2016 NBA Free Agents: 15 Sleepers You Need to Know
Contrary to popular belief, this summer won't be Kevin Durant's alone. Nor will LeBron James be the only other free agent to slice off a sizable chunk of the NBA's rapidly expanding revenue pie.
DeMar DeRozan, Andre Drummond and Al Horford will score big, too. So will Hassan Whiteside, Mike Conley and Dwight Howard.
True, the supply of franchise-changing superstars will be short this time around, especially compared to how much money will be up for grabs. But that doesn't mean teams and fans will or should dismiss anyone who isn't considered one of the 10 to 15 best players on the market.
What this year's free-agent class lacks in sizzle, it makes up for with some surprising steak. That includes these 15 players, listed in alphabetical order, all of whom could fill key roles for teams next season without breaking the bank.
Arron Afflalo, Shooting Guard (Player Option)
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Arron Afflalo hasn't opted out of his contract with the New York Knicks yet, but all signs point to him doing so in time to hit free agency in July.
Jeff Hornacek, the Knicks' new head coach, told WFAN that he expects the 30-year-old to join the fray, per ESPN's Ian Begley. Kurt Rambis, previously the team's interim coach, did his part to nudge Afflalo out the door by benching him in March.
Wherever he winds up, Afflalo wants to start.
“I still believe I’m one of the premier two-guards in this league," he told the New York Post's Marc Berman. "Part of being an elite two-guard in this league is opportunity. You have to be in a certain environment where you can excel and show what you can do. Hopefully that contributes to winning. I still believe I’m that player. I’ll find the best opportunity for me whether it’s in New York or anywhere else.’’
Whether Afflalo is close to the cream of his position's crop is a matter of some dispute. What is clear, though, is that the UCLA product is still a solid shooter (38.2 percent from the three-point line, 84.0 percent from the free-throw line last season) who brings an abundance of professionalism and veteran know-how into any locker room.
Kent Bazemore, Small Forward (Unrestricted)
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First, he was the chief cheerleader for the Golden State Warriors. Then, he was trade bait for the Los Angeles Lakers. Now, after two seasons with the Atlanta Hawks, Kent Bazemore is a bona fide NBA starter, with an eight-figure payday awaiting him.
Stepping in as DeMarre Carroll's replacement from the jump, Bazemore put together his best season yet. He posted career highs in points (11.6), rebounds (5.1), assists (2.3), steals (1.3), field-goal percentage (44.1 percent) and minutes (27.8) for a 48-win team.
Bazemore's future will be one of a handful of tough questions for the Hawks to answer, but it may be the most critical. Whether or not Atlanta retains Al Horford on a long-term deal, it'll still have at least one All-Star (Paul Millsap) already entrenched up front. And however the Hawks resolve their logjam at point guard, between Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder, one of the two will be on the roster come fall.
Should Bazemore depart, though, Atlanta wouldn't have quite the same quality to fill his spot. (If Thabo Sefolosha and Tim Hardaway Jr. could be magically mashed into one, the Hawks might not have reason to fret.)
Not that they should anyway, as long as they're willing to meet Bazemore's asking price.
"I would love to return here," Bazemore said, per Hawks reporter KL Chouinard. "The past two years I've taken a tremendous leap, not only professionally but personally – just growing more and more into myself and just figuring out life – so this place will hold a special place in my heart."
Mario Chalmers, Point Guard (Unrestricted)
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Per CBS Sports, Mario Chalmers noted that he's "two weeks ahead of schedule" in recovery from the Achilles tear that ended his 2015-16 season.
Prior to that unfortunate turn, Chalmers had been busy lighting up the league for the Memphis Grizzlies. He scored in double figures 12 times over his final 14 games, including a 17-point outing to propel the ground-up Grizzlies to a 106-103 win over James' Cavaliers.
There's no telling when, exactly, Chalmers will be back from his injury, let alone what kind of shape he'll be in when he does.
But if 'Rio's rehab results check out and there's a team out there with the roster and cap space to sign him, his scoring skill and championship experience could come at tremendous value.
Allen Crabbe, Shooting Guard/Small Forward (Restricted)
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If not for C.J. McCollum's Most Improved Player campaign, Allen Crabbe might've been the breakout player of the Portland Trail Blazers' surprising season.
The 24-year-old Cal product more than tripled his previous career high in scoring—from 3.3 points per game in 2014-15 to 10.3 last season—in just under double the minutes (13.4 to 26.0) while posting personal-best field-goal (.459) and free-throw percentages (.867).
Crabbe was even hotter in the playoffs, nailing 52.1 percent of his field-goal attempts and 42.9 percent of his threes through the first two rounds. His growth leaves the Blazers' front office with a tough series of questions to answer come July 1.
Do they match any and all offer sheets for their restricted free agent? Are they comfortable paying beaucoup bucks for a sixth man? If and when that payday comes, do they consider sliding Crabbe into the starting lineup, alongside McCollum and Damian Lillard?
The fact that this is a consideration at all speaks to the leaps and bounds Crabbe has made in his game since he came into the league as a second-round pick in 2013.
Jared Dudley, Small Forward/Power Forward (Unrestricted)
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If you've got a young, talented NBA team and you need a savvy veteran in your locker room, chances are, you've at least considered signing Jared Dudley. Once a model three-and-D wing for the Phoenix Suns, the San Diego native has found new life as a small-ball 4 who can elevate the youth around him.
In the 2014-15 season, he helped Jason Kidd transform the Milwaukee Bucks from the worst team in the league to a playoff combatant. Last year, he was one of only three Washington Wizards to play at least 80 games. Though they missed the postseason, Dudley acquitted himself well by shooting 42.0 percent from three, the second-best mark of his career.
At 30, and with his spotty health history (he had back surgery last offseason), Dudley probably isn't the best bet for a team seeking serious minutes as a stretch power forward. But for a squad that already has plenty of potent prospects in place—like, say, the Minnesota Timberwolves—he could be the perfect pickup both on and off the floor.
That is, if the team in question is willing to meet his (relatively) modest asking price.
Evan Fournier, Shooting Guard (Restricted)
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It's a wonder Evan Fournier has gotten to the point where he could soon be pulling in upwards of $10 million per season.
No, not because of some lack of physical gifts. At 6'7" and 205 pounds, he's set on that front. No, not because of an inability to shoot. He's knocked down 38.9 percent of his career threes, including 40.0 percent last season.
What's impressive, rather, is how Fournier has flourished despite playing for five coaches in just four seasons.
"It's awful," Fournier said, per the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins. "To have to start over and over again and have to reestablish yourself again, it's not fun at all. It's not fun at all. But that's the league, man. That's the NBA. That's how it is."
Wherever Fournier winds up this summer, he'll have to learn the tendencies and preferences of a sixth head coach. Should he stick with the Orlando Magic, the 23-year-old Frenchman would fall under the umbrella of Frank Vogel, who could help mold him, already a capable offensive player, into a more competent defender.
David Lee, Power Forward (Unrestricted)
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Kevin Love's fall from grace in this year's NBA Finals should feel unsettlingly familiar to David Lee. Like Love, Lee was a multi-time All-Star and bona fide double-double machine before he succumbed to the greatness of these Golden State Warriors.
Love's exposure came opposite the Dubs, though. For Lee, it was an inside job. In 2014, an early-season injury opened the door for Draymond Green to start at power forward.
Green's been on a rocket ride like few other in basketball history since then. Lee, on the other hand, was stuck on the bench for Golden State in 2014-15 and the Boston Celtics this past season before finding his way to the Dallas Mavericks following a buyout.
The 11-year veteran was vital to Dallas' postseason push. With Zaza Pachulia struggling and the rest of the Mavericks' frontcourt short on reinforcements, Lee stepped in to average 8.5 points on 63.6 percent shooting with 7.0 rebounds in just 17.3 minutes across 25 games.
"We wouldn’t have got to the playoffs without David Lee, and the word spreads," head coach Rick Carlisle told Mavs.com's Earl K. Sneed. "You know, veterans like him know other veterans, and the word gets out that Dallas is a high-level organization. And we take great pride in that."
Lee, then, could be a key contributor in Dallas both on and off the floor. If he stays, Lee spends the summer luring other fish to the Mavericks, who've swung and missed on some high-profile free agents—chief among them, Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan—in recent years.
Either way, Lee's time in Big D will have been well worth it. He got another opportunity to flash a set of skills that should help him score another solid deal, even at age 33.
Jeremy Lin, Point Guard (Player Option)
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If you think Jeremy Lin's going to settle for being a backup point guard, think again. During a recent trip to Taiwan, Lin said that his free-agent decision will depend, among other things, on "whether I am a starter and how much playing time I get," per Focus Taiwan's Christie Chen and Lee Yu-cheng.
At the very least, the Harvard grad should expect a significant raise from his $2.1 million salary in 2015-16. His 11.7 points and 3.0 assists per game as Kemba Walker's understudy marked him as one of the league's premier second-string floor generals.
Barring a positional shift, Lin won't find the kind of role he pines for by staying in North Carolina. His best bet may be to head west, where a potent double reunion awaits.
A return to the Houston Rockets, with whom Lin spent two seasons, would put the 27-year-old back under the auspices of Mike D'Antoni, who unwittingly unleashed "Linsanity" on the New York Knicks in 2012. As Chris Baldwin wrote for PaperCity:
"D’Antoni needs a true point guard to run his offense, and he’s talking like he knows it. Beverley cannot make D’Antoni’s innovative offense run. Lin can. Lin’s Poor Man’s Version of Steve Nash could lead the league in assists. If D’Antoni gets Harden to embrace truly sharing the ball — and some of the spotlight.
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That's a big "if," along with the hypothetical of if Lin wants to play alongside Harden again. Beating out a vicious competitor like Patrick Beverley for the starting gig could be a tall order, too.
But being an underdog is nothing new for Lin. Just don't expect him to settle for that.
Ian Mahinmi, Center (Unrestricted)
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ESPN's Zach Lowe was a major proponent of Ian Mahinmi throughout the 2015-16 season.
"The Pacers' rude exiling of Roy Hibbert had a flip side: They telegraphed as early as April that Mahinmi would be the starter in a small-ball lineup, and he spent all summer working to become a more well-rounded offensive player" Lowe noted back in December. "It has paid off."
It certainly will pay off this summer too. Eight years after his NBA debut, Mahinmi got to flash his full arsenal as a starter for the Indiana Pacers. He scored (9.3 points per game), rebounded (7.1 boards per game) and assisted (1.5 helpers per game) more than he ever had in his career while shooting 58.9 percent from the field and holding foes under 50 percent around the rim—all for a playoff team, no less.
That doesn't mean Mahinmi is guaranteed to start next season. Heck, if he returns to Indianapolis and the Pacers upgrade at power forward, Mahinmi might find himself behind Myles Turner on the depth chart.
But after a playoff season during which the likes of Steven Adams, Tristan Thompson and Bismack Biyombo have filled the usual yeoman's work of old-school centers, Mahinmi should find no shortage of suitors ready, willing and able to shovel some serious cash his way in July.
Donatas Motiejunas, Power Forward (Restricted)
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Talent has never been a problem for Donatas Motiejunas. Few 7-footers in today's NBA can shoot with range and post up as well as he can.
Health, on the other hand, has always been an issue for the lanky Lithuanian. This past season, he played in a career-low 37 games for the Houston Rockets and was part of a deadline deal the Detroit Pistons ultimately nixed on account of his back issues.
Motiejunas contended that he got "screwed" by the Pistons and that they used his injury history as "a pretense to call off the trade." Per BasketNews.it, as translated on Reddit:
"The Pistons had access to my full medical history, so they shouldn’t have done what they did to me. They decreased my value. The medical examination I ‘failed’ was a joke. The Pistons will have some explaining to do why they did not want the trade anymore.
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Motiejunas can point fingers however and wherever he pleases, but that won't change many hearts and minds around the league. Those teams interested in his services need only notice that he played in 23 of the Rockets' final 24 regular-season games and all five of their playoff outings to see that he's worth a look.
And if the Pistons depressed Motiejunas' market as much as he contends they did, his next employer could snag him at a bargain-bin price, as long as his restricted free agency doesn't escalate too quickly.
Miles Plumlee, Center (Restricted)
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According to NBA.com, the eldest of the three Plumlee brothers, Miles, scored 1.44 points per play while shooting 76.5 percent from the field as a pick-and-roll finisher, placing him in the 98th percentile among his peers this past season.
Last year, he was good enough to etch himself into the Milwaukee Bucks' record books—or would've been had he played and shot enough to qualify. His field-goal percentage (60.1 percent) would be the highest in Bucks history, ahead of those posted by Hall of Famers Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1971 (57.7 percent) and Bob Lanier in 1984 (57.2 percent).
Plumlee's shooting range is limited, though he did hit three of six shots between 10 and 16 feet last season. While not the most imposing rim protector around, he posted a better defensive field-goal percentage at the rim than Jonas Valanciunas, Andre Drummond and Tristan Thompson, among others, per NBA.com.
Plumlee may not have the skills to start consistently like those handsomely paid peers of his, but as an athletic backup big, he could be one of best bargains in free agency come July.
Leandro Barbosa, Shooting Guard (Unrestricted)
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Every time Leandro Barbosa darts around a defender, spins through the lane or launches a long bomb, just remember this guy is 33 years old and three years removed from an ACL tear.
Since that setback, the Brazilian Blur has come back with a vengeance.
Last year, he emerged as a key reserve for the Golden State Warriors during their run to the title. This year, he further cemented his spot in Steve Kerr's rotation, with three double-digit scoring games in the NBA Finals to boot.
Barbosa's secret? Special horse medicine extracted from a plant found in Brazil.
“It burns going down,” Barbosa said, per the New York Times's Scott Cacciola. “You kind of feel dizzy if you’re not used to it. I got used to it.”
The Dubs shouldn't get too used to having Barbosa on their bench. With all of the expenses coming due—Harrison Barnes' restricted free agency this summer, Stephen Curry's unrestricted foray next year—Golden State might not be able to afford the Brazilian long-term.
If that's the case, teams with legitimate title aspirations should start lining up around the block to bring in a reborn Barbosa, horse medicine and all.
Mirza Teletovic, Power Forward (Unrestricted)
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Perhaps no member of the Phoenix Suns benefited more from Jeff Hornacek's firing and Earl Watson's subsequent rise than Mirza Teletovic.
Before the move, the Bosnian big man averaged 9.7 points per game, with 23 double-digit scoring games out of 49 total. Afterward, he went on to post 16.3 points a night, with 26 double-figure outings and nine of 20 or more in 30 games.
“Coach Earl (Watson) put a lot of trust in me," Teletovic said, per Arizona Sports' Craig Grialou. "He kind of gave me the energy, gave me the boost. He talked to me through the whole period that he’s been here: how we’re supposed to play, how we’re supposed to get better. I understood the role that I have on this team.”
This doesn't mean Teletovic will be in Phoenix to fill that role. After draining 181 threes—an NBA record for a reserve—he is sure to field plenty of interest on the market this summer.
His size (6'9") and shooting ability figure to overshadow some concerns surrounding his age (30) and a bout with blood clots during the 2014-15 season.
Dion Waiters, Shooting Guard (Restricted)
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Talented but inconsistent, often fiery but occasionally flippant, with confidence bordering on cockiness, Waiters came of age during OKC's run to within an inch of the NBA Finals. As the Oklahoman's Berry Tramel noted, Waiters' shot selection, often suspect through his first four pro seasons, has improved dramatically since he joined the Thunder via trade in January 2015:
"Two seasons ago, 29.2 percent of Waiters’ shots were long 2-pointers, at least 16 feet away. This season, Waiters reduced that figure to 22.9 percent. Waiters replaced many of his beloved stepback jumpers with more efficient 3-pointers – 34.1 percent of Waiters’ shots were 3-pointers. His career high had been 26 percent. Waiters was even better at shot selection in the playoffs, where 42.4 percent of his shots were 3-pointers and only 14.4 percent were long 2-pointers.
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When Waiters is taking (and making) good shots and digging in on defense, he can and often does change the game for his team. He scored in double figures three times to help OKC eliminate the Dallas Mavericks during Round 1. He also tallied 17 points in Game 4 against the San Antonio Spurs to turn the tide in that series and 10 points or more in each of the Thunder's three Western Conference Finals wins.
On the flip side, Waiters' production is still difficult to predict and perilous to pin down. He scored a total of eight points over the three games OKC relinquished to the Golden State Warriors.
That maddening inconsistency, coupled with occasional brilliance, makes him a smarter bet as a skilled role player than a potential star. For all of his faults, Waiters, a 24-year-old restricted free agent, would be a worthwhile investment for the Thunder as they look to retain not only Kevin Durant, but also the maturing supporting cast around him.
As Waiters told the Oklahoman's Erik Horne:
"“Yeah. I would like to stay. Of course. Like I said before, I've never been connected to a group of guys like this in my four years in the NBA. I didn't have this much fun. Just being around them guys, it don't even have nothing to do with basketball, just the brotherhood we have in the locker room, on the road, just that connectedness that we have within each other."
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Marvin Williams, Small Forward/Power Forward (Unrestricted)
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You could call Marvin Williams a "bust" if you want. The shoe still fits, seeing as how he was drafted ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005.
But if you're a team eying a versatile forward who can shoot and defend, you'd be better off just calling his agent.
Williams settled in nicely as the Charlotte Hornets' main stretch 4 last season. He averaged 11.7 points while notching career-highs in rebounds (6.4) and three-point percentage (40.2 percent).
Those skills alone should net him a nifty new contract this summer. His pleasant disposition can't hurt, either. Fellow Hornet Jeremy Lin had high praise for Williams during a recent chat on Reddit:
"We call him Marv. He will be tied with Jared Jeffries for the best teammate I have ever had. He's the most genuinely nice and polite person ever, seriously. He says "sir" a lot when talking to us, he always asks us about our families and takes care of everyone. He gives his per diem (which adds up to a lot of money) to Twin [Aaron Harrison] just out of generosity. In my opinion, Marv is the voice of our team and our glue guy. He also anchors our D.
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Sounds like Marv might be the perfect candidate to cash in next month.
