Way-Too-Soon Overreaction to Megadeals of 2016 NBA Free Agency
Welcome to the NBA's Overreaction City. Population: You.
Gleaning profound conclusions from small samples is an art nowadays. We're about to grab a brush and paint last summer's biggest free-agent deals with overstated takeaways.
Focus lies with those who joined new teams over the offseason, because it's easier to spot changes, both good and bad, when players are in new digs. Our scope will be further limited by free agents who negotiated themselves one of this year's top-50 salaries in their new deal.
While this is a tongue-in-cheek exercise, it is not without merit. These exaggerations are rooted in truths and areas of actual concern.
For example (and spoiler alert): When we say the Golden State Warriors made a mistake by letting Harrison Barnes go instead of trading Klay Thompson into the Philadelphia 76ers' cap space, we're merely nodding to the former's onset success with the Dallas Mavericks.
Get it? Good. Let's hyperbolize.
Ryan Anderson, Houston Rockets
Contract: Four years, $80 million
First Impression: James Harden deserves another raise.
Houston Rockets head coach Mike D'Antoni is taking the "Never, ever, ever, ever play him without James Harden" approach to Ryan Anderson's minutes. And it's working...in a manner of speaking:
| With Harden | 204 | 44.3 | 48.8 | 114.1 | 109.8 | 4.3 |
| Without Harden | 13 | 33.3 | 0 | 64.6 | 121.6 | -57.0 |
Anderson is not alone in his dependence on Harden. Houston's net rating plummets by 36.6 points per 100 possessions when the latter steps off the floor. But more of Harden's passes go to Anderson than any other teammate, and he has assisted on three times as many of the power forward's buckets (18) as the rest of the team...combined (six).
This isn't a problem so long as Anderson keeps shooting 50 percent on Harden's dishes. Or maybe it is. Who the heck knows?
For now, D'Antoni just needs to make sure Anderson is attached at Harden's hip.
Harrison Barnes, Dallas Mavericks
Contract: Four years, $94.4 million
First Impression: Golden State almost ruined Harry B's career.
Barnes leads the Mavericks in scoring with 20.8 points per game. His usage rate is six points higher than it ever was with the Warriors. He has hit more three-pointers (eight) than Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala have combined to make (seven). His effective field-goal percentage (52.9) is way better than that from Thompson (45.8).
He has a higher player efficiency rating (17.7) than Patrick McCaw (15.9).
And to think, the Warriors never let Barnes be more than a glorified fourth option during the Steve Kerr era.
Granted, Barnes is putting up numbers, as an offensive minus, for a one-win Mavericks squad that plays two of its starters more than 37 minutes per game. But let's not trifle ourselves with (wholly applicable) counternarratives just yet.
Bismack Biyombo, Orlando Magic
Contract: Four years, $68 million
First Impression: This is so not fine.
Most of us spent the offseason wondering whether it was a good idea for the Orlando Magic to make Bismack Biyombo one of their two highest-paid players when Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic were already on the payroll.
Fewer than 10 games into the season, we have our answer: Orlando needs to break up its frontcourt logjam.
Biyombo is playing fewer minutes than he did with the Toronto Raptors, and the offense, a general disaster, self-destructs with him in the game. The Magic don't have the requisite shooters to use Biyombo as the rim-runner he needs to be, and that, by default, mitigates the value of his shot-blocking and rebounding.
All the "Give it time, and they'll be fine" caveats don't apply here. There isn't a workable scenario in which the Magic make something of this season, let alone Biyombo, without offloading one of their three primary bigs.
Luol Deng, Los Angeles Lakers
Contract: Four years, $72 million
First Impression: W-A-S-H-E-D.
Luol Deng is averaging career lows in minutes, points, overall field-goal percentage and assists. Even this early, that's not a statistical anecdote the Los Angeles Lakers want for their highest-paid player.
Perhaps the strain of playing roughly one bajillion minutes for Tom Thibodeau in Chicago is catching up with him. Looking back at that part of his career, Deng could easily be 31 going on 49. Or maybe per-game numbers don't tell the story.
Shouldn't it matter that his usage rate has plunged by design, as head coach Luke Walton bestows more responsibilities upon the kiddies? Or that playing fewer minutes because of those young 'uns, namely Brandon Ingram and Larry Nance Jr., will keep Deng fresher for longer?
Or that, according to NBA Math, Deng still profiles as an extremely valuable defender (first column)?
Yes, it should matter. It won't unless Deng's numbers improve a tick, but it should.
Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
Contract: Two years, $54.3 million
First Impression: Kevin Durant is the most efficient scorer of all time.
Durant is posting a true shooting percentage—cumulative measurement of two-point, three-point and free-throw accuracy—north of 68 to start the season.
The last player to clear this benchmark while averaging 20 or more points per game? That would be no one.
Seven appearances with the Golden State Warriors is all we need to know that Durant will become the first. That almost makes up for the adverse impact his arrival is thus far having on Golden State's once-stingy defense.
Al Horford, Boston Celtics
Contract: Four years, $113.3 million
First Impression: Bring back Evan Turner!
The Al Horford-era Boston Celtics are supposed to be both offensive and defensive powerhouses. But something's amiss here, per Bleacher Report's Michael Pina:
The Celtics fielded a top-five defense in 2015-16. Clearly, the Horford addition has come at its expense, and yet he's proved statistically replaceable on offense. What gives?
Injuries.
Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart and Horford, who is currently going through the NBA's concussion protocol, have yet to be healthy at the same time. Kelly Olynyk is still slogging through shoulder issues, too. The death knell cannot be sounded for Boston's defense until this implosion survives the play of all these important pieces.
In the meantime, to get through the nostalgic pangs you feel when thinking about Evan Turner's defense under head coach Brad Stevens, remember that the Celtics are playing like a top-seven squad on both sides of the floor whenever Horford is actually in the game.
Dwight Howard, Atlanta Hawks
Contract: Three years, $70.5 million
First Impression: Dwight Howard, reborn.
Howard is once again fronting one of the NBA's two best defenses. All is right with the world. It's good to see he's no longer playing like trash, as he did in Houston.
Except:
| With Rockets (three seasons) | 17.8 | 60.1 | 13.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| With Hawks (2016-17) | 21.7 | 61.7 | 15.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 |
Could it be that Howard wasn't actually bad with the Rockets? That he's just more comfortable and healthier with the Hawks? That he's basically the same player with a larger role?
Nah.
Saying that he transitioned from Dwight Howard in Orlando, to a poor man's Hasheem Thabeet in Los Angeles and Houston, then back to Dwight Howard in Atlanta, gets more #clickz.
Ian Mahinmi, Washington Wizards
Contract: Four years, $64 million
First Impression: Already Washington's defensive savior.
How is Ian Mahinmi already the Washington Wizards' defensive knight in shining armor when he has yet to play a game while recovering from meniscus surgery?
Well, you see, the Wizards rank 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions, and Mahinmi placed 10th among all centers in points saved on the less glamorous end last season, according to NBA Math. It doesn't take a pre-teen genius to connect the dots.
The Wizards are a cool fourth in shot attempts allowed inside the restricted area per game. But teams needn't attack the rim to hurt them; the three-point defense is terrible. Besides, opponents are shooting better than 61 percent around the basket. (That's not good.)
Fortunately for Washington, Mahinmi is more than halfway through a four-to-six-week timetable. Unfortunately for Washington, he won't solve collapses beyond the arc.
Timofey Mozgov, Los Angeles Lakers
Contract: Four years, $64 million
First Impression: Wait, four years and $64 million? That was a real contract?
The Lakers are paying Timofey Mozgov a top-50 salary to barely play 20 minutes per game and let opponents shoot better than 55 percent at the rim.
It's still early and all that, but as of now, there is no overreacting to how horrible this deal looks—unless, of course, you thought his contract was a prank in the first place.
Joakim Noah, New York Knicks
Contract: Four years, $72.6 million
First Impression: Best point guard on the Knicks roster.
Joakim Noah, not Derrick Rose, has the highest assist percentage among New York Knicks starters.
Noah, not Rose, is a net plus when playing beside Kristaps Porzingis.
More Knicks players are shooting 50 percent off Noah's passes than Rose's dishes.
And it's Noah, not Rose, who owns New York's best offensive rating.
Nevermind that Noah is averaging under 25 minutes per game as the supposed face of the league's worst defense. The Knicks have needed a legitimate floor general for years and finally found one—and he's only costing them double what the Brooklyn Nets are paying Jeremy Lin over the next three seasons.
Chandler Parsons, Memphis Grizzlies
Contract: Four years, $94.4 million
First Impression: Are the Grizzlies actually paying him as much as Harrison Barnes?
Chandler Parsons' Memphis Grizzlies tenure isn't off to a good start. He missed the first six games of the season while working his way back from meniscus surgery that prematurely ended 2015-16's campaign. Then, in his Nov. 6 debut against the Portland Trail Blazers, he missed all eight of his shots and was a team-worst minus-11.
Ah, well. At least he said his knee wasn't an issue, per the Commercial Appeal's Geoff Calkins:
"Pretty much the only good news I got for you guys. My knee feels fine, which is awesome. That was the goal, to be able to get through these first couple of games, not have to be pulled out, not have any soreness or swelling. So that’s a positive to take out of this.
"
Parsons' shooting and playmaking will come in time. He won't always be the injury liability he became during his time with the Mavericks. He is worth a Barnes-level investment, and Memphis has no reason to worry itself.
Right?
Evan Turner, Portland Trail Blazers
Contract: Four years, $70 million
First Impression: His three-point shot is cured!
As it turns out, players really do shoot threes better in Rip City. Take Evan Turner: He was shooting triples at a 30.5 percent clip before signing with Portland; now he's putting down a personal 42.9 percent.
Sure, he's only launched a total of seven three-pointers, but who cares? After all, it's more than six! It doesn't matter that he has the worst net rating on the team, or that he's taking fewer shots without attacking the rim as much.
And it most certainly doesn't matter that he, as Portland's third-highest-paid player, ranks seventh on the team in total minutes.
Because, quite obviously, he's a legitimate three-point sniper now.
Dwyane Wade, Chicago Bulls
Contract: Two years, $47 million
First Impression: Chicago (finally) has Kyle Korver's replacement.
The Chicago Bulls haven't deployed a shooting guard who can catch fire from long distance for seasons at a time since they sold—yes, sold—Kyle Korver to the Hawks.
Until now.
Some people questioned spacing with Dwyane Wade. He plays next to three other non-shooters—Taj Gibson, Robin Lopez, Rajon Rondo—in the starting lineup. And entering this season, Stephen Curry hit more threes in 2015-16 (402) than Wade drained for his 13-year career (386).
But the joke's on all those haters, because Wade is shooting a totally sustainable, not-at-all-skewed 43.5 percent from downtown amid near-career volume. And he's doing this for the Association's third-best offensive team. The Bulls are pumping in more points per 100 possessions without him, but that just proves stats are stupid when they don't perfectly align with our arguments.
Korver, the scrub that he's become, is putting down a paltry 43.3 percent of his three-balls. Hopefully he'll consider taking jump-shot lessons from Wade this summer.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate leading into Tuesday's games. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter: @danfavale.
