Do Cleveland Cavaliers Have a Prayer Without Kevin Love in Game 3?
If the Cleveland Cavaliers are to hold home court against the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, they'll need to do it without Kevin Love.
After suffering a concussion midway through Cleveland's Game 2 loss, Love has officially been ruled out of Wednesday night's tilt, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein. There is no guarantee he'll be ready for Friday's Game 4, either:
This news comes as quite a blow to the Cavaliers. Love is shooting just 37.5 percent from the floor for the Finals, including a disastrous 27.3 percent inside eight feet, but you never want one of your three best players out of the lineup.
Besides, for all the talk that Love is hurting the Cavaliers on both ends of the floor, they've been worse without him on the court through Games 1 and 2:
| With Kevin Love | 58 | 94.5 | 114.1 | -16 |
| Without Kevin Love | 38 | 72.4 | 116.7 | -32 |
To repeat: Losing Love is not a good thing for Cleveland. But it's an opportunity for head coach Tyronn Lue to experiment with lineups that rework the Cavaliers' entire approach.
Love, after all, has looked out of place against the Warriors all season. He is averaging 8.8 points per game while shooting 23.5 percent from long range through his four regular-season and playoff matchups with them, according to B/R Insights. In the 89 contests he has played against all other teams, his scoring average has nearly doubled (16.4 points), and he's putting down 37.9 percent of his triples, per B/R Insights.
These NBA Finals have merely exacerbated the issues Golden State poses for Love, as The Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks wrote:
"Even before he left in the third quarter of Game 2 with concussion-like symptoms, Kevin Love didn't look like he belonged. The Cavs' trap-heavy defensive scheme had him showing 25-plus feet from the basket on the pick-and-roll, and he wasn't nearly fast enough to recover back to the Warriors shooters spread out along the 3-point line. On offense, he couldn't take advantage of his size to punish the Warriors' smaller defenders, memorably struggling to score over the top of Steph Curry — who is some seven inches and 60 pounds his minor — on one inglorious play.
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Most metrics paint Kyrie Irving, not Love, as Cleveland's biggest defensive liability. Golden State is shooting only 37.5 percent overall and 12.5 percent from three-point range when challenging Love, compared to 70 and 57.1 percent, respectively, against Irving.
But the Warriors' uncanny ability to create mismatches off screens thrusts the Cavaliers into awkward situations, forcing help for Love at the expense of abandoned assignments elsewhere.
Though the Cavs don't have anyone on the roster, aside from LeBron James, who can seamlessly switch from bigs to wings on defense, swapping out Love with someone else stands to beef up their collective rim protection.
Channing Frye or Richard Jefferson loom as the most likely Love replacements. Both have already prepped for this occasion, per AmicoHoops.Net's Sam Amico:
Giving more minutes to the 35-year-old Jefferson would allow James to vacillate between the 3 and 4 spots, a luxury he doesn't have alongside Love. But the Cavaliers' four other starters haven't played well in the short time Jefferson has subbed in for Love during the playoffs, scoring just 72.7 points per 100 possessions.
Using Frye as Love's primary stand-in is a more intriguing option. He hasn't even played 12 total minutes against Golden State but ranks as a better rim protector and is still dropping in 56.5 percent of his triples for the playoffs.
Plus, in the 14 postseason minutes Frye has spent with Cleveland's non-Love starters, the Cavaliers have deployed a far more balanced attack:
| With Frye | 14 | 111.4 | 93.7 | 17.7 |
| With Love | 317 | 120.7 | 102.4 | 18.3 |
Sure, there is no comparing the sample size. And yes, the Cavaliers offense has, up until now, been better with Love. But their defensive rating improves dramatically with Frye, and that's the bigger concern—especially with Cleveland's offense mustering a terrible 85.9 points per 100 possessions against the Warriors' switch-heavy prevention.
There is hope that the Cavaliers' defensive performance with Frye can be at least somewhat sustainable over the long haul versus Golden State. His added length alone is something he can use to survive on switches and the perimeter in general.
Without Love, Lue is also free to experiment with some unconventional five-man groups that wouldn't otherwise see much spin.
If depending on Frye isn't working, Lue can try slotting James at the 5, as he did for a short while in Game 2, to combat Golden State's smaller assemblies. The Cavaliers' super-small unit didn't set the world afire, but it's worth another look in Game 3 and beyond—particularly without Irving.
That's another thing with Love out: Lue can take exceptional measures without benching two of his stars. Now, if the defense gets out of control, he can sit Irving and field lineups that do a better job of keeping the Warriors' shooting in check.
This is not to say Irving won't be part of the game plan. He has to be. Lue knows that.
"We need Kyrie to be aggressive," he said, per the Akron Beacon Journal's Marla Ridenour. "He's a scorer; he's a special player. He has the best handle in the NBA, so he's able to play iso basketball. But he's got to make quick decisions."
Still, Irving is shooting 33.3 percent for the series (14.3 percent from deep) and often disrupts Cleveland's ball movement, so alternatives must be considered if he doesn't get going early in Game 3. He, like Love, cannot help if he isn't scoring efficiently.
The Cavaliers' entire offense is at a permanent disadvantage anyway, regardless of available personnel, since the Warriors don't need to collapse on James' and Irving's drives.
Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston and Klay Thompson allow them to thrive with one-on-one coverage and lightning-quick rotations. Those kick-outs to spot-up shooters that proved so effective for Cleveland through the Eastern Conference playoffs have vanished. It's on the Cavs defense to slow down the pace and displace Golden State from its comfort zone.
Playing without Love is enough license for the Cavaliers to begin this shift in identity. They can now see if Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert, in addition to Frye, give them a better chance of impeding a Warriors offense they have yet to stop—even if it comes at the expense of Irving's playing time.
After dropping the first two tilts by a combined 48 points, the largest opening deficit in NBA Finals history, establishing new defensive footing is the Cavaliers' best chance of stealing Game 3 without Love.
It's the only shot they have of competing with the Warriors, period.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com, unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
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