Transfer Quarterbacks Most Likely to Dominate for New Teams in 2017
In Week 1 of the 2016 season, Max Browne and Blake Barnett were the starting quarterbacks for the huge showdown between USC and Alabama. But in Week 1 of the 2017 season, those transfers will likely be starting for Pittsburgh and Arizona State, respectively.
Can they follow in the footsteps of guys like Mike White (2016), Davis Webb (2016), Chad Kelly (2015) and Jeff Driskel (2015), each of which threw for at least 4,000 yards in his first season after transferring to a new school?
Along with Browne and Barnett, there were a bunch of great options for this list of QBs most likely to put up huge numbers in their new threads.
Of the nine quarterbacks who were rated as 5-star recruits by Scout between 2013-15, six will be suiting up for new teams in 2017, including former No. 1 QBs and top-10 overall recruits Browne and Kyle Allen. Given that five of those former high school stars are likely to instantly start for their second schools, coming up with the top five for this list wasn't much of a challenge.
Ranking them (and the other five quarterbacks in the top 10) came down to a combination of returning weapons at their disposal, likelihood of starting the first game of the season and a hunch as to whether they'll rediscover the immense potential displayed at some point in the not-too-distant past.
Honorable Mentions
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Anu Solomon, Baylor (from Arizona)
As a freshman in 2014, Anu Solomon threw for 3,798 yards, leading Arizona to its highest AP ranking since 1999. But a lackluster sophomore season followed by a knee injury one week into his junior year led to his early exit from Tucson and eventual landing spot in Waco. Unfortunately, he's anything other than a guarantee to start with Zach Smith still in the picture for Baylor. The then-freshman threw for more than 1,200 yards and 11 TD in the final four games of last season.
David Cornwell, Nevada (from Alabama)
Rated as the seventh-best QB in the 2014 class, David Cornwell never even attempted a pass in his three seasons with the Crimson Tide. But he has a chance to put up big numbers at Nevada for the next two years, provided he can bypass Ty Gangi on the depth chart.
Tanner Lee, Nebraska (from Tulane)
Tanner Lee's numbers at Tulane were far from special. In 19 games, he had 23 TD and 21 INT while winning just three games against FBS teams. After losing both Tommy Armstrong and Ryker Fyfe, though, the Cornhuskers don't have any other options with FBS experience. Perhaps with better targets and offensive linemen, Lee could thrive in Nebraska.
Peyton Bender, Kansas (from Washington State and JUCO)
With Luke Falk blocking his path to playing time, Peyton Bender saw little action with Washington State. But in nine games with Itawamba C.C., Bender averaged better than 300 yards per game and better than five TD per INT. He'll have to beat Carter Stanley for the starting job at Kansas, but it wouldn't take much for Bender to become the best KU QB of the 2010s.
Jake Luton, Oregon State (from Idaho and JUCO)
Similar to Bender, Jake Luton did next to nothing as a freshman with an FBS program before going the JUCO route and putting up huge numbers. In 11 games with Ventura College, he threw for more than 3,500 yards with 40 TD. But Marcus McMaryion, Darell Garretson and Conor Blount all return for Oregon State, putting Luton into a multi-pronged QB battle.
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma (from Texas A&M)
Kyler Murray put up respectable numbers as a true freshman at Texas A&M and was one of the hottest commodities on the transfer market last offseason. However, the only way he's putting up big numbers this season is if Baker Mayfield suffers an injury.
10. Kyle Bolin, Rutgers
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2016 Stats (w/Louisville): 234 yards, 66.7 comp%, 2 TD, 1 INT, 156.5 Rating
Louisville only signed two 4-star QBs between 2005-14: Teddy Bridgewater in 2011 and Kyle Bolin in 2013. The former was handed the starting job just three games into his true freshman season and eventually became a first-round pick in the 2014 NFL draft.
The latter redshirted while Bridgewater carried the Cardinals to a 12-1 record, then he was never given much of a chance to play, save for a few games when Lamar Jackson was banged up. Maybe Charlie Strong would have handed Bolin the keys in 2014, but when Strong left to become the head coach at Texas, Bobby Petrino came in and made Bolin the third-string QB.
The Kentucky native stayed close to home to get his degree before deciding in late April to use his graduate-transfer option to play at Rutgers. Bolin immediately becomes the only top-250 recruit that Rutgers has signed since 2012 and should immediately become the starter for an offense that was shut out four times last season.
An upgrade at QB isn't necessarily a catalyst for an offensive revolution, though. Three of Rutgers' top four targets from last year graduated, and they lost a few linemen from a unit that was already allowing nearly three sacks per game. Bolin should help matters, but the Scarlet Knights have a long road to traverse before they become dominant.
9. Brandon Harris, North Carolina
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2016 Stats (w/LSU): 139 yards, 52.0 comp%, 1 TD, 2 INT, 95.9 Rating
Rated by Scout as the sixth-best QB in the class of 2014, Brandon Harris had accuracy issues in all three seasons with LSU.
He was the only Tiger to even attempt a pass in 2015, completing just 53.8 percent of them and barely averaging one TD per game. One game and one series into a 2016 season that appeared to be headed down the same path, he lost his job to Danny Etling and didn't record another stat before transferring to North Carolina.
Despite lackluster numbers with LSU, Harris is clearly the top option for the Tar Heels heading into next season. With Mitchell Trubisky leaving for the NFL, there is no one else on this roster who has attempted at least 10 career passes at the collegiate level. And perhaps the shift away from a run-first offense in a defensively-dominant conference will be just what Harris needs to finally fulfill the expectations coming out of high school.
The Tar Heels didn't just lose Trubisky to the NFL, though. Wide receivers Mack Hollins and Ryan Switzer were both selected in the fourth round. Running backs T.J. Logan and Elijah Hood both went in later rounds. Bug Howard wasn't drafted, but he also ran out of years of eligibility. That leaves Austin Proehl (43 receptions for 597 yards) as the only returning player who amassed at least 200 total yards from scrimmage in 2016.
Harris might put up big numbers in Chapel Hill, but there's minimal indication as far as who would be on the receiving end of those yards.
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8. Malik Zaire, Florida
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2016 Stats (w/Notre Dame): 122 yards, 47.8 comp%, 1 TD, 0 INT, 106.7 Rating
After four long years of holding a clipboard while watching Tommy Rees, Everett Golson and DeShone Kizer take the vast majority of the snaps at Notre Dame, Malik Zaire might finally be a long-term starting quarterback in college football.
Then again, with Luke Del Rio and redshirt freshman Feleipe Franks both candidates for Florida's starting gig, Zaire may just be holding a clipboard in a different state.
That's our only real justification for keeping him out of the top five.
When he has gotten the chance to play, Zaire has been solid. In 98 career passing attempts, he has six touchdowns without an interception. And his legs are arguably a bigger weapon than his arm, as he has averaged 4.5 yards per carry on more rushing attempts than passes completed.
For a couple of weeks spanning his sophomore and junior years, Zaire was ND's No. 1 QB. He led the Fighting Irish to a win over LSU in the 2014 Music City Bowl. He then completed 19-of-22 passes for three touchdowns in the season opener against Texas nine months later. But a fractured ankle the following week opened the door for Kizer to run with the job for the next two years.
Can Zaire rediscover that form to become one of several great dual-threat quarterbacks in the SEC this season?
7. Will Grier, West Virginia
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2015 Stats (w/Florida): 1,202 yards, 65.6 comp%, 10 TD, 3 INT, 145.6 Rating
In mid-October 2015, Florida was 6-0 and No. 8 in the AP poll with redshirt freshman Will Grier steering the ship. Treon Harris was originally the starter for the Gators, but it took less than two games for it to become clear that their best shot at a national championship was by putting all of their eggs in Grier's basket.
Thus, Florida's dream season went up in smoke when news broke that Grier had been suspended for a full calendar year for testing positive for performance-enhancing substances. Rather than hang around and hope that a starting job would still be waiting for him the following October, Grier transferred out of The Swamp and eventually landed at West Virginia.
If he's actually eligible at the beginning of the 2017 season—a ruling from the NCAA that we've been waiting on for about 18 months now—he should immediately become the starting QB for Dana Holgorsen and the Mountaineers. At any rate, with Skyler Howard out of eligibility after two years as the starter, there's no incumbent he needs to supplant in Morgantown.
"The arm strength and the accuracy, he can make all the throws," Holgorsen told Chris Anderson of 247 Sports in April. "That's good to have back there, obviously. It's been fun to watch in the spring. Hopefully will score more points this fall."
But until we're certain that he'll even be allowed to play for the first half of the season, we can't put him in the first half of our top 10. That would be a disservice to the next six quarterbacks who will almost certainly lay claim to starting jobs no later than Week 3.
6. Thomas Sirk, East Carolina
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2015 Stats (w/Duke): 2,624 yards, 58.8 comp%, 16 TD, 8 INT, 119.0 Rating
Duke were relevant for the first time in decades with Anthony Boone at quarterback, but the Blue Devils were able to remain a ranked program with Thomas Sirk running the show. In addition to throwing for better than 215 yards per game, Sirk was also Duke's leading rusher. He carried the ball 163 times for 809 yards and eight scores—one for each win the Blue Devils had in 2015.
But his Achilles' heel was quite literally his Achilles' heel. After tearing it in February 2016, he suffered another partial tear to the tendon days before the start of the 2016 season. It was his third Achilles injury in less than four years, and the subsequent surgery caused him to miss the entire year.
Had redshirt freshman Daniel Jones been a disaster as the unexpected starting QB, maybe Sirk would have stuck around at Duke for his sixth year of eligibility. Instead, Jones had a solid year and very well might have won an offseason battle for the job with Sirk.
Rather than stick around to find out, Sirk packed his bags for East Carolina where—health permitting—he should be able to beat Gardner Minshew to become the primary signal-caller for the Pirates.
ECU's Zay Jones led the nation in both receptions (158) and receiving yards per game (145.5) last season, but he's no longer part of the picture. We'll see how well Sirk can work returning receivers Jimmy Williams and Quay Johnson into what he's able to do as a dual-threat QB in a new home.
5. Shane Morris, Central Michigan
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2016 Stats (w/Michigan): 45 yards, 80.0 comp%, 0 TD, 0 INT, 155.6 Rating
Once upon a time, Shane Morris was going to be the next big thing in a long line of great Michigan quarterbacks. Rated by Scout as the third-best QB in the class of 2013, it should have only been a matter of time before he was slinging touchdowns in front of a raucous crowd in the Big House.
But in 92 career pass attempts, he has never thrown a single TD—unless you count the pick six he tossed to Minnesota as a sophomore. Even while Devin Gardner struggled through a 5-7 season in 2014, Brady Hoke stuck with his veteran. And in his first season with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, Morris opted to redshirt rather than battle Iowa transfer Jake Rudock for the starting job.
Long story short, the timing was never right for Morris at Michigan, but he's hoping to capture lightning in a bottle for one year at Central Michigan.
The Chippewas lost four-year starter and 12,000-yard passer Cooper Rush this offseason, leaving them with nothing close to an established, experienced option at QB. Sophomore Tony Poljan took first-team snaps during the spring while they waited for Morris to officially join the team in the fall, but Poljan has yet to appear in a college game. It should be Morris' job to lose.
What the Chippewas do have, though, are experienced targets for Morris to find. Last year's leading receivers Corey Willis, Mark Chapman and Tyler Conklin all return as seniors after combining for 2,243 yards and 19 TDs in 2016.
Whether CMU will play enough defense to win 10 games is another story, but once Morris finally breaks his career TD drought, this team could be special on offense.
4. Blake Barnett, Arizona State
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2016 Stats (w/Alabama): 219 yards, 57.9 comp%, 2 TD, 0 INT, 189.5 Rating
Every quarterback on this list has some sort of sob story. Whether it was an injury, a coaching change or an unfortunate roster overlap with a better player, things didn't quite work out the way these guys had hoped. At a certain point of reading through the ever-growing annual transfer list, you kind of stop feeling bad for them and just accept that things don't always go according to plan.
But the situation that led to Blake Barnett's departure from Alabama is one that will have most people rooting for him to succeed at Arizona State.
Barnett didn't play as a true freshman, as is more or less the unofficial rule at Alabama. A.J. McCarron got a little bit of garbage-time experience as a freshman in 2010, but his 48 attempts marked the only time since 1999 that a freshman attempted at least 30 passes in a season for the Crimson Tide. Rather, Barnett gained experience from watching Jake Coker and Cooper Bateman, hoping to surpass Bateman for the starting gig after Coker graduated.
Which he did...for a grand total of two series before true freshman Jalen Hurts swooped in and stole the job.
Barnett completed two of three pass attempts for three yards and had an 11-yard sack en route to a pair of first-quarter punts in the season opener against USC. He was not seen again until the game was well out of reach, nor was he seen for the first several drives of the following game against Western Kentucky. A few weeks later, he announced he was transferring out of the program.
But will the former 5-star recruit even have a starting job with Arizona State? Incumbent starter Manny Wilkins wasn't exactly a shooting star in Pac-12 play for the 2-7 Sun Devils, but he undeniably has more experience in the system than Barnett has. Eventually, though, Barnett will get his chance, and he won't let this one slip away.
3. Max Browne, Pittsburgh
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2016 Stats (w/USC): 507 yards, 62.4 comp%, 2 TD, 2 INT, 111.0 Rating
Like 2016 season-opening opponent Blake Barnett, Max Browne was a 5-star stud who patiently waited for his time to shine, only to have it all go awry in what felt like a New York minute.
Browne was the highest-rated QB in the entire 2013 class. Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Oklahoma and others were desperate to sign the stud from Washington. And had he known that Cody Kessler would throw for 88 TDs and more than 10,000 yards in the three seasons that overlapped with his time in Southern California, Browne certainly would have chosen one of those other options.
Instead, he signed with the Trojans, stuck it out for three years of averaging less than one pass attempt per team game, finally got named the starter as a redshirt junior and promptly lost two of his first three games. Sam Darnold was then handed the starting job, and the rest, as they say, is history. Browne attempted just six passes in USC's final 10 games before transferring across the country to Pittsburgh.
Will that move be the jump start that he needs to finally deliver on some of his immense potential coming out of high school?
If nothing else, Browne picked what appears to be the perfect situation to instantly thrive. Starting QB Nathan Peterman and starting running back James Conner both graduated, but they left top receiver Jester Weah in school for the new QB to target. Ben DiNucci—who threw two interceptions in just nine pass attempts last season—is Browne's top competition for the job, which essentially means it's his to lose.
As was the case at USC, though, it won't be long before he's seriously tested as a starter. After opening the season against Youngstown State, Pitt faces Penn State and Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks. Perhaps Browne will fare better in this early trial.
2. Jarrett Stidham, Auburn
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2015 Stats (w/Baylor): 1,265 yards, 68.8 comp%, 12 TD, 2 INT, 199.0 Rating
Back before things began to unravel at Baylor, Jarrett Stidham was the program's future. The 5-star recruit made a huge impact as a true freshman quarterback. As a backup to Seth Russell, Stidham completed 24 of the first 28 passes in his career for 331 yards and six TDs.
After Russell suffered a broken bone in his neck, Stidham threw for 419 yards and three scores in his first game as a starter. But he then lost the job to a broken bone of his own. A chip in his ankle caused him to miss the rest of the season, but he was expected to come back strong and compete for the job as a sophomore.
When Baylor's sexual abuse scandal erupted that summer, though, he decided to transfer, eventually landing at Auburn, where he should supplant Sean White as the starting quarterback.
"When he first got here, obviously everybody is skeptical," running back Kerryon Johnson told ESPN.com's Greg Ostendorf after Auburn's spring game. "Is he really that good? Is he this or that? I think he is. He really has potential. He's a smart dude. He knows the offense. He wants to run it well. He likes to lead. Obviously, he's got a very good arm."
It'd be almost impossible for Stidham to go down in Auburn lore as its best transfer QB. After all, Cam Newton had 50 TD, went 14-0 and won the Heisman in his only season with the Tigers. But Stidham has a chance to immediately be special in his new threads.
1. Kyle Allen, Houston
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2015 Stats (w/Texas A&M): 2,210 yards, 56.5 comp%, 17 TD, 7 INT, 137.0 Rating
From 2010-15, only one quarterback was rated by Scout as one of the seven best overall recruits in his respective class—Kyle Allen in 2014.
It didn't take long for him to live up to the hype, either. When Kenny Hill played his way out of a job at Texas A&M, Allen took the reins as a true freshman. Over the final four games of the season, he completed 65.1 percent of his passes for 12 TD, including a then-career-high 294 yards and five all-purpose touchdowns in the Liberty Bowl win over West Virginia.
But after a sophomore year spent battling true freshman Kyler Murray for playing time, Allen decided to take his talents somewhere that they would be better appreciated.
Houston certainly fits that description. The Cougars lost Greg Ward Jr. after more than two years of service as the starting quarterback, but they still have three of Ward's four favorite targets from last season, including Linell Bonner, who is arguably the best possession receiver in the nation.
And while Jarrett Stidham, Max Browne and others on this list will face difficult schedules, Allen gets one of the cushiest schedules a transfer quarterback could possibly request. Save for a November road game against USF, Houston doesn't play a single game against a team likely to receive a vote in the preseason AP poll. And the Bulls are one of three teams the Cougars will face who ranked in the bottom seven nationally in passing yards allowed per game in 2016.
Provided he has the starting job from Week 1 and can remain healthy for four months, Allen should have little trouble throwing for close to 4,000 yards in his first year with Houston.
Unless otherwise noted, stats are courtesy of Sports Reference and cfbstats.com. Recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com.
Kerry Miller covers college football and college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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