2016-17 NBA Season Predictions for Each Cleveland Cavaliers Player
About to begin the defense of the franchise's first NBA title, the Cleveland Cavaliers' final roster is nearly complete.
With J.R. Smith back on board, fresh off signing a four-year, $57 million contract, the starting lineup is set in stone. Behind it lies a mixture of aging veterans and inexperienced guards, many of whom will be asked to take on larger roles.
In a recent survey of all 30 NBA general managers, Cleveland is the dominant favorite to once again represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals.
For this to happen, each Cavalier needs a precise role mapped out prior to the regular season—similar to what LeBron James did two years ago. Here's what to expect for each player as Cleveland prepares to defend its throne.
Nos. 14-11
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No. 14: Dahntay Jones, F
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 5.8 minutes, 1.5 points, 1.0 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 8.5 PER
Cleveland can only carry 14 players on its roster while Mo Williams officially goes through the retirement process, meaning Jones is no lock to make the team. DeAndre Liggins is also in the running due to his perimeter defense, but Jones should claim the end of the bench, as he's earned the respect of the locker room dating back to last season.
No. 13: James Jones, F
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 7.4 minutes, 3.2 points, 0.9 rebounds, 38.9 3P%, 10.5 PER
Now 36, Jones hopes to play two more seasons, and he admitted to Lang Greene of Basketball Insiders he's looking for more minutes this year.
"My shot isn’t going anywhere and I’m confident in my preparation and my approach so that when this team needs me to help, I’ll be ready," Jones said, per Greene.
Unfortunately for Jones, Cleveland has the role of veteran shooter secured. Thanks to the addition of Mike Dunleavy to complement Richard Jefferson and Channing Frye, look for Jones to play even less this season.
No. 12: Chris Andersen, C
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 10.2 minutes, 2.8 points, 3.7 rebounds, 0.5 blocks, 14.0 PER
A birdman in the hand is apparently better than two Russians in the bush, as the Cavs parted with Timofey Mozgov and Sasha Kaun in favor of Andersen.
Although he is the Cavaliers' oldest player at 38, Andersen had a tremendous preseason, posting 11.7 points, 10.9 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes of play. While Tristan Thompson and Kevin Love will dominate the frontcourt minutes, Anderson should get some run as a defender off the bench.
No. 11: Jordan McRae, SG
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 12.0 minutes, 5.6 points, 1.3 assists, 37.4 3P%, 12.3 PER
McRae led the Cavaliers' NBA Summer League team and preseason squad in scoring, but he has yet to do so as an efficient, off-the-ball option. He poured in a Cavs-high 14.0 points per night in exhibition action, although he did so on 38.4 percent shooting from the floor and 36.4 percent from deep.
With the potential to be a dynamite sixth man, McRae must adapt his style and improve his catch-and-shoot skills to earn court time next to James and Kyrie Irving.
Nos. 10-6
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No. 10: Kay Felder, PG
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 17.4 minutes, 5.4 points, 4.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 13.5 PER
Felder is the wild card in the rotation, as the Cavaliers need a point guard but don't know how much they can trust the rookie yet.
Matthew Dellavedova played nearly 25 minutes a night behind and next to Irving last season. Felder may not hit that total, but he should be a regular in head coach Tyronn Lue's rotation. He's already shown the ability to penetrate and find the open man this preseason, sparking daydreams of Boston Celtics floor general Isaiah Thomas.
No. 9: Mike Dunleavy, SF
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 15.2 minutes, 5.6 points, 1.8 rebounds, 41.0 3P%, 10.2 PER
After starting for the Chicago Bulls the past three seasons, the 36-year-old Dunleavy will share duties with Richard Jefferson for James' backup job.
The good news? Now receiving passes from James instead of Derrick Rose, Dunleavy's shooting percentages should see a nice bump. At 6'9", he'll be able to play power forward against smaller opponents and help Cleveland's spacing.
No. 8: Richard Jefferson, F
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 15.4 minutes, 5.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, 38.8 3P%, 9.8 PER
Because of their similar skill sets, Jefferson and Dunleavy may steal minutes from each other, but Lue would be wise to move Jefferson to full-time backup power forward behind Kevin Love, as he filled in admirably at the position during the NBA Finals.
Jefferson is Cleveland's fourth frontcourt member who is 36 or older, which is somewhat of a concern. Last season, he showed no signs of slowing down, however, playing 74 games and moving like someone 10 years younger.
No. 7: Channing Frye, PF/C
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 18.1 minutes, 8.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 41.0 3P%, 16.4 PER
Although Frye has topped a 40 percent success rate from three-point range just once in his career, expect to see a repeat performance this year.
After getting comfortable with his new team following a midseason trade, Frye caught fire in the playoffs, nailing 56.5 percent of his three-pointers.
Lue should use Frye as his backup center, creating an arc full of gunners ready to catch and shoot while also opening the paint. Frye needs to be a big part of the bench unit, and he should thrive with a full season in Cleveland.
No. 6: Iman Shumpert, SG
Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 25.2 minutes, 6.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 11.2 PER
It may be time to give up on Shumpert as an offensive threat and load defensive clips of Tony Allen into his phone instead.
After an awful 2015-16 campaign, expect Shumpert to be improved—hopefully on both ends—this season. He's dropped 12 pounds and looked quicker and more energized this preseason. Still, with his potential to be an elite wing defender, Cleveland needs him to not be an offensive liability when filling the team's sixth-man role.
5. J.R. Smith, SG
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Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 29.8 minutes, 11.7 points, 2.5 rebounds, 39.7 3P%, 13.2 PER
With Shumpert and McRae likely to see increased roles, don't be surprised if Smith takes a slight step back.
Cleveland's best returning three-point shooter, Smith will once again be carved into the starting lineup in the role of catch-and-shoot artist between James and Irving. However, Smith is far from just an offensive threat now, as he regularly draws the opponent's best offensive wing.
Smith registered the third-highest offensive rating on the team (110.5) last season on NBA.com, ranking behind only James and Love. His assist-to-turnover ratio (1.79) was the highest of any Cavaliers guard.
Finally with a long-term deal, the legend of Smith in Cleveland can only grow.
4. Tristan Thompson, C
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Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 32.1 minutes, 9.7 points, 10.8 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 16.7 PER
Expect a career year for Thompson as he slides back into a full-time starting role.
We know he can rebound (11.7 per 36 minutes last year, which was tops on the Cavs) and defend, but could a reliable jumper find its way into Thompson's game this season as well?
"He has been working on his jump shot, little 15-foot jump shot and he's gotten confidence in that so we're going to let him shoot some of those this year and shoot it with confidence," Lue said, per Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com.
"Each year you want to bring back something to your game where you get better and you develop. He's done that and he's put the work in this summer. We're going to see where he's at."
Thompson won't be needed for heavy scoring, given who he'll share the court with, but being able to shoot from outside the paint would be a huge addition to his game. He's the only returning member of the Cavs to not hit a three-pointer last year. (Even his backup, Andersen, connected on four of 14 attempts with the Miami Heat and Memphis Grizzlies last season.)
As long as no distractions make their way into his life, Thompson should enjoy a big 2016-17.
3. Kevin Love, PF
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Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 32.7 minutes, 17.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 19.5 PER
Love's scoring will see a jump this season after spending an offseason working on his game rather than rehabbing a dislocated shoulder (like last year).
Lue has expressed nothing but confidence in his three-time All-Star forward since taking over the reins, doing a better job of using him at the elbows as a shooter and playmaker.
With Thompson now in the starting lineup, Love's rebounding chances will shrink—Mozgov wasn't a strong rebounder, and Love was happy to gobble up all the extra opportunities. With Thompson rarely leaving the paint on either end, Love's lasting affair with the three-point line will result in a carom deficiency.
Ultimately, Love's play will be determined by his aggressiveness. Cleveland still needs his scoring, but using him as a shooter, rebounder, passer and occasional decoy will dictate his overall success.
2. Kyrie Irving, PG
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Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 34.5 minutes, 22.3 points, 5.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 21.6 PER
This is the year Irving vaults into superstar conversation.
Coming into the year healthy and riding a gold-medal run with the Olympic team, Irving's confidence and ability have never been higher. Of course, this is on the coattails of an outstanding Finals performance where he averaged 27.1 points on 40.5 percent shooting from deep.
Although playing alongside James, Irving has incorporated facets of another star's game.
"I told him, 'You want to have a Kobe mentality?'" Lue recalled to Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding. "'Kobe didn't give a f--k. He don't care. Whatever the outside is saying, he don't care. Kobe's going to be Kobe.'"
Still just 24, Irving always had the talent. He just needed the experience and guidance to thrive.
"After winning the championship last year, Kyrie had the chance to go win the gold medal. Coming back this year, you can tell he's really worked on his game—and he's worked on his body. He wants to take that next step. He's very capable of doing it," Lue told Ding.
With no proven backup behind him, expect big minutes and bigger production from Irving this year.
1. LeBron James, SF
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Projected 2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 34.8 minutes, 25.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 27.5 PER
What's a man to do after returning home and delivering the most championship-starved city in America a title?
Enjoy life.
While he isn't satisfied with the three rings to his name, much of the burden has been lifted from James' previously loaded shoulders. Consider this, per Rohan Nadkarni of Sports Illustrated:
"For the first time in his life, there is no pressure on LeBron James. He’s no longer expected to be the savior, not after already delivering a title to Cleveland in the most exhilarating way possible. LeBron is no longer dogged by the do-or-die consequences that followed him everywhere in Miami, and his decision to return home has been more than justified with last year's title.
This season, LeBron James can have fun.
"
From a role perspective, Lue should be cautiously monitoring his star's mileage. James still needs to see plenty of court time, but keeping him under 36 minutes a night at this point is a must.
Now sharing the floor with two prolific rebounders, watch for James' glass-cleaning numbers to drop while he picks up some of the assist slack from Dellavedova and Williams. James hasn't dropped below 25 points per game since his rookie season in 2003-04, so don't expect him to this year, either.
Maybe we can finally enjoy James and the sky-high production he'll provide.
Stats via Basketball-Reference.com unless cited.
Greg Swartz is the Cleveland Cavaliers Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @CavsGregBR.
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