College Football Week 4 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
For the second straight Saturday, four college football games include a pair of ranked teams. Several others kick off conference action during Week 4 of the 2016 season.
Bleacher Report is submitting picks against the spread for every contest that involves a Top 25 program. While the list separates featured games and organizes them by kickoff time, the remainder of the slate appears on the final page.
Through three weeks of play, the overall record sits at 26-24. Bleacher Report will track and share results all season long. Please remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Note: Top 25 rankings reflect the Associated Press poll. All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com.
No. 5 Clemson vs. Georgia Tech
1 of 9
When: Thursday, Sept. 22, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Clemson (-9.5)
Clemson's offense struggled against Troy and Auburn, but South Carolina State offered the perfect chance for Deshaun Watson and Co. to find a rhythm. Long story short, it happened: Clemson 59, South Carolina State 0.
The defending ACC champions now open conference play on the road against Georgia Tech, which unexpectedly trounced Vanderbilt 38-7 last week.
However, Paul Johnson's Yellow Jackets were 1-7 against the spread versus ACC opponents last season. They'll start strong but fade down the finish because of Clemson's rested offense. Watson threw three touchdown passes before exiting the blowout of SCSU in the second quarter.
As long as the Tigers aren't caught looking ahead to Louisville, they'll post a double-digit victory in Atlanta.
The Pick: Clemson (-9.5)
USC vs. No. 24 Utah
2 of 9
When: Friday, Sept. 23, 9 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
The Line: Utah (-3)
After a couple of poor performances against ranked teams, USC head coach Clay Helton has decided to make a change. He's going with Sam Darnold over Max Browne at quarterback, according to Zach Helfand of the Los Angeles Times.
The switch will pay off Friday night. Utah is 2-7 against the spread at home since the beginning of the 2015 season.
Although Darnold may receive the most credit, USC's running game and defense will be what actually provides the difference. A late turnover will doom the Utes in their Pac-12 opener.
The Pick: USC (+3)
No. 11 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Michigan State
3 of 9
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, noon ET (Big Ten Network)
The Line: Michigan State (-5.5)
Previous seasons taught the college football world to never doubt Mark Dantonio. Sure enough, despite losing several longtime starters, Michigan State looks like a contender.
And Wisconsin is basically the same as always, too. While the program should approach 10 wins, it won't always be pretty—the near-flop to Georgia State provided all the evidence necessary.
The Badgers rarely attack down the field through the air, which is Michigan State's lone defensive weakness. Saturday's clash won't be a blowout, but the Spartans will retain a touchdown advantage over Wisconsin in the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Michigan State (-5.5)
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No. 12 Georgia vs. No. 23 Ole Miss
4 of 9
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, noon ET (ESPN)
The Line: Ole Miss (-7)
Hugh Freeze's team is two-thirds of the way to the worst-case scenario. Georgia doesn't look as daunting as expected, though.
With Chad Kelly at quarterback Ole Miss is 6-3 against the spread at home. Despite the 39-point swing last week against Alabama, the Rebels still crawled back within four.
Ole Miss will take advantage of a shaky Georgia offensive line. The Bulldogs—who are 0-2 ATS following a win this year—mustered just 2.7 yards per carry at Missouri and allowed four sacks.
The Pick: Ole Miss (-7)
Penn State vs. No. 4 Michigan
5 of 9
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Michigan (-19)
Colorado managed passing plays of 50 and 70 yards during the Spartans' 45-28 win last week, but Michigan's defense continued to hold up without All-American cornerback Jourdan Lewis, as well as end Taco Charlton and tackle Bryan Mone. Finally, there's good news.
According to Nick Baumgardner of MLive, head coach Jim Harbaugh is "very hopeful" all three of them will return to the field.
That's a problem for Penn State, which needs an offensive explosion to derail the Wolverines because of a suspect defense. Plus, since James Franklin took over in 2014, the Nittany Lions are 2-7 against the spread on the road and 0-4 ATS as an away underdog.
The Pick: Michigan (-19)
No. 19 Florida vs. No. 14 Tennessee
6 of 9
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Tennessee (-6.5)
Consistency is a major problem for both Tennessee and Florida. Winning this rivalry game is an even bigger issue for the Vols, who have dropped 11 straight outings to their SEC East foe.
Plus, under Jim McElwain, the Gators are 8-2 against the spread in conference games. Meanwhile, Tennessee is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of the 2015 season.
Perhaps the Vols end the streak, but Florida will at least keep the final score close. Until Butch Jones proves he can avoid a late-game collapse, though, Tennessee won't get the benefit of the doubt.
The Pick: Florida (+6.5)
Oklahoma State vs. No. 16 Baylor
7 of 9
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Line: Baylor (-9.5)
Baylor is probably the most uninspiring 3-0 team in the nation. After taking on Northwestern State, SMU and Rice, the Bears must be ready for the level of competition to soar.
Oklahoma State has a problem, too: defense. Pitt isn't exactly an offensive juggernaut yet racked up 527 total yards and 31 points. (The Panthers also returned a fumble return for a touchdown.)
Points will not be at a premium Saturday night, but Baylor is 0-3 against the spread this season. That trend will continue.
The Pick: Oklahoma State (+9.5)
No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 10 Texas A&M
8 of 9
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Texas A&M (-6)
Texas A&M has recorded a pair of quality victories (UCLA and Auburn), but you don't need to be sold on the Aggies yet. The result against Arkansas will offer a valuable clue.
However, Razorbacks coach Bret Bielema is a master at keeping away games close. Since 2014, Arkansas is 6-1 against the spread and 4-3 straight up as an underdog on the road.
Although the A&M offense ranks No. 14 nationally, it is tied for eighth with SMU in percentage of red-zone drives that end in field goals. Even without a win, the Razorbacks stay within six points because of timely defense, forcing three points instead of seven.
The Pick: Arkansas (+6)
Other Top 25 Games
9 of 9
Kent State vs. No. 1 Alabama (-43.5)
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, noon ET (SEC Network)
Let's start here: Alabama is absolutely, positively, unequivocally not losing to Kent State, a program that fell to North Carolina A&T. However—oddly enough—since 2012, the Crimson Tide are 1-8 against the spread when playing non-power-conference opponents from the Football Bowl Subdivision.
The Pick: Kent State (+43.5)
No. 13 Florida State (-6) vs. South Florida
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, noon ET (ABC)
Even before Louisville thrashed Florida State, a six-point spread wouldn't have been a surprise. South Florida is a well-rounded club with a dynamic quarterback in Quinton Flowers. But this is going to be an angry Seminoles team. Last year, Florida State was 2-0 against the spread after a loss, and this roster is even better. USF won't get trounced, but the 'Noles win comfortably.
The Pick: Florida State (-6)
No. 18 LSU (-3.5) vs. Auburn
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
It's the battle of the Tigers. The clash of hot-seat coaches. The showdown between spread-haters. LSU is 0-3 ATS in 2016 and 6-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2015 season. Auburn is 6-10 ATS during the same period, but Gus Malzahn's team will spring the upset because former LSU defensive coordinator Kevin Steele knows exactly what to expect from Les Miles' never-evolving offense.
The Pick: Auburn (+3.5)
Texas State vs. No. 6 Houston (-34.5)
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
According to Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle, head coach Tom Herman said Greg Ward Jr. will play. In Ward's 15 career starts, the Cougars are 11-4 against the spread. Texas State has a formidable offense, but Ward will build a sizable lead before Kyle Postma takes over and secures a five-touchdown win.
The Pick: Houston (-34.5)
No. 20 Nebraska (-7) vs. Northwestern
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 7:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Unsurprisingly, Northwestern tends to play tighter games at home. That's both a blessing and a curse, considering the Wildcats are 4-2 against the spread as the underdog but 3-8 ATS as the favorite since 2014. They fit the former category when Nebraska—which is 1-2 ATS when favored on the road under Mike Riley—travels to Evanston.
The Pick: Northwestern (+7)
No. 3 Louisville (-25.5) vs. Marshall
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 8 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
It appears Lamar Jackson cannot be stopped. Marshall just allowed 65 points and 524 yards to Akron. Akron! Unlike Charlotte, though, the Thundering Herd can actually challenge the Louisville defense. By that, we mean it won't be a shutout. Jackson and the Cardinals will completely run away with this victory.
The Pick: Louisville (-25.5)
No. 7 Stanford (-3) vs. UCLA
When: Saturday, Sept. 24, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
Stanford might have the worst September schedule in the nation. After defeating USC, the Cardinal now head to UCLA before traveling to Washington. However, Christian McCaffrey will propel Stanford past the Bruins, who are 0-3 against the spread this season and 6-10 since 2015. Stanford is 2-0 and 12-4 ATS, respectively.
The Pick: Stanford (-3)
Note: No spread listed for No. 9 Washington (Arizona), while Nos. 2 Ohio State, 15 Miami, 21 Texas, 22 San Diego State and 25 Oklahoma are idle.
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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