Every Top 25 Team's Must-Win Game of 2016 College Football Season
Spend enough time around college football coaches and you’ll become well-versed in cliches. Football coaches, by nature, are cautious, paranoid, close-to-the-vest creatures, and some speak entirely in platitudes, afraid to mention anything of value to reporters. One of these kind of coaches’ favorite cliches is “the most important game is the next game.”
Sure, it sounds fine, but here’s the thing: It’s not true. The gimme game against an FCS foe does not mean the same as the conference opener. SEC teams often schedule “paycheck” games in late November. Are you going to argue those games are as meaningful as Alabama-Auburn or Florida-Florida State the following week? Of course not.
Some games are just more important, the kind of games fans circle on the schedule the moment it comes out. They’re must-win games, contests that can shape, make or break a season. They’re the games that truly matter. Here’s a look at every Top 25 team’s “must-win” game for the 2016 season. Games were selected for their overall importance to a team’s momentum or overall success this fall. The Top 25 is compiled by Bleacher Report using the latest available preseason polls.
25. Miami
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Mark Richt enters 2016 with a groundswell of goodwill in South Florida. The area native and former Miami quarterback was happy to land with the Hurricanes after parting ways with Georgia, and the ‘Canes were equally pleased to land him. Miami had fallen into a bit of a malaise under former coach Al Golden, and the lingering effects of NCAA sanctions didn’t help.
Now, the hometown boy is expected to bring Miami to ACC glory; the Hurricanes have yet to make the league title game through 11 full seasons as a member. However, an immediate turnaround might be too much to ask.
That said, a strong start is crucial to bring fans back into the fold. Home games against Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic are very winnable, but a Sept. 17 road trip to Appalachian State is one of the nation’s oddest road games of the season.
The Mountaineers are an up-and-coming program and return a solid core from 2015’s 11-2 team. It’s a game Brad Kaaya and Co. should win and one they need to win, given a stretch against Georgia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina that follows to begin the ACC schedule. It’s a very necessary win to keep Richt on fans’ good side.
24. UCLA
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UCLA and coach Jim Mora Jr. have some work ahead in 2016. Following a pair of 10-win seasons, the Bruins slipped to 8-5 in 2015. While budding star quarterback Josh Rosen returns, Mora must replace leading rusher Paul Perkins and leading receiver Jordan Payton, two key offensive pieces.
The schedule isn’t easy, either. UCLA opens with a trip to Texas A&M and former offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone, travels to BYU on Sept. 17 and hosts defending Pac-12 champ Stanford on Sept. 24. However, as always, one game looms above all in Westwood.
The UCLA-Southern California rivalry is one of college football’s most intense, with control of Los Angeles bragging rights on the line. A year ago, the Trojans snapped a three-game losing streak to UCLA with a decisive 40-21 win, but they have won six of the last nine against the Bruins.
There’s an excellent chance that the game will have Pac-12 South title implications as well. It’s a game Mora and his team can’t afford to lose, for a variety of reasons.
23. Oklahoma State
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A year ago, Oklahoma State took the nation by surprise, starting 10-0 and positioning itself for a run at the College Football Playoff. The Cowboys slipped at the end, finishing 0-3, including routs to Oklahoma and Ole Miss, to end the year.
But with 10 offensive starters returning, led by junior quarterback Mason Rudolph, they won’t sneak up on anyone this year. The schedule isn’t nearly as back-loaded in 2016. Pitt comes calling for a potentially tough nonconference game Sept. 17, but the real test will be the following week at Baylor. No matter if Seth Russell or Jarrett Stidham is at quarterback, the Bears should have a highly potent offense this fall.
Oklahoma State’s hopes of a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff run could be over before they really begin unless the Cowboys can find a way to outscore Baylor in Waco.
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22. North Carolina
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North Carolina had a very impressive 2015 season. The Tar Heels shook off an opening-game loss to South Carolina to win 11 consecutive games, win the ACC Coastal Division title and finish the season 11-3. The challenge? Doing it again without dual-threat quarterback Marquise Williams, who accounted for 4,020 yards of total offense and 37 total touchdowns.
Lead tailback Elijah Hood and multitalented receiver Ryan Switzer will take some pressure off new starter Mitch Trubisky, but the transition could still have some bumps. A Georgia Dome opener against Georgia will be tough, and so will an Oct. 1 trip to Florida State. But the real barometer of success will be a return to the ACC title game. Doing so will be impossible without winning at Miami on Oct. 15. After Tallahassee, it’s the toughest road game left on UNC’s schedule, and Mark Richt will be ready to make an impression. It’s a must-win for Larry Fedora’s bunch.
21. Oregon
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Oregon was up and down in its first season without Marcus Mariota last fall. The Ducks began the season 3-3 and ran off a six-game win streak to end the year but blew a 31-0 halftime lead to TCU in the Alamo Bowl, leading to defensive coordinator Don Pellum’s demotion (he was replaced by former Michigan coach Brady Hoke).
The Ducks also hope to find some consistency at quarterback. FCS transfer Dakota Prukop and Travis Jonsen are battling to replace Vernon Adams, but either one is a capable fit in Mark Helfrich’s fast-paced system. After a four-loss 2015, nothing short of a Pac-12 North title would be acceptable in Eugene. To do so, Oregon must go through Stanford, which has won three of the last four league titles.
The Cardinal visit Nov. 12 for a crucial game that could decide the division title. Anything less than a win over Stanford will be very disappointing.
20. Georgia
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Kirby Smart is a very accomplished defensive coordinator who has proven himself as one of the nation’s top assistant coaches. He’d be a strong hire for any program needing a head coach, but here’s the truth: Smart only wound up at his alma mater in Athens because Mark Richt wasn’t getting the job done. Despite a 145-51 record and two SEC titles in 15 seasons at Georgia, Bulldog fans ran out of patience with Richt after he missed the SEC title game three consecutive seasons in a down SEC East.
So Smart will be expected to change that paradigm, and quickly, or he probably won’t last long in Athens. The Bulldogs add one of the nation’s top overall recruits in quarterback Jacob Eason and should regain the services of powerful back Nick Chubb, who is recovering from torn knee ligaments.
Winning the SEC East is what really matters, and Smart’s SEC home opener will be crucial toward that end. Expected East favorite Tennessee comes calling Oct. 1. After a tough road game at Ole Miss on Sept. 24, the Bulldogs could be behind the eightball without a win over the Volunteers. It’ll be a big game regardless.
19. Louisville
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Bobby Petrino is in a difficult spot in Louisville. As he enters the third season of his second Cardinals tenure, the much-traveled head coach has his program on solid ground following consecutive 8-5 seasons. The Cards return 17 starters, including emerging star quarterback Lamar Jackson, who rolled up 453 yards of total offense on Texas A&M in the Music City Bowl.
The rub? Louisville is in the ACC Atlantic Division with a pair of national powers in Clemson and Florida State, both of whom should begin the season in the preseason Top 10. Louisville will have an early opportunity to measure itself against both, facing the Seminoles and Tigers within the first five games.
The biggest opportunity? Florida State visits on Sept. 17 for the ACC home opener. Two years ago, the Cardinals pushed Jameis Winston and the Seminoles hard before falling. To have any shot at winning the Atlantic, they’ll need to finish the job this time around.
18. Washington
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Even though Washington is coming off just a 7-6 season, the excitement in the Pacific Northwest is palpable. The Huskies return 15 starters, led by quarterback Jake Browning (2,955 yards, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) and tailback Myles Gaskin (1,302 rushing yards, 14 scores), as well as the core of a defense that allowed 18.8 points per game last fall.
Washington is one of the nation’s biggest sleeper teams, and a nonconference slate of Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State will afford a quick start. The Pac-12 opener at Arizona will be big, but even bigger will be the league home opener against Stanford set for Sept. 30.
A year ago, the Cardinal showed the Huskies that they weren’t ready to compete in the Pac-12 North, dealing them a 31-14 defeat. Beating Stanford this time around would show that Chris Petersen’s team is for real. It’s a must-do for a breakout season.
17. Iowa
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2015 was a magical autumn in Iowa City. Kirk Ferentz entered the season on the hot seat following an ugly 7-6 season and ended it as the toast of the Hawkeye State. The Hawks completed the first 12-0 regular season in program history, winning the Big Ten West, and even though an 0-2 finish left a sour taste in some mouths, it couldn’t erase it entirely.
With 14 starters returning, led by senior quarterback C.J. Beathard and senior cornerback Desmond King, the returning Jim Thorpe Award winner as the nation’s top defensive back, Iowa has a chance to make noise again on a national level. The schedule is favorable, too.
A Big Ten West title would be the standard for Iowa in 2016, and both key rivals, Nebraska and Wisconsin, come to Kinnick Stadium. Iowa could easily be 7-0 entering the Badgers’ Oct. 22 visit. The teams played a hard-fought game last fall in Madison, with the Hawkeyes covering a key Wisconsin fumble inside the Iowa 10-yard line to escape with a 10-6 victory.
Defeating the Badgers is an absolute must if Iowa hopes to make another strong run in the Big Ten and beyond in 2016.
16. Southern California
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Southern California is one of the most intriguing teams of 2016. The Trojans are coming off an 8-6 record and Pac-12 South title, but finally have some much-needed stability with new full-time coach, Clay Helton, and a talented roster led by do-everything cornerback Adoree’ Jackson and flashy wideout JuJu Schuster-Smith.
Helton must settle on a quarterback between junior Max Browne and freshman Sam Darnold and hope a rebuilt defensive line comes along quickly, but the Trojans could take a leap forward this fall. They’ll have to overcome a challenging schedule, starting with a neutral-site opener against defending national champion Alabama in Arlington, Texas.
A Sept. 17 trip to Stanford will also be tough. It’s entirely possible the Trojans will be 1-2 entering a Sept. 23 road game at Utah. Lose that game, and a division title or more will be an uphill climb. Helton’s group must beat the Utes or 2016 could be an opportunity lost.
15. TCU
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TCU has proven that it belongs in the Big 12. Over the past two seasons, Gary Patterson’s embrace of the Air Raid offense paid big dividends. With prolific quarterback Trevone Boykin at the controls, the Horned Frogs excelled, going 23-3 in two seasons and just missing the 2014 College Football Playoff.
But with Boykin graduated and receiver Josh Doctson (79 receptions, 1,327 yards and 14 touchdowns) off to the NFL as a first-round pick, there will be a sense of reloading. Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill and Foster Sawyer are battling to replace Boykin, and a number of young receivers led by KaVontae Turpin will be counted upon heavily.
In the top-heavy Big 12, there’s little room for error. TCU could be 4-0 entering an Oct. 1 home date with Oklahoma, which looms as absolutely crucial. A year ago, the Frogs pushed the eventual Big 12 champs to the wire before falling 30-29. Anything less than a victory will make hopes of a league title and more very tough.
14. Michigan State
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If you don’t think Mark Dantonio is a great coach, you haven’t been paying attention. Dantonio has molded Michigan State into one of the nation’s premier programs, and the Spartans had a special season in 2015, winning the Big Ten title, making the College Football Playoff and finishing 12-2. A senior-laden roster provided plenty of leadership, but with a group led by steady quarterback Connor Cook gone, MSU returns only nine starters this fall.
Quarterback Tyler O’Connor and tailback LJ Scott will be expected to take much bigger roles this fall. O’Connor is already used to the pressure. He completed 10 of 16 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown and led a 17-14 win at Ohio State last fall with Cook watching from the sidelines with a shoulder injury.
A Sept. 17 visit to Notre Dame will be a big test, but the biggest game on the schedule will come on Oct. 29 when Michigan comes to Spartan Stadium. Jim Harbaugh’s presence has only ratcheted up the rivalry, as did 2015’s wild final-play blocked punt return for a touchdown, sealing a crazy 27-23 Michigan State win.
If the Spartans have any hope of another division title, beating the Wolverines is the only way. Oh, and the associated bragging rights won’t hurt, either.
13. Ole Miss
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Miss, sometimes you just have a team’s number. It’s starting to look that way for Ole Miss with Alabama. Alabama has a pair of SEC titles, a pair of College Football Playoff appearances and a national title in the past two years, but the Crimson Tide have an ugly 0-2 record against the Rebels.
Hugh Freeze’s group enjoyed a great 10-3 season in 2015, capped with a Sugar Bowl rout of Oklahoma State. The Rebels return only eight starters and must replace three NFL first-round picks, but do retain starting quarterback Chad Kelly, one of the nation’s most dynamic dual-threat passers.
If Ole Miss has any hopes of going from SEC West contender to national threat, beating Alabama for a third consecutive season is a must. The Tide visit Oxford on Sept. 17 for a nationally televised CBS game. Vaught-Hemingway Stadium will be wild, and it’ll be a huge opportunity for a reloading team.
12. Houston
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It is difficult, if not impossible, for a Group of Five team to break through and crash the College Football Playoff party. But you’d better believe Houston is going to try this fall. Coming off an amazing 13-1 season in Tom Herman’s debut, the Cougars return 12 starters, led by dynamic quarterback Greg Ward Jr., who can do damage with his legs and his arm equally well.
Houston has the schedule to make the CFP selection committee sit up and take notice. But it won’t matter unless the Cougars take care of business in the opener against Oklahoma. The defending Big 12 champs come to NRG Stadium for a massive opening-week tilt on Sept. 3. Unless Ward and the Cougs defeat OU, the playoff hype will be over almost before it begins.
11. Baylor
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Baylor was rocked by an independent report that concluded the football staff, led by coach Art Briles, failed to respond properly to allegations and reports of sexual assault and dating violence. Briles was suspended with intent to fire, chancellor Ken Starr was stripped of his power and athletic director Ian McCaw resigned. Into the breach stepped Jim Grobe, named as acting head coach. He has a mess to clean up, but he also has a very talented roster this fall.
With either Seth Russell or Jarrett Stidham (who combined for 41 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2015) running the offense, Baylor should be a factor in the Big 12 race. The first two months of the schedule are favorable, with a Sept. 24 date against Oklahoma State the biggest potential speed bump. The season kicks into high gear on Nov. 5 when the Bears host rival TCU.
Two years ago, Baylor rallied for a stunning 61-58 win, but fell 28-21 in a rain-soaked double-overtime game last fall. The game will have a big impact on the league standings, and it’s one that the Bears can’t afford to lose.
10. Stanford
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In the Pac-12 North, Oregon has the market cornered on style, with its flashy offense and constantly changing uniforms. But when it comes to substance, Stanford is the gold standard. The Cardinal’s strong running game and excellent defense set the pace in the league, with league titles in three of the past four seasons.
2015 was just more of the same. The Cardinal boasted the nation’s top all-purpose runner and Heisman Trophy runner-up in Christian McCaffrey and went 12-2 with a Rose Bowl rout of Iowa. The 2016 schedule isn’t easy, and David Shaw must identify a replacement for steady quarterback Kevin Hogan.
A September stretch against Southern California, UCLA and Washington will be tough, but the defining game could be a Nov. 12 trip to Oregon. Control of the Pac-12 North—and a trip to the league title game—will likely be on the line in Eugene. This could determine just how successful 2016 truly can be for Stanford.
9. Tennessee
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Butch Jones has steadily brought Tennessee back to relevance in the SEC East. Over the past three seasons, the Volunteers have improved from five to seven to nine wins, and with 17 starters returning they appear poised for another leap forward in 2016.
Of course, the Vols need to prove they can win the big game to be taken seriously. In other words, they need to beat Florida. The Gators own an 11-game win streak in the heated rivalry, with Tennessee’s last win coming in 2004. The last two defeats were particularly tough. Following a 10-9 loss in 2014, Tennessee appeared ready to break the streak last fall with a 27-14 fourth-quarter lead. But Florida rallied to take the lead on Antonio Callaway’s stunning 63-yard score with 1:26 left, and the Vols’ last-ditch field goal sailed wide.
To break through and win the SEC East, Tennessee must vanquish Florida. The next opportunity will come Sept. 24 in Knoxville.
8. Notre Dame
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Notre Dame had a good season in 2015. The Fighting Irish won 10 games, made a New Year’s Six game in the Fiesta Bowl and made their fans happy. But it could have been so much better. Both regular-season losses came by a combined four points (24-22 at Clemson and 38-36 at Stanford). Turn those results around and there’s an excellent chance the season ends in the College Football Playoff.
Brian Kelly has some holes to fill and returns only 10 starters from a year ago. He also must decide between DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire at quarterback, but chances are that quandary will be settled by Oct. 15 when the Cardinal comes to South Bend.
The teams have met as Top 25 foes in each of the past five seasons, and each of the last four games have been decided by a touchdown or less. If Notre Dame hopes to make a run at a playoff bid, it’ll have to figure out a way to slow down Heisman Trophy runner-up Christian McCaffrey. It’s as close to a must-win as one can imagine in 2016.
7. Ohio State
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Urban Meyer has certainly set a high standard for himself in Columbus. In four seasons under his watch, Ohio State is 50-4 with a national title and College Football Playoff appearance. This fall will be his biggest challenge yet. The Buckeyes lost 12 draftees (including nine underclassmen) to the NFL, and return just eight starters.
The schedule is not forgiving, either. Sept. 17 features a tough trip to returning playoff team Oklahoma, and mid-October road trips to Wisconsin and Penn State will also be difficult. But the season’s success will be measured by a November to remember.
The Buckeyes visit Michigan State on Nov. 19, and finish the regular season by hosting Michigan at Ohio Stadium. Michigan-Ohio State is one of college football’s hottest rivalries, and Jim Harbaugh’s arrival in Ann Arbor has only fanned the flames. As USA Today's Paul Myerberg notes, New Jersey has become a battleground for the rivalry, with Ohio State holding a satellite camp with Rutgers (and former Meyer defensive coordinator Chris Ash) while Michigan held one alongside Maryland (and former Michigan coordinator D.J. Durkin).
“I commend Coach Harbaugh,” Ash said. “He’s doing a great job of getting his brand and Michigan’s brand out there around the nation and promoting the game of football. And what’s he done is forced a lot of coaches to think outside the box.”
Expect Michigan-Ohio State to decide the Big Ten East title and potentially more. Ohio State has won five consecutive games against the Wolverines, and anything other than extending the streak to six will be viewed as a failure in Ohio.
6. LSU
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It might be easy to say that Les Miles needs to succeed against Alabama for LSU fans to be satisfied. That’s true, after all. A year ago, the Tigers were riding high entering a SEC West showdown with the Crimson Tide, 7-0 and No. 2 nationally. Alabama held star tailback Leonard Fournette completely in check and rolled to a 30-16 win.
But the season really went off the rails the following week, when the Tigers ran into Arkansas. The Razorbacks rolled LSU 31-14 and sent Miles’ bunch into a tailspin, nearly costing him his job. A year earlier, LSU also wasn’t ready for the Hogs after a tough 20-13 overtime loss to Alabama, turning in a 17-0 no-show defeat.
In two years, Arkansas and Bret Bielema have outscored Miles and the Tigers 48-14. This year, for the third consecutive season, the Hogs follow Alabama on the schedule, with Nov. 12’s trip to Fayetteville coming right in the wake of what will be a huge Nov. 5 game against the Tide in Baton Rouge.
Beating Alabama is crucial. But for LSU, figuring out Arkansas’ hold over its program might be even more important.
5. Oklahoma
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For the Big 12, image is everything. Two years ago, TCU and Baylor both finished with one loss each, but both were snubbed from the College Football Playoff, due, in part, to soft nonconference schedules. Last fall, Oklahoma lost to Texas but managed to make the playoff with a schedule bolstered by an overtime comeback win at Tennessee.
With quarterback Baker Mayfield leading a potent offense, Oklahoma hopes to repeat the feat in 2016. A crucial part of that plan? Its pre-Big 12 schedule. The Sooners open the season with a tough trip to Houston, but face an even bigger test when a young but talented Ohio State visits for one of the marquee nonconference games of 2016 on Sept. 17.
To make its case for another playoff trip, Oklahoma will have to make a strong run through the Big 12, but first it must prove it’s ready by holding off J.T. Barrett and the Buckeyes.
4. Michigan
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Jim Harbaugh has brought Michigan football back to prominence more quickly than most could have expected. The Wolverines looked uninspired in Brady Hoke’s final season, slogging to a 5-7 record. But with the energetic, frenetic, self-promoting Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, Michigan looked like a new team, finishing 10-3 and routing Florida in the Florida Citrus Bowl.
Expectations are even higher for 2016 despite the departure of quarterback Jake Rudock, a steadying force in 2016. To make the move from good to great, though, Michigan will have to beat its rivals. The Wolverines lost a stunner on a final-play blocked punt to Michigan State, but they were thoroughly outclassed in a 42-13 loss to Ohio State.
With Harbaugh and Urban Meyer on opposing sidelines, the rivalry has the feel of another Ten-Year War, the faceoff that took place when Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes overlapped at Michigan and OSU, with Michigan winning a series of intense games 5-4-1.
Ohio State has won five consecutive games against Michigan, and Wolverine fans won’t stand for a sixth. Breaking through against the Buckeyes is a must.
3. Florida State
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Florida State-Miami was once one of the nation’s best rivalries. In the 1980s and 1990s, it was an intense matchup for the heart of Florida, filled with thrilling last-second finishes (including a number of key missed Florida State field goals).
But as Jimbo Fisher has brought the Seminoles back to the elite level they enjoyed in Bobby Bowden’s prime, they’ve left the Hurricanes behind. FSU has won nine of the teams’ last 11 meetings, turning the tables after Miami won six consecutive meetings.
However, with Mark Richt in town, Miami hopes to reverse its fortunes. The ‘Canes have been competitive with FSU, losing the last two meetings by a combined eight points. Florida State has another exceptional roster. The Seminoles return 17 starters, including all 11 on offense, led by big-play tailback Dalvin Cook. An Oct. 29 game against Clemson should decide the ACC Atlantic, but FSU won’t have any wiggle room. The Seminoles can’t afford to go into that game with an ACC loss.
Miami will be hungry to change its luck against FSU on Oct. 8. It’s a game Florida State can’t afford to lose.
2. Clemson
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This fall, Clemson hopes to break down the door to its first national title since 1981. The Tigers came oh-so-close last fall, beginning the season 14-0 before dropping a hard-fought 45-40 decision to Alabama in the national title game. With Heisman Trophy third-place finisher Deshaun Watson among nine offensive starters returning, there’s reason to be excited.
The biggest hurdle toward a College Football Playoff berth? As always, it’s Florida State. The Tigers and Seminoles have established themselves as the class of the ACC, and their annual meeting (set for Oct. 29 in Tallahassee) is always crucial.
Since 2009, the winner of Clemson-Florida State has represented the Atlantic in the ACC title game, and Clemson and FSU have combined to win the last five ACC titles. If the Tigers want to do bigger things in 2016, they must defeat the Seminoles.
1. Alabama
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Alabama’s road to a fifth national title under Nick Saban will be anything but easy. The Crimson Tide open with a high-profile neutral-site game against Southern California in Arlington, Texas, and travel to Oxford to face off with Ole Miss, which owns a two-game win streak against Alabama, on Sept. 17. October brings a three-game stretch, including road games at Arkansas and Tennessee, followed by a home date with Texas A&M.
But, as always, the most pivotal game on the schedule will be a Nov. 5 trip to LSU. The SEC West rivals play similar styles with bruising running games and hard-hitting defenses, and their meeting always seems to matter.
It would be a surprise if both teams aren’t in the Top 10 (if not Top 5) again this year when the Tide travel to Baton Rouge. Leonard Fournette will likely be angry after being held to 31 rushing yards a year ago in a game that derailed his Heisman Trophy hopes and LSU’s College Football Playoff hopes.
Without beating LSU, it’s hard to see how the Tide will challenge for another national title. It’s a must-win game, without question.
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