Buying or Selling New York Yankees' 5 Most Surprising April Stars
The New York Yankees didn't get the memo that they were supposed to be rebuilding in 2017.
What they've been doing instead is winning ballgames. Their 11-7 record makes them one of the best teams in the American League. Based on their MLB-best plus-30 run differential, they deserve even better.
A hot start like this can't happen without surprising performances, and the Yankees have gotten those from just about every corner of their roster. One could do a buy-or-sell breakdown of a dozen of their most surprising players.
For brevity's sake, though, the focus here will be on just their five most surprising players. Using the latest and greatest in baseball nerdery, it's time to put their early production to the test.
Austin Romine, C
1 of 5
Austin Romine entered 2017 with a .586 OPS in the majors, not to mention being buried somewhere beneath Gary Sanchez in the Yankees' catching depth chart.
But with Sanchez on the disabled list, Romine has gotten his shot. With an .840 OPS in 42 plate appearances, he's doing with it what he said he would.
"I always said that if I got a chance again in the big leagues that I was going to make the most of it that I could," Romine said, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. "I'm lucky here and there. I'm hitting some balls well. But it's fun to be a part of a team like this."
The 28-year-old has made a real improvement with his approach. He's swung less often and chased fewer bad pitches, and he has benefited with a near-equal mix of walks (four) and strikeouts (five).
However, Romine hasn't upped his game when it comes to actually hitting the ball.
He entered Tuesday averaging 85.1 miles per hour in exit velocity in his batted balls. That's two miles per hour slower than the average hitter. His saving grace has been a solid all-fields attack, but that's likely not enough to sustain his .344 batting average on balls in play.
You know that part where Romine said he's been "lucky here and there?" He's right.
Verdict: Sell
Starlin Castro, 2B
2 of 5
Starlin Castro having a hot April is nothing new, so why should anyone believe in the staying power of the .971 OPS he has this month?
His walk rate is one reason. He walked in only 3.8 percent of his plate appearances in 2015 and 2016, in which he had a .703 OPS overall. He's walked five times in 75 plate appearances in 2017—that's 6.7 percent.
But that only looks like something until you lift up the hood and look at Castro's actual approach. His swing and chase are in line with his career norms, so it's hard to say he has a new-and-improved outlook.
One thing that's legitimately different is Castro's preferred batted-ball habit. With a career-low 42.1 ground-ball percentage in play, he has joined baseball's fly-ball revolution.
His actual power hasn't changed, however. Fly balls and line drives off his bat have been hit at an average of 93.2 mph. That's barely higher than the MLB average of 93.0 mph. And with just a 35.1 pull percentage, he's not doing what he should to maximize the effect of his modest pop.
It doesn't so much add up to a picture of something bad as it does to a picture of a mixed bag. Given Castro's lengthy history of inconsistency, buying into the better elements of it isn't recommended.
Verdict: Sell
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Aaron Hicks, OF
3 of 5
Aaron Hicks struggled to adapt his bat to major league pitching in his first four seasons, posting just a .644 OPS across 1,289 plate appearances.
Now he has a 1.182 OPS in 2017, as well as half as many home runs (four) in 44 plate appearances as he hit in 361 plate appearances last season.
There's no way he'll continue hitting 33.3 percent of his fly balls over the fence. But he has been a fly-ball hitter (41.2 FB%) with a pull habit (61.1 Pull%) when batting left-handed. Thus, the three cheapies he's hit at Yankee Stadium are the residue of design.
Meanwhile, Hicks has already drawn 10 walks for a reason. He's been one of the most patient and most disciplined swingers in baseball. And this isn't so much a new ability as it is him taking a pre-existing ability to an extreme.
One fly in the ointment is that Hicks hasn't been hitting the ball especially hard. Another is that the Yankees' crowded outfield won't make playing time easy to come by. He's not going to stay this hot.
But if the question is whether he's getting results from a new process, the answer is more "yes" than "no."
Verdict: Buy
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Aaron Judge, RF
4 of 5
Although Aaron Judge entered 2017 as one of baseball's top prospects, the .608 OPS he put up in his first taste of the majors last year suggested he might not be ready yet.
The .983 OPS and six homers Judge has this season are suggesting otherwise. And he's sounded like a legit major league hitter whenever he's made contact. Balls have left his bat at an average of 93.2 mph, good for seventh among qualified hitters.
Of course, loud contact is something Judge has always been capable of. He had other priorities for 2017.
"I'm more concerned with swinging at the right pitches," he told John Harper of the New York Daily News early in spring training. "I'm not too worried about results right now. I’m just getting ready for the season."
The descent of Judge's strikeout rate from 44.2 percent in 2016 to 25.4 percent this season is a clear enough indication that he's making good on his goal.
And it gets better. His swing, chase and contact rates mirror the improvement of his strikeout rate, and he's made the holes in his swing smaller. He preferred to swing only at high pitches in 2016. He's greatly expanded his zone coverage in 2017.
Pitchers are likely to adjust to Judge's adjustments, but at least he's proving he can adjust back.
Verdict: Buy
Chase Headley, 3B
5 of 5
With just a .703 OPS and defense that was reliable without being flashy, Chase Headley might as well have been invisible in 2015 and 2016.
Everyone can see him now. The 32-year-old is rocking a .995 OPS, which—when combined with his defense—makes him arguably the Yankees' best player.
Like Hicks, Headley has gone from having a patient approach to an ultra-patient approach. He's swinging and chasing less often than ever. Hence, his 10 strikeouts and 13 walks in 72 plate appearances.
Headley is also yet another convert to the fly-ball revolution. He has just a 35.4 ground-ball percentage, by far the lowest of his career.
It all sounds good until this part: Headley isn't packing more of a punch.
He's averaging just 90.9 mph on his fly balls and line drives. That's easily below the MLB average and not close to even his own standards from 2015 and 2016. And with a career-low 36.7 pull percentage, he's not making like Hicks and tailoring his relatively punchless swing to his home ballpark.
This is a guy who's making an effort to be more dangerous, but who isn't actually more dangerous.
Verdict: Sell
Data courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Brooks Baseball.
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