Predicting 2016 Win-Loss Record for Every New College Football Head Coach
You only get one chance to make a first impression. That’s especially true in college football. The amount of money and attention flowing into the game has never been higher, but it has also ratcheted up the pressure surrounding head coaches.
Of the 128 FBS head coaches, only 31 will begin 2016 with as much as five seasons’ worth of experience with their current programs. And only nine have spent a decade with the same team (that doesn’t count Bill Snyder, who will begin the eighth season of his second stint at Kansas State). In other words, the game is built for turnover. Twenty-eight coaches will begin their first seasons with new programs in 2016 following an active coaching carousel.
Getting off to a strong start, while not a magic cure-all, certainly does a world of good. And all 28 new coaches would love to endear themselves to their new followings with excellent 2016 campaigns. Not all of them will, of course. Here’s a shot at predicting the first-year records for every new coach in the FBS.
Baylor Coach Jim Grobe
1 of 28
It’s been a tough offseason, to say the least, at Baylor. The Bears hoped to build on a strong 10-3 season despite returning only nine starters, but on-field matters took a back seat to the scandal that toppled Art Briles’ reign.
Briles was fired while chancellor Kenneth Starr was stripped of his power and athletic director Ian McCaw resigned after an independent investigator concluded that Briles and his staff had obstructed and misled investigations into allegations of sexual assault and dating violence against his players.
Eleven recruits were released from their national letters of intent, per ESPN.com's Mark Schlabach, (including star guard Patrick Hudson and top receiver Devin Duvernay), and former Wake Forest coach Jim Grobe was brought to calm the waters as “acting” head coach. It’s a big task, but plenty of talent remains in Waco.
Grobe and his staff must decide between Seth Russell and Jarrett Stidham under center, but they have potent receivers to throw to, including KD Cannon, who had 50 receptions for 868 yards and six scores as a sophomore. However, center Kyle Fuller is the only returning starting offensive lineman, and no starters return on the defensive line.
TCU and Oklahoma State both visit, although a Nov. 12 visit to Oklahoma will be tough. Still, if Grobe steers the ship correctly, we won’t see much drop-off yet.
Projected record: 9-3
Ball State Coach Mike Neu
2 of 28
Mike Neu had carved out a successful niche as an NFL assistant coach, but the lure of home proved too strong for him to overcome. Neu led Ball State to a 1993 MAC title as quarterback, and the Cardinals needed him again last winter.
The Cardinals slipped from 10-3 in 2013 to 3-9 last fall under Pete Lembo, who headed to Maryland as an assistant to D.J. Durkin’s staff. They return 14 starters, but only five on offense, and must replace four of five starting offensive linemen. Sophomore quarterback Riley Neal threw for 2,776 yards with 16 touchdowns against six interceptions last fall.
However, the big questions surround a defense that returns nine starters but gave up 35.8 points per game in 2015 (No. 108 nationally). Experience will help, but the MAC West had four bowl teams last year. Improvement won’t be easy.
Projected record: 4-8
Bowling Green Coach Mike Jinks
3 of 28
Bowling Green has emerged as a beast of the MAC East. The Falcons have won two league titles in three seasons. The problem? Keeping their coaches. Dave Clawson won a league title in 2013, then jumped to Wake Forest. Successor Dino Babers bolted for Syracuse after winning the MAC title last fall. BG officials turned to Texas Tech assistant Mike Jinks to keep the good times and fast-paced offense rolling.
He returns only four starters from an offense that averaged a MAC-best 42.2 points per game. Quarterback James Knapke threw for 3,173 yards and 15 touchdowns as a sophomore while making 13 starts for the injured Matt Johnson. He should be fine at the helm, but the Falcons need wideouts to step forward alongside Ronnie Moore (72 receptions, 954 yards, six scores in 2015).
Still, the Falcons should remain the class of the MAC East. Their non-conference slate (Ohio State, Middle Tennessee, Memphis) isn’t easy, but this looks like another eight-win team.
Projected record: 8-4
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BYU Coach Kalani Sitake
4 of 28
Kalani Sitake has to feel pretty good about how the coaching carousel unfolded last winter. Instead of taking heat for being at the helm of an Oregon State defense that allowed 37 points per game, No. 114 nationally, Sitake became BYU’s head coach, replacing Bronco Mendenhall. Mendenhall won 99 games and took the Cougars to 11 bowl games in 11 seasons, and fans expect Sitake to maintain that standard.
The Cougars return 12 starters, but the biggest question is at quarterback. Sixth-year senior Taysom Hill showed promise but can’t stay healthy; each of his last two seasons ended with leg injuries. Backup Tanner Mangum took over after Hill suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in the 2015 season opener and threw for 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Sitake must pick a starter this fall.
As an independent, the schedule isn’t easy. BYU opens with Arizona, Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, and only the Bruins come to Provo. An October stretch that features trips to Michigan State and Boise State sandwiched around a home game with Mississippi State is also stressful.
The Cougars will make another bowl, but there’s a reason the independent route is so stressful.
Projected record: 7-5
Central Florida Coach Scott Frost
5 of 28
Central Florida fans have to be asking themselves one question: How did it get so bad, so quickly? Three years ago, the Knights were the best mid-major team in college football, finishing 2013 by beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl. But in 2015, the Knights hit rock bottom, joining Kansas as the only 0-12 teams in the FBS.
That cost George O’Leary his jobs as head coach and interim athletic director, and Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost came in to clean up the mess. Frost will bring the same fast-paced scheme he ran with such success in Eugene, but it remains unclear how quickly the Knights will adjust to it.
Senior quarterback Justin Holman has flashed skills when he has been healthy, and he’ll throw to sophomore wideout Tre’Quan Smith, who had 52 receptions for 724 yards and four touchdowns last fall.
UCF returns 11 starters, including five from a defense that allowed 37.7 points per game last fall, No. 118 nationally. The American Athletic Conference is the best “Group of Five” league, but games against South Carolina State, Florida International, Maryland and Tulane are winnable, at a minimum.
Projected record: 4-8
East Carolina Coach Scottie Montgomery
6 of 28
East Carolina’s move away from Ruffin McNeill raised a few eyebrows outside of Greenville, North Carolina. The Pirates finished 5-7 last fall, but that broke a three-year streak of postseason trips. ECU officials moved in a different direction, hiring up-and-coming assistant Scottie Montgomery away from Duke.
Montgomery is expected to install a more balanced offense than McNeill’s Air Raid scheme, using Rutgers transfer Phillip Nelson under center. The Pirates return only four offensive starters, but two of them are senior receivers Davon Grayson and Isaiah Jones. On defense, upperclassmen DaShaun Amos and Travon Simmons will be anchors in the secondary.
The schedule includes nonconference faceoffs with South Carolina and Virginia Tech, but both are winnable games. The Pirates get South Florida at home and avoid Houston and Memphis from the other side of the AAC. This team could border on postseason play.
Projected record: 5-7
Georgia Coach Kirby Smart
7 of 28
This fall will be all about new beginnings at Georgia—a new head coach and, maybe, a new quarterback. After 15 seasons that featured a 145-51 record with two SEC titles, nine 10-win seasons and 15 bowl games, Mark Richt and Georgia parted ways after three consecutive seasons without an SEC East title.
Georgia hopes Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart can restore the Bulldogs’ bite. He is regarded as one of the nation’s top assistants but must prove himself as a head coach.
Job No. 1 will be picking between Greyson Lambert, Brice Ramsey and highly touted freshman Jacob Eason at quarterback. Questions remain about whether star tailback Nick Chubb, whose 2015 season ended following torn knee ligaments in early October, will be ready for the season opener against North Carolina.
The defense has some holes but should feature plenty of talent, including defensive tackle Trent Thompson, linebackers Davin Bellamy and Lorenzo Carter and safety Dominick Sanders.
The schedule is favorable. Georgia trades an SEC West crossover against Alabama for a road trip to Ole Miss. Rivals Tennessee, Auburn and Georgia Tech all come to Sanford Stadium. Besides Ole Miss, there isn’t another road game against a returning postseason team.
The projection? This team should at least match Richt’s last win total.
Projected record: 9-3
Georgia Southern Coach Tyson Summers
8 of 28
Georgia Southern has quickly shown that it belongs in the FBS. The Eagles were a strong FCS power, and they’ve carried that success over into the Sun Belt. In two seasons, they are 17-9, including last fall’s 9-4 record that was capped by a 58-27 GoDaddy Bowl rout of Bowling Green.
That success comes with a price, however. Tulane plucked Willie Fritz as its new head coach, leaving Tyson Summers as the program’s third head coach in four seasons.
Summers will keep the spread option that churned out 363 rushing yards per game (tops in the FBS), keyed by tailback Matt Breida and quarterback Kevin Ellison. But he’s looking for a more balanced attack. The Eagles threw four touchdowns against 10 interceptions last fall, with Ellison throwing four TDs against five interceptions and passing for 597 yards, completing 44.9 percent of his passes.
Georgia Southern will be a Sun Belt contender once again. Tough road games at Ole Miss and Georgia Tech loom, but the Eagles have scared Tech, Georgia and N.C. State in the last two seasons and won’t be intimidated. Appalachian State also comes to Statesboro.
Projected record: 9-3
Hawaii Coach Nick Rolovich
9 of 28
Hawaii is located in the middle of paradise, but its position in college football’s hierarchy is anything but envied. The Rainbow Warriors have slipped badly since former coach June Jones led them to a Sugar Bowl while playing exciting, wide-open football.
Norm Chow went 10-36 before being fired near the end of the 2015 season, and former Hawaii quarterback and assistant Nick Rolovich was hired away from Nevada to replace him. The program is a shell of what it once was; its location in the middle of the Pacific Ocean makes it difficult to recruit, as recent on-field results have shown. Two years ago, athletic director Ben Jay suggested, per CBSSports.com's Dennis Dodd, that a $2.1 million deficit might lead to the program’s demise, a statement he later backed off of, per a press release from the school (via SB Nation).
How does Rolovich turn around Hawaii’s fortunes? It won’t be easy. The Warriors do return 14 starters, led by 1,000-yard rusher Paul Harris, but averaged only 17.6 points per game last fall, a far cry from the Jones era.
Their schedule begins with a game against Cal in Sydney, Australia, and rolls to Michigan the following week. Road games against Arizona and San Diego State will also be tough. It’s hard to project more than three wins from this bunch.
Projected record: 3-10
Iowa State Coach Matt Campbell
10 of 28
By the end of 2015, it was clear it was time for a change in Ames. After taking Iowa State to three bowls in four seasons, affable coach Paul Rhoads fell off a cliff, going 8-28 with four Big 12 wins in the next three seasons. Even for ISU’s loyal fanbase, that was too much. Rhoads was fired and replaced by energetic Toledo coach Matt Campbell.
The Cyclones return 12 starters, led by sophomore tailback Mike Warren, who rushed for 1,339 yards and five touchdowns, as well as receiver Allen Lazard, one of the Big 12’s most talented wideouts. Quarterback Joel Lanning also flashed dual-threat potential.
The schedule is not easy, with trips to Iowa and TCU in September. The Cyclones also must head to Oklahoma State and Texas in consecutive weeks, but they do host Baylor and Oklahoma. Campbell’s energy will be good for improvement, but how much?
Projected record: 4-8
Illinois Coach Lovie Smith
11 of 28
Has any program had a more tumultuous past 10 months than Illinois? Let’s recap. In mid-August 2015, embattled coach Tim Beckman was fired after an internal investigation revealed negative conduct toward players. Bill Cubit took over as interim head coach and did a passable job, going 5-7 and just missing postseason play. He was rewarded with a promotion into the role on a full-time basis via a short two-year contract.
But just as spring practice was about to begin, new Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman fired Cubit in his first official day as AD, replacing him with former Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith.
Whitman told Scott Dochterman of the Cedar Rapids Gazette that hiring Smith was a "transformational opportunity":
"When I realized there was an opportunity to attract someone like Lovie Smith, that moment might not have been there six months from now or a year from now. Sometimes opportunities present themselves and if you stand there and hesitate, it will pass you by and you miss out on what could be a transformational opportunity for your program. We had the opportunity to go out and hire one of the best football coaches in America. If we didn’t have that opportunity, we might have made a different decision. But we did. We feel really good about it.
"
How quickly can Smith, who hasn’t coached college football since serving as an Ohio State assistant in 1995, readjust to the game? Illinois returns only nine starters and suffered a big blow when receiver Mike Dudek, one of the Big Ten’s top pass-catchers, suffered his second torn ACL in as many seasons in spring practice. Senior quarterback Wes Lunt is a solid passer and leader.
On defense, the line will be a strength, and Cal graduate transfer linebacker Hardy Nickerson Jr., the son of new defensive coordinator Hardy Nickerson Sr., will stabilize the middle. A schedule that includes North Carolina, trips to Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin will be unforgiving. This could go down as a transition year.
Projected record: 3-9
Louisiana-Monroe Coach Matt Viator
12 of 28
There isn’t a lot of pressure at Louisiana-Monroe, because the Warhawks have known little success in their time as an NCAA Division I-A program. In 22 seasons at the game’s highest level, ULM has one winning season. That came in 2012, when the Warhawks upset Arkansas and went to the Independence Bowl, finishing 8-5. There have been other highlights, like a 2007 upset of Alabama, but they’ve been few and far between.
Coach Todd Berry was fired after going 12-25 in his final three seasons at the program’s helm. He was replaced by McNeese State coach Matt Viator. Viator had great success in 10 seasons at McNeese, going 78-33 with five FCS playoff appearances.
He takes over one of the worst programs in the FBS. The Warhawks scored just 21 points per game last fall, worst in the Sun Belt and No. 111 nationally. Viator must get more out of quarterback Garrett Smith, who threw 17 touchdowns against 11 interceptions.
The schedule is brutal, with trips to Oklahoma, Auburn and Georgia Southern in the first four weeks. ULM has only five home games. This will not be an overnight rebuild for Viator.
Projected record: 2-10
Maryland Coach D.J. Durkin
13 of 28
D.J. Durkin’s job is simple—inject some enthusiasm into a program that had little under Randy Edsall. Edsall never seemed to be that inspiring of a coach, and his high-water mark wound up as a pair of 7-6 bowl seasons in 2013 and 2014. He was canned midway through 2015 with a 28-33 record, and Maryland officials turned to the high-energy Durkin.
Durkin has served as defensive coordinator for Jim Harbaugh and Urban Meyer, and now he must compete against both in the rugged Big Ten East along with Michigan State and Penn State. That will be a difficult task.
Maryland returns 10 starters, but pumping up an offense that finished 13th in the Big Ten in passing last fall is a must. Quarterbacks Perry Hills and Caleb Rowe are both back, and they combined for 14 touchdowns against 28 interceptions last year.
The schedule opens with Howard, Florida International, Central Florida and Purdue—all winnable games—but Maryland must also travel to Penn State, Michigan and Nebraska and host Ohio State and Michigan State. In other words, the road gets a lot tougher in the second half of the season.
Projected record: 5-7
Memphis Coach Mike Norvell
14 of 28
Mike Norvell had a good thing going at Arizona State. He was Todd Graham’s right-hand man and offensive coordinator, and his system fueled a pair of 10-win seasons. So it was going to take something special to pry him away from the Valley of the Sun. That something was the Memphis job.
Justin Fuente headed to Virginia Tech as Frank Beamer’s replacement after winning 19 games, and Norvell, who runs a similar fast-paced offensive attack, was a natural choice to continue the program’s renaissance. He’ll have to do so without quarterback Paxton Lynch, a first-round pick of the NFL’s Denver Broncos.
Former Tennessee quarterback Riley Ferguson or redshirt freshman Brady Davis will be his likely replacement, joining a roster that returns 14 starters, including eight on defense. The new quarterback will throw to Phil Mayhue, who had 51 receptions for 670 yards last fall.
Ole Miss is the toughest foe on the nonconference schedule, and Houston, South Florida and Temple all come to Memphis. If the new quarterback is competent, the good times will roll along the river.
Projected record: 8-4
Miami Coach Mark Richt
15 of 28
In 12 seasons as an ACC member, know how many trips to the ACC championship Miami has made? You guessed it: zero. That just isn’t acceptable for Hurricane fans, and last fall, Al Golden paid the price. He was fired after a program-worst 58-0 home loss to Clemson, finishing his tenure at 32-25.
Miami received an excellent break when alum Mark Richt parted ways with Georgia following 15 seasons and quickly snapped up the south Florida native. Richt has plenty to work with.
Miami has 16 starters returning, led by junior quarterback Brad Kaaya, one of the nation’s top passers. Tailback Joseph Yearby is a returning 1,000-yard rusher, and receiver Stacy Coley caught 47 passes for 689 yards and four touchdowns a year ago. He leads a young but talented receiver corps that includes Braxton Berrios and talented sophomore tight end David Njoku.
New defensive coordinator Manny Diaz hopes an attacking scheme will get better results from a unit that returns seven starters but ranked No. 12 in the ACC in scoring defense last fall. The secondary has issues beyond senior cornerback Corn Elder and senior safety Rayshawn Jenkins, but the defensive line will be a strength.
The schedule has positives and negatives. Following an odd trip to Appalachian State and a visit to Georgia Tech in the first four games, the ‘Canes host Florida State and North Carolina before traveling to Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. The potential to challenge for an ACC Coastal title is there.
Projected record: 8-4
Missouri Coach Barry Odom
16 of 28
When veteran coach Gary Pinkel stepped down at the end of 2015, Missouri didn’t venture far for his replacement, promoting defensive coordinator Barry Odom into the head coach’s seat. He earned the promotion. The Tigers defense was excellent, allowing just 16.2 points per game (fifth-best nationally) and 302 yards per game (No. 2 nationally).
However, if Odom wants to find success in his first season in the big chair, he’ll need improvement from a wretched offense. Missouri averaged just 13.6 points per game last fall, second-worst nationally. Sophomore quarterback Drew Lock has an experienced receiving corps, plus Alabama graduate transfer Chris Black is returning, but he needs much better numbers. Last fall, he threw for 1,332 yards with four touchdowns against eight interceptions.
Missouri opens at West Virginia and also travels to LSU, Florida and Tennessee. It’s not an easy schedule, and returning to bowl eligibility will be a challenge unless the offense pulls its weight.
Projected record: 5-7
North Texas Coach Seth Littrell
17 of 28
At North Carolina, Seth Littrell rode the wave with Larry Fedora to an ACC Coastal Division title and 11 victories last fall. His reward? Cleaning up the mess at North Texas. The Mean Green went to four consecutive bowl games from 2001-04 but have made only one since, finishing 1-11 last fall and costing Dan McCarney his job in the process.
Littrell wants to run the fast-paced spread offense that he used to success in Chapel Hill, rolling up 40.7 points per game (No. 9 nationally). But recruiting to that system will take time, and this will be a transition year with former Alabama quarterback Alec Morris at the helm.
The Mean Green have winnable September games against SMU and Bethune-Cookman, but beyond that, Texas San-Antonio might be the only real mark. Of the 11 losses last fall, all but one came by at least two touchdowns. A defense that allowed 41.3 points per game last fall must be more competent.
Projected record: 1-11
Rutgers Coach Chris Ash
18 of 28
When Rutgers hired Chris Ash, he took over a program that had experience but was embroiled in turmoil following Kyle Flood’s tenure. The Scarlet Knights return 15 starters, including eight on offense, but following a 4-8 season, there’s a question about whether that’s a positive or a negative.
Flood hopes to run an up-tempo scheme similar to what his old boss Urban Meyer employed at Ohio State, but Flood recruited a roster full of pro-style players, including quarterback Chris Laviano. Wide receiver Janarion Grant has excellent athleticism and is a dangerous punt returner, but he must build on a 35-catch, 352-yard, one-score junior season.
A defense that yielded 34.9 points per game, No. 12 in the Big Ten, will be tested again by a schedule that includes trips to Washington, Ohio State and Michigan State and home dates with Iowa, Michigan and Penn State. Improvement from 2015 won’t be easy.
Projected record: 3-9
South Carolina Coach Will Muschamp
19 of 28
Will Muschamp has experience taking over for a legendary head coach at an SEC East school. South Carolina fans hope the second time is better than the first. Muschamp was Urban Meyer’s successor at Florida, but he was forced out after a 28-21 record in four seasons, never coming close to the standards set by Meyer’s pair of national titles.
Expectations are a bit lower in Columbia. The Gamecocks enjoyed three consecutive 11-win seasons under Steve Spurrier but slipped badly as Spurrier left halfway through a 3-9 season punctuated by a home loss to FCS foe The Citadel.
South Carolina returns only three offensive starters after losing its top playmaker, Pharoh Cooper, to the NFL, and must pick from Brandon McIlwain, Perry Orth, Michael Scarnecchia and freshman Jake Bentley at quarterback. In addition, the top returning defender, linebacker Skai Moore, will miss the season following neck surgery.
The Gamecocks open against SEC foes Vanderbilt and Mississippi State but do get Georgia, Texas A&M and Tennessee at home. They must travel to Florida and rival Clemson in November. A little advice to South Carolina fans: Have some patience with Muschamp. This will take a little while.
Projected record: 3-9
Southern California Coach Clay Helton
20 of 28
Clay Helton went from interim coach to Southern Calfornia’s full-time head coach with a strong performance. He replaced Steve Sarkisian and righted the ship, leading the Trojans to a Pac-12 South title and an 8-5 record.
Now, the real fun starts. Southern California returns 14 starters, including nine on offense, from a talented roster, but the Trojans will be tested by an extremely difficult schedule that starts with defending national champion Alabama in a neutral-site game in Arlington, Texas, and doesn’t get a lot easier from there.
September also brings back-to-back trips to Stanford and Utah, and the season ends with Oregon, trips to Washington and UCLA, and a home date with rival Notre Dame. Ouch.
All five starters return on the offensive line, as does standout receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster and backfield duo Justin Davis and Ronald Jones II (who combined for 1,889 rushing yards last fall). And don’t forget about cornerback Adoree’ Jackson, who plays corner, wide receiver and returns kicks, a threat to score every time he touches the ball.
But Helton must find a replacement for quarterback Cody Kessler between understudy Max Browne and mobile freshman Sam Darnold. Getting efficient quarterback play and quick learning from an inexperienced defensive line could prove to be the key this fall.
Projected record: 9-3
Southern Miss Coach Jay Hopson
21 of 28
Southern Miss is on the right track. After a 3-33 stretch covering three seasons, Todd Monken finally got the Golden Eagles headed in a positive direction last fall, guiding them to a 9-5 record that included a Conference USA West Division title and trip to the Heart of Dallas Bowl.
But the Eagles absorbed a speed bump when Monken left just before national signing day to become an assistant with the NFL’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. USM was fortunate to grab former Jeff Bower assistant Jay Hopson, who had been successful at in-state FCS school Alcorn State, going 32-17 in four years with a pair of SWAC titles.
Hopson inherits 12 starters, including C-USA Offensive Player of the Year Nick Mullens, who threw for 4,476 yards, 38 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last fall. He won’t change the Air Raid scheme Monken favored, making this a smooth transition.
This team should be the favorite in Conference USA. The only game that doesn’t look winnable is a trip to LSU, meaning a solid first season in Hattiesburg for Hopson.
Projected record: 10-2
Syracuse Coach Dino Babers
22 of 28
Following three years of Scott Shafer, Syracuse needed a change. Shafer used a balanced, boring offense that made no waves, landing firmly in the bottom half of the ACC in scoring, total offense, passing offense and rushing offense. The results were nothing special, either—seven wins over his last two seasons.
Orange officials hope Dino Babers’ fast-paced scheme is just what the program needs. Babers found success with a hurry-up offense at both FCS Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green, winning a MAC title in 2015.
Syracuse returns 15 starters, but the key will be oft-injured quarterback Eric Dungey, who threw 11 touchdowns against five interceptions as a freshman. Talented receiver Steve Ishmael (39 receptions, 570 yards, seven scores) could break out in this offense. Improving a defense that yielded 31 points per game last fall (No. 90 nationally) will be another challenge.
The ACC Atlantic Division is always tough with Clemson, Florida State and Louisville, and a neutral-site game against Notre Dame won’t be a walk in the park, either. The Seminoles and Cardinals do come to the Carrier Dome, but there will be growing pains in 2016.
Projected record: 4-8
Texas-San Antonio Coach Frank Wilson
23 of 28
Texas-San Antonio is still a growing program. The Roadrunners just aren’t growing as fast as officials had hoped. Former Miami coach Larry Coker was the only coach UTSA had ever known, and he did win 15 games between 2012-13. But the Roadrunners won only seven games combined in the next two seasons, and UTSA officials decided to make a change.
They settled on LSU assistant Frank Wilson, who has a reputation as a very good recruiter. However, it could take Wilson some time to get the players he wants. This fall, he’ll rely on running back Jarveon Williams, who rushed for 1,042 yards and eight scores as a junior.
The Roadrunners welcome Arizona State to the Alamodome but must travel to Colorado State and Old Dominion in the first month of the season, as well as Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech and Texas A&M in November. It could be a rough first year for Wilson.
Projected record: 3-9
Texas State Coach Everett Withers
24 of 28
The task Everett Withers faces at Texas State is clearly defined: finish the drill. The “drill,” of course, is making postseason play. In five seasons of FBS play, the Bobcats have been oh so close but just don't seem to have enough when it comes to a bowl game. Texas State has a pair of six-win seasons and a seven-win season but hasn’t made a bowl yet. Bobcats officials chose to replace Dennis Franchione after TSU slipped to a 3-9 record in 2015.
They hope Withers can change that pattern. He led North Carolina to a bowl as an interim head coach in 2011 and took James Madison to a pair of FCS playoff appearances with a 25-13 record in three seasons at JMU.
The Bobcats return only eight starters from last year. One of them is junior quarterback Tyler Jones, who threw for 2,517 yards with 14 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. However, TSU has questions at both tailback and wide receiver. Defense also needs a significant improvement after yielding 39.2 points per game in 2015.
September games against Arkansas and Houston will test this young group, but the Bobcats close with three of their final four games at home. If Withers’ new attitude rubs off, this team could challenge for that elusive bowl.
Projected record: 4-8
Toledo Coach Jason Candle
25 of 28
At its best, the Mid-American Conference can be a cradle for head coaches. Do well, move up, move on. Toledo is a perfect example of what the MAC can be. Five years ago, the Rockets lost Tim Beckman to Illinois and replaced him by promoting Matt Campbell.
Campbell was equal to the task, going 35-15 with four winning seasons and three bowl appearances in four years. He got Iowa State’s attention (beating the Cyclones in Toledo didn’t hurt) and was hired by ISU in December. Once more, Toledo promoted from within, elevating offensive coordinator Matt Candle into the head role.
It should be an easy transition. The Rockets return 11 starters, seven on offense, led by talented back Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 973 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. This is a team that can challenge for the MAC West title and an overall MAC championship.
Projected record: 9-3
Tulane Coach Willie Fritz
26 of 28
Sometimes, you just have to zig when everyone else zags. In recent years, the American Athletic Conference has trended toward pass-based spread offenses, with Houston, Memphis, Tulsa, SMU and Central Florida all adopting versions of the fast-paced scheme.
Tulane looked another way when it was time to replace Curtis Johnson. The Green Wave hired Georgia Southern coach Willie Fritz, who employs the flexbone option. Fritz led Georgia Southern to its first bowl game while leading the FBS in rushing, averaging 363 rushing yards per game.
The Green Wave needs something different. Since 2005, Tulane has had just one winning season, going 7-6 in 2013.
Hurricane Katrina rocked New Orleans, and it rocked Tulane’s football program, as well. The Green Wave were forced to spend a season on the road when Katrina hit, and despite opening a gleaming new stadium, they have yet to really recover. Tulane has won more than four games just once in the last decade, a 7-6 record in 2013.
The Green Wave return 11 starters but just four on offense. They’ll lean heavily on tailback Dontrell Hilliard, who should easily surpass his 2015 totals of 646 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The nonconference schedule is not intimidating, with Wake Forest, Southern, Louisiana-Lafayette and UMass. But with Memphis, Houston and Temple on the schedule, it’s hard to forecast a bowl this season.
Projected record: 3-9
Virginia Coach Bronco Mendenhall
27 of 28
Virginia scored one of the biggest coups of the 2016 coaching carousel by luring Bronco Mendenhall away from BYU. Mendenhall won 99 games as the Cougars coach, and he took BYU to 11 bowl games in 11 seasons. UVA would be very happy with that track record after watching Mike London put up a 27-46 record with one bowl trip.
Mendenhall must identify a quarterback. Senior Matt Johns threw 20 touchdowns against 17 interceptions but will compete with Connor Brewer and East Carolina graduate transfer Kurt Benkert. Taquan Mizzell led UVA in rushing yards, receiving yards and receptions and is an underrated star. Linebacker Micah Kiser and safety Quin Blanding are defensive standouts.
The schedule is a little easier but still features a trip to Oregon on Sept. 10 as well as visits from North Carolina and Louisville and trips to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech to close the season. The Cavaliers might have to wait another year for a return to the postseason.
Projected record: 4-8
Virginia Tech Coach Justin Fuente
28 of 28
Justin Fuente is taking on a big challenge at Virginia Tech. He’s the guy who follows “the guy,” which is never easy. “The guy,” of course, is Frank Beamer, who retired after 29 seasons as the longest-tenured coach in the FBS, with seven conference titles between the ACC and Big East.
Fuente is charged with adding energy to a program that slumped following eight consecutive seasons with at least 10 wins, going 29-23 in Beamer’s final four years. He’ll do so with a fast-paced system that won 19 games in his last two seasons at formerly moribund Memphis.
The Hokies must choose a quarterback between senior Brenden Motley and junior college transfer Jerod Evans, but they do return 14 starters, and wide receiver Isaiah Ford and tight end Bucky Hodges will give the starter a safety blanket. Fuente also retained defensive coordinator Bud Foster, one of the nation’s top overall assistants and a steady force for Beamer’s best teams.
The schedule is manageable, although the “Battle at Bristol” against Tennessee at Bristol Motor Speedway will be an early challenge. Tech does not face Clemson or Florida State from the ACC Atlantic but does travel to Notre Dame and defending ACC Coastal champion North Carolina. This team has the talent to win the Coastal.
Projected record: 8-4
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