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Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 20, 2016

Denver Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian hands off to C.J. Anderson (22)  against the Indianapolis Colts during the first half in a NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2016, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

The Denver Broncos will put their seven-game straight-up win streak on the line Sunday when they battle the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.

The Broncos have held opponents to 20 or fewer points per game during their streak and are the away team for the first time since a 34-27 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 15 of last season. The Bengals are coming off a 24-16 loss to the Steelers as three-point road underdogs and will be aiming to reverse their 1-5 SU record in recent clashes with Denver.

Point spread: The Bengals opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.4-20.4 Bengals (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

After topping Cam Newton and Andrew Luck in his first two career starts, Trevor Siemian looks to be settling in as the Broncos' starting pivot. After leading the Broncos to a 21-20 win over Carolina, Siemian surpassed Luck in passing yards by a 266-197 margin in last week's 34-20 victory over Indianapolis.

The ground game and defense have also done their part, with C.J. Anderson leading an attack that has averaged 141 rushing yards per game through Week 2, while the defense turned a pair of turnovers into 15 fourth-quarter points against the Colts.

Denver went 6-2 SU on the road last season but has covered just once in its past five road contests.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

Cincinnati prepares for its home opener after falling flat in Pittsburgh. The Bengals were stopped by the Steelers offense inside the red zone three times, settling for field goals on each occasion.

The Bengals failed to cover as three-point road underdogs, extending their winless streak against the spread to four games. However, Cincinnati has responded well after recent losses, going 4-0 SU in its past four games immediately following a loss.

This team has been near unbeatable in early-season home contests, going 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in its past nine September home dates.

Smart pick

Siemian looks increasingly comfortable running the Broncos' multifaceted attack, which cracked 400 total yards for just the second time in their past eight games last week against Indy. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their past four overall but just 4-3-2 ATS in their past nine road contests.

The Bengals' lack of finish in Pittsburgh raises concerns, and Cincinnati is a dismal 3-6 SU, 6-3 ATS, in its past nine against the Broncos. However, each of those SU wins came at home, where they have surrendered 10 or fewer points in three of their past six outings. Look for the Bengals to win but fail to cover in a low-scoring contest.

Betting trends

The Broncos are 5-1 SU in their last six games against the Bengals.

The Broncos are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Bengals.

The Bengals are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 3.

All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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