NCAA Football Rankings 2016: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 9
October’s final college football Saturday shaped up as an important one. It’s the final week before the first College Football Playoff rankings drop Tuesday night, giving teams an important chance to bolster resumes before the playoff chase takes a big turn.
Seven Top 10 teams played road games, including a pair of Top Five teams that took on ranked foes away from home. That created serious potential for a far different Associated Press Top 25 poll Sunday afternoon, and the week lived up to the hype.
Seven ranked teams lost, including a trio of Top 10 teams, and only five FBS unbeatens now remain. One Power Five league saw its College Football Playoff hopes all but vanish.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here’s a look at the projected AP Top 25, with teams that will see their stock rising and falling this week:
| Rank | Team | Previous | Record | Week 9 Result |
| 1. | Alabama | 1 | 8-0 | Open Date |
| 2. | Michigan | 2 | 8-0 | Won 32-25 vs. Michigan State |
| 3. | Clemson | 3 | 8-0 | Won 37-34 vs. Florida State |
| 4. | Washington | 4 | 8-0 | Won 31-24 vs. Utah |
| 5. | Louisville | 5 | 7-1 | Won 32-25 vs. Virginia |
| 6. | Ohio State | 6 | 7-1 | Won 24-20 vs. Northwestern |
| 7. | Wisconsin | 11 | 6-2 | Won 23-17 (OT) vs. Nebraska |
| 8. | Texas A&M | 9 | 7-1 | Won 52-10 vs. New Mexico State |
| 9. | Florida | 14 | 6-1 | Won 24-10 vs. Georgia |
| 10. | Nebraska | 7 | 7-1 | Lost 23-17 (OT) vs. Wisconsin |
| 11. | Auburn | 15 | 6-2 | Won 40-29 vs. Ole Miss |
| 12. | Oklahoma | 16 | 6-2 | Won 56-3 vs. Kansas |
| 13. | Baylor | 8 | 6-1 | Lost 35-34 vs. Texas |
| 14. | Florida State | 12 | 5-3 | Lost 37-34 vs. Clemson |
| 15. | LSU | 19 | 5-2 | Open Date |
| 16. | Western Michigan | 20 | 8-0 | Open Date |
| 17. | West Virginia | 10 | 6-1 | Lost 37-20 vs. Oklahoma State |
| 18. | North Carolina | 21 | 6-2 | Open Date |
| 19. | Utah | 17 | 7-2 | Lost 31-24 vs. Washington |
| 20 | Colorado | 23 | 6-2 | Open Date |
| 21. | Penn State | 24 | 6-2 | Won 62-24 vs. Purdue |
| 22. | Virginia Tech | 25 | 6-2 | Won 39-36 vs. Pitt |
| 23. | Oklahoma State | NR | 6-2 | Won 37-20 vs. West Virginia |
| 24. | Boise State | 15 | 7-1 | Lost 30-28 vs. Wyoming |
| 25 | Houston | NR | 6-2 | Won 31-24 vs. Central Florida |
Moving Up
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy were hailed as Big 12 contenders following a 10-3 record and Sugar Bowl berth in 2015, but they fell out of the Top 25 after a wild, controversial loss to Central Michigan and haven’t been back since. That’s about to change.
The Cowboys are contenders in a wide-open league, and they showed it with a 37-20 victory over No. 10 and previously unbeaten West Virginia. The Mountaineers actually outgained OSU 421-358, but the Cowboys defense forced three turnovers, which was key.
At 6-2, 4-1 in league play, Oklahoma State has as good a chance as anyone to win the Big 12, which doesn’t have a clear favorite or serious College Football Playoff contender.
Wisconsin
Despite coming off a 10-win season, Wisconsin was pegged for the middle of the Big Ten West. That seemed a little low, and the Badgers have spent the first two months of the season proving people wrong.
They grabbed the nation’s attention with a 16-14 upset of then-No. 5 LSU, but a brutal five-game stretch featuring three road games and four teams ranked in the Top 10 at the time (Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State and Nebraska) would test them. How did they turn out? Pretty good.
A gutty 23-17 overtime win over the No. 7 Cornhuskers cemented the Badgers as the Big Ten West favorite. They finished the stretch 3-2, with the only losses coming as seven-point defeats to the Buckeyes and Wolverines, and the OSU loss came in overtime. Not bad.
The Badgers survived blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead and threw for just 114 yards as a team between Alex Hornibrook and Bart Houston, but they got 120 yards and the game-winning touchdown from tailback Dare Ogunbowale, rushing for 223 yards as a team. They’ll jump back into the Top 10 and be a legit threat to win the league.
Florida
It hasn’t always been pretty. Or thrilling to watch. But for the second time in as many seasons, Jim McElwain has Florida in control in the SEC East. A grinding 24-10 win over Georgia in Jacksonville improved the Gators to 6-1 overall, 4-1 in league play. They’re two games ahead of preseason favorite Tennessee, and while trips to Arkansas and LSU loom, they look like the favorite to win the East and go back to Atlanta.
The Gators will capitalize on the chaos ahead of them and jump into the Top 10. There’s a lot of season left, but that’s an impressive accomplishment for McElwain’s staff.
Moving Down
Baylor
Even before Saturday, the Big 12’s College Football Playoff hopes were slim, with unbeaten Baylor and West Virginia representing the league’s best chances. West Virginia’s loss at Oklahoma State made those hopes even slimmer. And Saturday night in Austin, Texas, slim officially left town.
Trent Domingue’s 39-yard field goal with 46 seconds left lifted Texas to a 35-34 win over the No. 8 Bears, ending their hopes of an unbeaten run through the Big 12. The Bears had a 34-26 lead with 8:54 left but couldn’t hold an up-and-down Longhorn offense off the scoreboard.
Baylor put up 624 yards of total offense but couldn’t stop Texas tailback D’Onta Foreman, who carried 32 times for 250 yards and two touchdowns. With TCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech still left on the schedule, the road doesn't get easier, and Baylor will have to fight back outside the Top 10.
Nebraska
Mike Riley badly needed a good start to his second season at Nebraska following 2015’s 6-7 debacle, and he most certainly got it this fall. The Cornhuskers entered Saturday’s Big Ten West Division showdown at Wisconsin 7-0 and No. 7 nationally. A soft schedule helped; Nebraska’s best win was over then-No. 22 Oregon, which has struggled this fall.
That will change quickly; Nebraska finishes the season with three of five games (at Wisconsin, at Ohio State, at Iowa) on the road. Saturday, the Huskers showed that they might not be as ready for the spotlight as their fans had hoped with an 23-17 overtime defeat to the Badgers.
Senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. struggled with a pair of interceptions, as Nebraska generated only seven points through three quarters. The Huskers showed moxie to outscore Wisconsin 10-0 in the fourth quarter and send the game to overtime, but couldn’t match Ogunbowale’s 11-yard touchdown run.
It was a tantalizing but ultimately frustrating evening in Madison for the Big Red.
Florida State
2016 was supposed to be the year that proved 2015 was an aberration for Florida State. A year ago, the Seminoles’ run of ACC and national title/College Football Playoff contender status ended with a 10-3 season. A loaded offense returned, backed by an allegedly improving defense. That would be enough for the Seminoles to push their way back to national relevance, right?
Not quite. Saturday’s 37-34 loss to No. 3 Clemson dropped FSU to 5-3, matching last year’s loss total. Florida State had the Tigers on the ropes, leading 34-29 with 3:23 to play, but couldn’t slow down Clemson’s offense, which immediately put together a five-play, 75-yard touchdown drive capped by Jordan Leggett’s acrobatic 34-yard touchdown catch-and-run. Dalvin Cook’s 19-carry, 169-yard, four-touchdown night went for naught.
We aren’t even to Halloween, and Florida State is a non-factor in the national title picture and ACC Atlantic race. That has to be tough to swallow in Tallahassee.
Boise State
Boise State appeared to have a solid hold on the "Group of Five’s" New Year’s Six bowl berth entering the season’s second half. The Broncos had a relatively easy season-ending schedule, with the toughest game being Saturday’s date at improving Wyoming.
Or so it seemed, right?
The Cowboys and coach Craig Bohl dealt Boise a major blow with a 30-28 defeat. The Broncos built a 21-7 second-quarter lead but couldn’t put Wyoming away, and the Cowboys sealed the win with a stunning safety with 1:25 to play. Suddenly, Boise is out of prime position for the New Year’s Six and its Mountain West division, all at the same time. It’s a surprising development that leaves Western Michigan as the best Group of Five team as we enter November.
West Virginia
One of the best stories of this season’s first half resided in Morgantown, West Virginia. Dana Holgorsen began the year on the hot seat, but the Mountaineers’ 6-0 start rocketed them to No. 10 nationally and gave him some much-needed job security.
However, the second-half schedule is much tougher, starting with Saturday’s trip to a potent Oklahoma State team. The Cowboys showed that Holgo’s group won’t have an easy run, ending its unbeaten run with a 37-20 victory. Quarterback Mason Rudolph was efficient, throwing for 273 yards and three touchdowns, and WVU’s Skyler Howard had a poor day, passing for just 212 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
The Mountaineers will drop out of the Top 10, and the Big 12’s already slim College Football Playoff hopes took another blow, with Baylor the only unbeaten left in the league.
Utah
Utah is one of the nation’s more underrated programs under Kyle Whittingham’s guidance. The Utes won a combined 19 games in 2014 and 2015 and are on pace for another excellent mark this fall in the Pac-12 South with a 7-1 record entering Saturday’s visit from No. 4 Washington. This was expected to be the Huskies’ biggest test yet, and Utah made certain of that.
The Utes rallied from an early two-touchdown deficit and battled back to tie the game at 24 on Troy Williams’ 24-yard touchdown pass to Evan Moeai with 9:07 remaining. But a crucial special teams error spelled doom, as Washington’s Dante Pettis broke free for a 58-yard punt return touchdown with 3:25 left that sealed the Huskies’ 31-24 win.
Utah held UW star quarterback Jake Browning to 186 yards for two touchdowns and an interception, and Joe Williams continued his impressive comeback story with 172 rushing yards and a touchdown on 35 carries. The Utes are firmly in the mix for the South title and could get another shot at the Huskies in the Pac-12 title game, but until then, Pettis’ punt return will haunt them.
Tennessee
With losses to Alabama and Texas A&M, Tennessee doesn’t control its own destiny in the SEC East. The Vols entered Saturday a game behind Florida, which still has trips to Arkansas and LSU remaining, although they’d win a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Gators.
Butch Jones’ bunch just had to take care of business against a struggling South Carolina team. They didn’t do that, playing a sloppy, disjointed game and ultimately falling 24-21 when a last-ditch 58-yard field goal fell short.
A team that was expected to win the SEC East and potentially challenge for the College Football Playoff now has three SEC defeats. That’s a tough pill to swallow for Volunteers fans who felt certain this would be the year they’d take the next step back toward gridiron glory.
Navy
Navy and its flexbone-option offense moved into the Top 25 after handing Houston its first loss of the season in a wild 46-40 victory. But the Cougars have struggled since, barely holding off Tulsa and losing to Memphis. Now it appears the Midshipmen will fall out of the poll along with their AAC rival.
Navy ran into a buzzsaw versus South Florida Friday night, even if the 52-45 final score doesn’t show it. The Midshipmen defense couldn’t slow down the Bulls offense, which built a 42-14 halftime lead. Navy outscored USF 24-7 in the fourth quarter to make the final result appear more palatable, but it’s hard to sugarcoat giving up 629 yards of total offense, and Navy will drop out of the Top 25 as a result.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
