawhi Leonard was on the sidelines. Their bench is too damn good.
Still, George in a starting five alongside Leonard and Danny Green has the makings of a 70-win team. The three of them are interchangeable from positions 2 through 4, and San Antonio just rattled off 61 wins with one of its least talented cores in recent memory.
Get a leap from Dejounte Murray or Davis Bertans, and this squad solidifies itself as the Warriors' foremost Western Conference threat. The returns of Patty Mills and Jonathon Simmons would make them that much scarier.
Again: The Spurs broke this projection. They aren't winning 77 games without a Kawhi clone.
Granted, this deal is almost out of the question. San Antonio seldom makes blockbuster trades, and Indiana has to be in love with an Aldridge-Myles Turner frontcourt to pick up the phone. And even if the Pacers are sold, the Spurs have eyes for free agent Chris Paul, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. They'll want to see how that mutual interest pans out before investing present-day assets into a confirmed flight risk.
Washington Wizards
2016-17 Record: 49-33
Best Realistic Trade Package: Markieff Morris, Kelly Oubre Jr., Jason Smith and 2019 lottery-protected first-round pick for Paul George
Wins Added: 9.0
Projected Record: 58-24
Consolidating assets into another star isn't at the top of the Washington Wizards' offseason to-do list. They need second-string pupils, and trading for George only eats into their depth.
At the same time, it's Paul freaking George. If you can meet Indiana's asking price without taking a stick of dynamite to your infrastructure, you at least think about doing it. And, well, Washington is trying to join the trading-block fray, according to NBA.com's David Aldridge.
The Pacers, as Aldridge said, are looking for a starter and two first-rounders. They aren't getting that outright—not when George has a basketball crush on the Lakers. But the Wizards can almost get there without touching Bradley Beal, Otto Porter Jr. or John Wall.
Markieff Morris is a bona fide starter with two years left on a phenomenal contract. He can absorb most of George's defensive responsibilities and soak up many of his playmaking responsibilities. Kelly Oubre Jr. is a first-round prospect with two seasons left on his rookie scale and a penchant for scrappy defensive sets. If the Wizards are confident enough in their ability to re-sign George that they'll include a protected first in 2019, even better for the Pacers.
Washington still won't have the depth to combat Golden State, but a Wall-Beal-George-Porter-Marcin Gortat starting five is about as good as it gets in the Eastern Conference. Plus, ring-chasing vets suddenly put the Wizards on their list of preferred landing spots if this blockbuster goes down.
Payroll schmayhole. Resulting roster costs shouldn't be an issue for a Washington squad that can wear "Who even are the Cavs?" warm-ups with a straight face.
The Maybe, Just Maybe Suitors
Oklahoma City Thunder
2016-17 Record: 47-35
Best Realistic Trade Package: Victor Oladipo, Enes Kanter and No. 21 pick (actual player) for Paul George, Monta Ellis and Al Jefferson
Wins Added: 2.3
Projected Record: 50-32
If the Oklahoma City Thunder are confident Russell Westbrook is sticking around and believe he'll do his damnedest to accommodate George, they can offer one helluva package once Victor Oladipo's new salary kicks in after June 30 ($21 million).
Oladipo, 25, attended Indiana University, so this is a quasi-reunion. And he's locked up through 2020-21. The Pacers have to like the sound of that. Equally important: They get out from under the Monta Ellis and Al Jefferson contracts by taking on the final two years of Enes Kanter's deal.
Bringing in George when he's on the verge of free agency isn't the Thunder's style. But the risk is minimal relative to the stakes. They'll be facing the luxury tax if they re-sign Andre Roberson (restricted), but that was true before. If by some twist of cruel fate both George and Westbrook leave as free agents in 2018, the Thunder can at least push forward without footing the bill for an overpaid Oladipo.
Next season's outlook would be superb if nothing else. A Westbrook-Roberson-George-Domantas Sabonis-Steven Adams starting five would rank among the best in the Western Conference. The Thunder will have to sign a backup playmaker on the cheap, but even with depth concerns, 50 wins feels like a pessimistic projection.
Toronto Raptors
2016-17 Record: 51-31
Best Realistic Trade Package: Norman Powell, DeMarre Carroll and No. 23 pick for Paul George
Wins Added: 15.2
Projected Record: 67-15
Losing Kyle Lowry for 21 games out of the All-Star break skews the Toronto Raptors' projections. They might be 15 wins better with George, but only because, at full strength, they were better than their final record.
Adding George would nevertheless be a boon for their Eastern Conference stock—provided Lowry returns. Multiple league sources told the Toronto Star's Bruce Arthur the point guard had "zero interest" in returning to Toronto as of mid-May. Lowry has since clapped back, suggesting this isn't a huge issue:
Giving up Norman Powell stings, but George more than makes up for his and DeMarre Carroll's departures. Besides, the Raptors can still re-sign one or both of Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker if they're not afraid of a miles-long luxury-tax bill.
Though there will be an offensive learning curve, George slides into the Raptors offense with relative ease. More than one-third of his shot attempts came off the catch last season. He'll need to up his number of assisted buckets, but Toronto wouldn't be asking him to reinvent his whole game by playing alongside Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Lowry, in particular, makes the transition a cinch, with his own willingness to function away from the action.
There's no one way for the Raptors to erase the gap separating them from the Cavaliers and Warriors. But George is the exact type of player they need if they're going to try—a combo forward who blends the best attributes of Carroll, Powell and Tucker.
The Watch Your Back, Other Suitors Suitors
Boston Celtics
2016-17 Record: 53-29
Best Realistic Trade Package: Terry Rozier, No. 37 pick, 2018 first-round pick (via Lakers, protected Nos. 2 through 5) or 2019 first-round pick (more favorable of Sacramento Kings or Philadelphia 76ers, top-pick protected) for Paul George
Wins Added: 16.3
Projected Record: 70-12
The Boston Celtics aren't interested in renting George, according to Basketball Insiders' Steve Kyler, but you can bet they're lurking. They're always lurking.
Picking up George for a fraction of his market value would be a Danny Ainge special. And Boston's team president will have the opportunity to do just that if the Cavaliers and Lakers bow out of these sweepstakes.
Carving out enough cap space to sign Gordon Hayward will be difficult if the Celtics land George before free agency, but it's not impossible—just really, really, ridiculously expensive, per 98.5 The Sports Hub's Brian Robb:
Forecasting 70 wins with George feels steep regardless of whether he's accompanied by Hayward. It'll be less. But 65 victories will be in play if the Celtics are starting George, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Al Horford and Isaiah Thomas, with Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, the No. 3 pick and possibly restricted free agent Kelly Olynyk coming off the bench.
Head coach Brad Stevens could spit out 50-plus wins and the East's top seed with much less.
In fact, he already has.
Cleveland Cavaliers
2016-17 Record: 51-31
Best Realistic Trade Package: Kevin Love for Paul George
Wins Added: 12.9
Projected Record: 64-18
Can Cleveland make a run at George when it doesn't have a general manager?
Sources told ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst the Cavaliers are parting ways with incumbent architect David Griffin. Owner Dan Gilbert confirmed the move and has already tabbed Chauncey Billups as a potential replacement, according to Wojnarowski. But rival teams expect Indiana to act fast, per ESPN.com's Zach Lowe. Cleveland doesn't have a lot of time to get it together.
On the bright side, sources confirmed to ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin that the Pacers reached out to the Cavaliers. This is a fairly big deal. They know the Cavaliers' only trade chip is Kevin Love or, much less likely, Kyrie Irving. They wouldn't engage if they weren't interested in him or prepared to suss out a third team to enhance the structure of a deal.
George is the ideal addition for a Cavaliers faction obsessed with challenging the Warriors. They need defensively interchangeable wings who stroke three-pointers and make plays off the bounce. George has enough catch-and-shoot experience to thrive next to James and, along with the four-time MVP, would give the Cavaliers a second all-world pest.
Does George alone render them title favorites? Not at all. But the outcome of Cavs-Warriors, Part IV, feels a lot less inevitable if he and James are on the same side.
Houston Rockets
2016-17 Record: 55-27
Best Realistic Trade Package: Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Sam Dekker and 2019 lottery-protected first-round pick for Paul George
Wins Added: 9.8
Projected Record: 65-17
"We are used to long odds," Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey told Lowe. "If Golden State makes the odds longer, we might up our risk profile and get even more aggressive. We have something up our sleeve."
Was Morey referencing Chris Paul, who is reportedly scheduled to meet with the Rockets at the start of free agency, according to the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner? Or did he know in advance that the Pacers would consider his best offer if George relayed his intent to bolt next summer?
Props to Morey if it's the latter. Paul is the better player, but George is the better fit. He'll have an easier time playing off the ball-dominating James Harden, and head coach Mike D'Antoni can work magic starting those two with Ryan Anderson, Patrick Beverley and Clint Capela.
And when the Rockets go hypersmall, forget about it. Deploying Anderson, Beverley, George, Harden and Lou Williams yields enough two-way firepower to make even the Warriors' "Death Lineup" (slightly) nervous.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale) and listen to his Hardwood Knocks podcast co-hosted by B/R's Andrew Bailey.
Stats courtesy of Basketball Reference or NBA.com. Salary information via Basketball Insiders and RealGM.
