NBA Free Agents 2016: Best Bargain Buys on the Market
With the NBA's salary cap gearing up for an unprecedented explosion, great bargains will be tough to find.
League-wide spending is set to increase by more than $20 million, per USA Today's Jeff Zillgitt. Players will see dollar signs in their sleep. Agents will try to broker monstrous deals, using a subsequent salary-cap climb in 2016-17 as the impetus.
This summer is going to be ridiculous—ridiculously expensive. But there will still be quality talent to sign on the "cheap," which, in this case, is a relative term. These names may still get raises under the new cap, but they will not be considered expensive by any means.
They won't necessarily be underpaid, either. Rather, they're just non-stars who belong in NBA rotations and stand the best chance of matching or exceeding their pay grade without breaking the bank.
D.J. Augustin
1 of 10
Incumbent Team: Denver Nuggets
Age at Start of 2016-17: 28
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.5 points, 1.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.1 blocks, 42.3% FG
2015-16 Salary: $3,000,000
D.J. Augustin has always straddled the NBA's bargain-bin line. His instant offense and comfort with playing off the ball haven't yet resulted in a steady role, in large part because, at 6'0", he's often overmatched defensively at the league's deepest position.
Since 2012-13 alone, the eight-year veteran has suited up for six different teams. But Augustin's most recent landing spot, the Denver Nuggets, helped him showcase the full extent of his offensive value, as both a primary playmaker and spot-up shooter.
As Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post wrote:
"He had some trouble with teams doubling him off the screen and creating turnovers, but overall Augustin ranked just outside the NBA's top 10 percent in passes out of traps that resulted in scores. The Nuggets averaged a robust 1.429 points per possession when Augustin was trapped.
Augustin was in pick-and-roll situations as the ball-handler 48.9 percent of the time, by far his most utilized play. Transition circumstances were next (14 percent), followed by spot-up shots (13.4).
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Augustin's 41.1 percent clip from downtown significantly aided a Nuggets offense that ranked in the bottom five of three-point efficiency. And he fits as a long-term complement to cornerstone-in-the-making Emmanuel Mudiay. Augustin put down more than 45 percent of his triples off the catch this past season.
Denver, of course, must get in line to keep its second-unit firecracker. Cap space will be available in excess across the NBA, and most offenses will kill for a backup point man with range and the ability to finish plays on the move. More than 100 players eclipsed 200 drives for the 2015-16 campaign. Only two of them scored on at least 49 percent of those attacks while posting an assist rate of 13.5 or better. Chris Paul was one; Augustin was the other.
That puts Augustin in line for a steep raise. But even if his yearly salary doubles—or triples—there's a strong chance he once again outperforms his market value.
Jared Dudley
2 of 10
Incumbent Team: Washington Wizards
Age at Start of 2016-17: 31
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 7.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, 47.8% FG
2015-16 Salary: $4,375,000
Jared Dudley is the official winner of the NBA's Most Understatedly Amazing Season of the Year* award for 2015-16.
Almost 95 percent of his playing time for the Washington Wizards came at power forward, with another 5 percent coming at center. Though the team ranked as a collective mess on offense in general, that's by no means a reflection of Dudley. The Wizards statistically improved on both ends of the floor with him in the game.
Opponents shot just over 32 percent when challenging him from beyond the three-point line. Conversely, he swished 42 percent of his own treys. Nearly half of his shot attempts, in fact, came as catch-and-fire threes. He is used to trailing plays without the ball and doesn't bog down the offense with his own scoring agendas. Better still, the soon-to-be 31-year-old has already perfected his sales pitch.
"I'm career 40 percent from three buddy!" he tweeted at a naysayer. "And every team I've ever played on would want me back."
Dudley isn't wrong, though he's technically shooting 39.9 percent from distance...
Small-ball 4s who defend and nail the three are the NBA dream. And while Dudley will capitalize on a strong 2015-16 showing, it's unlikely that, at his age, he'll command more than an additional couple million per year. So any team that locks him up a few miles within this ballpark will leave negotiations a happy camper.
*This award does not actually exist
Raymond Felton
3 of 10
Incumbent Team: Dallas Mavericks
Age at Start of 2016-17: 32
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 9.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.2 blocks, 40.6% FG
2015-16 Salary: $3,950,313
Confession: If you had told me at the beginning of the regular season that I would be writing about Raymond Felton as a free-agent bargain, there's an 83.1 percent chance I would have suffocated from incurable laughter.
Alas, here we are, pegging the aging, oft-ridiculed floor general as a bargain buy, and being dead serious about it.
None of Felton's numbers jump off the page. If they do, it's for the wrong reasons. Like his 40.6 percent shooting from the field. Or his 28.2 percent clip from downtown. And yet, despite all that, he ended 2015-16 playing like the Dallas Mavericks' best, and healthiest, point guard.
Felton recorded the best net rating among Dallas' four primary ball-handlers, a rotation that included J.J. Barea, Devin Harris and Deron Williams. He shot better than 50 percent on drives during the regular season, collapsing defenses with ease and emerging as the lead playmaker in head coach Rick Carlisle's dual-point guard lineups.
Those five-man units became a Mavericks favorite by year's end, largely thanks to Felton's attack mode. Dallas' most-used combination of Wesley Matthews, Dirk Nowitzki, Chandler Parsons, Zaza Pachulia and Williams actually proved more effective when Parsons subbed out for the 6'1" point:
| 419 | 42.9 | 36.3 | 100.8 | 101.1 | -0.3 | |
| 272 | 46.5 | 42.0 | 115.2 | 100.6 | 14.6 |
Contributing to some of the Mavericks' most potent lineups won't net Felton an obscene contract. But in a market thin on talented point guards, he's sure to garner interest as a frequently used backup or spot starter whose price tag won't give way to buyer's remorse.
Eric Gordon
4 of 10
Incumbent Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Age at Start of 2016-17: 27
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 15.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks, 41.8% FG
2015-16 Salary: $15,514,031
At July's inception, Eric Gordon will finally be free—rescued from the expectations of his top-seven draft status, the pressure of headlining the return in the Chris Paul trade and the weight of a four-year, $58 million contract he didn't deserve.
What he becomes after (presumably) leaving the New Orleans Pelicans is anyone's guess. But the offseason market won't view him as a star or high-end flier worth overpaying. Injuries have ruined any chance of that happening. Gordon missed 173 of a possible 394 regular-season contests in New Orleans—or almost 44 percent of his entire tenure.
Still, Gordon has thrived as a specialized scorer over the last three seasons. He hasn't shot under 38 percent from deep since 2012-13, and the Pelicans gradually transitioned him into an off-ball role that will help him seamlessly assimilate into another system:
When you look at Gordon as a complementary player, his career arc isn't that bad. It's his salary more than anything that's a turnoff. But with his price tag set to plummet, he has the opportunity to experience life from the other side of the spectrum—as a productive bargain.
Maurice Harkless
5 of 10
Incumbent Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Age at Start of 2016-17: 23
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.4 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 47.4% FG
2015-16 Salary: $2,894,059
Maurice Harkless' free-agent stock could admittedly go either way. Some team might throw him a massive offer sheet in hopes of forcing the Portland Trail Blazers into a difficult decision. Or he may sit around idly, fielding few to no offers, waiting for Portland to finish its outside shopping before putting pen to paper on a new deal.
And that's what makes Harkless so interesting.
He already has four seasons to his name, despite only turning 23 in May. He is a disaster from beyond the arc and shooting under 40 percent outside 10 feet of the basket for his career.
But, at 6'9", he can defend either forward position, and he mitigates his lack of range with incisive drives and cuts. About half of his looks came inside three feet during the regular season, where he shot 66 percent.
Defensive versatility alone should get Harkless paid. He isn't yet a one-on-one stopper, but he's a great team defender. He gets over and switches on screens well, jumps passing lanes without sacrificing position and uses his length to provide last-ditch rim protection and gobble up loose balls.
Consider the last three non-centers to match Harkless' 2015-16 rebound (10.4), steal (1.7) and block (1.9) percentages while logging at least 1,400 minutes before their 23rd birthdays: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Al-Farouq Aminu and Kawhi Leonard.
Harkless' broken jumper puts him in the company of a pre-2015 Aminu, and his next deal will reflect as much. In this summer's cap climate, someone with his ceiling, even if it's ultimately lower than peak Aminu's, could end up being a steal for under $10 million annually.
Solomon Hill
6 of 10
Incumbent Team: Indiana Pacers
Age at Start of 2016-17: 25
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 4.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks, 44.7% FG
2015-16 Salary: $1,358,880
Solomon Hill's playoff performance left a lasting impact. One general manager even believes he'll get between $7 and $9 million per year in his next contract, according to ESPN.com's Ian Begley.
Is that an overreaction to a seven-game postseason sample? Maybe.
But Hill's postseason showing was also that good. He limited the Toronto Raptors to 35.5 percent shooting and knocked down close to 58 percent of his three-pointers. He also posted Indiana's third-best net rating for the series, behind only George Hill and Paul George. The Pacers outscored the Raptors by 8.7 points per 100 possessions with him in the lineup.
Hill's production was similarly intriguing throughout the regular season. His three-point success rate hovered just above 32 percent, but he averaged 10.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 steals per 36 minutes while posting an effective field-goal percentage (combined measurement of two-point and three-point efficiency) north of 50. Just four other players reached those benchmarks: Draymond Green, Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard and Paul Millsap.
If Hill stays this statistical course, not even a $9 million salary will displace him from the offseason bargain bin. And to be absolutely sure, he could earn significantly less.
Most players in his situation—entering free agency for the first time—can have outside offers matched by their current team. But the Pacers declined Hill's fourth-year option back in November, allowing him to reach the open market a full year in advance. They can neither match outside offers nor pay him more than that $2.3 million option was worth, so interested parties needn't worry about overpaying just to price him out of Indiana.
He's already gone.
Wesley Johnson
7 of 10
Incumbent Team: Los Angeles Clippers
Age at Start of 2016-17: 29
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted (player option)
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.7 blocks, 40.4% FG
2015-16 Salary: $1,100,602
Wesley Johnson is due for a steep raise after earning less than $3 million combined over the last three seasons. But he still isn't a player for whom teams will break open piggy banks and deplete rainy-day funds.
Blame his unpredictable three-point stroke. Combo forwards need a reliable outside touch to make it big in today's league, and Johnson's career three-point splits read like a statistical roller coaster:
| 3.7 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | |
| 35.6 | 31.4 | 32.3 | 36.9 | 35.1 | 33.3 |
It doesn't bode well for Johnson's market that his three-point efficiency and volume have already peaked. Though he dropped in 38.7 percent of his spot-up threes last year, that number plunged to 33.1 this season. But he will exceed the value of his next contract so long as his shooting doesn't implode any further.
He is that useful on the defensive end.
There still aren't many players who can dance between the 2, 3 and 4 slots, and he saved more points on the defensive side in 2015-16 than any Los Angeles Clippers wing since 2013-14, according to NBAMath.com. Then there's this: Paul Millsap and Johnson are the lone non-centers to wrap 2015-16 with a steal percentage of 2.7 and block percentage of 2.6.
In the end, Johnson will get paid like a defensive specialist. But he's really more of an underrated cog around which teams can devise entire perimeter packages.
Boban Marjanovic
8 of 10
Incumbent Team: San Antonio Spurs
Age at Start of 2016-17: 28
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.4 blocks, 60.3% FG
2015-16 Salary: $1,200,000
Deep breaths, San Antonio Spurs fans. Boban Marjanovic doesn't want to go anywhere.
Sources told pro basketball reporter David Pick that they "believe" the 7'3" big man will re-sign with San Antonio. Fortunately for the Spurs, it shouldn't cost them too much to keep him, either. As Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express-News explained:
"He is a restricted free agent, meaning the Spurs retain the right to match any offer he receives, and a provision in the collective bargaining agreement limits the amount he can earn next season to $5.6 million.
Competing teams could choose to structure an offer sheet for Marjanovic with a salary spike in the third year. The Spurs would then have to decide whether to swallow that so-called "poison pill" and match.
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This makes Marjanovic a bargain by default. When you take into account the average salary over three years, knowing the Serbian superhero won't clog the books for the first two seasons, there isn't an unreasonable scenario that springs to mind with the cap rising so far (and fast).
Everything hinges on Marjanovic making the jump from garbage-time novelty to everyday contributor. He barely has 500 minutes of NBA action to his resume, and the league is gravitating away from lumbering bigs who don't chuck threes. The risk is real.
But Marjanovic is deceptively quick for a 290-pound skyscraper. Plus, his 57.1 percent clip between 16 feet and the three-point arc suggests he could space the floor enough to function within a contemporary offense—assuming he can maintain that pace when shooting more than four percent of his shots from that range. He also now joins Shaquille O'Neal as the only two qualified rookies to clear 20 points, 13 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per 36 minutes. That's too ridiculous to mean nothing.
Dwight Powell
9 of 10
Incumbent Team: Dallas Mavericks
Age at Start of 2016-17: 25
Free-Agency Type: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.3 blocks, 49.3% FG
2015-16 Salary: $845,059
Dwight Powell is cut from the same cloth as Maurice Harkless: He will end up being a bargain because his success is contingent upon polishing skills he doesn't have yet.
The Dallas Mavericks experimented with Powell as sort of a quasi-stretch big between the power forward and center positions as a sophomore, and more than one-third of his looks came beyond 16 feet from the hoop. But he converted fewer than 30 percent of those opportunities.
That's the bad news.
Here's the good/tantalizing: Powell already has plenty of defensive value. Opponents shot under 50 percent against him at the rim in 2015-16, and he's quick enough to defend playmaking bigs who launch threes. Rival shooters drained just 25 percent of their long-distance attempts with him as their primary defender.
Seven other players logged as many minutes as Powell (992) while sustaining his rebound (15.1), assist (7.2), steal (1.8) and block (2.0) percentages. All of them are everyday rotation fixtures: Trevor Booker, DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis, Gorgui Dieng, Nikola Jokic, Ian Mahinmi and Paul Millsap.
That's enough potential, unrealized or otherwise, to land Powell a multiyear deal. It will be a modest agreement given his experience (fewer than 1,300 career minutes) and nonexistent jumper. But that'll just make it easier for him to outperform its value before long.
Lance Thomas
10 of 10
Incumbent Team: New York Knicks
Age at Start of 2016-17: 28
Free-Agency Type: Unrestricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 44.2% FG
2015-16 Salary: $1,636,842
Lance Thomas should have the makings of a low-key breakout player about to get multi-syllable paid after his 2015-16 crusade—key word here being should.
He shot better than 40 percent from three-point land. The New York Knicks often threw him on the opposition's best perimeter scorer—assignments he held to sub-32 percent shooting from behind the arc. Thomas even posted the best net rating of any teammate to appear in at least 20 games.
All of which is good, perhaps great. Thomas is finally resembling a high-end three-and-D assassin who can make plays on both ends of the hardwood for a really good basketball team.
Only, red flags abound.
Thomas missed more than one-quarter of the season, including the final 18 games, with left knee issues (and one concussion). This year was also the first in which he attempted more than 21 three-pointers. There are no assurances his much-improved clip is sustainable.
This isn't to say Thomas' 2015-16 showcase should be painted as a sham. It could be a turning point in his career. But the abruptness of this leap will drive down his value; teams must account for the uncertainty of his rise.
Thus, should 2015-16 be a harbinger of what's to come, Thomas will have no trouble putting his new contract to shame.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
