10 Most Surprising Players in the Early Portion of the 2016-17 NBA Season
The 2016-17 NBA season is littered with unexpected performances, both good and bad—all of which are worth ample discussion.
But 'tis the season for drinking out of half-full glasses, so let's ignore the bad-news bombshells and relish in some feel-goodz.
Surprise performances come in all forms. There are superstar eruptions, which see up-and-comers and fringe stars making large-scale leaps. There are role-player risings that feature supporting reserves playing like borderline cornerstones. And then there are unrenowned climbers—swelling in status from perceived nobodies and youngsters who seldom registered on anyone's radar.
All of these minor miracles should be absorbed with a shred of skepticism. After all, it's still kind of early.
At the same time, it's not that early. The 2016-17 campaign is no longer in its infancy, and the chance that these unanticipated ascents become the new normal grows with each passing game.
Honorable Mentions
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James Harden, Houston Rockets
If you predicted James Harden would welcome the move to point guard by averaging 27.8 points and a league-leading 11.6 assists, have yourself a cookie—the super-indulgent, mega-unhealthy kind.
If you say you also saw him carrying the Houston Rockets to the Western Conference's third-best record and emerging as an MVP favorite, let it be known that no one believes you.
Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers
Much of the offensive zip Julius Randle enjoyed at the beginning of the season has faded. His decision-making is regressing, and he is somehow playing out of control but not especially fast.
Even when he struggles, though, it's hard not to marvel at how far he's come. The Los Angeles Lakers have turned him loose as a distributor and scorer, and he's still playing the best defense of his career.
Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
After last season, it shouldn't surprise us that Kemba Walker is averaging 23.3 points on career-best shooting percentages, 5.0 assists and 1.5 steals.
But then you realize he's helping the Charlotte Hornets hang around the top 10 in points scored per 100 possessions with less offensive talent than last year. And then you realize he's working his butt off on defense (most of the time).
And then it hits you: Walker has been the Eastern Conference's best point guard.
Somehow, we were simultaneously ready and unprepared for his persistent rise.
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Could we have expected Russell Westbrook to average a triple-double? Of course not.
Then again, with Kevin Durant gone and the Oklahoma City Thunder tailor-made to let Westbrook run rampant, could we have expected anything less? Not really.
Thus, the dilemma: Westbrook's accolades are both surprising and not at all shocking.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
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Maybe you foresaw Giannis Antetokounmpo's rise to superstardom. None of us, though, could have predicted it happening this quickly.
"We have special players that we come across," Milwaukee Bucks head coach Jason Kidd said after a Dec. 1 victory over the Brooklyn Nets. "LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan. And Giannis is one of those rare players we'll be able to enjoy for a long time."
Antetokounmpo has a long way to go before his name becomes synonymous with NBA Mount Rushmore staples, but Kidd's assertion isn't far-fetched.
No one in league history has ever matched the 21.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 2.1 blocks and 2.0 steals the Greek Freak is averaging per game. He leads the Bucks in all five of those categories, a feat James likes to reserve for himself.
People talk about point centers in jest. Antetokounmpo is the real deal—an actual cross between a 1 and 5, and everything in between. He leads the Bucks in assist percentage, and John Henson, an actual center, is the only teammate who has contested more shots around the rim.
Antetokounmpo still isn't shooting threes at a high clip, but it doesn't matter. He reaches the rim at will and puts down more than half of his overall looks. Plus, his jumper is coming together. He works on it at practices and is shooting nearly 40 percent between 16 feet and the three-point line.
A first-career All-Star selection won't do his surge adequate justice. But the general public is still adjusting to this different reality—to Antetokounmpo's new default setting.
MVP contention will have to wait until next year.
Harrison Barnes, Dallas Mavericks
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Harrison Barnes hasn't been good enough to save the Dallas Mavericks from a season of ruin, but he's been much better than expected outside the comfy confines of the Golden State Warriors' superstar-stuffed offense.
As Jonathan Tjarks wrote for The Ringer:
"It’s hard to imagine how bad the Mavs would be if Barnes hadn't suddenly decided to channel Dirk Nowitzki after Dirk was sidelined with a lingering Achilles injury. Barnes is averaging 21.3 points on 46 percent shooting with the Mavs, doubling his career scoring average while maintaining his efficiency, a combination that almost never happens.
He's also doing it as an isolation scorer, trailing only Russell Westbrook in terms of the number of one-on-one shots taken this season, despite rarely creating his own offense with the Warriors.
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Though Barnes' numbers have suffered a slight dip since late November, the sentiment remains the same. He has doubled his career scoring average (20.6 points). His three-point clip has fallen below 35 percent, but his 46.1 percent shooting from the floor overall outpaces his career mark (44.8).
With a dearth of healthy second options around him, Barnes continues to rely on isolation sets to get by. James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony all have more one-on-one possessions to their name, but Barnes' lone-man touches account for a greater share of his offensive looks than any other player.
It is not the least bit concerning that Dallas doesn't score much more efficiently with its newly crowned alpha in the game. That's a lament for when the Mavericks have an actual NBA roster to complement Barnes.
Besides, Barnes has been a defensive revelation for head coach Rick Carlisle. Years of playing up a position with Golden State equipped him to guard either forward slot—versatility the Mavericks need to successfully pull off a quick reboot following this lost 2016-17 campaign.
Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks
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Build an NBA rookie ladder that includes only newbies from the 2016-17 draft. In other words, forget Joel Embiid exists.
Who would get your vote from that pool for Rookie of the Year?
If it's not Malcolm Brogdon, you're doing it wrong.
Selected with last June's 36th overall pick, Brogdon is lording over just about everyone else in his class. He leads all beginners in assist percentage and three-point accuracy. He ranks 13th in total minutes but sixth in total points. He has a top-six steal rate and is averaging more win shares per 48 minutes than any other first-year guard.
Milwaukee hasn't shied from throwing him into the everyday fire: Brogdon is fifth on the team in total minutes and has seen time at both guard slots. And Kidd is more than willing to stick this 6'5" frame on small forwards.
Brogdon has been so good that Rashad Vaughn, last year's 17th overall selection, can't crack the rotation. (The Bucks have him shuffling to and from the D-League.)
It's still early and yada, yada, yada. But Brogdon has carved out a role on a squad with playoff aspirations, routinely outplaying every wing on the roster who isn't a future MVP candidate—a twist that no one, not even Bucks stans, could have forecasted with a straight face.
Wilson Chandler, Denver Nuggets
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Scenario: You are Wilson Chandler. You're 29. You missed all of last season after having surgery on a torn labrum in your right hip. You are on a stacked-but-developing Denver Nuggets outfit that plays musical chairs with its rotation out of necessity.
Are you really going to have a career year under those circumstances?
Apparently, yes.
Chandler has played more minutes in the past, but his 18.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game are personal bests. His three-point conversion rate has climbed above 35 percent for the second time during his career, while his player efficiency rating (17.3) has never been higher.
"Wilson's versatility is what sets him apart," Nuggets head coach Mike Malone said, per Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal. "He can guard four positions. You can play him at the 3, the 4 and, if we go really small, maybe at the 5. To have his scoring, his defense, his toughness, all his intangibles…he's like a free-agent signing."
Not even Chandler's mid-career breakout has been enough to rescue the downtrodden Nuggets from a treadmill of disappointment. But they would be much worse if it weren't for his individual heroics. Denver goes from playing like a 36.8-win contingent with Chandler to a 22-victory afterthought when he takes a seat, according to NBA Math.
Entering the season, you would have expected the Nuggets to endure that kind of drop-off when Danilo Gallinari and Nikola Jokic rode the pine. Perhaps you thought one or more of Gary Harris (injured), Emmanuel Mudiay or Jusuf Nurkic would become that important. But Chandler is supposed to be a glue guy—a role player.
Instead, at least for this season, he's morphed into Denver's best player. And the Nuggets can only hope his recent rash of right hip soreness isn't a more sinister setback.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
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Enthusiasts of "The Process" were perfectly within their rights to promote Joel Embiid as the Rookie of the Year favorite once Ben Simmons went down with a broken right foot.
But Process mastermind Sam Hinkie himself couldn't have counted on the 22-year-old turning in one of the most dominant rookie campaigns of all time.
Let's get statistical:
- Embiid is joining Tim Duncan, Alonzo Mourning, Hakeem Olajuwon, Shaquille O'Neal and David Robinson as the only rookies to collect at least 18 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game.
- Among those players, only Duncan, O'Neal and Robinson registered a better defensive box plus-minus—except they, unlike Embiid, all repped above-average defensive teams.
- Even after accounting for more rest nights, Embiid is on course to become the first player in NBA history, of any experience level, to tally 1,200 points, 150 blocks and 75 made three-pointers.
- The Philadelphia 76ers post the net rating of a playoff team whenever Embiid is in the game (plus-0.2).
- Embiid leads all current rookies in points, blocks and made free throws despite placing outside the top 10 in total minutes.
- While Embiid is recording the highest usage rate of any beginner who ever cleared 20 minutes per game, his effective field-goal percentage (50.5) is better than the present-day average (50.4)
Whatever anyone expected from Embiid, it wasn't this—immediate, irrevocable stardom.
Sean Kilpatrick, Brooklyn Nets
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Sean Kilpatrick finished last season getting plenty of buckets for the Nets, so we knew he could score.
We did not know he could do so much more...all while getting additional buckets.
All of Kilpatrick's shooting percentages have taken a hit, but that comes with the territory. He has the Nets' second-highest usage rate and spends more time playing against starters even when he comes off the bench.
Head coach Kenny Atkinson also has Kilpatrick splitting his minutes between the 1 and 2 spots though he never profiled as an emergency floor general, let alone an everyday offensive orchestrator.
Injuries (Jeremy Lin) and inexperience (Isaiah Whitehead) forced Brooklyn's hand, and Kilpatrick has delivered in a big way. He has more than doubled last season's assist percentage, and the Nets offense improves by 5.6 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup.
Kilpatrick's turnover rate has skyrocketed, but he's run more pick-and-rolls than anyone else on the team. And while he's allowing opposing ball-handlers to shoot almost 50 percent in those situations, he's shown enough for Atkinson to use him as the primary defender against pick-and-roll playmakers. He forces turnovers nearly 18 percent of the time on those plays—which, for context, is slightly more than Jimmy Butler, who has defended roughly the same number of such sets.
Make no mistake, Kilpatrick is very much a work in progress. But when all's told, the Nets may have a more defensive-savvy version of career-year Lou Williams on the docket—or, quite possibly, someone who's better.
Mike Muscala, Atlanta Hawks
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Remember when the Atlanta Hawks needed Kris Humphries? Or when they were going to actually play Mike Scott?
Mike Muscala doesn't, either.
Not one of Atlanta's other reserves has seen more court time than the second-string big. Muscala, in fact, has logged almost as many minutes through 24 appearances (528) as he did during last season's 60 outings (565) total.
Significant spikes in playing time are supposed to coincide with diminished efficiency, but not in this case. Muscala is shooting at a career clip and has noticeably improved his per-36-minute splits. Here's the list of players this season who have played as much as Muscala while matching his scoring (14.4), three-point makes (1.4) and true-shooting percentage (65.1) per 36 ticks:
- Stephen Curry
- Kevin Durant
Oh, and just for kicks, Muscala is doing work as a rim protector, too. The Hawks allow more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, but he's limiting opponents to under 43 percent shooting around the rim. Two other players have challenged as many point-blank attempts and done the same:
- Rudy Gobert
- Kristaps Porzingis.
Smaller bursts of court time buoy Muscala's prorated contributions, but joining the offensive company of Curry and Durant while also associating himself with Gobert's and Porzingis' interior defense is beyond difficult no matter how you spin it.
Larry Nance Jr., Los Angeles Lakers
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Just how well is Larry Nance Jr. playing for the Lakers? Zach Lowe of ESPN.com gave us the skinny:
"Nance has exceeded the Lakers' sunny Year 2 expectations, especially after knee issues nagged at him most of last season. He has been an explosive jack-of-all-trades for a five-man bench crew that outscored opponents by almost 10 points per 100 possessions -- a mammoth margin -- before injuries busted up Luke Walton's rotation.
Nance looks healthy and bouncy again; he's shooting a preposterous 81 percent in the restricted area, fifth best among 271 players who have attempted at least 20 such shots, per NBA.com. He moves the ball, cuts hard, and generally does all the gritty things that make the people around him better.
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Granted, there remain a few warts to work out: Nance cannot function as more than a pick-and-roll diver or ball-trailer on offense. Los Angeles gives him the freedom to fire away on long twos and three-pointers, but his touch is shaky, if nonexistent.
Still, Nance puts in work. The Lakers' crappy defense approaches watchable status with him hustling end-to-end, and his offensive limitations are tolerable when he's surrounded by playmakers who live to draw double-teams. Tarik Black and Williams are the only everyday players with a better net rating, and Nance is the lone Laker having an above-average impact on both offense and defense.
Most will cringe at the notion of Nance being the Lakers' second-best player this season, but it's on the table.
Otto Porter, Washington Wizards
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Otto Porter's explosion is a double-edged sword for the Washington Wizards.
On the one hand, this is the player the team thought it drafted—that potential third star to complement Bradley Beal and John Wall.
Porter is averaging 13.9 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game while shooting 53.4 percent overall and putting down 41.3 percent of his triples. No one else is matching all of his numbers. And Porter is shimmying between the 3 and 4 with ease, allowing Washington to play big or small with minimal transition.
On the other hand, Porter is about to get multi-syllable paid.
Front office executives have already told Lowe that Porter will likely field max-contract offers when he reaches restricted free agency in July. Washington just maxed out Beal last summer, gave a pile of money to the injured Ian Mahinmi and have nearly $97 million committed to next year's ledger before factoring in a raise for its combo forward.
Do the Wizards max out another member of a fringe-postseason core? Do they deal Porter as one of the headliners for a blockbuster return that brings back a cheaper, more established veteran? Should they stand pat and see if his rise is for real, then make a decision closer to the February trade deadline or over the offseason?
These are questions the Wizards must address—Porter's supernova contract year demands it.
Lou Williams, Los Angeles Lakers
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And the winner of the NBA's "Most Random Career-Best Performance of the Year" award goes to...Lou Williams.
In no way was the stage set for Sweet Lou to average a career-high 19.3 points per game while notching some of his best shooting percentages: The Lakers have a bunch of backcourt kiddies, Williams is on the wrong side of 30 and Byron Scott wasn't walking through that door.
One could have even questioned whether Williams was going to play much under this new regime and scheme. But head coach Luke Walton is throwing him on the hardwood for a cool 25.1 minutes per game, and he's responded by posting the team's best net rating among players not named Ivica Zubac.
It's both scary and amazing how much the Lakers depend on Williams. They score like the Association's sixth-best offense when he's on the court, with a net rating (plus-4.3) that would rank eighth overall.
Few players have been more valuable on the offensive end; Williams has spent most of his time at point guard but makes seamless switches to the 2. The way he blends scoring with playmaking and efficiency is typically reserved for the most elite names.
Four players aside from Williams are clearing 19 points per game, posting an assist rate north of 23, shooting better than 40 percent from deep and recording a turnover rate below 13:
- Mike Conley
- Marc Gasol
- Kyrie Irving
- Kemba Walker
I now leave you to cope with living in a world in which Lou Williams will receive, and deserve, plenty of All-Star consideration.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary commitments via Basketball Insiders. All information accurate leading into Sunday night's games unless otherwise noted.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
