Bold Predictions for 2016 College Football Fall Camp
College football will be here before you know it.
That's not exactly what you'd call a bold prediction, as anyone who follows the sport has been anxiously counting down the days since the 2015 season ended in January. It's been almost six months since Alabama beat Clemson in the national championship, but we're now less than four weeks away from the first game of 2016 and less than a month away from the first full slate of action over Labor Day Weekend.
Between now and then, though, is a critical period for every FBS team in the country. Preseason training camp is when all those offseason plans get implemented and then tweaked and finessed to fit ever-fluctuating rosters. Highly regarded prospects join practice for the first time, ongoing position battles get decided and teams start to figure out what their strengths and weaknesses are.
And as is the case every preseason, some unexpected developments also occur. Here are some predictions of what will go down between now and when the 2016 season begins.
At Least Four True-Freshman QBs Win Starting Jobs for Power-Conference Teams
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We'll get things started with a prediction that's already looking like it will be 75 percent true before training camp begins.
Several true-freshman quarterbacks made major strides during spring practice, three of whom are in great positions to be starters in Week 1: Georgia's Jacob Eason, South Carolina's Brandon McIlwain and Texas' Shane Buechele. If each is able to continue to perform this month like he did a few months ago, each will be taking the first snap for his team in the season opener.
But a few other first-year passers will emerge during training camp to push for starting jobs, with at least one getting the nod for a power-conference team.
"Arizona State is the only FBS school without a quarterback on its roster who has thrown a pass at the Division I level," Scout.com's Kerry Crowley wrote of the competition between sophomore Manny Wilkins, redshirt freshmen Bryce Perkins and Brady White and true freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole. Sterling-Cole is the only one who wasn't part of spring practice, but since that competition didn't result in a decision, he has as good a shot as any to win the job.
The same goes for Rutgers' Tylin Oden, one of two passers joining the competition this summer along with TCU transfer Zach Allen. Veterans Chris Laviano and Hayden Rettig have more experience, but it's a new staff with Chris Ash taking over as coach, and anything can happen.
First-year Maryland coach D.J. Durkin is considering five quarterbacks, two of whom are true freshmen: Max Bortenschlager and Tyrrell Pigrome. While mobility will be essential for whoever wins the job, taking care of the ball will be vital, as returners Caleb Rowe and Perry Hills combined for 28 of the Terrapins' FBS-high 29 interceptions last year.
Also giving strong consideration to a true-freshman starter is Utah, where after four seasons of Travis Wilson, the three candidates to succeed him include Tyler Huntley. He was the star of the Utes' spring game, taking advantage of the absence of junior college transfer (and former Washington QB) Troy Williams, who was out because of a sore arm.
A 2-Star Prospect from the 2016 Class Will Start for a High-Profile Team
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247Sports rated Scooby Wright as the No. 2,082 prospect in the 2013 class, which led to his nickname of "2-Star Scoob." He went on to start for Arizona as a true freshman and then win three national defensive awards in his sophomore season. If not for knee and foot injuries in 2015, he likely would have been drafted higher in April than his seventh-round spot.
For all the 5-star prospects who come to college campuses with a ton of hype and fanfare, there are a few complete unknowns who emerge each preseason to make names for themselves. Most don't end up rising to the level of Wright, but for now, we're only interested in their ability to beat out teammates for a starting job.
Four players who made ESPN.com's True Freshman All-America Team last season were rated outside the top 350 in the 2015 class, including TCU linebacker Montrel Wilson, who was 1,020th overall. Those guys weren't projected as starters at this point last year, and a few others who lack much fanfare will rise to the top of the depth charts before August is over.
A Head Coach Who Works Elsewhere in 2017 Will Land a Contract Extension
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The offseason coaching carousel has such a grip on college football that it can influence things throughout the year—not just in the winter months, when dozens of FBS jobs change hands each year. Knowing that some coaches will become hot commodities as soon as openings pop up this fall, schools will do whatever they can to lock up their guys for the long term.
That means contract extensions, as well as raises, will be handed out partly because a coach's name gets mentioned for other gigs.
Houston's Tom Herman got a major raise in December to $2.8 million per season through 2020. The school made the move in hopes of preventing Herman from bolting to a power-conference team after just one highly successful season. It still probably won't be enough, even with Houston among the schools trying to get into the Big 12, and the rumors about Herman's future have already started.
Though Herman denied reports of being in contact with Baylor about its opening, saying they're "completely ridiculous and absolutely false," per Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle, the fact that the story is out there may prompt Houston to throw more money at him. If that happens, he won't turn it down, but it in no way ensures he'll still be coaching the Cougars in 2017.
With that in mind, expect an FBS head coach to land an extension this month and then either coach at another school, retire or get fired after the year is over.
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A Surprise Uniform Update Will Overshadow Michigan's Big Reveal
4 of 8While several college football teams have unveiled new uniforms this offseason, Michigan's new unis in 2016 have drawn the most attention. A special ceremony is planned for Tuesday in Detroit, where the Nike threads—the first under the Jordan brand for a football team—will make their official debut.
The Wolverines' new gear will likely draw rave reviews, especially since the university's time as an Adidas school was mostly derided.
But sometime before the month is over—and with no advance warning—another power program will shock the college football world by revealing its own updated look. And we're not just talking about the addition of a black jersey, which seems to be an annual rumor for schools like Alabama and Oklahoma.
There are quite a few notable teams who could use an update, and there are others who haven't made a change in years (if ever). Don't be surprised if some school decides to pull the trigger on a uniform makeover that no one saw coming.
The Injury Bug Leaves Most Teams Alone
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Try as they might, college football coaches cannot prevent injuries from happening. The push to get their teams ready for the season while also limiting the danger they put their players in during workouts leads to many unpredictable occurrences, which often result in a freak injury.
The NCAA and American Football Coaches Association have reportedly discussed eliminating kickoffs in the interest of player safety, and this offseason, the Ivy League banned tackling during regular-season practices. These are among many steps that are being taken to make college football safer, but no amount of rule changes can completely prevent injuries.
Training camps hadn't even started before word got out that Florida State sophomore defensive back Derwin James would be out several weeks after undergoing foot surgery. We can only hope that's the last significant injury that happens in the build toward the 2016 season, but history says otherwise.
Last August saw the likes of Arkansas running back Jonathan Williams, Nebraska wide receiver and return man De'Mornay Pierson-El and Ohio State receiver Noah Brown go down with major injuries. Only Pierson-El returned in 2015, only to get hurt again and be lost for the season.
Of all the predictions we're making, we hope this one more than any other comes true: no major season-ending ailments.
The Big 12 Chooses Its Expansion Targets, but There's a Twist!
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Ever since the Big 12 Conference's board of governors announced last month it would pursue adding two to four teams to its 10-school lineup, expansion has become the talk of the offseason. A number of prospective schools have made public pitches as to why they deserve consideration—East Carolina has boasted it would make for a great travel partner with existing member West Virginia—to the point that the process is starting to feel like a college football version of The Bachelor.
CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd wrote last week the league "would prefer to wrap up the expansion process before the start of the 2016 football season," which for the Big 12 begins Sept. 2, when Baylor hosts Northwestern State and Kansas State visits Stanford. That means any decision on future teams would happen during training camp.
The conference has been painstakingly working behind the scenes to expedite this process, but can it get it all done this month? Probably not, which is why, on Sept. 1, the Big 12 will announce a list of "finalists" for expansion with a target date of Nov. 1 to officially choose its new members.
The final group will include BYU, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Houston and Memphis, as well as a sixth school that hasn't received as much attention as a potential addition.
Steve Spurrier Returns to the Florida Sideline...As a Volunteer
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Steve Spurrier retired from coaching in October, leaving South Carolina midway through what ended up being a dismal 3-9 season. Since then, he has managed to stay busy—to the point that Washington State head coach Mike Leach called him a "fidgeter" at Pac-12 media day.
He was recently hired by his old school, Florida, to be an ambassador and consultant for the athletic department. Later this season, the Gators' field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium will be renamed in his honor.
"I did not want to be a retired dude and do nothing," the 71-year-old Spurrier said in July, per Edgar Thompson of the Florida Times-Union.
Though Spurrier's official duties in this new role haven't been defined, don't expect them to be limited to hanging around the office. On Monday, he tried to arrange a game of catch with writers from Florida's official website, and current Florida coach Jim McElwain told Chris Low of ESPN.com that Spurrier attended several practices during spring camp.
Doug Nussmeier is Florida's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, but before August is done, he might have a volunteer assistant helping him sort out the team's QB situation.
Bronco Mendenhall Sticks with the RV Life
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First-year Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall and his family have had some unique accommodations since he was hired away from BYU in the winter. While their house was being built in Charlottesville, they spent time in a hotel and a cabin in Montana, but most of the duration involved living in an RV parked on the same site as their future home.
Mendenhall said at ACC media day that he and his family expected their house to be ready to move into by the beginning of August. But about a week or so into preseason practice, Mendenhall will find himself longing for those simpler times when his bed pulled out from the wall and the living room had a steering wheel.
At several points during August, Mendenhall will roll up to the Cavaliers' practice field in the RV, emerging one time in survival gear and weaving that outfit into a motivational speech about being one with the land and how his players should be one with the turf. The Virginia players, already loving the energy Mendenhall and his staff have brought with them, will eat it up.
Virginia has had only one winning season in the past eight years, so any change from the status quo will be welcomed.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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