2016-17 NBA Season Predictions for Each Houston Rockets Player
According to margin of victory, the revamped Houston Rockets have been the NBA’s best team during the preseason, clobbering opponents by an average of 14.7 points, per NBA.com.
It’s preseason, though, and no one wins a title during the exhibition. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing one can glean from it, however, particularly when it’s a team like Houston where so many new players and a new system are involved.
New coach Mike D’Antoni’s “seven seconds or less” offense has been on full display. James Harden is looking like the perfect one to lead it, and everything is clicking. Houston has a league-best offensive rating of 113.2.
And we have a bead on how the pieces are going to fit together. Based on what we knew coming in and what we learned through the preseason, here is how the players stack up in H-Town.
Payers are ranked according to their importance to the team.
End of Bench
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13-15. Some combination of P.J. Hairston (F), Chinanu Onuaku (C), Gary Payton Jr (G)., Bobby Brown (G), Tyler Ennis (G) and Kyle Wiltjer (F).
Three of these guys will make the final cut, but there’s no telling which right now. The most likely scenario is Chinanu Onuaku or Kyle Wiltjer as a big and one of the guards.
Onuaku is the Rockets’ only draft pick from this year. Wiltjer was an undrafted free agent, but he’s playing better than Onuaku in the preseason and is shooting 52.6 percent from deep. With it looking increasingly like the Rockets aren’t going to come to an agreement with Donatas Motiejunas, Wiltjer is better suited to help fill that role.
As far as which guard sticks around, it’s a crapshoot, but Tyler Ennis has gotten the most minutes in the preseason if that’s any indication of coach Mike D’Antoni’s thinking.
With the Rockets’ affinity for using their D-League franchise Rio Grande Valley Vipers, there’s a good chance the rest of the guys get sent there. And the end of the bench could cycle quite a bit during the season depending on how everyone develops, whether D-Mo signs and how injuries impact the club.
12. Pablo Prigioni (PG)
Technically, Pablo Prigioni is the second-string point guard. In reality, he’s probably not going to get more than 15 minutes per night. He’ll offer some relief to the other guards who will be directing the offense: Eric Gordon, James Harden and Patrick Beverley. But he’ll be a secondary role player on the court and is there more for locker room leadership.
Predicted per game stats: 4.5 Points, 2.0 Assists, 0.4 Steals
11. Sam Dekker (SF/PF)
Sam Dekker spent most of his rookie season hurt, logging just six minutes with the Rockets. He did play another 163 with the Vipers, but that’s still not enough to learn anything. He’ll effectively be a rookie again, albeit a 22-year-old one who is NBA ready. If he can hit around 35 percent from three, he’ll be at the end of the rotation, challenging Montrezl Harrell for minutes.
Predicted per game stats: 5.4 Points, 2.3 Rebounds, 0.7 Threes
Top of Bench
2 of 7
10. Montrezl Harrell (PF)
At least initially, Harrell will be above Dekker in the rotation, though that could change as the season progresses. He gets the nod because he is a better defender and rebounder. He has the potential to be a version of the 2011-14 Chicago Bulls' Taj Gibson off the bench, bringing energy and aggressiveness on both sides of the floor. He’ll need to show an impact to keep Dekker from climbing over him in the rotation, particularly with D-Mo’s situation unresolved.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 7.3 Points, 5.4 Rebounds, .8 Blocks
9. Corey Brewer (SG/SF)
Corey Brewer has had a better preseason than his 2015-16 season. And D’Antoni’s wide-open style of basketball works for him. However, he is still not looking very good, shooting just 41.7 percent from the field so far. That’s better than last season’s 38.4 percent but hardly enough to justify major minutes.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 7.7 Points, 2.4 Rebounds, 1.1 Steals
8. K.J. McDaniels (SG/SF)
K.J. McDaniels has been terrific this fall, which is why I think he will have a breakout season. He’s shooting 54.1 percent from the field, 85.7 percent from the stripe and has several highlight alley oops off of Harden feeds. He’s playing exceptional on the other end as well. The Rockets’ defensive rating with him on the court is just 90.5. He’s a playmaker on both ends, and that fits beautifully with D’Antoni.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 9.1 Points, 4.7 Rebounds, 1.0 Blocks, 0.7 Steals
7. Nene (C)
Nene has been opening eyes in the preseason, averaging 22.4 points on 69.2 percent shooting to go with 9.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per 36 minutes. Now, all of that screams small-sample size and preseason disclaimer.
However, as a low-post scorer with a litany of moves and a field-goal percentage title (2010-11) on his resume along with that stretched-out court, it’s feasible he returns to his Denver Nuggets-level of production on a per-minute basis.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 11.3 Points, 7.1 Rebounds, 0.9 blocks
6. Eric Gordon (SG/PG)
Gordon already fits comfortably with the Rockets, and he’s just getting going. He’s averaging 20.5 points per 36 minutes and a 59.9 true shooting percentage through the preseason. Space City has an offensive rating of 123.2 with him on the court.
Gordon could quite easily be logging the minutes and scoring the points to win Sixth Man of the Year. More importantly, Harden will finally be able to watch a Rocket who can score points when he sits down.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 15.3 Points, 3.3 Assists, 1.1 Rebounds, 0.9 Steals
5. Patrick Beverley (SG)
3 of 7
Beverley is not the conventional “point guard.”
He’s more of an off guard, and now that Harden is the “points guard” maybe people will adjust to P-Bev not being the primary ball-handler and facilitator. Thus, let's just call Beverley what he really is: a shooting guard.
According to NBA.com, he was decent off the bounce last season, posting a 44.7 effective field-goal percentage. He was better on the catch-and-shoot, with a 61.3 effective field-goal percentage. He’s a ball-hawk defender, with tenacity and an attack mentality. That earned him a 2013-14 All-Defensive honor.
He’s a very nice complement to Harden on both ends of the court. He’s not an All-Star-caliber player, but he is what the Rockets need. If he can take the primary defensive duties at the point of attack and hit the threes Harden sets up for him, he'll be everything Houston wants too.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 11.1 Points, 3.7 Assists, 3.4 Rebounds, 1.4 Steals
4. Clint Capela (C)
4 of 7
The Rockets weren’t overly concerned about letting Dwight Howard go because they feel Clint Capela can fill in the spot; He certainly gave them reason to believe last year. According to ESPN.com, Capela’s defensive real plus-minus was plus-2.74, which is actually over a point better than Howard’s plus-1.62.
He also had a better block percentage according to Basketball-Reference.com (5.2 to 4.1). And his rebound percentage was nearly as good (18.5 to 20.2).
There are some things Capela will still lag behind in: He won’t have Howard's working defensive knowledge, and that will hinder the kind of communication you need from your best defensive big. But there won’t be as dramatic a fall-off on that end as some might think.
And with Capela’s rim-running and freakish athleticism, there will be some awe-inspiring highlight plays from him as well.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 12.7 Points, 1.5 Assists, 12.4 Rebounds, 1.4 Steals, 2.1 Blocks
3. Trevor Ariza (SF)
5 of 7
Trevor Ariza is significant to the Rockets because he is the only one of the starting five who is an asset on both ends of the court. He’s also the only one who has a championship ring.
Yet, he doesn’t have the skills to be the second scoring option, a role the Rockets gave him last season. And that extra burden drained him defensively too as Darren Yuvan from The Dream Shake points out:
"Ariza will still be the premier defender in H-town (arguably the only very good defender, depending on how Patrick Beverley’s knee heals). He’ll be asked to lock down the opposition’s best perimeter player many of nights, and he’ll also continue to show his versatility by guarding three positions.
But where we’ll finally see Ariza’s load lightened is on the offensive end. No longer will he carry the burden of the second scoring option. Ryan Anderson will step into that role behind Harden, and fellow newcomers Eric Gordon and Nene Hilario will also be asked to flex their offensive skill.
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Ariza has struggled with his shot in the preseason, hitting just 31.1percent from the field and 25.0 percent from deep, but that will come around.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 11.0 Points, 2.7 Assists, 3.9 Rebounds, 2.2 Steals
2. Ryan Anderson (PF)
6 of 7
Basketball is not just isolated pieces glued together. Sometimes there is a synergy, where the players are greater than the sum of their parts. Sometimes there is an “anti-synergy” where the pieces are less than the sum of their parts (c.f. the Chicago Bulls “Three Alphas”).
Ryan Anderson and Harden work together extraordinarily well on the offensive end. Anderson’s deep shooting opens the court for Harden’s drives. In turn, Harden’s defense-collapsing drives open up Anderson for his deep threes. It’s symbiotic.
According to NBAWowy.com, when the two have been on the court together, Anderson’s true shooting percentage is 62.5, and Harden’s is 64.9. The Rockets’ offensive rating is 114.8.
Of course, the question has been about the defense. And it’s not the disaster you might think. They’re giving up a defensive rating of just 105.2. Why is that? Justin Willard of Nylon Calculus might have the best answer:
"Basketball is a complex game, so the hand-wringing over the defense is missing a driving force: defenses are helped by good offense. If Houston sinks its baskets, then its defense will be in an advantageous position compared to a miss.
You don’t need a great cast to be decent on defense either. D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns were actually near league average most seasons even though they had two liabilities in Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire. And, finally, just consider this: last season was a disaster with several inexplicably awful seasons from players, but they were still a 0.500 team. It won’t take much to be a little better.
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Anderson might be a bad defender, but they were getting bad defense from the position last year—Terrence Jones and Motiejunas weren't exactly stoppers. At a minimum, Anderson doesn’t improve the situation, but he doesn't harm it either.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 20.1 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 0.5 Blocks, 3.1 Threes
1. James Harden (PG)
7 of 7
Harden seems to be taking well to D’Antoni’s offense.
His per-36 numbers from the preseason round to about 25 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds per night. Assuming the scoring numbers are going to up a bit and the assist numbers are coming down, Harden still has a chance to do something rare.
In 1972-73, Nate “Tiny” Archibald became the only player ever to lead the league in both assists and scoring. Harden can realistically do that this season, though Russell Westbrook will be going full Tasmanian devil for the Oklahoma City Thunder, and he could do the same.
Don’t look now, but if the Rockets are in contention for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, Harden has an excellent chance to be your next MVP. In addition to his highly efficient scoring, he has been dropping dimes like Damian Lillard can only rap about.
Failing that, Harden could be the first player in 26 years (and third ever) to average 25 points and 10 assists, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
There is the issue of the defensive end, for which he is virally ostracized, but bear in mind that Harden has played more minutes than any player in the league each of the last two seasons. Last year, he also defended the fifth-most shots. And when you factor in that, through passing or scoring, he accounted for 61.2 percent of the Rockets’ points when on the court, that’s a lot of weight he drags around.
Energy is finite, and having more offensive help, Harden might be able to invest more energy on the defensive end. He told Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical:
"“You’ve got a lot of guys taking nights off. My body is stable, so I play a lot of minutes. I’m always on the court. I’ve got to do so much. I’m not complaining about it. I’m not crying about it. It is what it is. I’m taking full responsibility of it. But I’ve got to figure out how to be most effective in those minutes.”
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The Rockets’ defensive rating is just 98.4 with him on, so that’s something to watch when the real games start. If Harden can get back to his 2014-15 level of play, he might be this season’s MVP.
Predicted Per Game Stats: 29.1 Points, 10.2 Assists, 7.4 Rebounds, 1.6 Steals
