SEC Football Q&A: Can 2 Teams Make the College Football Playoff?
We are one week away from the release of the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Yet, the playoff is all we can talk about.
Alabama is full steam ahead toward its third berth in as many years, but new potholes developed over the last month as LSU and Auburn have found a groove.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
What is the likelihood of two teams from the SEC making the CFP? That question and more are answered in this edition of SEC Q&A.
The College Football Playoff has explicitly stated for two years that it exists to place the four best teams in the nation together to settle it on the field. Yet, the first bullet point listed on the CFP's website regarding the selection criteria explicitly states that conference championships will be emphasized.
Yes, that is contradictory, because winning or losing a team's geographically determined conference has little to do with whether a team is one of the four best teams in the country.
So, unless there are no other options, I've always maintained that two teams from the same conference is highly unlikely. In fact, you'd almost have to have a year like 2011, when No. 2 Alabama finished higher than No. 3 Oklahoma State in the final BCS standings, and eventually beat No. 1 LSU. The battle became over the second and third spots, but there was no doubt that both were better than No. 4 Stanford.
That said, if Team Chaos rules the day and leaves the SEC no other options, I absolutely think that the SEC would be the best-positioned of any conference to get more than one team in. Yes, more so than the Big Ten.
Why?
Well, because if Alabama loses once, it would jump to the top of list of all nonconference champions.
Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M are still alive and kicking in the SEC West, and could play in the SEC Championship Game if they win out and get help. Florida still only has one loss and could get hot down the stretch and upset the Crimson Tide in Atlanta. The same can be said for Tennessee if the Vols get help and somebody knocks off the Gators.
Two teams from the SEC in the College Football Playoff is certainly a long shot based on the reasons I mentioned. It isn't a "no shot," though, especially if Alabama loses once in the regular season or in the SEC Championship Game.
In that scenario—as with any playoff scenario that we discuss in late October—it all depends on what the landscape of college football looks like on Selection Sunday.
Buying: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Texas A&M
Only a fool wouldn't load up on Alabama stock. Even though the price would likely be high—after all, it's the top-ranked team in the country—the ceiling hasn't even been touched.
Auburn and LSU will also be purchased for obvious reasons: Auburn because of its defense, ability to run effectively, kick well and the play-calling groove offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee and quarterback Sean White has fallen into since Lashlee took over that responsibility for the LSU game in late September; LSU because the defense is solid and interim head coach Ed Orgeron has made the proper changes to the offense, including becoming far less predictable than former head coach Les Miles was.
Both might lose to Alabama, but they're still quality teams that are getting better week by week.
I'll still buy Texas A&M too, because getting eaten by the Bama gorilla is nothing to be ashamed of. They still run the ball effectively with Trayveon Williams and Keith Ford, have a dangerous multidimensional offense and a stellar front four. That'll win a lot of games.
Holding: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss
I'll burn through the East teams quickly.
Florida is still a mystery to me, due in large part to the unknowns associated with quarterback Luke Del Rio. We only saw him for two-and-a-half games against weak competition early in the season, and he wasn't sharp in his return against Missouri a few weeks ago. Georgia is as Jekyll and Hyde as any team in the country, Tennessee is all beat up and Kentucky still has games versus Georgia and Tennessee left to serve as barometers.
Ole Miss has been a massive disappointment due in large part to the mistakes quarterback Chad Kelly can't seem to avoid and the growth the offensive line just can't seem to make. That said, when the Rebels have "Good Chad" throwing the football, they're tough to beat. He just has to show up more often than he has this year.
Selling: South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State
Vanderbilt is too one-dimensional offensively and needed multiple special teams disasters to beat Georgia. Arkansas doesn't have it in the trenches this season. It's a rebuilding year for Mississippi State. Will Muschamp needs a few years to rebuild that South Carolina roster. Missouri's defense is atrocious, and one of the worst decisions of the offseason was first-year head coach Barry Odom changing up everything, including terminology, on that side of the ball—whether he feared that the book was out or not.
"@BarrettSallee Does LSU having a prop style QB bode well vs Bama? It seems Brandon Harris really struggled last yr.
— Jason (@Bravesoul79) October 24, 2016"
It'll help, without a doubt.
One of the reasons I was so down on LSU before the season—I picked the Tigers to finish fifth in the SEC West—was the square peg (dual-threat quarterback Brandon Harris) former head coach Les Miles tried to fit into a round hole (his ultra-conservative brand of offense).
Obviously, a lot has changed since then. Harris was replaced by Purdue transfer Danny Etling, Miles was replaced by defensive line coach Ed Orgeron and as mentioned above, Coach O has broken tendencies and worked hard to create offensive mismatches before the snap.
With that said, save for a brief time against Ole Miss last weekend, LSU's offense hasn't been put in situations where it has to throw to win games.
Can Etling do it against Alabama?
There's nothing to suggest that he can't, and the tweaks to the offense certainly make LSU look more comfortable when they're asked to stretch the field deep. But doing it when you want to and doing it when you have to are two entirely different things.
Alabama took Fournette away last year, but Coach O's Tigers will have a better shot this go-round with Etling under center.
"@BarrettSallee how long does Muschamp stay as a HC with this putrid record of offensive production?
— Ace Face Jax (@GoCubsGoAP) October 24, 2016"
For at least two more years, for sure.
The talent level at South Carolina just isn't there right now. When former head coach Steve Spurrier was leading the program to three straight 11-win seasons from 2011-2013, it did so with incredibly talented home-state players like running back Marcus Lattimore, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and defensive back Stephon Gilmore.
Spurrier coupled that crop of homegrown players with the development of a talented out-of-state quarterback in Connor Shaw and feasted on a down SEC East.
Those players haven't been going to South Carolina over the last few years, and the quarterback development hasn't been there.
But Muschamp did keep freshman wide receiver Bryan Edwards home last recruiting cycle, benefited from the presence of freshman quarterback Jake Bentley's dad, Bobby, being on staff and supplemented them with some solid regional talent like freshman running back Rico Dowdle.
It's just going to take time.
The options at quarterback heading into the season were former walk-on Perry Orth, true freshman Brandon McIlwain and Bentley—who reclassified from the 2017 class to the 2016 class this spring and should still be in high school right now.
It's one thing for a true-freshman quarterback to step into Alabama's loaded roster and succeed, but it's a completely different situation at South Carolina. It's a situation that demands patience, time and development.
Give Muschamp that.
Just because the first two months of his tenure in Columbia resemble the four years of offensive ineptitude at Florida doesn't mean that it'll stay that way forever.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of cfbstats unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information is courtesy of Scout. Odds provided by Odds Shark.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter: @BarrettSallee.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
