Every Power 5 Conference's Sleeper Team for 2016
The favorites have been clearly defined—just look at the top of any super-early rankings or Vegas title odds. These are the college football teams that, collectively, are expected to contend for conference titles and College Football Playoff bids.
But in college football, we've come to expect teams from outside the top tier to fight their ways into the discussion each season. Last year saw the likes of Florida, Iowa and North Carolina come seemingly out of nowhere to win their respective divisions and nearly crash the playoff party.
Who are the sleepers to watch for in 2016? We've picked one from each power conference—teams that with a good run can push the favorites and be this season's unexpected standouts.
ACC: Virginia Tech
1 of 5
2015 record: 7-6
Returning starters: 15
It's been a while since Virginia Tech was a real player in the ACC, having finished no better than fourth in the Coastal Division in the previous four seasons. But first-year head coach Justin Fuente has injected new life into the Hokies, as he brings his success at Memphis to Blacksburg.
Fuente won 19 games in his last two seasons with the Tigers—more wins the program had in the previous six years—and he developed a first-round NFL draft pick in quarterback Paxton Lynch. He might have his next potential pro passer in the form of junior college transfer Jerod Evans, who is battling with senior Brenden Motley for the starting job.
The Hokies are in good shape elsewhere on offense, with running back Travon McMillian coming off a 1,000-yard season as a redshirt freshman and receiver Isaiah Ford putting together the best single-season numbers (75 catches, 1,164 yards, 11 touchdowns) in school history. And their defense should again be strong, most notably because Fuente was able to retain longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster to create consistency on that side of the ball.
From a scheduling standpoint, Virginia Tech benefits from avoiding the big boys from the Atlantic Division in crossover games, as it gets Boston College and Syracuse in the first half of the season. However, it has to play Duke, Pittsburgh and defending Coastal champ North Carolina on the road, while Miami comes to Blacksburg on a short week.
Big Ten: Nebraska
2 of 5
2015 record: 6-7
Returning starters: 14
Nebraska couldn't have gone in a more different direction with its coaching search after the 2014 season than replacing the fiery Bo Pelini with mild-mannered Mike Riley. The longtime Oregon State coach has long been considered one of the nicest guys in college football, but that reputation can only go so far with a program that's used to winning.
His debut season didn't go well, but it did end on a high note, with the Cornhuskers upsetting UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl. With the nucleus of that team back and combined with more of Riley's recruits, the second year could be when this abnormal leadership change produces results.
That's assuming Nebraska can improve on defense, where it was atrocious in 2015. The deficiencies were across the board but most notably against the pass, as it ranked 122nd in FBS.
"Nebraska hasn’t stabilized its defense regularly since joining the Big Ten in 2011," wrote TodaysU.com's Dustin Schutte, who noted the losses of linemen Maliek Collins and Vincent Valentine following their junior year. "There is a need for an accelerated learning curve, though, meaning the newbies will have to adjust quickly along the front lines."
The Huskers are more experienced in the secondary, though, which should help improve the performance as long as the line can follow suit. And Nebraska doesn't need to do much better to have that translate into wins, not when quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., receiver Jordan Westerkamp and running back Terrell Newby are all back. So, too, is dynamic athlete De'Mornay Pierson-El, and if he can return to form after an injury-plagued 2015, it will provide a major boost.
If Nebraska can make waves this season, it will be doing so by winning on the road. Its five league away games are all against 2015 bowl teams, including Iowa, Northwestern, Ohio State and Wisconsin.
Big 12: Texas
3 of 5
2015 record: 5-7
Returning starters: 15
Texas is considered a sleeper only based on its record from a year ago, not because the Longhorns aren't getting any attention. It's the exact opposite, as head coach Charlie Strong's third season in charge has the makings of a make-or-break one.
Coming off back-to-back losing records for the first time since the late 1980s, Texas has shown progress under Strong, but much of it is cosmetic. He's instilled his culture in Austin, which led to numerous players leaving the program early on, and he's produced three top-20 recruiting classes with the 2016 one rising to 11th nationally thanks to a late surge of commitments.
He's also shaken up his coaching staff on multiple occasions, most recently bringing in Sterlin Gilbert as offensive coordinator to further the transition to a spread attack that better aligns with high school football in Texas.
Now it's time for those changes and additions to start impacting the on-field results—beyond an occasional breakout like when quarterback Jerrod Heard had 527 yards of total offense against California or when Chris Warren III erupted for 276 rushing yards against Texas Tech. The more emerging young stars, like linebacker Malik Jefferson as a true freshman, the better.
With Baylor and TCU at home and Oklahoma in the traditional Cotton Bowl setting, the Longhorns have a schedule that's conducive to making a push toward the top of the Big 12 standings.
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Pac-12: Washington State
4 of 5
2015 record: 9-4
Returning starters: 14
The Pac-12 sent 10 teams to bowl games last season but didn't have an entrant in the College Football Playoff, which is an indication of how deep and even the conference was. The North Division was the stronger side in 2015 and has dominated in terms of winning league titles, with Oregon and Stanford claiming all five crowns.
Those teams figure to again be in the mix, as will a rising Washington team that's generated plenty of buzz after finishing 2015 strong with a young lineup. But Washington State will have a say in how things play out in the North, as they host two of those three schools while sporting the top passing offense in the country.
Quarterback Luke Falk and his long list of receivers—most of whom are back—averaged 389.2 passing yards per game in 2015, which helped the Cougars reach nine wins for the first time since 2003. Their defense wasn't particularly strong, allowing 27.7 points per game, but just being able to make opponents have to work for a while before scoring is like a win because of the quick ability to put points up on their own end.
Head coach Mike Leach's pass-heavy offense is hard to stop even though you know what's coming because Falk is so accurate, as he ranked second in FBS play with a 69.4 percent completion rate.
Winning in Pullman gets harder as the weather worsens, and WSU plays host to Arizona, Oregon, UCLA and Washington this season.
SEC: Arkansas
5 of 5
2015 record: 8-5
Returning starters: 14
How do you find a sleeper amid the best and most-covered conference in FBS? Aside from taking a flier on one of last year's sub-.500 teams (Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina or Vanderbilt), your candidates come from a group that was all ranked at one time in 2015 and was rarely out of the spotlight.
We're going with Arkansas because of the progress head coach Bret Bielema has made the past two seasons and the belief that the rise has only started under his watch. Winless in the SEC in his first season, the Razorbacks went 5-3 in 2015, and those three losses were by a combined 21 points.
This is a critical year in terms of long-term progress, because the Hogs will have a new quarterback and are rebuilding the massive offensive line that has been so key to their rise. They've had to say goodbye to a pair of productive running backs and a big-play tight end, too.
We saw the start of a change in scheme last season, though, with Brandon Allen's passing taking on a bigger role, and younger brother Austin is poised to keep this going.
"It's Year 4 of our program," Bielema told Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee. "I've always felt that Year 5 would be the measuring point. If we can get one a year early, I'd like that as well."
A favorable schedule—one that brings Alabama, Florida, LSU and Ole Miss to Fayetteville—could accelerate Bielema's long-term plan.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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