NBA Finals 2017: Odds and Predictions for Cavaliers vs. Warriors Series
The boring brilliance that is another NBA Finals showdown between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors starts next Thursday.
Boring, because LeBron James and Stephen Curry leading their respective teams to another Finals encounter puts a bold checkmark in the column for those who suggest the regular season is either too long or not important enough, if not both.
Still, there's something special about the boring if it leads to an encounter between teams like this, which once again promises legacy-defining moments for all involved. And the fresh storylines about this time, too—LeBron has to defend the 'land after doing the unthinkable a year ago, and the reloaded Warriors, now featuring Kevin Durant, aren't permitted to stumble on the revenge tour.
So yes, everything about this series, though predictable in its participants, screams must-see television.
Here's a look at the full Finals schedule, with Game 5 and beyond only if necessary:
Game 1: Cleveland at Golden State, Thursday, June 1 at 9 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 2: Cleveland at Golden State, Sunday, June 4 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 3: Golden State at Cleveland, Wednesday, June 7 at 9 p.m. ET on ABC
Game 4: Golden State at Cleveland, Friday, June 9 at 9 p.m. on ET ABC
*Game 5: Cleveland at Golden State, Monday, June 12 at 9 p.m. ET on ABC
*Game 6: Golden State at Cleveland, Thursday, June 15 at 9 p.m. ET on ABC
*Game 7: Cleveland at Golden State, Sunday, June 18 at 8 p.m. ET on ABC
Oddsmakers out of Las Vegas, at least, have found it tough to go against the Warriors at home as of writing. Here's where the opening line stood:
Per OddsShark, the line has already moved the Cavaliers to 6.5-point underdogs. For the series as a whole, Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz provided an interesting note:
It's not hard to blame the oddsmakers for siding with Golden State.
The Warriors have yet to lose this postseason, moving past the Portland Trail Blazers in a fashion akin to swatting away a gnat. Damian Lillard simply didn't have enough around him, hence only one game finishing within 10 points.
It was a similar story in the conference semifinals. The Utah Jazz were a great rebuilding story after sticking to the plan for years, but four blowout losses later and Jazz management has to wonder if the whipping was bad enough to encourage Gordon Hayward to flee to the Eastern Conference.
The conference finals is where oddmakers probably solidified how the odds would play in the Finals. Kawhi Leonard or not, the San Antonio Spurs figured to pose a big challenge. Instead, the Warriors got the sweep, with only the opening game standing as a competitive affair in hindsight.
If it sounds like a lot of praise, it is, and here's LeBron adding more to the pile, as captured by Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver:
On one hand, Cleveland figures to have the defense necessary to somewhat limit the Warriors. But Curry came away from the series against San Antonio averaging 31.5 points while shooting 56.4 percent from the floor and 46.7 percent from deep. Durant was even more efficient, averaging 28.0 on 60.3 and 40.9 percent, respectively.
Still, the Cavaliers know how to shut down talented players. In a sweep of the Indiana Pacers, which could send Paul George fleeing from a conference just like Hayward, Cleveland limited him to 15 points in the closeout game.
In the next round, Cleveland followed up by sweeping the Toronto Raptors, silencing Kyle Lowry over two games and holding DeMar DeRozan to less than 20 points in two of the four.
Perhaps the biggest mark on the resume, though, is simple—the Cavaliers gifted the top seed in the conference to the Boston Celtics—then proceeded to whip them over four of five games in the conference finals, holding Isaiah Thomas to 19 total points over two games before Boston shut him down for the series.
"This team is a crazy team. They just stayed resilient all year, got to the playoffs, and we really stepped our game up," Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue said after eliminating the Celtics, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "Now we can start focusing on Golden State to get ready. As of tonight, I'll get started."
This has focused on Cleveland's defense so far in large part because it's been the usual dominance on the offensive end of the court. LeBron averaged 29.6 points or more in every series, Kyrie Irving has been the usual elite facilitator and Kevin Love woke up to average 22.6 points and 12.4 rebounds in the series against Boston.
Taking all the above into account, it's still hard to come to a cemented prediction about the series—especially after the 3-1 comeback last year.
On one hand, the Warriors adding Durant to the mix throws things for a loop. Shut him down, and Cleveland has to count on guys like Curry and Klay Thompson missing high-percentage looks from range. But it swings both ways—if Draymond Green sticks on LeBron, Kyrie Irving can get past Curry, and a Durant lineup leaves the Warriors vulnerable underneath the basket against a surging Love.
Still, oddsmakers came to favor the Warriors for various reasons. One is depth, where the Warriors simply outclass the Cavaliers. Two is style of play, as the Warriors love to run in transition, which even LeBron will have problems slowing because a cut to the rim leaves lethal shooters open from deep.
Maybe 16-0 isn't too realistic. LeBron himself is good for a pair of wins at a minimum. But bettors can count on the point-guard battle to even out, and leaning on Love as the reason the Finals swing isn't the best idea.
LeBron said it best above—these Warriors are stressful. They're undefeated through the playoffs for a reason and this isn't some squad of regular-season heroes unprepared for what it takes to shutter the Cavaliers, who haven't changed too much from a year ago.
Look for Durant—villain role or otherwise—to take control, winning Game 1 in convincing fashion and keeping the Cavaliers on the defensive for the entire series.
Prediction: Warriors in 6
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