New York Mets' 2017 MLB Draft Preview, Predictions

An expected contender, the New York Mets must now prepare for an uncertain future.

Befallen by numerous injuries, the 2015 National League champions have descended eons behind the East-leading Washington Nationals. At 25-32, they're vying for second in a subpar division instead of nearing another playoff bid.

Outside of breakout star Michael Conforto, their position players are mostly playing out the end of contracts and over 30 years old. A once-dominant rotation is in a downfall with Noah Syndergaard hurt and Matt Harvey lost on the mound.

With their immediate future murky, they can help set a brighter path through this year's MLB first-year player draft. Brandishing pick No. 20, the organization will hope to discover the next Conforto or Harvey who can avoid another prolonged swoon as they experienced from 2009 to 2014.

Let's break down their farm system and study some of their top potential first-round targets on Monday.

Farm System Strengths

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Shortstop Amed Rosario is ready to stabilize the position for New York.

To Mets fans' dismay, Amed Rosario remains their top minor leaguer rather than the big league club's everyday shortstop. The crown jewel of their farm system should debut some time this summer for an infield sorely needing a defensive upgrade.

So if Gavin Cecchini wants to snag a full-time job, he'll need to stick at second base. Fellow shortstops Luis Carpio and Luis Guillorme also have the gloves, but not bats barring major improvement. Andres Gimenez, meanwhile, has impressively held his own in the Single-A South Atlantic League at age 18.

If all goes according to plan, Rosario will spend years throwing to first baseman Dominic Smith, a smooth-swinging lefty batting .321 in Triple-A. His power remains an uncertainty, but he has consistently increased his pop on his path to The Show.

Outfielder Desmond Lindsay still flaunts a high ceiling, but he's nowhere near touching it. Brandon Nimmo, who may have made the Opening Day roster over Michael Conforto if healthy, should at least parlay his keen batting eye into a fourth-outfielder role.

Rosario and Smith are the marquee names to remember in an above-average farm system. With little youth surrounding Conforto, they should keep accumulating bats. Then again...

Areas of Need

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Justin Dunn, drafted in the first round from Boston College last year, has struggled this season.

Expected to contend behind their filthy young rotation, the Mets instead rank last in runs allowed per game. Their premier minor league pitchers also haven't progressed this season.

Last year's first-round pick, Justin Dunn, has surrendered a 4.81 ERA with 35 strikeouts and 20 walks accrued over 48.2 inconsistent innings. After vaulting up prospect lists last season, Thomas Szapucki sat out April and May with a shoulder injury.

A high-ceiling righty and lefty is more than many other teams can boast, and the Mets have crafted a resounding track record of developing hurlers. (Keeping them healthy is another story). But as they witness the fleeting lifespan of pitchers, they no longer have a deep reserve of future replacements.

Aside from shortstop, they're not stacked enough anywhere to emphasize a certain position. No spot is necessarily a major weakness either.

They also need to stop playing 29-year-old football players hitting .218/.303/.333 in a Single-A publicity stunt. Let's hope that doesn't cost any draftee a spot.

Top-Hitting Targets

Before taking a pair of pitchers (Dunn and Anthony Kay) last year, the Mets drafted a position player in each of the previous four opening rounds. Conforto was the only college prospect of the bunch, and his success could lead them back to the university route.

Two college middle infielders and a polished high school talent highlight the hitters most frequently projected to go around pick No. 20.

Nick Pratto, 1B, Huntington Beach HS (Calif.)

A two-way prospect, Nick Pratto should receive more attention as a first baseman with a compact swing and slick glove.

One of this year's most polished prep players has impressed scouts with his quick bat. Although he also throws 88-90 mph on the mound, he's a possible All-Star first baseman if he unlocks his power potential. 

There's a strong chance Pratto is off the board before the Mets can pounce. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo predicted the Atlanta Braves reaching for him at pick No. 5 to save bonus-pool money.

A more likely outcome is Pratto instead striving to call New York home with the Yankees snagging him four spots before their cross-town adversaries.

Logan Warmoth, SS, North Carolina

ESPN Insider Keith Law has the Mets welcoming North Carolina shortstop Logan Warmoth to the organization.

But wait, what about Rosario and their other prospects playing the same position? Hoarding a surplus of young talent never hurts, and the junior dazzled this season with a .336/.410/.562 slash line, nine home runs and 18 steals over 55 games.

There's also the question of whether he will stick at shortstop anyway. Law listed him at third base and addressed the possibility of him also sliding to second. Minor League Ball's John Sickels, on the other hand, credited Warmoth with "above-average range, hands, and instincts at shortstop."

His nearly big league-ready bat can play at any of those spots, and New York's sluggish, aging defense can sorely use some versatility. 

Keston Hiura, 2B/OF, UC Irvine

Another notable college producer, UC Irvine's Keston Hiura hit an outlandish .442/.567/.693 during his junior campaign. Labeled as "arguably the best pure hitter in the collegiate ranks" by FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen, his bat may override other concerns.

The righty isn't built like a typical slugger, a fact UC Irvine associate head coach Ben Orloff discussed with Baseball America's Hudson Belinsky. 

"He's a tough comp because who is 5-foot-11 and can hit 60 extra base hits? He's a tough comp, but the bat's real," Orloff said.

Even if MLB clubs agree, they also may worry about a UCL sprain from last year which has limited him to serving as a designated hitter. Without a stable position, he's a risky choice for a National League club. Then again, this is a franchise trotting out Asdrubal Cabrera instead of Rosario at shortstop, so the Mets haven't treated defense as a top priority.

Top Pitching Targets

Will any of the Mets' ballyhooed starters be healthy in three or four years? If so, how many—if any—will they pay to keep?

If they want another top prospect to feature in their future plans, these three righties stand out as top possibilities.   

Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA

UCLA's Griffin Canning leaped to stardom this year by posting a 2.34 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 119 innings. The polished pitcher on a prestigious program should attract mid-to-late first-round consideration.

A reliable strike-thrower, Canning issued 59 walks over 292 innings for the Bruins. Yet Sickels wondered if he would routinely hit his spots against superior opponents.

"While Canning throws strikes, his command within the strike zone isn't always perfect and he doesn't have the blistering fastball to get away with large numbers of location mistakes at the highest levels," he wrote.

The 6'1" hurler effectively utilizes multiple pitches with a a funky delivery. He's a high-floor option compared to other pitchers.

Sam Carlson, RHP, Burnsville HS (Minn.)

Minnesota isn't quite a feeding ground for elite baseball prospects, but Burnsville's Sam Carlson is poised to become the state's first high school pitcher selected in the opening round.

Perhaps the Mets, who have not drafted a high school hurler in the first round since snagging Scott Kazmir in 2002, aren't the most likely team to make that dream come true. Law also slapped the righty with a label no team wants to see: "reliever risk."

Nevertheless, he has pushed his way into the top-20 conversation. Expected to build his stock at Florida, he instead shot up to 6'4" and muscled his fastball into the 90s. Sickels complimented his mechanics and "quite advanced" secondary pitches.

If the Mets want to roll the dice on a future ace, he may be a gamble worth taking. 

Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri

A 6'5" righty from an SEC mainstay might be more up the Mets' alley. In three years with the Missouri Tigers, Tanner Houck registered a 3.26 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with slightly under one strikeout per inning.

Despite producing consistent overall results, his last turn may sour scouts. Houch unraveled during an SEC tournament start against Texas A&M, hitting three batters and allowing seven runs (six earned ) over 4.1 ugly frames.

Once expected to land before New York's turn, bouts of diminished velocity will nudge him down into the opening round's latter half. He's another pitcher who may wind up in the bullpen, but he also possesses the frame and skills befitting a durable starter. 

Prediction: Logan Warmoth

Yes, they already have Rosario, so drafting another shortstop makes the least sense in pure terms of team need.

But no MLB franchise can accurately foresee its future state of affairs. Who would have guessed pitching would hamper their 2017 playoff chances after carrying them steps away from the World Series crown two years ago?

Outside of the position predicament, Warmoth fits the organization's tastes as a well-rounded college hitter. If Rosario is the star they think he is and the North Carolina draftee also pans out, he can do so at second or third.

Assuming Pratto is off the board—this writer has the Yankees drafting him—the Mets will likely view Warmoth as the best player on the board if available. If that's the case, they'll take the plunge.

Note: All college statistics courtesy of The Baseball Cube.