College Football Week 5 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Every Top 25 team is in action during Week 5 of the 2016 college football season, and three matchups between programs ranked among the top 10 highlight the busy state.
As always, Bleacher Report is providing game picks against the spread. This season, the ATS record stands at 34-31.
The list is organized into two sections—featured games and the remainder of the week's slate—and by kickoff time. Please remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Note: Top 25 rankings reflect the Associated Press poll. All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com.
No. 7 Stanford vs. No. 10 Washington
1 of 10
When: Friday, Sept. 30, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Washington (-2.5)
Washington's nonconference slate hardly could've been easier, and the upstart team needed overtime to beat Arizona on the road. Stanford, meanwhile, has encountered one of the toughest schedules in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Those are two wildly different paths, but both lead to Seattle for a Friday night showdown between top-10 clubs.
Whichever offense controls the ground will earn the upper hand. Stanford limited USC and UCLA to a combined 3.3 yards per carry, and Arizona exposed a weakness in the Huskies' run defense.
There's no player better equipped to attack it than Christian McCaffrey. His ability to break sizable runs outside the tackles will provide the difference in a tight finish.
The Pick: Stanford (+2.5)
No. 14 Miami vs. Georgia Tech
2 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET (ESPN2)
The Line: Miami (-7)
Similar to Washington, Miami really hasn't been tested. Partially, that's a credit to Mark Richt's team traveling to Appalachian State and dominating right from the opening kickoff.
The 'Canes open conference play at Georgia Tech, which has struggled against both Miami and Richt in recent seasons. During the last four seasons, the Yellow Jackets are 2-6 ATS combined, per Odds Shark. Additionally, Richt has never lost to Georgia Tech in Atlanta.
Both trends will continue Saturday afternoon, and the Hurricanes provide Richt with a double-digit victory in his ACC debut.
The Pick: Miami (-7)
No. 22 Texas vs. Oklahoma State
3 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET (ABC)
The Line: Oklahoma State (-2.5)
Defense will be optional in this Big 12 tilt on Saturday. The question is which team can best out-offense the other.
Cowboys quarterback Mason Rudolph has impressive numbers, but consistency and accuracy—as well as consistent accuracy—are real problems for him in 2016. Plus, Oklahoma State's pass defense is dreadful.
Quarterback Shane Buechele missed a portion of Texas' game against Cal, but Jeff Howe of 247Sports notes the freshman said he's ready for the Pokes. He'll combine with Tyrone Swoopes to give the Longhorns their ninth straight win in Stillwater.
The Pick: Texas (+2.5)
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No. 8 Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Michigan
4 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Michigan (-10.5)
Wisconsin earned impressive victories over LSU and Michigan State. The Badgers also needed a game-winning drive—at home—to defeat Georgia State. Which team shows up in Ann Arbor?
Save for one quarter against Colorado, Michigan has been dominant in 2016. Opponents have struggled to run the ball between the tackles, so that's not a promising sign for Wisconsin. But the Wolverines pass rush and secondary are among the best in the nation.
Badgers freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook needs to put together a perfect game. Put simply, the odds aren't great that happens.
Wisconsin is excellent at avoiding blowouts not in its favor, but Michigan will record a hard-fought two-touchdown win.
The Pick: Michigan (-10.5)
No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 25 Georgia
5 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Tennessee (-3.5)
Tennessee has overcome a pair of painfully slow starts to win by double digits. Georgia has trudged through a few painful games. The Vols' resilience will again be on display this weekend.
Plus, since the beginning of the 2015 season, Butch Jones and Co. are 6-3 against the spread in conference action. Under Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS overall—and not a great team in 2016.
Georgia will be motivated to forget an embarrassing 45-14 loss to Ole Miss, but Tennessee will extend its winning streak to 11.
The Pick: Tennessee (-3.5)
North Carolina vs. No. 12 Florida State
6 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Florida State (-11)
After the Seminoles' Dalvin Cook ran for a career-high 267 yards in Week 4, South Florida's run defense plummeted down the rankings and into a tie at 10th-worst nationally. The other team? Yeah, North Carolina.
The Tar Heels have allowed a 100-yard rusher to each opponent this season. However, they're 3-1 because of a dynamic offense. Especially since safety Derwin James' knee injury, the 'Noles have struggled mightily on that side of the ball.
Florida State's offensive firepower will overwhelm UNC, but the Tar Heels will stay within 10 points as long as they keep running backs Elijah Hood and T.J. Logan involved. Otherwise, FSU may start running away.
The Pick: North Carolina (+11)
Oklahoma vs. No. 21 TCU
7 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 5 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Line: Oklahoma (-3.5)
In recent seasons, Oklahoma has struggled with hype. When expectations were low, the Sooners excelled. So, it would make perfect sense for Bob Stoops to render trends useless.
But Oklahoma is a disappointing team in 2016. The defense was supposed to provide a winning boost in an offense-dominated Big 12, but Oklahoma enters the game 1-2 overall and 0-3 against the spread.
Now, the Horned Frogs haven't demanded tons of positive attention. However, their defensive unit is steadily improving. A field goal will provide the difference in the outcome.
The Pick: TCU (+3.5)
Memphis vs. No. 16 Ole Miss
8 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 7 p.m. ET
The Line: Ole Miss (-14.5)
Memphis was the surprise team of 2015, riding eventual first-round draft pick Paxton Lynch to an upset over Ole Miss. History has a way of repeating itself, but that's not happening again.
Now, the Rebels know better than to overlook the Tigers. "We're certainly going to look at the past and say they were a good team and they beat us fair and square, but we're hoping to take care of business this year as we need to," defensive end John Youngblood said, per Antonio Morales of the Clarion-Ledger.
Lynch's successor, Riley Ferguson, accounted for seven touchdowns during a 77-3 thrashing of Bowling Green last week. That firepower won't allow for a complete blowout, but QB Chad Kelly and the Rebels will build an early lead and slowly pull away.
The Pick: Ole Miss (-14.5)
No. 3 Louisville vs. No. 5 Clemson
9 of 10
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Louisville (-2)
Most eyes will be fixed on the prime-time battle between Louisville and Clemson. The two other contests with ranked teams in that time slot include Michigan State and San Diego State.
Before the season, the Tigers figured to present the better quarterback and more explosive offense in this important ACC game. Louisville had an underrated unit, but matching Deshaun Watson and Clemson seemed like wishful thinking. Not anymore.
Dabo Swinney's Tigers certainly realize this is a must-win game since the Cardinals defeated Atlantic Division for Florida State. Additionally, Clemson is at home, where the program has 18 straight victories.
Projecting a Tigers win is perfectly reasonable. After all, Saturday's clash is practically a toss-up in the betting world. But picking Clemson is based on potential. Going with Louisville is trusting what we've seen.
The Pick: Louisville (-2)
Other Top 25 Games
10 of 10
Connecticut vs. No. 6 Houston (-28)
When: Thursday, Sept. 29, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Last season, UConn pulled a surprising upset on Houston, which used its backup quarterback for most of the contest. But in 2016, Greg Ward Jr. is healthy. With the dual-threat QB behind center, the Cougars will secure a comfortable victory. However, UConn—which has played four one-possession games this year—will stay within four touchdowns.
The Pick: Connecticut (+28)
Rutgers vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-38.5)
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET (Big Ten Network)
Pupil will meet teacher Saturday afternoon at The Shoe. Former Ohio State defensive coordinator Chris Ash accepted the head-coaching position at Rutgers this offseason. But this one could get ugly. Former Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano replaced Ash and leads a Buckeyes defense that limited Oklahoma's offense to 17 points. Ohio State will register its third 40-plus-point victory of the year.
The Pick: Ohio State (-38.5)
No. 13 Baylor (-16.5) vs. Iowa State
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET (ABC)
The first quarter hasn't been kind to Baylor. In three games against FBS opponents, the Bears have mustered a single touchdown. Fortunately for quarterback Seth Russell and Co., Iowa State allowed a total of 24 points to Iowa and TCU in the opening frame. Baylor will start quickly and piece together a blowout in Ames.
The Pick: Baylor (-16.5)
No. 23 Florida (-10) vs. Vanderbilt
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, noon ET (SEC Network)
Defense will rule what should be a low-scoring SEC clash. Vanderbilt struggles to throw the ball, though, and Florida's secondary is far more talented than the Vandy receiving unit. Yes, the Commodores try to rely on Ralph Webb and the ground attack anyway, but the Gators are stout up front. While it won't be a glamorous performance, Florida will sneak out a two-touchdown triumph.
The Pick: Florida (-10)
Illinois vs. No. 15 Nebraska (-21)
When: Saturday, Oct, 1, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Lovie Smith's rebuilding project is not going well. Illinois lost to North Carolina 48-23 and Western Michigan 34-10. Meanwhile, Nebraska edged Oregon and survived two goal-line fumbles on the road to beat Northwestern by 11 points. The Cornhuskers—who are 3-0-1 against the spread this season—won't make the same costly mistakes and will assemble a dominant win on Saturday.
The Pick: Nebraska (-21)
No. 9 Texas A&M (-17.5) vs. South Carolina
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
South Carolina has surrendered just 17.3 points per game, so it's tempting to pick the Gamecocks against the spread. However, the offense is a complete disaster. South Carolina is one of five teams in the country with an average below 300 yards. The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in 2016, and the unblemished mark will continue.
The Pick: Texas A&M (-17.5)
No. 18 Utah vs. Cal (-2)
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 6 p.m. ET (ABC)
Although Cal isn't a contender in the Pac-12, Sonny Dykes' team sure can score. Utah deserves its current ranking, but the defense could be without all-conference D-tackle Lowell Lotulelei, as Kyle Goon of the Salt Lake Tribune reports. If Lotulelei is out, the Utes will struggle to stop the Golden Bears on the ground—and that's the offense's complement. Doubting Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is dangerous, but quarterback Davis Webb may be too much for Utah to handle.
The Pick: Cal (-2)
Kentucky vs. No. 1 Alabama (-35)
When: Saturday, Oct. 1, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Mark Stoops' tenure at Kentucky may be coming to close, and Alabama will only add to the frustration. The Crimson Tide will shut down an offense that managed just 17 points against South Carolina and keep shredding a defense that has allowed 40 points three times in four games. The Wildcats will fall to 1-4 ATS in 2016.
The Pick: Alabama (-35)
No. 19 San Diego State (-19) vs. South Alabama
When: Saturday, Oct, 1, 8 p.m. ET (ESPNEWS)
If you're not familiar with San Diego State, now is a good time to learn. Running back Donnel Pumphrey leads the country with 599 yards—despite the next 13 highest rushers playing one more game. South Alabama pulled a shocker at Mississippi State, but the defense is ranked 117th against the run. The Aztecs will win big.
The Pick: San Diego State (-19)
No. 17 Michigan State (-7) vs. Indiana
When: Saturday, Oct, 1, 8 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Michigan State raced to a 36-7 lead on the road at Notre Dame before its secondary allowed the Irish to fight back within eight points. There's no doubt Indiana should—and most likely will—attack the Spartans through the air right away. The Hoosiers passing offense is 13th-best nationally. Michigan State will hold on for a victory because of Indiana's suspect defense, but it'll take a late touchdown to beat the spread.
The Pick: Michigan State (-7)
Utah State vs. No. 24 Boise State (-20)
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Boise State has defeated a pair of Pac-12 opponents and crept in the Top 25. While another late kickoff won't bring national attention, the Broncos will continue winning. However, Boise State is 2-5 against the spread at home since the beginning of Bryan Harsin's tenure. Last season, Utah State forced eight turnovers against the Broncos. That's not happening, but two takeaways will keep the Aggies within 20.
The Pick: Utah State (+20)
Note: No spread listed for No. 21 Arkansas (Alcorn State).
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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