Missouri vs. Tennessee: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Last year, Tennessee traveled to Columbia, Missouri, for former Tigers head coach Gary Pinkel's final home game and easily dispatched an offensively inept Mizzou team by a 19-8 score that was much more thorough than the final indicated.
Under new coach Barry Odom, the Tigers offense this season is much more advanced. Unfortunately for Mizzou, its defense has let it down in a 3-7 start to the season.
The Volunteers got back on track the past two weeks in lopsided victories over Tennessee Tech and Kentucky. They'll try not to do scoreboard watching this weekend needing LSU to beat Florida to have a shot at the SEC Championship Game.
"We're concerned with only one stat, and that's to win," Jones said at his Monday press conference, according to WBIR.com's Mark Bergin. "In terms of scoreboard watching, we don't ever look up at the scoreboard. We have to worry about the things that we can control. Control the controllables."
That would be beating Mizzou and then closing the season with a road victory against Vanderbilt. If they do that, Atlanta is attainable. The first step is this weekend. Let's take a look at all you need to know for the game.
Date: Saturday, Nov. 19
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Place: Neyland Stadium
TV: CBS
Spread: Vols by 16, according to Odds Shark
Tennessee Keys to Victory
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Tighten up
Tennessee's defense is riddled with injuries, and it certainly looked like it against Kentucky.
On the first play from scrimmage, UK quarterback Stephen Johnson kept the ball on a zone read and ran 75 yards in a shocking start. Stanley "Boom" Williams took it the rest of the way on the next run.
It was that kind of day for the Vols, who had to outscore the Wildcats in a 49-36 frenzy. UK racked up 635 yards and 29 first downs for a UT defense that didn't have any answers. Now, the Vols must face a Mizzou team that is second in the league in total offense.
UT must do a better job fitting runs and defending the pass. New starters such as linebacker Elliott Berry and defensive tackle Kyle Phillips have to stay more disciplined against the run. If not, this is the kind of game that will become a shootout in a hurry.
Keep Dobbs ascending
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs was back to his old ways against Kentucky, leading the Vols in rushing and passing while racking up 370 total yards and five touchdowns.
He was the dynamic, dual-threat force that made the Vols a preseason SEC East favorite.
Now, UT needs him to carry the offense against a Mizzou defense that hasn't had an answer for anybody this season. The Tigers are dead-last in the league in total defense, and Dobbs needs to disrupt them. He could have a big day, and if he does, the Vols will roll.
Special K's
So far, the Vols haven't missed departed running back Jalen Hurd's production. That's because sophomore John Kelly has been exceptional.
When Alvin Kamara came back against the Wildcats, he was electrifying, too. The Vols need to keep pounding the ball, because both of those guys are big-play threats. They need to break a few against the Tigers.
Missouri Keys to Victory
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Air assault
Drew Lock was one of the biggest recruits in the Missouri program's history, a 4-star talent who elected to stay home and play for the Tigers.
After a forgettable freshman season, he's proving why this year. Lock still has some accuracy struggles, completing just 54.8 percent of his passes. But he's averaging 281.1 yards per game and has tossed 21 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions.
He could win the biggest game of his brief career this weekend, but to do that, he needs to pick on the Tennessee cornerbacks not named Cameron Sutton. Those guys have struggled this season, and Lock has the talent to make them pay for mistakes.
Defensive turnaround
The Tigers have been universally poor on defense, currently sitting 13th in the league against the run and 12th against the pass.
That's not good news for a team that now has to play a Vols offense that has regained its rushing form after plenty of early-season struggles.
Kamara and Kelly both run hard, and they've been consistently strong since Hurd quit the team. Add in Dobbs' rushing ability, and the Tigers have a lot to defend this weekend. They've got to put pressure and a spy on Dobbs, force him to throw the ball and try to make the Vols one-dimensional.
That's their best case for a win.
Start strong
Last weekend, Mizzou took a lot of the doubt out early against Vanderbilt, quickly jumping on the Commodores and going on to a win.
It'll be more difficult to do that this week, but if they score quickly against the Vols and get a couple of stops, make a big turnover and start to believe, anything can happen. That's how South Carolina upset the Vols, and the Tigers need to take a similar path.
Tennessee Players to Watch
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Cameron Sutton
Though he had to shake off a little bit of rust, Tennessee star cornerback Sutton returned against Kentucky and made an immediate impact.
He broke up a couple of passes, and while he needs to get that hurt ankle back into game shape, it was obvious he's the Vols' best defensive back, even though he wasn't 100 percent.
Vols head coach Butch Jones thinks his star will be even better this week.
"Having Cam back on the field was great to see," Jones said, according to the VolQuest.com staff. "Obviously not playing, Cam has to do some things in staying in coverage and eye discipline. He also drove and break on the football and had some PBUs. Just getting back into the flow of the game, and he will be a better version of Cam Sutton this week due to the playing time."
Alvin Kamara
Welcome back, AK.
After being a game-time decision, the Vols' junior star returned from a two-game hiatus and, like Sutton, made his presence felt quickly. Against the Wildcats, he had 128 yards on just 10 carries and scored two touchdowns.
The Vols are thrilled to have their top playmaker back for the stretch run, and considering how many issues the Tigers have experienced stopping the run this year, he could have another big game Saturday.
Kyle Phillips
Last year, there was some reluctance on Phillips' part as a true freshman to slip inside and play defensive tackle.
Now, the Vols need him there with all the injuries they've experienced up front, and Phillips is responding and thriving in the role. He still has some improvements to make against the run, but he was in the backfield time after time against the Wildcats, finishing with two tackles and two pass deflections.
UT needs him to keep making an impact.
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Missouri Players to Watch
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Damarea Crockett
Everybody entered this season talking about how Ish Witter needed to have a better season to fuel Mizzou's offensive resurgence.
He's done well, but the biggest addition to the running attack has been Damarea Crockett, who leads the team with 837 yards (6.5 per carry) and nine touchdowns. It makes you wonder how the freshman from Little Rock, Arkansas, got away from Bret Bielema's Razorbacks.
There's no doubt the 5'11", 220-pound youngster is a load who is a prime-time SEC back. Mizzou fan site Rock M Nation said recently that Crockett "is Missouri's future, and the future is now."
That's tough to argue.
J'Mon Moore
One of the coolest names in the SEC also just happens to be having one of the best seasons.
The Mizzou wide receiver has a big body and is also speedy enough to run away from defenders. He's been Lock's biggest target this season, catching 47 passes for 743 yards and scoring eight touchdowns.
Moore is second in the league in receiving yards behind Ole Miss tight end Evan Engram, and in a league with a lot of playmakers at receiver, he's standing out.
Charles Harris
It seems every year the Tigers have a pass-rushing phenom who winds up one of the nation's top defensive linemen before going on to a big NFL career.
This season, Charles Harris is the guy, tied for fourth in the SEC with eight sacks. He's been one of the few bright spots on Mizzou's defense during a forgettable season. Considering new head coach Barry Odom is a defensive-minded coach, it's difficult to imagine it'll continue like this.
The Tigers need a big game from Harris, who needs to be breathing down Dobbs' neck all afternoon. If he is, he'll force some mistakes.
What They're Saying
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"We're in a two-game playoff," Jones said after Tennessee's win over Kentucky last weekend, according to ESPN.com's Greg Ostendorf.
Ostendorf went on to say the Vols were college football's "team of destiny" during the season's first half before reality (and injuries) set in.
"There's still hope, though," he wrote. "This isn't the Tennessee team many of us envisioned before the season. It's not the team that began the year in the Top 10. But one Florida loss to LSU, and the Vols are back in the driver's seat to win the East."
The Tigers got their first SEC win in 11 tries last weekend against Vanderbilt, and Odom enjoyed the win despite all the struggles the team has endured this season, according to GridironNow.com.
"They've invested a lot and it hasn't been pretty, but they continue to do everything that I've asked them to do," Odom said. "I'm glad that they finally got a little bit of success for working through that."
With so many injuries and issues on defense, Vols coordinator Bob Shoop can still point to one culprit why his unit has struggled so much this season. He told GoVols247's Ryan Callahan:
"I think the Achilles heel of this team—when look at it in the offseason, and when we look at it each week—has been the big plays. And, again, I keep saying it: It's not big plays. It's, like, monstrous plays. Everybody has a run 15 to 20 yards. Everybody gives up a pass 25 to 30 yards. But we're giving up ones—you're not going to have good run statistics when you give up two runs over 70 yards in a single game.
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Prediction
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Tennessee was supposed to roll through the final four SEC games of its season, but that got off to a shocking start with a road loss to South Carolina.
Still, the Volunteers find themselves with plenty to play for heading into the penultimate weekend of the regular season. If UT beats Missouri and Vanderbilt and Florida loses to LSU, the Vols will make it to Atlanta for their first SEC Championship Game appearance since 2007.
Even though this season hasn't gone exactly the way they'd hoped, and even though a mighty Alabama team that beat UT by 39 earlier this year awaits in the conference championship game, that's still an attainable goal for Jones' team.
That's why they won't falter this weekend.
Unfortunately for UT, it doesn't control its own destiny anymore. But the Vols can still take care of business, and they will against a Missouri team they outclass from a talent perspective.
Offensive coordinator Mike DeBord has struggled with his play-calling at times this year, but he was on point against Tennessee Tech and Kentucky. He'll devise a productive scheme again this week, and though the Tigers will score, they won't do anywhere near enough.
The Vols will roll in their home finale.
Prediction: Vols 48, Missouri 27
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