2016 NBA Draft: Teams Under the Most Pressure to Hit Big
Why do NBA teams pour so many of their resources into the draft? Why do they spend so much time, money and effort scouting players around the world, poking and prodding them at the combine and private workouts, and deliberating whom to choose?
Because the science of draft selection is at once anything but exact and yet critical to the long-term health of an organization. How a front office fares in late June can swing the fate of a franchise.
Just look at the Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. The league's model franchises have all risen to the top of the standings by way of shrewd moves on draft day. Or, conversely, look at the Sacramento Kings and Philadelphia 76ers, for whom the draft has been mostly bust in recent years.
For every team, there's pressure to turn picks into diamonds. For these seven clubs—ranked in ascending order according to which most needs to succeed at the 2016 draft, based on the immediacy of the opportunity to improve and the degree of that potential improvement—June 23 could be the day that everything changed, for better or worse.
7. Denver Nuggets
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2016 Draft Picks: 7, 15, 19, 53, 56
The Denver Nuggets are already well on their way to and through a promising rebuild. Over the last two years, general manager Tim Connelly has supplemented a solid core of veterans (Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, Jameer Nelson, Will Barton) with a slew of young talent, including skilled international bigs (Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, Joffrey Lauvergne) and athletic guards (Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris).
Left to their own devices and head coach Michael Malone's intense tutelage, these players could congeal into a Western Conference postseason combatant within the next two to three years. Connelly, though, will have a unique opportunity to turbocharge his team's present and future with a stockpile of draft picks. As NBA.com's David Aldridge suggested:
"With the No. 7, 15 and 19 picks in the first round, Denver could certainly make a big push to move up with any combination of those picks if there's a top-five talent to be had. With $38 million already committed next season to Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler, the Nuggets don't have as much cap flexibility as Boston, but they do have some -- enough to try and make a July splash.
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Or perhaps Connelly could combine those picks and a player or two into a package to flip for an established star. At worst, he'll come away with three solid prospects—five, if you include picks Nos. 53 and 56—with whom to extend Denver's youth movement.
But after three straight trips to the lottery, on the heels of a decade spent in the postseason, the Nuggets won't be comfortable counting chickens while they wait for all their eggs to hatch.
6. Sacramento Kings
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2016 Draft Picks: 8, 59
There's a whole lot of "new" around the Sacramento Kings these days: a new arena (the Golden 1 Center), a new head coach (Dave Joerger) and a new-ish front office, with Ken Catanella coming from the Detroit Pistons to serve as Vlade Divac's right-hand man.
But can all that new wash away the old junk that turned the Kings into the NBA's most dysfunctional franchise?
How Sacramento spends its lottery pick in this year's draft will have a lot to say about the competency of Divac's front office. With Rajon Rondo ticketed for free agency and Darren Collison dealing with a domestic violence charge, the Kings would be wise to find a young point guard for their core group. Depending on how the draft plays out, they may be within striking distance, be that Kentucky's Jamal Murray, Providence's Kris Dunn or Vanderbilt's Wade Baldwin IV.
Whether Divac can be trusted to make the smart choice is another story. Last year, he passed on Emmanuel Mudiay, who refused to work out for the Kings, and took Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein, who essentially plays the same position as franchise star DeMarcus Cousins, with the No. 6 pick.
Should Sacramento misread its needs this summer and extend its playoff drought to an 11th year, the team could be forced to brace for the worst of all possible worlds: It'll have to trade Cousins before his contract expires in 2018.
5. Phoenix Suns
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2016 Draft Picks: 4, 13, 28, 34
The Phoenix Suns don't own the longest playoff drought of any team in the lottery, but they've been on the outside looking in for a franchise-worst six straight seasons. They do own the most picks in that coveted range, after spinning a disgruntled Markieff Morris into the Washington Wizards' slot at No. 13.
That may only sharpen the microscope currently trained on Suns general manager Ryan McDonough. The team's wunderkind executive followed up a surprising debut campaign during 2013-14, when the Suns won 48 games, with a series of head-scratching moves (and non-moves).
In 2014, he held on to all three of Phoenix's first-round picks and subsequently signed Isaiah Thomas to a squad that already had Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe in its backcourt. For 2015, he compounded his problems by deadline-dealing Dragic and Thomas—the latter of which he admitted was "a mistake" on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM—and swinging in free agency for LaMarcus Aldridge, only to wind up with an aging Tyson Chandler blocking Alex Len's path to playing time.
But out of the ashes of a disastrous, injury-riddled 23-59 campaign in 2015-16 rose new reasons for hope: a healthy season from Len, a breakout from rookie guard Devin Booker and a three-point barrage by Mirza Teletovic. As McDonough told the Arizona Republic's Paul Coro:
"That’s one of our silver linings, that a guy like Devin Booker got a lot more minutes than we thought he would and played extremely well. Alex Len hadn’t really worked a lot on post-ups prior to this year. With injuries to top scorers and lack of scoring options, we went to him a lot in the post. He did OK with it.
He had some really good games. He had some other games where he struggled. That experience and repetition will help him be comfortable going forward and help his learning curve. I do like how we’re positioned but we do need to make some changes and upgrade the roster.
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If McDonough can parlay his team's picks into a sturdy wing and a skilled power forward to complement the backcourt hydra of Booker, Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, he could find himself off the hook as the Suns streak back toward respectability.
4. Boston Celtics
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2016 Draft Picks: 3, 16, 23, 31, 35, 45, 51, 58
There may be no more aggressive executive in the NBA than Danny Ainge. Since robbing the Brooklyn Nets of their future in 2013, the Boston Celtics general manager has continued to stockpile assets while scouring the league for his franchise's next superstar.
On the former front, Ainge has been wildly successful. This year alone, he owns three of the top 23 picks in the 2016 draft, including the No. 3 overall choice, to go along with five second-rounders. Next year, the C's can swap their pick with Brooklyn's and expect three other teams' second-rounders in their coffers. During 2018, the Nets will hand their first-rounder to Boston outright. The Memphis Grizzlies might do the same the following year if they land outside the top eight.
This is all to say nothing of all the young players on cheap contracts who populate Boston's roster.
So far, though, Ainge has struck out in every attempt to land that missing piece. According to ESPN's Zach Lowe, then writing for Grantland, he offered four first-round picks to the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for the ninth spot in the 2015 draft, only to be rebuffed by Michael Jordan. Since then, he's been hot after established stars (i.e., Jimmy Butler) and rising ones (i.e., Jahlil Okafor) alike, according to the Boston Herald, via the Chicago Tribune and CBS Sports, respectively.
Per NBA.com's David Aldridge, the league will be waiting for Ainge to do the same this summer, especially considering his nearly decade-long track record:
"A lot of teams expect that Ainge will attempt to re-create the Ray Allen trade of 2007, when the Celtics sent the fifth overall pick (Jeff Green), guard Delonte West and forward Wally Szczerbiak to the Sonics (sniff) for Allen and Glen Davis. And while the Celtics have been tied to the likes of Jimmy Butler or DeMarcus Cousins in potential trade talks, many believe Ainge's dream target will be the Los Angeles Clippers' Blake Griffin.
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Prying any of those All-Stars away from their respective squads will be a herculean task. But if Ainge is going to make a splash on the trade market, now is the time to do it. He'll never have more blue-chip draft picks than this very moment.
To push past their 48 wins in 2015-16 and morph into an Eastern Conference powerhouse, the Celtics will need another star to partner with Isaiah Thomas. Free agency has never been Boston's forte, but if Ainge can pull off a blockbuster deal by the end of the draft, he may yet have the bait he needs to lure another big fish.
3. New Orleans Pelicans
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2016 Draft Picks: 6, 39, 40
The New Orleans Pelicans have devoted tons of resources in recent years to surrounding Anthony Davis with a young, talented supporting cast.
In 2013, general manager Dell Demps pulled off a pair of trades that added Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans to a perimeter that already sported Eric Gordon. The following summer, the Pelicans signed and traded for Omer Asik. January 2015, they snagged Quincy Pondexter from the Memphis Grizzlies.
What do they have to show for their efforts? One playoff appearance in four seasons with Davis and, now, the No. 6 pick in the 2016 draft.
The future of the franchise could be riding on this pick. So, too, could Demps' job.
New Orleans desperately needs an infusion of young talent. Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Norris Cole are all bound for unrestricted free agency. Persistent injuries have rendered Holiday and Evans unreliable from week to week. Asik is nearly unplayable, a hulking relic from basketball's past.
The Pelicans' lottery choice could bring help in all shapes and sizes, from an athletic and skilled big (Washington's Marquese Chriss, Utah's Jakob Poeltl) to a defensive-minded wing (Cal's Jaylen Brown) to an explosive combo guard (Providence's Kris Dunn, Kentucky's Jamal Murray, Oklahoma's Buddy Hield).
With some smart picks, including at Nos. 39 and 40, and better health, New Orleans could put together a promising roster that might, at the very least, put Davis' mind at ease after he lost out on an extra $24 million in contract scratch.
2. Philadelphia 76ers
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2016 Draft Picks: 1, 24, 26
The peak of Sam Hinkie's "process" for the Philadelphia 76ers will be left to Bryan Colangelo's sorting out. Determining whom to take with the No. 1 pick might be the least of his concerns.
According to Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding, the Sixers have already targeted LSU's Ben Simmons as their choice, for reasons beyond his potentially generational talent:
"Simmons was born and raised in Australia, where 76ers director of performance research and development David T. Martin was an iconic sports-science leader until leaving the Australian Institute of Sport for Philadelphia in 2015.
Sixers head coach Brett Brown also coached Simmons’ father, Dave, with the Melbourne Tigers. All of that history with Simmons has allayed any concerns over his attitude and inconsistent motor during his one season at LSU.
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For Colangelo, the real challenge will be reorganizing the rest of the roster to better complement a point forward of Simmons' gifts. Philadelphia is flush with bigs—from rookie center Jahlil Okafor to second-year Nerlens Noel to still-untested Joel Embiid—and figures to welcome another when Dario Saric arrives from overseas next season.
Colangelo is already hard at work trying to unclog his team's frontcourt. According to The Vertical's Shams Charania, the Sixers and Atlanta Hawks have discussed a swap involving Noel and All-Star point guard Jeff Teague. Per the Philadelphia Inquirer's Keith Pompey, Okafor is also on the trading block.
Who Colangelo offloads (and how) will set the tone for his front-office regime. If he's able to bring back a bounty for one or more of his bigs and nab potential role players with the late first-round picks at his disposal, the Sixers could have themselves an intriguing group around Simmons, with promising prospects for the future.
1. Los Angeles Lakers
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2016 Draft Picks: 2, 32
With Kobe Bryant gone, the Los Angeles Lakers can (finally) turn their full attention to rebuilding their roster.
And not a moment too soon. If Lakers president Jeanie Buss intends to hold Jim, her brother and the team's head of basketball operations, to the three-year timeline he set for himself back in 2014, the squad will have to squirrel its way into a deep playoff run next spring.
That will be no easy feat for the Purple and Gold, not after the back-to-back-to-back run of franchise-worst seasons they've put together.
The pressure of a quick turnaround could dictate how the Lakers use the No. 2 pick in this year's draft. If L.A. were prudent, it would either keep the selection to add whoever's left between Ben Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram or talk to other teams with multiple picks (Boston? Denver? Phoenix?) about trading down.
But with Jim Buss' self-imposed hourglass running out of sand, he and general manager Mitch Kupchak may be compelled to move L.A.'s choice for a proven commodity. According to The Ringer's Bill Simmons, that could push the Lakers to pursue Indiana Pacers All-Star (and Southern California native) Paul George, among others.
During a recent appearance on AM 570 in L.A., per SB Nation's Harrison Faigen, Kupchak said the Lakers plan to use the pick:
"If we use the pick this year, which is our intention at this time, that we'll get another great player. But between now and the draft, I expect to talk to most GM's in the league, whether I reach out to them just to touch base or whether they reach out to me and inquire about players that are on our roster now or even the pick, there will be a lot of conversations.
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Those chats could be critical to the team's future. If the Lakers find a taker for their selection, they may bring back the sort of player who could not only take over as the team's top dog but also attract another star (or two) via free agency to accelerate the rebuild.
If not, L.A. could do worse than welcome in Simmons or Ingram and follow a more deliberate path back to NBA relevance.
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