Playing Keep or Cut with Golden State Warriors' Upcoming Free Agents
The Golden State Warriors have more pressing matters than their future roster formation.
They're still in the early stages of adjusting to Kevin Durant's rough-but-could-have-been-worse MCL sprain and bone bruise. They're jostling for the Western Conference's top seed and have a championship hunt starting next month. They have veterans to carefully manage and prospects to polish.
But it's never too early to look ahead, especially with so many personnel decisions to make this summer. Assuming Durant opts for 2017 free agency, the Warriors will only have five players under contract for next season—two All-Stars, two rookies and a sophomore.
Even if this is off the radar right now for head coach Steve Kerr and his players, safe money says it's already keeping general manager Bob Myers up at night.
Luckily, this handy guide can help the executive and his staff catch up on sleep. All 10 impending free agents—presented in ascending order of their current salaries—have been examined to see who's worth keeping and who's expendable for financial and/or basketball reasons.
Matt Barnes, Unrestricted
1 of 10
Need—not nostalgia—led the Warriors back to Matt Barnes, a key figure on the "We Believe" team that upset the 67-win Dallas Mavericks in the 2007 opening round.
With Kevin Durant sidelined indefinitely by the knee injury, Barnes became a Band-Aid option to help fill voids in defensive versatility and experience. The 36-year-old had recently been cut loose by the rebuilding Sacramento Kings, which says a lot about the state of his career.
For the third straight season, he's shooting below 39 percent from the field and 33 percent outside. His 10.2 player efficiency rating is the lowest he's posted in more than a decade. Once a feisty defensive stopper, he's now allowing opponents to shoot 1.9 points above their normal field-goal percentage.
He still makes sense as a scrap-heap pickup for this season. The Warriors were thin at forward before Durant went down, and his injury demanded a low-cost quick fix. Barnes isn't the player he once was, but he can defend multiple positions and convert open looks.
However, Golden State shouldn't see him as more than a rental. With a full offseason to balance the roster, the Warriors can unearth younger, better options than Barnes—who is facing assault charges from a December incident at a New York City nightclub.
Verdict: Cut
James Michael McAdoo, Unrestricted
2 of 10
James Michael McAdoo exited training camp without a rotation spot. The 6'9" forward doesn't have an obvious skill that demands playing time, so he sat early and often. When the Warriors reached the 41-game midpoint, he'd only made 16 appearances.
But injuries to David West and Zaza Pachulia created opportunities along the frontcourt, and McAdoo pounced. Leaning on his tremendous natural tools—turbo-charged athleticism and a 7'2" wingspan—and full-throttle motor, he found his niche making energetic plays at both ends. He cycles through defensive switches without missing a beat and feasts on point-blank chances off cuts and rim runs.
McAdoo is limited in skills, but he's smart enough to not try to do too much. He's steady, and Kerr sees value in that. McAdoo has now played in 16 of the team's last 17 games, averaging 12.7 points (on 63 percent shooting), 7.5 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 36 minutes.
He looked like an easy cut earlier this season, but his recent run has turned that around. He's not only proving he can produce when called upon, he's also showing the ability to keep himself ready amid prolonged periods of inactivity. That's a bench player worth having around, provided he doesn't cost more than the minimum.
Verdict: Keep
Ian Clark, Unrestricted
3 of 10
Ian Clark, like many recent Warriors reserve wings before him, is approaching a major bank-account boost.
He arrived in Oakland ahead of the 2015-16 season toting two-year averages of 2.4 points and 6.9 minutes, along with a 36.9 field-goal percentage and 34.4 perimeter accuracy rate. He'll enter the 2017 open market fresh off a career year in which he's averaging 6.3 points and 13.6 minutes, while shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 40.0 percent outside.
History says Clark is following a lucrative path.
Leandro Barbosa and Brandon Rush both rebuilt their values with the Warriors then signed for a combined $11.5 million elsewhere last summer. Kent Bazemore joined the Atlanta Hawks less than half-a-season removed from his Oakland exit for $4 million, then cashed out in 2016 on a $70 million deal. Atlanta also gave Justin Holiday two guaranteed seasons after he was a part-timer for the Dubs.
Unless Clark likes the Warriors enough to give them a deep discount, he's probably too costly to keep. Suitors will fall in love with his percentages, even if they might be inflated by the system he's in and the talent around him.
Verdict: Cut
JaVale McGee, Unrestricted
4 of 10
The Warriors already caught lightning in a bottle once with JaVale McGee.
His above-the-rim highlights not only entertain the fanbase, they also add vertical spacing to the offense and intimidation to the interior defense. Awareness has never been a strength of his, and opponents try to target him in pick-and-rolls, but he's still making significant contributions after only arriving with a training camp invite.
Whatever the expectations were around McGee, he's shattered them.
"The team loves him," Kerr said, per Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. "The coaching staff loves him. Sometimes this league is about opportunity and who you're playing with. This is a great spot for him, and we hope he's here for a long time."
These situations can get tricky. McGee has outperformed his minimum deal—22.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes—and it's possible someone decides the Dubs' bargain should be their big-money investment.
But it doesn't seem like that's where this is headed. McGee's reputation needs more repair before anyone rolls the dice on him, especially when his limited role works in large part because of this roster's strength. He also seems like he's having a lot of fun, which should motivate him to set his price at a level the franchise can afford.
Verdict: Keep
David West, Unrestricted
5 of 10
David West has worked so well as a role player that it's almost hard to remember his All-Star past.
His playmaking his blended perfectly into this attack (career-high 6.6 assists per 36 minutes), and he's battled to provide a defensive presence (career highs of 1.7 blocks and 1.9 steals per 36). His 53.6 field-goal percentage is the second-highest he's ever posted, and his 99.7 defensive rating is second-best on the team.
But that shouldn't mean anything more than a comfortable one-year stay with the Warriors.
It wasn't a given he'd even play this season, and he could make this decision for Golden State by retiring. If he doesn't, the team would be better off letting the 36-year-old walk and clearing a bigger path to playing time for the frontcourt prospects.
Ideally, the Warriors can replace West's passing and face-up game with Kevon Looney. Damian Jones would then take over the second team's interior defense duties. And McAdoo, assuming he's brought back, could inject the athleticism West has lost to Father Time.
Verdict: Cut
Zaza Pachulia, Unrestricted
6 of 10
When is the last time Golden State fans lamented last summer's loss of Andrew Bogut? I'm guessing it's been a while, and that's a giant credit to his replacement, Zaza Pachulia.
He has replicated much of what Bogut provided, with less rim protection but more scoring. The Warriors are outscoring opponents by 18.5 points per 100 possessions with Pachulia on the floor; they were plus-14.2 per 100 with Bogut last season.
Pachulia ranks second among centers with a 4.02 real plus-minus, via ESPN.com. Bogut was fourth at the position with a 3.21 in 2015-16.
More importantly, Pachulia has done all of the above at the clearance rate of $2.89 million. He bypassed bigger contracts elsewhere for the chance to chase a championship, and he sounds ready to do the same this summer.
"I don't want this season to end," Pachulia said, per Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle. "When people ask me about [free agency] this summer, I say, 'I'm not going anywhere. I'm staying here.' Even after June, I'm staying here."
As long as Pachulia's priorities don't change, the Warriors should bring him back. The 33-year-old's timeline would allow him to hold the starting spot until one of the youngsters is ready, then transition to the second team for the twilight of his career.
Verdict: Keep
Shaun Livingston, Unrestricted
7 of 10
It took Shaun Livingston years to find an NBA home. After his devastating, career-threatening knee injury in 2007, he suited up for seven teams in six seasons—including two separate stints with the Washington Wizards.
But he's been a Warrior since July 2014, marking the first time since his injury he's been with the same team longer than one season. It's sort of strange he'd find his calling in Golden State as the only non-shooter in the perimeter rotation, but he still fits the franchise mold with his versatility, basketball IQ and vision.
"They've found a way to fit me in and make the most of my talents, the ones that I have left," Livingston said, per Letourneau. "Just having a comfort zone here, getting adapted, having a family in the Bay, I would love to stay here."
He should have that chance, although it will likely require a sacrifice. Golden State's offer won't be the highest he receives, since Durant and Curry are both due for top dollar. That could mean one of the bench leaders—Livingston and Andre Iguodala—has to go.
I'd give Livingston the edge to stay. He's two years younger than Iguodala, presumably cheaper on the open market, similar in skills and more of a matchup problem for opponents with his size and inside-the-arc offense.
Verdict: Keep
Andre Iguodala, Unrestricted
8 of 10
Iguodala's situation is almost perfect.
His unique skill set—relentless on defense, selfless almost to a fault on offense—is ideally used within this system. He doesn't have to masquerade as a top offensive option. He can use his advanced basketball IQ to decipher the correct play and make it, hence his 50.0 field-goal percentage and league-best 4.57 assists per turnover. And his defense draws a spotlight bright enough to capture Finals MVP honors.
Even off the floor, the Bay makes so much sense for Iguodala. He has a razor-sharp business sense, and the proximity to Silicon Valley and investment opportunities there have always appealed to him.
But economics are clouding his future. With so many other players needing to get paid—in particular, the sizable chunks Curry and Durant will command—there probably isn't enough cash to go around.
Maybe that doesn't motivate Iguodala to move. Maybe there isn't enough green elsewhere to make their grass look greener. But the Warriors could low-ball him with the idea Patrick McCaw can have a similar impact at substantially less money, leading to a financially driven split of otherwise like-minded basketball partners.
"It's possible Iguodala could get poached by a desperate team looking to add cache through the shine of the Warriors," Rohan Nadkarni wrote for Sports Illustrated. "What if someone offers Iguodala a two-year deal at the max? Would he be willing to sacrifice $60 million and a larger role somewhere else?"
Verdict: Cut
Stephen Curry, Unrestricted
9 of 10
Before Stephen Curry arrived in 2009, the Warriors had made a single playoff trip over the previous 15 seasons. They had a single All-Star representative during that stretch.
Golden State has already secured its fifth consecutive postseason berth of Curry's tenure, the last two of which resulted in a championship and a seven-game Finals defeat. It had multiple All-Stars for the third straight time this season, sending a league-high four players to the event. It employed the past two MVP winners—both times Curry, most recently as an unprecedented unanimous choice.
Can't find a reason to break up this basketball marriage? Neither can Curry.
"Like I've said from Day 1 when I was first asked about free agency, this is a perfect place to play," Curry told Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News. "Bay Area fans are amazing, our organization's amazing, we've put together an amazing team that's competing for championships every year.
"There's really no reason that I can see right now that would draw me elsewhere."
It's just as obvious from the Warriors side. Curry is the perfect player to lead Kerr's offense, dismantling defenses and rewriting the three-point record books along the way.
If there's any delay in dumping a max offer in Curry's lap, it's only to work through some cap gymnastics first.
Verdict: Keep
Kevin Durant, Player Option
10 of 10
It's fair—and probably prudent—to anticipate Kevin Durant declining his $27.7 million player option. But you shouldn't expect a repeat of last summer's drama-filled free agency.
Warriors co-owner Joe Lacob has "every expectation" Durant will stick with the Dubs, per Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated. Durant has already hinted he'll do exactly that and has "consistently indicated" he expects to ink a longer deal to stay this summer, per Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical.
The unanswered question here is whether Durant would take less than he's eligible for to maximize the team's spending power. If he would accept less than max money, Golden State would have an easier time re-signing the likes of Livingston and Iguodala.
"We'll figure that out when the time comes," Durant said, per Anthony Slater of the Bay Area News Group (h/t the Mercury News).
There are different twists and turns this story could take, but none involve Durant departing the Bay.
It's impossible to imagine him accepting all the criticism he's taken since signing with the Warriors just to conduct a one-year experiment. And Golden State would clearly do whatever is required to keep him. The future first-ballot Hall of Famer was enjoying the most complete season of his career before his knee injury forced him off the floor.
Verdict: Keep
Unless otherwise noted, statistics accurate through Monday, March 6, and used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com. Salary information obtained via Basketball Insiders.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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