NCAA Football Rankings 2016: Predicting the Top 25 After Week 6
Week 6 of the 2016 college football season lacked the pizzazz of some of its predecessors (including Week 5, which featured three Top 10 showdowns), at least on paper. But it didn’t lack drama or storylines, starting with Hurricane Matthew, which postponed (and possibly cancelled) LSU-Florida and turned games such as North Carolina State-Notre Dame and North Carolina-Virginia Tech into swampy, rain-soaked battles.
When the dust settled, one surprising SEC team continued its push up the national polls, the "Group of Five" saw its College Football Playoff hopes die and a pair of ACC teams saw their early momentum stalled by fellow league foes.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Due to Matthew’s postponement of the Georgia-South Carolina game until Sunday afternoon, the new Associated Press Top 25 won’t arrive until Monday morning. Here’s our best guess of what it will look like, with teams rising and falling.
| Rank | Team | Previous | Record | Week 6 Result |
| 1. | Alabama | 1 | 6-0 | Won 49-30 vs. Arkansas |
| 2. | Ohio State | 2 | 5-0 | Won 38-17 vs. Indiana |
| 3. | Clemson | 3 | 6-0 | Won 56-10 vs. Boston College |
| 4. | Michigan | 4 | 6-0 | Won 78-0 vs. Rutgers |
| 5. | Washington | 5 | 6-0 | Won 70-21 vs. Oregon |
| 6. | Texas A&M | 8 | 6-0 | Won 45-38 (2OT) vs. Tennessee |
| 7. | Louisville | 7 | 4-1 | Off |
| 8. | Wisconsin | 11 | 4-1 | Off |
| 9. | Nebraska | 12 | 5-0 | Off |
| 10. | Baylor | 13 | 5-0 | Off |
| 11. | Tennessee | 9 | 5-1 | Lost 45-38 (2OT) vs. Texas A&M |
| 12. | Houston | 6 | 5-1 | Lost 46-40 vs. Navy |
| 13. | Ole Miss | 14 | 3-2 | Off |
| 14. | Florida | 16 | 4-1 | Game vs. LSU postponed |
| 15. | Boise State | 19 | 5-0 | Won 49-21 vs. New Mexico |
| 16. | Florida State | 23 | 4-2 | Won 20-19 vs. Miami |
| 17. | Miami | 10 | 4-1 | Lost 20-19 vs. Florida State |
| 18. | Oklahoma | 20 | 3-2 | Won 45-40 vs. Texas |
| 19. | Virginia Tech | 25 | 4-1 | Won 34-3 vs. North Carolina |
| 20. | West Virginia | 22 | 4-0 | Off |
| 21. | Stanford | 15 | 3-2 | Lost 42-16 vs. Washington State |
| 22. | Arkansas | 16 | 4-2 | Lost 49-30 vs. Alabama |
| 23. | North Carolina | 17 | 4-2 | Lost 34-3 vs. Virginia Tech |
| 24. | Utah | 24 | 5-1 | Won 36-23 vs. Arizona |
| 25. | Western Michigan | NR | 6-0 | Won 45-30 vs. Northern Illinois |
Moving Up
Texas A&M
Remember when Kevin Sumlin was on the hot seat? It was only August, but it feels far longer ago. Following Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel’s departure, Sumlin was just 16-10 and 7-9 in SEC play, and he wasn’t justifying his $5 million annual salary.
That’s changed in a big way over the first half of this season. Following Saturday’s 45-38 double-overtime win over No. 9 Tennessee, A&M is 6-0 with a bye week before an Oct. 22 showdown with No. 1 Alabama. The Aggies forced seven Tennessee turnovers
Meanwhile, graduate-transfer quarterback Trevor Knight continues to provide capable offensive leadership. Knight threw for 215 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 110 yards and three touchdowns (including a 62-yard scoring run). Tailback Trayveon Williams rushed for 215 yards and a touchdown, overcoming a key goal-line fumble at the end of a would-be long scoring run that led to a touchback and gave Tennessee late life.
Despite blowing a late two-touchdown lead, A&M kept its poise and won the game on Knight's one-yard sneak in double overtime and Armani Watts’ interception of Joshua Dobbs on the ensuing possession.
With fellow Texas team Houston falling, the Aggies should be close to the Top Five on Monday morning. Suddenly, Sumlin’s seat looks cool, a welcome development for A&M fans.
Virginia Tech
When Virginia Tech hired Justin Fuente, it was hailed as a smart move for a program that had grown a bit stale in the final years of Frank Beamer’s long, successful tenure. Fuente brought his fast-paced offense from Memphis and installed handpicked recruit Jerod Evans as the starting quarterback. A mistake-filled 45-24 loss to Tennessee suggested a return to glory wasn’t imminent, but we found out otherwise Saturday at North Carolina.
In a soggy Kenan Stadium pounded by rain bands from Hurricane Matthew, the No. 25 Hokies looked like the class of the ACC Coastal Division in a 34-3 rout of No. 17 North Carolina. Evans was not great (7-of-17 passing for 75 yards and a touchdown), but Bud Foster’s defense was gritty and nasty.
The Hokies forced four UNC turnovers and outgained the high-octane Tar Heels 264-131. As usual, the ACC Coastal is wide open, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tech in Orlando at the ACC title game. The learning curve is a lot shorter than we thought.
Florida State
For 30-plus minutes Saturday night, it appeared as though the unthinkable would happen. Was Florida State headed out of the Top 25? The Seminoles began 2016 with hopes of making the College Football Playoff, but a blowout loss to Louisville and a last-second North Carolina field goal dashed those dreams.
Trailing No. 10 Miami 13-3 at the half, the No. 23 Seminoles needed a rally just to stay ranked, much less chase any hopes of an ACC title. Thanks to freshman quarterback Deondre Francois and do-it-all tailback Dalvin Cook, they got it. Francois threw two second-half scores (one a 59-yarder to Cook) and the Seminoles hung on for a 20-19 win, blocking a potential game-tying extra point with 1:38 to play.
Jimbo Fisher’s team might not be a national title contender this fall, but the Seminoles have the satisfaction of seven consecutive wins over Miami in their back pocket, and that’s meaningful in its own way.
Western Michigan
If you’re a Western Michigan fan, don’t get too attached to P.J. Fleck. He might not be long for the MAC. Fleck and the Broncos are one of the best stories of the college football season. Fleck has done an excellent job turning around Western Michigan’s program, and that should be rewarded with a bigger job elsewhere.
Following Saturday’s 45-30 win over former MAC kingpin Northern Illinois (which is now 1-5), the Broncos are 6-0 and the clear class of the league with wins over Big Ten foes Illinois and Northwestern. At this rate, they might want to start thinking about the Group of Five’s New Year’s Six bid, but breaking into the Top 25 will be a nice prize for now.
Moving Down
Houston
If you were in Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday, chances are you heard a loud popping sound around 7 p.m. local time. Don’t be alarmed; that was the bubble that is the Group of Five’s College Football Playoff hopes bursting.
No. 6 Houston had a legit shot at making the playoff after beginning the season with a rousing win over then-No. 5 Oklahoma. A schedule that includes a Nov. 17 date with Louisville made those hopes realistic, too. But Tom Herman’s team had to run the table to have any shot at a berth. Navy’s 46-40 win over the Cougars ended that chance.
Senior quarterback Greg Ward Jr. threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions and added 94 yards and a rushing touchdown, but the Cougars couldn’t stop Navy’s triple-option attack. Navy rushed for 306 yards as a team, led by quarterback Will Worth and his 115 yards and a touchdown on 32 carries.
Houston outgained Navy 484-382 but committed three turnovers and sealed its fate with a high snap out of its own end zone for a safety with 5:39 remaining. This was a humbling blow for Herman and the Cougars. In one afternoon, their playoff hopes were vanquished, their bid for another New Year’s Six bowl took a big hit and they lost control of their American Athletic Conference fate. As ESPN.com's Heather Dinich explained, the loss could have a wide-ranging effect on the playoff picture.
Navy, which scored its first win over a Top 10 team since 1984, now must lose twice for Houston to have any hope of winning the AAC West. Ouch.
Tennessee
Tennessee is a second-half team. Anyone who suggests otherwise just isn’t paying attention. The Volunteers erased a 10-point halftime deficit against Appalachian State in their opener before rallying for a 20-13 overtime win. They spotted Virginia Tech a 14-point lead and then rolled to a 45-24 victory. Against Florida, the Vols built themselves an early 21-0 hole and rallied for a 38-28 win. Against Georgia, they came back from a 17-0 second-quarter hole and connected on a final-play Hail Mary touchdown pass for a stunning victory.
So when No. 8 Texas A&M bolted to a 21-7 second-quarter lead over the No. 9 Vols Saturday, it was no big deal. Been there, done that, right? When the Aggies grabbed a 35-21 lead on Trevor Knight’s 62-yard touchdown run with 3:21 remaining, it was finally time to bury Butch Jones’ crew. If you thought that, well...the Vols feel sorry for you.
A quick-strike 65-yard touchdown drive brought UT back within a touchdown with 2:07 to go, but when Aggies tailback Trayveon Williams broke free toward the end zone on the ensuing drive, with only grass in front of him, it was over, right? Nope. A defender popped the ball free at the 1-yard line, turning a likely 72-yard touchdown into a touchback and Tennessee ball with 1:49 left.
And of course, Tennessee turned that into a quick 80-yard touchdown drive, capped by Joshua Dobbs’ 18-yard touchdown pass to Alvin Kamara. The Vols then survived A&M missing a potential game-winning 38-yard field goal with eight seconds left.
Although the Aggies eventually pulled out a 45-38 double-overtime victory, intercepting Dobbs to seal the win, it was a reminder to the rest of Tennessee’s schedule (including Alabama next week) that the Vols won’t roll over for anyone.
Stanford
Entering 2016, Stanford was the clear class of the Pac-12. The Cardinal had won three Pac-12 titles in the last four years, and with Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey returning, big things were expected again. But just short of the season’s halfway mark, Stanford and David Shaw look positively ordinary.
A 44-6 loss to a good Washington team is one thing. Getting blown out 42-16 at home to a 2-2 Washington State team is another. Stanford couldn’t stop the Cougars’ Air Raid passing attack and couldn’t move the ball offensively. McCaffrey was limited with an apparent hip injury, gaining 35 rushing yards on eight carries. His string of 19 consecutive games with at least 100 all-purpose yards was snapped, too.
Stanford’s offensive line struggled to keep the offense moving, a bad sign for a unit defined by its strong trench work. The Cardinal don't appear to be Pac-12 contenders, and this might not be the end of the struggles. They might not be long for the Top 25.
North Carolina
The ACC Coastal is notoriously tough to predict, and the last eight days of North Carolina’s season are a microcosm of that uncertainty. Last week, the Tar Heels marched into Tallahassee and took a stunning 37-35 win over Florida State, capped by a 54-yard game-winning field goal on the game’s final play. The No. 17 Heels took plenty of momentum into Saturday’s showdown with No. 25 Virginia Tech but showed none of it in an ugly 34-3 defeat.
Quarterback Mitch Trubisky completed only 13 of 33 passes for 58 yards with two interceptions, and UNC’s offense missed star tailback Elijah Hood, who sat out with an injury. Tech outgained the Heels 264-131, the lowest yardage total in Larry Fedora’s Tar Heel tenure. The Heels aren’t out of the Coastal Division race, but this was a major setback on an ugly, wet day in Chapel Hill.
Miami
Florida State-Miami games have a long, storied history of coming down to missed kicks at the end. So in some ways, No. 10 Miami’s 20-19 loss to No. 23 Florida State was nothing new. But the twist was unique. With 1:38 left, Brad Kaaya threw a perfect fourth-down pass to Stacy Coley for an 11-yard touchdown, with Miami needing only an extra point to tie the game at 20. But normally reliable Michael Badgley’s extra point was blocked, sealing the Seminoles’ win.
It was a frustrating way for Miami to lose its seventh consecutive game to its in-state rival. The Hurricanes couldn’t hold a 13-3 halftime lead and showed that Mark Richt’s reclamation project is still a little way away from reaching the top of the ACC. Miami can still challenge for an ACC Coastal title, but this one will sting.
Colorado
This week, Colorado and head coach Mike MacIntyre achieved a significant milestone in the program’s rebuilding process. The Buffaloes cracked the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time in 11 seasons following a 4-1 start. Well, we hope the Buffs soaked up the adulation because their stay is likely going to be brief.
A 21-17 loss at USC will likely end Colorado's Top 25 run after only one week. An offense that entered the game averaging 43.2 points per contest never got on track. Colorado erased an early 14-0 deficit, but Sam Darnold’s seven-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Petite with 8:26 left gave the struggling Trojans the lead for good.
Colorado can still make a bowl game, but the Buffs will slide below the national radar again this week.
Arkansas
There was reason for No. 1 Alabama to be wary of No. 16 Arkansas entering Saturday night’s visit to Fayetteville. Under Bret Bielema, Arkansas has been a pest for the Crimson Tide. Two years ago, Alabama survived a 14-13 nail-biter in the Ozarks, and last fall, the Tide trailed 7-3 at the half and led only 10-7 after three quarters before pulling away for a 27-14 win.
Saturday, the 4-1 Razorbacks felt good about their chances of making noise in the SEC West race. Instead, Alabama ran all over them en route to a 49-30 victory. Arkansas quarterback Austin Allen threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns but also had three interceptions. Alabama QB Jalen Hurts was much more efficient, completing 13 of 17 passes for 253 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.
Arkansas is improved under Bielema but isn't one of the West's elite teams just yet.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
