Bleacher Report Expert Picks for College Football Playoff
The third edition of the College Football Playoff is upon us, and it's time to go on the record with what will take place on New Year's Eve and in the title game on Jan. 9 in Tampa, Florida.
Will No. 4 Washington upset No. 1 Alabama in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta? Who has the edge in the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl between No. 3 Clemson and No. 2 Ohio State in Glendale, Arizona?
Adam Kramer, Barrett Sallee, Christopher Walsh, Greg Couch and Michael Felder break it down in the playoff edition of Bleacher Report's expert picks.
Will the Ratings Be Up or Down from Last Year?
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Adam Kramer
Up. There are a few reasons for this, but the most significant is the fact that this year's semifinal games will take place on a Saturday.
It doesn't hurt that Alabama, the most polarizing brand, is in. So is Ohio State, another huge draw. Toss in Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson, one of the faces of the sport. And, sure, Washington is a nice little playoff darling. There are plenty of reasons to watch.
But the biggest is that it's the weekend. That's huge. Work, for many, won’t get in the way as it did last year. I still feel that New Year's Eve will hurt these ratings—which is why the management committee is moving the games—but they will be better than what they were.
Not earth-moving but improved.
Barrett Sallee
Up, for sure.
I spoke with College Football Playoff executive director Bill Hancock in October and asked him specifically what was the biggest issue with last year's semifinals: New Year's Eve, the fact it was a workday or the fact both games got sideways.
"Our research showed that those were the top three reasons," he said. "Most people felt like the top reason was the fact that it was a workday."
While the games are on New Year's Eve again this year, they will also be on a Saturday—which means people are generally already programmed to have their college football ears up. The semifinal matchups are interesting, the storylines are abundant and ratings should thrive.
As for the national title game, yes, I also think they'll be up as long as Alabama beats Washington. A rematch of last year's championship tilt with Clemson or the semifinal matchup from two years ago against Ohio State would be extra spicy.
Christopher Walsh
It depends on which teams win.
Overall, the ratings were down so much last year I'm going to say they won't be worse, but that might just be me being optimistic. Organizers learned the hard way that playing the semifinals on New Year's Eve was a really bad idea. Doing so again may be worse.
If the title game is a rematch of Alabama-Clemson, there will be cause for concern for ESPN. Only Washington-Clemson would probably be worse from a ratings standpoint. But last year's national championship was also a very, very good game. So I'd like to think that potential matchup would draw comparable numbers.
If it's Alabama-Ohio State, the ratings will be huge.
Greg Couch
The ratings are going to go up, no question. Playoff officials made a huge mistake putting these games on New Year's Eve, thinking the sport is bigger even than it is. That buried last year's playoff. But Ohio State and Alabama are ratings magnets, and having both of them playing will drive the numbers up. They would be even higher if the games weren't on New Year's Eve. Pessimism: I suspect Washington stayed behind Ohio State in the rankings to keep the possibility of an Alabama-Ohio State national title game and dream ratings intact.
Michael Felder
I expect they'll be up from a year ago because of the teams that are playing. With Clemson and Ohio State, we've got one of the game's most dynamic players against one of the game's top three biggest brands. As long as the game is not a blowout, which is what Oklahoma turned into a year ago, there will be plenty of eyeballs on that one. The starting point is higher—no disrespect to Oklahoma, but it isn't Ohio State (most teams are not).
Alabama and Washington have another of the game's top three brands, plus, unlike a year ago, it involves the West Coast. That is a market that was wholly excluded a season ago. Pulling in just some of those eyeballs from Seattle and down the left coast should help.
What Individual or Unit Matchup Are You Most Looking Forward To?
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Kramer
It's not the sexiest matchup, but I am deeply interested in watching Washington attempt to block Alabama.
This will determine just how much of a chance Washington has in this game, which is why it matters so much. It also feels like, at least on paper, one of the more lopsided schematic matchups in the postseason. Trying to block Alabama these days is basically lopsided for everyone.
Here's the thing, though: If Washington can block Alabama, it has a shot. If not, it's going to be tough.
Sallee
Alabama's defensive backs against Washington wide receivers John Ross and Dante Pettis.
It's OK to say Alabama is, in part, a product of a down SEC. It's still the best team in the country as of now and deserves the No. 1 seed, but its defensive backfield can be had. The Tide got lit up through the air by Ole Miss and Arkansas this year, and Washington's wide receiver duo, combined with quarterback Jake Browning, could repeat the feat.
If the Huskies come out firing early, it could put more pressure on Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts than he's ever faced and dramatically change the Peach Bowl.
Walsh
Washington's coaches.
Alabama's pass rush is incredibly good, and Washington's best chance to move the ball is to attack the edges downfield (more on that coming up). For that to happen, Browning has to have time to throw, so look for the coaches to do everything they can to neutralize the Crimson Tide's attacking defenders.
Considering Huskies head coach Chris Petersen's history, that might include a lot of different things, from screens to trick plays, and seeing the teams adjust and counter one another should be interesting.
Couch
Alabama's defensive line vs. Washington's offensive line. We could know two or three plays in—as we did in the Alabama-Notre Dame title game a few years ago—whether this will actually be a contest. Washington has been a bully and able to protect its quarterback. Its line will believe. But Alabama's D-line is special. I'm thinking Bama's line will dominate.
Felder
Clemson's defensive line against Ohio State's offensive line is going to decide the game, but the Tigers' Mike Williams and Deon Cain against the Buckeyes' Marshon Lattimore and Gareon Conley with Malik Hooker over the top will be the thing to watch. Four of those guys are legitimate first-round picks whenever they leave, and Conley is flirting with adding his name every time he makes a play. This is the best matchup.
Will Washington's WRs Have Success Against Alabama's Defensive Backfield?
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Kramer
I actually believe the Washington wideouts can be productive. John Ross has become one of the more exciting and unguardable players in the country. I like Alabama's corners, but he should be able to get open…if he has the time.
That's the issue. It's also something not discussed. So much of this depends on the offensive line giving the quarterback and the wideouts the proper time to function.
If this group can keep Browning clean, the WRs will make plays. If not—and I believe it will be difficult—it could be a long day.
Sallee
At some point during the game, yes.
When that happens will determine whether Washington has a legitimate chance to spring the upset on the Crimson Tide.
If it happens early, Petersen's crew will have a chance. But Alabama will do its best to treat this game like a heavyweight fight, feel Washington out and then take shots when appropriate, which has typically been the plan all season long.
If Ross and/or Pettis can throw haymakers early, it'll get Bama on its heels. Browning is too good to be held down for 60 minutes and will throw for 250 to 300 yards, but when those yards come is the most important factor of the game.
Walsh
Ross is obviously a special talent. I'm still in awe of his one-handed catch en route to the 19-yard touchdown against Colorado. But the receiving corps is going to have a tough day against Alabama's secondary.
For one, the Crimson Tide players have a height advantage. Ross is listed at 5'11", Chico McClatcher at 5'7" and Pettis at 6'1". The guys Alabama had the most trouble with this season were all bigger/taller.
The other part of that is getting the ball to them. If Washington tries to go sideline to sideline, it'll only bring speedy inside linebackers Reuben Foster and Rashaan Evans into the equation. The best guess here is that Washington will try to lure Alabama into blitzing and then try to hit those holes. Of course, the problem with doing so is Browning will be more susceptible to hits.
Couch
No. But I'm going back to my last answer for this. It's doubtful Browning is going to have time to find them or that they'll have time to get open. In other words, the pick here is that Washington's wide receivers won't have success, because Alabama's defensive line will be controlling the tempo of the UW offense.
Felder
Yes. Ross and Pettis will provide some of the same types of problems we saw Ole Miss give those guys. They're willing to be physical, can catch away from their body, go up and high-point the ball and, most importantly, Washington will give them those shots. Saving the secondary is all rooted in Tim Williams, Ryan Anderson and Jonathan Allen getting to Browning and forcing those throws off target or hitting him before the ball comes out.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
How Much Will Alabama QB Jalen Hurts Be Rattled by Washington's Front 7?
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Kramer
The entire day will be rattling. It's not just a good unit coming after him. It's a good group coming after him, backed by one of the best defensive backfields in football, in one of the biggest moments of his young life.
Yes, Washington's front is good. Even injured, it's talented. But I worry more about the moment itself rather than the specific matchup. This is a lot for anyone to process. For a true freshman, well, what an occasion.
It’ll be up to offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to put him in the right places, which is something he's rather good at it.
Sallee
Nope. At least, not enough to make a difference in the game.
The one thing head coach Nick Saban has consistently said about his true freshman quarterback is the fact that, with a ton of pressure on his back, Hurts has been unflappable.
"You can't coach experience, and you can't coach maturity, but this guy has maturity beyond his years," Saban said prior to the SEC title game. "Maybe it's because his dad was a coach or his coach or whatever, and the thing that I think has helped him persevere through the season and continue to improve through the season is he doesn't get down when things don't go well."
This is the biggest challenge Hurts will face all year, but Washington won't get to him enough to force game-changing mistakes.
Walsh
At this point, I'm beginning to wonder if the Denver Broncos would be able to rattle Hurts.
With the one-year anniversary of his arrival on campus coming up, he can't be considered a freshman anymore. Hurts will also be coming off a whole month of extra prep that should only add to his confidence.
A lot of Alabama players seem to turn a major corner when bowl prep comes around, because the coaches spend a week-plus going back to the basics, and things seem to click. Former Alabama running back Derrick Henry was a perfect example, as he had a big Sugar Bowl at the end of his freshman year.
Hurts has a chance to rest up, regroup and relearn some things he couldn't really stop and get down during the hectic regular season. Don't be surprised if he posts some big numbers in the playoff.
In short, I don’t think Washington can rattle him.
Couch
This is kind of an unknown and maybe a little area of hope for Washington. Hurts will be protected all over the place in so many ways. Most likely that will include the relaxing protection of a big lead and teammates who have all been here before. Not picking this, but he is still young and can still get nervous.
Felder
Only as rattled as you can make a quarterback whose best passing plays have come behind the line of scrimmage, directly in front of him, which is to say likely not much. On plays where Alabama tries to push the ball beyond 10 to 15 yards, I think the Huskies can get to him, but those plays are rare out of the Tide, given what we've seen this season. The real key for the Dawg Pound is going to be not letting him hurt them with his legs. UW needs to stop the zone-read and break up plays where he typically finds ground success.
Will We See the Best Version of J.T. Barrett vs. Clemson?
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Kramer
I think you will see an excellent version. Maybe not Oklahoma-esque, but good enough for Ohio State to secure the win.
I have been critical of J.T. Barrett during the season. His throws just haven't gotten to the point where I thought they would be by now.
But I also know we're grading on a much different scale. He is still so dangerous with his legs and has many interesting pieces around him. It would certainly help if the offensive line played well, which has not been the case every week.
Regardless, Barrett looks a lot like the guy we've seen pieces of all season against a defense that looks suddenly vulnerable.
Sallee
Nope, not even close.
Ohio State gave up eight sacks the last time out against Michigan and six in the loss to Penn State, and Clemson's front seven led by ultra-versatile end Christian Wilkins is the best defensive front the Buckeyes will face all year.
Barrett will get pressure in his face, which will prevent him from stretching the field vertically—which is a big reason why Pitt beat Clemson and Virginia Tech hung around in the ACC title game.
The Tigers will live in the backfield and make life difficult for the Buckeyes signal-caller.
Walsh
I'm not sure what the best version of Barrett is anymore, because I still don't see the same quarterback who had so much success as a freshman in 2014.
Statistically, his numbers are a little down from that season, especially when facing tough competition down the stretch. He completed 70 percent of his passes and had a 199.8 passer efficiency rating against Oklahoma in September but that dropped to 45.5 percent and a 93.3 rating at Michigan State and 46.9 and 73.2, respectively, against Michigan.
Granted, Barrett had 100 yards rushing against both Michigan teams, and the offensive line played a big part in his performance dip. But his passing numbers have to rebound for Ohio State to win.
Couch
That depends on what you define as his best. I think we will see his best, and that means a smart quarterback who doesn't panic and can adjust to all the different types of things Clemson throws at him. He also has a smart coaching staff who has time to watch what Clemson does. Barrett can be too careful at times, but he won't be confused.
Felder
Yes, but not the best version people are hoping to watch. The best Barrett is the guy who does what it takes to win. Sometimes that comes with pushing the ball for a critical first down; other times, it is running away from Jabrill Peppers to extend a drive for his team. He reminds me a lot of 2006 Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith in that regard. It isn't always as pretty as you get out of other quarterbacks. But he finds a way to do it, and it works. He'll take some broken plays as his offensive line cannot stop Clemson and turn those into first downs.
How Much of a Test Will Ohio State's Secondary Be for Deshaun Watson?
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Kramer
If Watson is in true cheat-code form, not much. There isn't much you can do to defend him when he does what he did against Alabama. The way he extends plays makes it almost impossible to live on the back end.
But I do like this Ohio State secondary. For as much love as it has received in so many places, I'm impressed with the way Gareon Conley plays. He was one of the best defensive backs in all of football last year, and I feel like his game has only improved.
But against Williams, this will have to be a group effort. No small one either. Clemson will score—as it often does—but Ohio State's defense will play well.
Sallee
It'll be a test, no doubt.
Ohio State defensive backs Malik Hooker, Marshon Lattimore and Conley are all bona fide stars, and they'll try their best to confuse the junior two-time Heisman Trophy finalist.
But Watson will be up to the challenge and keep the Buckeyes defense guessing with his arm and his legs. He hasn't been as productive on the ground this year as he was last year, but that will change in the Fiesta Bowl. He'll suck in safeties with the threat of quarterback keepers and get one-on-one matchups outside and take advantage with receivers Williams and Artavis Scott.
Walsh
It'll be a huge test—and one the Buckeyes have to pass in order to win.
Watson won’t want to throw over the middle too much because of free safety Hooker, who has six interceptions and has returned three for touchdowns. At the corners, he'll be dealing with the veteran Conley, Lattimore and speedster Denzel Ward, but Clemson's receivers seem to match up well.
The guess here is the Tigers, especially the 6'3" Williams, will try to be physical with them. Scott in the slot is the other guy to watch.
Couch
Well, sure they will be a test. But I suspect Watson is about to have an incredible game. He keeps trying to prove—with his coaches' support—that he is a passer. Yes, he's more than just a run-only talent. But that doesn't mean he should be throwing away his talented running. In the big games, he still runs. It's the combo that makes him great. And that, plus his experience, will be too much for Ohio State's secondary.
Felder
This is the most legit test he will have faced in his career other than Florida State in 2014.
The Buckeyes have talent all over the secondary, and they have the speed to go with the technical skills in the back end. Hooker has made plays all over the field and has been one of the top safeties in college football. Conley is a fighter with great technique who denies passes consistently. Lattimore is an otherworldly freak of an athlete who turns on that extra gear to accelerate and make plays. It'll be the toughest test since his freshman season going into Tallahassee, Florida.
Which Coach in the CFP Scares You Most with Time to Prepare?
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Kramer
Let me first say that I adore this question. It's not an easy answer either.
You could make a compelling case for pretty much all four. Clemson's Dabo Swinney is brilliant and getting better on the job. Petersen is a wild card in all this with his history: the moments, the trickery and his overall ability to coach. Ohio State's Urban Meyer is, well, Urban Meyer. I don't need to say anything else.
But the answer is Saban. He recruits and develops the best talent in the country, which is actually different from this conversation. But no coach in the country understands his roster or staff better than him. That may sound cliche, but it's not.
Sure, he has the most to work with. But it's amazing just how well he knows how to use all the goodness he's acquired.
Sallee
All of them do. But, in particular, Washington's Petersen.
During the Dec. 8 news conference in Atlanta with all four CFP head coaches, he seemed to play up the "I'm just glad to be here" mindset.
That makes me think he's cooking up something for the Crimson Tide, a lot like he did with Boise State in Fiesta Bowl wins after the 2006 (hook-and-ladder/Statue of Liberty vs. Oklahoma) and 2009 seasons. What that dish is and whether it'll work remains to be seen. But it's coming.
Walsh
Um, all of them?
I wouldn't want to go against any of these four with nearly a month to get ready, but I'll go with Saban because of his track record and his support staff.
I'm not expecting the Crimson Tide to do anything unusual per se, in part because they don't need to. But having won four of the last seven national championships pretty much tells how well his teams usually play when a title is at stake.
As previously mentioned, Hurts' having extra time to prepare and sort of assimilate everything he's been through plus Alabama's having some time to recuperate from its regular-season schedule are big. But give Saban this much time on top of the talent this team has...let's just say there's a reason why Alabama is considered the team to beat again.
Couch
Going to have to go with Meyer here. That's not meant to put down Saban. It's just hard to go with the guy with the best talent as the one who can figure out a way to win thanks to his preparation time. Meyer has time to see all the things Clemson's defense does. To me, it's still advantage to Clemson. But Meyer is an equalizer.
Felder
Blah-blah-blah-blah Saban. That's what the people want to hear. But the reality is the guy with the best players and the most resources should be the best. Same goes for Meyer.
I'm going to ride with Petersen. Almost a decade ago, he started to build his lore of being the coach no one wanted to play when he had time to prepare his team. Ask Oregon or Georgia or Virginia Tech about that. Then, he goes to Washington, and apparently, that all goes away. I'm hoping we get to see that Coach Pete again, because those games were fun to rewatch as I picked apart the subtle wrinkles used to create positive plays.
What Player Will Break Out During the CFP?
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Kramer
I'll go with Alabama running back Bo Scarbrough. This is a name you probably know well.
He is the one on the field who looks like some sort of genetic experiment. He's a ridiculous physical talent, although I think that reputation will change this year in the sense he will no longer be known for what he might be at some point.
Alabama still is a running team. As good as Hurts has been at quarterback, the Tide do not want to rely on him the entire time. I believe Scarbrough will inherit a bigger role in these playoffs and will make the most of it.
Sallee
I'm going to follow Kramer and double down on Scarbrough.
After missing two games in mid-November, he reeled off back-to-back games of 90 and 91 rushing yards against Auburn and Florida, respectively. He's serving as a pretty solid closer at the moment for the SEC champs. I expect Bama to use him a little bit earlier in the Peach Bowl if it builds a lead.
Walsh
This probably doesn’t qualify as a "breakout," but keep your eye on Alabama tight end O.J. Howard (again). I know, you're probably saying "I’ve been waiting for that all season" after he had a huge playoff last year.
Getting Howard the ball has been a bit of a challenge for Hurts this season, as the senior has 37 receptions for 445 yards and two touchdowns. But he's still a coverage nightmare.
Just a reminder, Howard was named the offensive MVP of last year's national title game against Clemson after making five receptions for a career-high 208 yards and two touchdowns.
Think the outgoing Kiffin might call his number a few times if the teams rematch?
Couch
Very tempting to get cute here and take Watson. Sure, he already broke out a long time ago. But I suspect that, after this game, people will think the wrong guy won the Heisman. It's another level of breakout? Instead, let's go with Clemson defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. He's already the ACC's best defensive freshman, but when the country sees a freshman this enormous (6'5", 340 lbs)—someone a general sports fan has never heard of—making tackles in the backfield against Ohio State, that will be a breakout.
Felder
Clemson defensive back Cordrea Tankersley.
As a draft analyst, I know scouts are falling in love with him already because he's got nice skills, good length and he's capable of bothering pass-catchers consistently. However, for college football fans, he's still likely just the guy who gave up contain on Kenyan Drake's long kickoff return for a touchdown last year in the title game. I think he has several big redemption moments en route to finishing his career with a national championship.
What Are Your Semifinal and National Title Game Predictions?
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Kramer
The two best coaches in the country will touch gloves. Alabama beats Washington by two touchdowns; Ohio State downs Clemson in a close, epic game.
Alabama then takes out Ohio State by a touchdown, and Saban somehow levitates out of the stadium, showing off a new trick.
Sallee
It'll be a rematch of last season's classic College Football Playoff National Championship Game tilt between Alabama and Clemson.
The Tide will run away and hide from Washington late in the Peach Bowl, and the Tigers will roll over, around and through Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.
This time, the Tigers will pay extra special attention to special teams. Watson will have success with Williams and Scott, and Clemson will win its first national title since 1981.
Walsh
Peach Bowl: I like Washington a lot and believe the selection committee was correct to put the Huskies in the playoff. But they don't match up particularly well with the Crimson Tide. Alabama's offense will come out going side to side, getting those 300-pound linemen moving, and then hit Washington with the power-running game. Defensively, the Tide's front seven is just too good and will be the difference.
Fiesta Bowl: This is a great matchup between two talented teams, and no one would be surprised to see it go down to the wire. The way Ohio State's offensive line had trouble protecting Barrett down the stretch makes me think Clemson will have an advantage on the edges, plus it has the better quarterback. A shootout would work even more to the Tigers' advantage.
National title game: It'll be a rematch between Alabama and Clemson with the same result. The Crimson Tide defense is both the best in college football and better suited to facing Watson than last year's team. The reigning national champions have too much size, speed and talent and will become the first 15-0 team of the modern era.
Couch
Alabama pummels Washington. Too much muscle and defense. Clemson gets the upset—in most people's view—over Ohio State behind a great defense and a great quarterback in a great game.
Title game: Clemson has had to live with last year's outcome all year. It has been through pain, then hangover, then recovery. Now it has all the momentum. Clemson: national champion.
Felder
Washington is going to make some big plays, but Alabama wears on teams. The Huskies, especially with the front-seven injuries, just won't have the depth to keep up with the Tide. I expect the same game we've seen several times. It's tight through 30, and then, as we close in on minute 45, the dam breaks, and it is tough to stop Alabama. Clemson, with its elite defensive line, is going to make sledding tough for the Buckeyes. While the Ohio State secondary is awesome, all it takes is a few big plays for the Tigers to score, and that's what we're going to get.
Second time is the charm for Watson. He shredded Alabama a season ago, and I expect the same thing to happen in this rematch of a title game. Watson vs. Hurts is only "fair," because Alabama is viewed as a superteam. This Clemson team recognizes that three plays cost it a national title a season ago: losing contain on a kickoff return, Bama retrieving its own pop-up onside kick and the coverage bust that gave Howard a walk-in touchdown. It's ready. It'll make Alabama beat it, not let mistakes do it in.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
