Predicting Winner for Every SEC Football Bowl Game
After a disappointing season on the gridiron, the SEC will try to rebound with a solid bowl season for the second year in a row.
Last year, the league blazed through the postseason with a 9-2 record, culminating in Alabama winning another national championship.
Though the league limped along this year with the mighty Crimson Tide going undefeated but nobody else finishing with fewer than four losses, the conference will try to save some face against foes from other conferences in the bowl games.
Alabama could carry the torch for the league with another championship (again), as head coach Nick Saban's top-ranked team is the favorite to repeat in the College Football Playoff. Speaking of favorites, according to OddsShark.com, the SEC is favored to win seven of its 12 bowl matchups.
If that takes place and the league goes 7-5, that would be mediocrity. Which, would be, well, par for the course after this season. Though the Big Ten will hold the conference bragging rights this year, the SEC will try to end a frustrating year on a resounding note.
Let's take a look at the conference's 12 bowl matchups and predict the winner for each one.
St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. Mississippi State (Dec. 26)
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After a 5-7 season that saw disappointing losses, a slew of injuries and a transition to a new quarterback following school legend Dak Prescott, Mississippi State still received a record seventh consecutive bowl berth with a win over Ole Miss.
Several dominoes fell the last weekend of the season, allowing the Bulldogs to sneak into the postseason through the back door by virtue of having strong Academic Progress Rate scores. The bowl practice will be huge for a young program.
Head coach Dan Mullen's team will play another team that had a bizarre, but historic, season. The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks lost their first six games of the season, but after returning star quarterback Gus Ragland, they went on to win their final six games to get bowl-eligible. They are the first team to ever do that.
Because of that remarkable finish, they will play in their first bowl game in six years.
Unfortunately for Miami, it won't go well.
MSU has too much talent, and sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is ending his season on a high note. After some early growing pains, he passed for 2,287 yards and 21 touchdowns and added 1,243 yards and 14 TDs on the ground.
Though the Bulldogs have some depth concerns and defensive woes, they'll handle this MAC foe with ease.
Prediction: Mississippi State 41, Miami (Ohio) 24
Camping World Independence Bowl: NC State vs. Vanderbilt (Dec. 26)
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After ending their season with a win over hated rival Tennessee, there was a party on the West End as the Vanderbilt Commodores and head coach Derek Mason were dancing on the sideline.
They'll try to keep waltzing into Shreveport, Louisiana, as VU will try to win its seventh game of the year in a bowl showdown with North Carolina State. That would be a huge turnaround for a team that looked lost a season ago, as Mason's team took down the Vols and Georgia this season.
Mason didn't just dance. After rocking a black vest in the win over UT, he celebrated the bowl berth with some new shoes, too.
"They said, 'Mase, I got something for you,'—thinking that I wouldn't wear them," Mason told the Tennessean's Adam Sparks. "But they got the wrong guy. I pulled them out of the box, put them on, and they feel good. We're going bowling."
It's a big step for the program, and it would be even bigger if they could pull off a win over NC State.
The Wolfpack had their own up-and-down season, finishing with a 6-6 record. Like the Commodores, their signature win of the season came against heavily favored state rival North Carolina.
Head coach Dave Doeren's team has some offensive weapons, but Vanderbilt can combat that with Zach Cunningham and Co. on defense. And with quarterback Kyle Shurmur clicking along with star running back Ralph Webb, VU is playing some good football.
That will continue in the Independence Bowl.
Prediction: Vanderbilt 27, NC State 23
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Kansas State (Dec. 28)
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They were ranked fourth in the initial College Football Playoff rankings after a 7-1 start, but the Texas A&M Aggies faded down the stretch for the third year in a row under head coach Kevin Sumlin.
A 1-3 finish left them at 8-4, and now, the Aggies will try to rebound with a bowl victory over Bill Snyder's Kansas State program in the Texas Bowl.
That won't be easy.
The Wildcats (8-4) are tough, led by Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Jordan Willis. It will be a litmus-test game for him as Myles Garrett, who's widely considered the most talented defensive end in the country, will be on the other side.
Snyder always has his team motivated, and Sumlin must try to get a disappointed group up for this game after another late collapse. The coach needs a win to stay in his fanbase's good graces as folks may be getting restless in College Station.
It's also the final game for a slew of Aggies, including a handful of juniors who may declare for the NFL draft. Transfer quarterback Trevor Knight will play his final game as a senior, and he'd love to sling the ball around to the stable of able receivers for A&M.
But, in the end, the team that plays the best defense will win this showdown. That nod has to go to the Wildcats.
Prediction: Kansas State 24, Texas A&M 23
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Birmingham Bowl: South Florida vs. South Carolina (Dec. 29)
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You may think South Carolina wouldn't be excited about heading to Birmingham, Alabama, for its bowl game under first-year head coach Will Muschamp.
That wouldn't be a correct assumption.
After failing to make it to the postseason last year, the Gamecocks broke in true freshman quarterback Jake Bentley this season and rebounded from a 2-4 start to get bowl-eligible. A big home upset of Tennessee was the high-water mark of the season, and South Carolina has a lot on which to build for the future.
The Gamecocks will continue that journey with an eye toward the past, in historic Legion Field against a strong South Florida team.
"Growing up in the Southeast, sitting in Rome, Georgia," Muschamp said, according to the State's Ben Breiner. "Watching the Iron Bowl, watching those game through the years, first two Southeastern Conference Championships in 1992 and 1993 at Legion Field, the home of the Southeastern Conference, so we're certainly excited."
That excitement may turn to reality when they face one of the most dangerous teams in the postseason in head coach Willie Taggart's Bulls. Star dual-threat quarterback Quinton Flowers would make them a formidable foe for anybody, much less a young Carolina team.
The Gamecocks have some young weapons themselves, such as freshman runner Rico Dowdle. But it's still a tall order to ask Muschamp's team to bring home a victory.
Prediction: South Florida 36, South Carolina 20
Belk Bowl: Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech (Dec. 29)
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Arkansas' topsy-turvy season will have one final twist when the Razorbacks play against ACC Coach of the Year Justin Fuente's high-flying Virginia Tech Hokies in the Belk Bowl.
The Hokies are led by JUCO transfer quarterback Jerod Evans, who lit the college football stat books on fire in his first year in Blacksburg. Though it was disappointed in not completing the upset against Clemson in the conference championship game, VT had a nice rebound season.
It will be a tough draw for head coach Bret Bielema's Razorbacks.
So, how do you handicap a game featuring the Hogs? It's virtually impossible. They could show up in Charlotte and be the team that decimated Florida in a game that was never really close. Or they could be the one that melted in the season finale against Missouri.
Likely, Bielema will have his team up and ready to play, and this is a group of Hogs that can score some points led by quarterback Austin Allen and the running back duo of Rawleigh Williams III and Devwah Whaley.
But even if Arkansas plays its best game, the Hokies aren't going to be a pushover.
This should be an intriguing matchup, and it also may be one of the most entertaining bowl games to watch. In the end, Fuente's group will outscore Bielema's, and that temperature may begin to rise a bit in Fayetteville.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 38, Arkansas 33
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Georgia vs. TCU (Dec. 30)
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The margin between success and disappointment is narrow in college football, and Georgia first-year head coach Kirby Smart saw his approval rating drop considerably with a season-ending loss to rival Georgia Tech in Sanford Stadium.
He'll try to make the red-and-black faithful happier by coming away with a win over Gary Patterson's TCU Horned Frogs in the Liberty Bowl.
The Bulldogs should do just that.
It's been a frustrating and forgettable year in the first season after the Trevone Boykin era in Fort Worth. At 6-6, there's been no real way to get a handle on the Frogs, who have wins over Texas and Baylor and played Oklahoma close but lost in a big way to Kansas State, West Virginia and Oklahoma State.
Georgia has been just as maddening. A last-second loss to Tennessee on a Hail Mary was a huge blow, and the upset setback against Vanderbilt was an embarrassing black eye for the program.
But UGA broke in a true freshman quarterback in Jacob Eason, and the running back duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel got healthier as the year progressed. The time off should do those two some good, and the Bulldogs should be fresh when this game rolls around.
Georgia looks like the more talented team, and so the nod in this one goes to Smart's bunch to end the year on an uptick.
Prediction: Georgia 27, TCU 20
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Nebraska vs. Tennessee (Dec. 30)
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There's no getting around the disappointment in Knoxville this year after a 5-0 start wilted into an 8-4 final record that saw Tennessee lose in stunning fashion down the stretch against South Carolina and Vanderbilt.
With all the talent the Volunteers have on their roster, there's no excuse for the mediocre season, and there is some consternation surrounding head coach Butch Jones' fourth season at the helm of the Vols.
UT could ease some of that with a win when it travels down Interstate 40 to Nashville to take on Mike Riley's Nebraska Cornhuskers in the first trip to the Music City Bowl for UT since an overtime loss to North Carolina back in 2010.
The Vols still have plenty of high-powered weapons on offense, led by senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who will be playing his final game at UT. The running back duo of Alvin Kamara and John Kelly has looked strong since Jalen Hurd left the team.
Defensively, though, it's been a different story. UT spent $1 million to hire away Bob Shoop from Penn State, and his first year as defensive coordinator has been a disappointment. A barrage of injuries didn't help the Vols, but there was still no excuse for not being able to stop anybody all season.
Down the stretch was an especially horrible run of games, including gashings by South Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt in the ultimate 2-2 stretch to end the season without a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game or the Sugar Bowl—both of which were in reach.
Now, the Vols will have to salvage something against the Cornhuskers. They should be able to do it.
Prediction: Tennessee 41, Nebraska 35
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Louisville (Dec. 30)
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This really should be a fun matchup as LSU's talented defense gets its crack at Heisman Trophy front-runner Lamar Jackson and Louisville's high-powered offense.
For head coach Bobby Petrino's team, it's going to be bittersweet, considering the Cardinals expected to be contending for the College Football Playoff with their star signal-caller leading the way until the final part of the season when losses to Houston and Kentucky ended any hopes of that.
Jackson was inconsistent at times in those losses, and he'll try to return to form against one of the most talent-laden defensive units in the country led by coordinator Dave Aranda. The Tigers could come out clicking now that Ed Orgeron's interim label has been shed and the player favorite now has the full-time gig.
This would be a big stage to show that was the right choice.
LSU should have stud running back Leonard Fournette, who was hurt a large part of the season. This will be his final game for the Bayou Bengals as he leaves to prepare for the NFL after the bowl. His replacement, Derrius Guice, already has proved he's more than capable of shouldering the load in the post-Fournette era.
The season improved once LSU turned to Purdue transfer Danny Etling at quarterback, and though he's no Jackson, he'll be a key if the Tigers are going to win this game.
I think they ultimately will, as Petrino's team has showed a lack of inspiration late in the year. That may continue in Orlando, and if it happens, the Tigers are too good to beat.
Prediction: LSU 34, Louisville 30
TaxSlayer Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky (Dec. 31)
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From the hot seat to the catbird's seat, Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops certainly turned things around in Lexington this year.
Not only are the Wildcats bowl-eligible for the first time in his four-year tenure, they won seven games and upset Louisville with Jackson running wild behind center, too.
For the first time in four years, UK didn't run out of gas on defense down the stretch, actually looking better on that side of the ball at times late than it did in a disastrous first third of the season.
A resurgent running game on offense with Stanley "Boom" Williams and star freshman Benny Snell Jr. leading the way was the story on offense, and JUCO transfer quarterback Stephen Johnson was steady as well in helping Kentucky go to a level it hasn't under Stoops.
The Wildcats' reward will be playing Paul Johnson's Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, fresh off their upset of Georgia in Athens. They've already beaten two SEC opponents this year, upending Vanderbilt earlier in the season, and they'll try to make it three with the Wildcats.
Tech is not one of those teams you want to draw in the bowl game because of just how difficult its running game is to defend in the triple-option attack. Even having a little under a month to prepare sometimes isn't enough, and UK doesn't have the best defense, anyway.
So, expect there to be a lot of rushing yards being churned out in this one, and expect Paul Johnson and Co. to get the SEC trifecta with a win.
Prediction: Georgia Tech 31, Kentucky 30
Outback Bowl: Florida vs. Iowa (Jan. 2)
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Florida will try to end its late-season slide with a win in its home state against Iowa.
The Gators should be able to handle the Hawkeyes, even despite all the injuries head coach Jim McElwain has been forced to endure over the course of a trying last few weeks of the regular season.
After getting handled by Arkansas, UF dug deep for a gritty performance in a win over LSU that clinched the SEC East. That was the last high point of the season, however, as the Gators lost 31-13 to Florida State and then got dismantled by Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.
Now, Florida is 8-4 and headed for the Outback Bowl, where it will try to win its ninth game and salvage a moderately successful season under McElwain, though it wasn't anywhere up to the high standard the fans are used to in Gainesville.
If they're going to get that victory, the Gators once again must be carried by their talented defense, led by a strong secondary and linebacker Jarrad Davis, as well as a group of young, talented pass-rushers. UF is good at all three levels on that side of the ball, and though it allowed 54 points to Alabama, that isn't the norm.
On the other side of the ball, however, Florida has troubles. Whether Austin Appleby or Luke Del Rio starts at quarterback, the Gators must get the ball to playmakers such as Antonio Callaway and Brandon Powell to have a strong chance at scoring enough to win.
This will be a rugged, defensive battle. In those cases, you've got to like the Gators.
Prediction: Florida 23, Iowa 17
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Oklahoma (Jan. 2)
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Like a lot of its SEC brethren, Auburn didn't have the finish to the season it would have liked, losing its last two conference games to rivals Georgia and Alabama.
Again, like a lot of SEC teams, the Tigers dealt with the injury bug during that time as the league beat up on itself most of the season. AU quarterback Sean White and star running back Kamryn Pettway missed a chunk of time in the losses, and the Tigers weren't the same without them.
Those guys should be back and good to go for the bowl.
Head coach Gus Malzahn began the season on the hot seat, received a bit of a reprieve with some success throughout the extent of much of the regular season, and now there are more frustrations on the Plains after losses to the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide.
Their reward? Playing a resurgent Oklahoma team in the Sugar Bowl.
Despite the late losses, in a down year in the SEC, Auburn wound up the highest-ranked league team that wasn't in the College Football Playoff, so the Tigers earned a spot in New Orleans. Though the Sooners are playing some excellent football, this won't be an easy draw for OU, either.
The story of Auburn's season (besides Pettway's emergence) has been first-year defensive coordinator Kevin Steele's resurgent defense. Besides Alabama, AU had the stingiest unit in the SEC and one of the best in the country.
The Tigers will have their work cut out for them against Oklahoma, but this has all the trappings to be a great game. It could go either way, but Oklahoma and quarterback Baker Mayfield get the slight nod because of his experience in big games.
Prediction: Oklahoma 26, Auburn 23
College Football Playoff Semis at Chick-Fil-a Peach Bowl: Alabama vs. Washington (Dec. 31)
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Alabama is once again left carrying the banner for the conference as Saban's team looks like the toast of college football for yet another season.
Rinse. Repeat.
The top-ranked Crimson Tide will put their unblemished record on the line against Chris Petersen's Washington Huskies in Atlanta on New Year's Eve, and Alabama looks like a team right now that has few chinks in its armor.
Offensively, true freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has added a dimension to UA's unit that we haven't seen before in the Saban era.
Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin had a brilliant season calling plays for him, and the running back three-headed monster of Damien Harris, Bo Scarbrough and Joshua Jacobs attacked opposing defenses along with one of the most talented receiving corps in the nation.
There are so many star players Saban has stockpiled that when star linebacker Shaun Dion Hamilton went out in the SEC Championship Game with a season-ending knee injury, the Crimson Tide just replaced him with a former 5-star in Rashaan Evans. He made a handful of big plays in the win.
On defense, Alabama may have one of the most complete units of all time. The Crimson Tide have pass-rushers galore, a dynamic linebacking corps led by Butkus Award winner Reuben Foster and an opportunistic secondary that has playmakers all over the field who can take interceptions and turn them into touchdowns.
So, yeah, good luck, Huskies.
Petersen has assembled a quality team in Seattle with a sound defense, a quality running game and budding star quarterback in Jake Browning who makes it all tick. But the Huskies haven't seen anybody with this level of talent, and if it's close for a half, that's all it will be.
Bama rolls.
Prediction: Alabama 37, Washington 17
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
