Predicting Chicago Bulls' Final 15-Man 2016-17 Roster

The Chicago Bulls have played three preseason games, giving us the first hint of what they will look like this year and how the rotation may shake out.

Unfortunately, there’s only been hints, and there is more to be resolved. But we can at least start speculating.

With the exception of power forward, the starting five is set. After that, it’s a complete grab bag of what might happen.

More than most teams, the Bulls’ rotation will likely consist of a variety of lineups, where the players who fit best together will factor more than where they are in the rotation. There isn’t a big difference between the seventh player and the last, so there’s a good chance everyone gets involved.

Point Guard

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Point Guard

Starter	Rajon Rondo
Primary Backup	Spencer Dinwiddie
In the Mix	Isaiah Canaan, Jerian Grant

Rajon Rondo will start as the point guard and, in that role, he'll arguably be the most pivotal player on the team.

Hoiberg’s plan seems to center on imparting the offense to his veteran quarterback and letting him run the show. He told ESPN’s Nick Friedell:

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"I'm really excited about Rajon," said Hoiberg, who is entering his second year as the Bulls' coach. "He's a guy who can get into the paint and make plays. Obviously, being a guy who led the league in assists last year, averaging almost 12 and 12.

What I'm excited about is how smart and cerebral a player he is, how he can survey the floor and make the right read coming down. The more playmakers you have and the more guys who can get into the paint, the better off you are."

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Rondo has had his problems, but “stupid” has never been one of them. He’s one of the higher IQ players in the league, and it might be that the honor of being entrusted with a complex offense is what will finally endear him to a coach.

When Rondo sits, the second unit will be led by either Denzel Valentine as a point forward or Spencer Dinwiddie. The latter has gotten the most minutes of the backups so far; he’s the one with the most experience (two seasons in the NBA), and he’s looked the best.

Also, Valentine sprained his ankle in the first game and hasn’t played since. So we don’t know who will get more minutes when he’s healthy. That’s relevant because Canaan is the best shooter (a career 36.8 percent three-point shooter), and shooting is an area of concern. So look for him to be on the court with Valentine.

Jerian Grant has the highest ceiling but would be better served (for now) logging heavy minutes for the D-League affiliate, the Windy City Bulls.

Shooting Guard

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Starter	Dwyane Wade
Primary Backup	Tony Snell
In the Mix	Paul Zipser

Dwyane Wade is the Bulls’ other major offseason acquisition. According to the Chicago Tribune's K.C. Johnson, it would have been a fantastic signing five years ago, but now it’s probably too little, too late. Even Wade agrees the Bulls aren’t contenders this year.

He has declined in his recent years, averaging 19.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.6 assists last season. But his DRE (an adjusted plus-minus which doesn’t factor in box-score numbers), calculated by Nylon Calculus’s Kevin Ferrigan, has Wade at minus-0.3, indicating Wade actually had a negative impact for the Miami Heat last year. Part of that is his defense has declined tremendously. And part of that is that his 51.7 true shooting percentage was a career low, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

Thus, Wade is the Bulls' new Pau Gasol: He’ll post hollow numbers that don’t do a lot to impact winning.

For now, Tony Snell will be next on the depth chart. He’s requited himself quite nicely this preseason after falling out of the rotation last year, averaging 2.17 points, 6.7 boards and 2.2 steals per 36 minutes so far, according to NBA.com. His defense has also been solid.

Snell won’t have a lot pushing him, though, the Bulls two rookies—Valentine and Paul Zipser—can both play the position and could upend him if he reverts to last year (and every other previous year’s) form.

Small Forward

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Starter	Jimmy Butler
Primary Backup	Doug McDermott
In the Mix	Denzel Valentine

The whole 2015-16 debate was whether it was Jimmy Butler’s or Derrick Rose’s team. So, when the Bulls dealt Rose to the Knicks, it was easy to assume the answer.

Then front office tandem, general manager Gar Forman and Vice President of Basketball Operations John Paxson, went out and signed Rondo and Wade, just because confusion is more fun than clarity.

But it might be helping where Butler needs the most help—in learning to lead. Friedell quotes Wade:

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I've come from a different place, a different culture, so things are done differently in different places. So I sat down and listened to guys and just talked and they tell me [about what happened last season]. But I think the biggest thing is some of the things they said I know it's not going to take place here. Not while I'm here. Not while Rondo's here and not while Jimmy's continuing to grow as a leader.

You talk about last year, but at the same time last year doesn't matter neither. We have a different core ... We have guys, obviously Rondo's won a championship, I've won a championship, we demand respect on the court, but we got a lot of young guys as well so they'll listen. It's not a veteran team where everyone's stuck in their ways. Right now in training camp we got 10 guys that's three years or less [of NBA experience] so they're all ears and that's a good thing for this team right now.

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When Butler rests (yes, it does happen), the primary backup should be Doug McDermott, who is a gifted scorer but a woeful defender. He’s known for his three-point shooting (42.5 percent from deep), and while it’s easy to compare him to fellow Creighton alumni, Kyle Korver, McBuckets has more ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. He was 112-of-208 (53.8 percent) last year within 10 feet, according to NBA.com.

Aside from McDermott, Valentine will get some playing time as a point forward, which could include minutes with McDermott at the 4. Snell could log time here too.

Power Forward

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Starter	Nikola Mirotic
Primary Backup	Taj Gibson
In the Mix	Bobby Portis

Fred Hoiberg has declared the starting power forward an “open competition” according to K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.

Last year, Nikola Mirotic won the starting job during camp but lost it early in the season to Taj Gibson. Both of them, as well as sophomore Bobby Portis, are in the mix. The three have started one game apiece in the preseason so far.

Ferrigan’s previously mentioned DRE is broken down by position, and here’s how each of the three fared when they were playing the 4:

• Mirotic, plus-1.8
• Gibson, 0.0
• Portis, minus-2.1

What's more: Gibson (plus-2.9) and Portis (plus-1.0) were both more effective at the 5. Mirotic (minus-1.5) was less impactful when he played the 3. This should make it easy to figure things out, particularly with the need of shooting in the starting five.

“Threekola” was 39.0 percent from deep last season.

Gibson will be the primary backup. With the overall lack of defense in the second unit, he’ll be crucial there. But with both he and Portis logging minutes at the 5, all three will be a regular part of the rotation. Expect McDermott to also fill in as a small-ball 4 at times.

Center

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Starter	Robin Lopez
Primary Backup	Cristiano Felicio
In the Mix	Bobby Portis, Taj Gibson

Robin Lopez was the biggest piece, literally and figuratively, of the Derrick Rose trade.

He’s a 7’0", 255-pound center who will give the Bulls a presence under the rim as a scrappy, solid rebounder. He doesn’t put up big numbers (just 10.3 points and 7.3 rebounds last season) but tends to have a positive impact on his teams.

Figuratively, he’ll also have the most impact. Although not an elite defender, he is solid and quick enough to defend the rim when someone slips past Mirotic or when needing to defend the high pick-and-roll.

But he’s not Joakim Noah. He has not been good in the preseason so far either. The Bulls’ defensive rating has been 109.8 with him on the court compared to 88.3 with Gibson.

If that trend continues, Gibson could end up seeing a lot of minutes at the 5, where he’s also just a better fit. That would give McDermott a chance to spend minutes at the 4, where he is more effective because Gibson’s defense would compensate for McDermott’s lack of it.

Cristiano Felicio is listed as the primary backup and is an unusually competent player for having such little experience. He doesn’t have noticeable holes in his game on either side of the court, and though he’s not a three-point shooter, he looks comfortable out to 15 feet. He sets solid screens, plays defense and has good feet and court awareness.

There is a lot to like about him, but he hasn’t gotten a lot of minutes outside of garbage time. Brian Sandalow of the Chicago Sun-Times reports Felicio will get a start this preseason and that should help.