College Football Week 3 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Four matchups between ranked teams highlight the Week 3 slate of the 2016 college football season, and several Top 25 programs face tough road opponents or begin conference play.
Bleacher Report is once again picking every game involving a ranked squad against the spread.
After a strong opening to the season, Week 2 included a handful of close losses to take our overall record to 18-15. The results will be tracked and shared throughout the year.
Please remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Note: Top 25 rankings reflect the Associated Press poll. All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com.
No. 6 Houston vs. Cincinnati
1 of 10
When: Thursday, Sept. 15, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Houston (-8)
Fresh off a five-interception performance at Purdue—including three by safety Mike Tyson—Cincinnati is thinking upset.
But Houston returns its weapons in the backfield. Per Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle, head coach Tom Herman said both Greg Ward Jr. and Duke Catalon will play after sitting out against Lamar.
Since Herman took over, the Cougars are 4-1 against the spread as the visiting team. The trend continues Thursday night.
The Pick: Houston (-8)
No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 10 Louisville
2 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, noon ET (ABC)
The Line: Florida State (-2.5)
No player in the country has compiled a hotter start to the 2016 campaign than Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson. In Week 3, he faces ACC divisional foe Florida State.
The Seminoles will be without starting safety Derwin James for the contest, and that's no small void. However, FSU has outstanding depth in the secondary, a terrific defensive line and a week to prepare for Jackson's dazzling talent.
Although the matchup should be a high-scoring affair, head coach Jimbo Fisher guides the 'Noles to a small victory. Only this time, unlike Ole Miss, a 22-point comeback isn't needed.
The Pick: Florida State (-2.5)
No. 25 Miami vs. Appalachian State
3 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, noon ET (ESPN)
The Line: Miami (-3.5)
Appalachian State isn't a deceptive opponent. The Mountaineers—the Sun Belt Conference favorites heading into the season—are simply good. A near-win at Tennessee proved they should be taken seriously on a national level.
Now, they're gearing up for the biggest home game in school history, welcoming quarterback Brad Kaaya and Miami to the mountains.
It's possible—perhaps even likely—the Hurricanes start slowly because of the environment. However, Kaaya presents a much larger downfield passing threat than Joshua Dobbs, who rarely tested a formidable yet susceptible secondary.
Miami does't make that mistake and wins by a touchdown or more.
The Pick: Miami (-3.5)
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No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 19 Ole Miss
4 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Alabama (-10)
For two straight seasons, Ole Miss has knocked off head coach Nick Saban and Alabama. Fortuitous bounces or not, that's an impressive feat.
Last year, however, quarterback Chad Kelly played a mistake-free game, while the Crimson Tide committed five turnovers. The Rebels still only managed a six-point victory.
Alabama bounces back in a major way in 2016. Quarterback Jalen Hurts leads Saban's squad to an early lead, and the defense pounces on Kelly like Florida State did during the second half to earn a comfortable win.
The Pick: Alabama (-10)
No. 22 Oregon vs. Nebraska
5 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Nebraska (-3)
If you like points, be sure to watch Oregon's trip to Nebraska. Two explosive offenses should shred lackluster defenses.
One critical factor of this game is which unit generates the most takeaways—and it might just be one. Heading into the contest, the teams have a combined three turnovers.
Recent trends may provide some guidance, too. The Cornhuskers were just 1-3 against the spread as a home favorite last season. Conversely, the Ducks were 4-0 ATS as road underdogs.
Nebraska has a shot to steal a close win, but Oregon covers regardless.
The Pick: Oregon (+3)
Mississippi State vs. No. 20 LSU
6 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The Line: LSU (-13)
Quick note to begin: Odds Shark does not yet list a consensus spread, likely because of LSU's various undetermined situations. The 12-point edge is the average of available books.
Now, the college football world has a proper suspicion that Danny Etling will replace Brandon Harris under center. Plus, Leonard Fournette is expected to return after sitting out one game. But head coach Les Miles has confirmed neither topic.
Based on Etling starting and Fournette being fully cleared, the Tigers overpower a strong Mississippi State defensive line. With Harris and a limited Fournette, LSU struggles at home.
This page will be updated prior to Saturday's action.
Update
According to a video released by the school, Miles anticipates Etling "will take the first snap" and Fournette will play.
The Pick: LSU (-13)
No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Oklahoma
7 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Line: Ohio State (-1.5)
Oklahoma needs to redeem itself after a loss to Houston. Ohio State wants to prove a young roster is ready for the spotlight. Saturday's contest has College Football Playoff implications.
Unfortunately for the Sooners, trends are not on their side. With Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Oklahoma is just 4-3 against the spread as the home team and 2-4 in nonconference games.
Meanwhile, since head coach Urban Meyer's arrival in 2012, the Buckeyes are 12-6 ATS on the road. Quarterback J.T. Barrett has helped lift the program to a 9-4 ATS mark during the last two-plus seasons.
Ohio State swipes a tight road victory.
The Pick: Ohio State (-1.5)
No. 12 Michigan State vs. No. 18 Notre Dame
8 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Line: Notre Dame (-7.5)
Head coach Brian Kelly's team simply cannot afford a second loss. With preference given to conference champions, the Irish will need utter chaos to reach the CFP despite having a pair of blemishes.
Notre Dame loses again—only this time in a column that has no bearing on the program.
The Irish must deal with a rested Michigan State squad looking to erase a sluggish season opener from memory. Additionally, the Spartans present arguably the toughest defense quarterback DeShone Kizer and Co. will encounter in 2016.
Although MSU narrowly edges the spread, Notre Dame celebrates a season-saving victory Saturday night.
The Pick: Michigan State (+7.5)
USC vs. No. 7 Stanford
9 of 10
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Stanford (-9)
USC's thin defensive line is not exactly a recipe for success opposite Christian McCaffrey and the bruising Stanford offense. Alabama amassed 242 yards and three touchdowns in the opener.
Last season, the Trojans were 4-6 against the spread when taking on Pac-12 teams. Stanford was 8-2 ATS versus conference opponents.
It won't take long for McCaffrey to establish himself, and the Cardinal cruise to a two-touchdown triumph.
The Pick: Stanford (-9)
Other Top 25 Games
10 of 10
No. 21 Baylor (-30) vs. Rice
When: Friday, Sept. 16, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
After trudging into the locker room against SMU tied at six, Baylor scored 34 points in the second half. The Bears travel to Rice, but the most effective way to silence a home crowd is effectively running the ball. Seth Russell, Shock Linwood and Terence Williams propel Baylor to a blowout on Friday night.
The Pick: Baylor (-30)
Georgia State vs. No. 9 Wisconsin (-34)
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, noon ET (Big Ten Network)
Wisconsin is going to win, and the final score won't be anywhere remotely close. However, Georgia State—since head coach Trent Miles accepted the job in 2013—is 14-4 against the spread on the road. The Badgers diverted from a trend last week, but we'll stick with recent history instead of a small sample size and take the points.
The Pick: Georgia State (+34)
Ohio vs. No. 15 Tennessee (-27.5)
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, noon ET (SEC Network)
One quarter into the Battle at Bristol, Tennessee looked like everything detractors suggested. Just after the midpoint of the final frame, the Vols had ripped off 45 of the game's last 48 points. The annual clash with Florida looms, so Tennessee must be careful not to look past Ohio. That won't happen, but the Vols removing starters boosts Ohio late.
The Pick: Ohio (+27.5)
Colorado vs. No. 4 Michigan (-20.5)
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Eventually, the Wolverines will face a tough opponent. Colorado is not that. Michigan's defense should lock down the Buffs, who deserve credit for smashing both Colorado State and Idaho State but simply aren't built to compete with head coach Jim Harbaugh's club. Michigan is 6-2 against the spread as a home favorite under Harbaugh.
The Pick: Michigan (-20.5)
No. 17 Texas A&M vs. Auburn (-3.5)
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Auburn has a chance to prove both its defensive performance versus Clemson and offensive resurgence opposite Arkansas State weren't outliers. Texas A&M was 0-4 against the spread as an underdog in 2015, but quarterback issues plagued that squad. Trevor Knight is a massive upgrade, and the Aggies run defense is also much improved. This SEC battle should come down to a kicker.
The Pick: Texas A&M (+3.5)
No. 16 Georgia (-7) vs. Missouri
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Following a terrific win against a ranked North Carolina team, Georgia expected to steamroll Nicholls State. Well, that didn't happen. Now, the Bulldogs need to recover from the shocking two-point win against Missouri, which should roll out a feisty front seven. After the near-embarrassment at home, though, Nick Chubb and Co. manage a double-digit triumph in Columbia.
The Pick: Georgia (-7)
North Texas vs. No. 23 Florida (-36)
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Florida went from struggling against Massachusetts to completely stomping Kentucky. Who knows which Gators team shows up? But North Texas just isn't a good program right now. Head coach Seth Littrell's rebuild will be a long process, and the Mean Green's uptempo offense means they fail fast and give Florida more opportunities for a huge margin.
The Pick: Florida (-36)
Texas State vs. No. 24 Arkansas (-31)
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Arkansas has a similar outlook to Florida. The Razorbacks squeaked out a one-point victory against Louisiana Tech but stormed back to beat TCU on the road. Head coach Bret Bielema's team will have no problem dispatching Texas State, but the Tyler Jones-led Bobcats present a respectable offensive threat. Two touchdowns are enough to nip Arkansas's spread while the Hogs burn the clock on the ground.
The Pick: Texas State (+31)
No. 11 Texas (-8) vs. Cal
When: Saturday, Sept. 17, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cal is an important test for Texas. If the Longhorns fail to contain Davis Webb, should the country expect them to limit Mayfield, Russell or Kenny Hill later this year? But this nonconference tilt will more reflect Texas vs. Texas Tech, which might be better off pretending its defense doesn't exist. Cal was 2-3 against the spread as a home underdog last year, and the defense is only worse.
The Pick: Texas (-8)
Note: No spreads listed for Nos. 5 Clemson (South Carolina State), 8 Washington (Portland State) or 13 Iowa (North Dakota State).
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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