NBA Draft 2016: Latest Mock Draft, Biggest Boom-or-Bust 1st-Round Prospects
The drama in this year's NBA draft begins with the third pick, as it's widely assumed that LSU's Ben Simmons and Duke's Brandon Ingram are going to be the first two players taken.
This is also a year for the draft in which there's a steep talent drop-off after Simmons and Ingram. It's a volatile class with talent, and there doesn't appear to be a lot of future superstars. That makes for great intrigue, in addition to making teams do a lot more homework than they otherwise might to make sure they get the right players for their systems.
With two days before the draft lottery, here's the latest mock draft and a look at the biggest boom-or-bust players who will hear their names called on June 23.
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | Ben Simmons, PF, LSU |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Brandon Ingram, SF, Duke |
| 3 | Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets) | Jamal Murray, PG, Kentucky |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | Dragan Bender, PF, Croatia |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Henry Ellenson, PF, Marquette |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets (via New York Knicks) | Jaylen Brown, SF, California |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | Denzel Valentine, SF, Michigan State |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors (via Denver Nuggets) | Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Turkey |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Kris Dunn, PG, Providence |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | Deyonta Davis, PF, Michigan State |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns (via Washington Wizards) | Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | Skal Labissiere, C, Kentucky |
| 15 | Denver Nuggets (via Houston Rockets) | Timothe Luwawu, G/F, France |
| 16 | Boston Celtics (via Dallas Mavericks) | Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah |
| 17 | Memphis Grizzlies | Dejounte Murray, G, Washington |
| 18 | Detroit Pistons | Tyler Ulis, PG, Kentucky |
| 19 | Denver Nuggets (via Portland Trail Blazers) | Malachi Richardson, G, Syracuse |
| 20 | Indiana Pacers | Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame |
| 21 | Atlanta Hawks | Ante Zizic, C, Croatia |
| 22 | Charlotte Hornets | Malik Beasley, G, Florida State |
| 23 | Boston Celtics | Diamond Stone, C, Maryland |
| 24 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Miami Heat) | Ben Bentil, F, Providence |
| 25 | Los Angeles Clippers | DeAndre' Bembry, G/F, St. Joseph's |
| 26 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Oklahoma City Thunder) | Josh Hart, G, Villanova |
| 27 | Toronto Raptors | Thon Maker, F, Australia |
| 28 | Phoenix Suns (via Cleveland Cavaliers) | Stephen Zimmerman, C, UNLV |
| 29 | San Antonio Spurs | Isaiah Whitehead, G, Seton Hall |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Brice Johnson, PF, North Carolina |
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
It's hard to believe there was a time during the NCAA tournament when some were discussing Buddy Hield as the No. 1 overall pick.
Former NBA center Mychal Thompson told Josh Peter of USA Today in March that he saw no reason for Hield not to be in the conversation with Simmons and Ingram.
"I don’t know what else they want this young man to do," Thompson said. "He can do everything you ask of an NBA guard. He moves without the ball like J.J. Redick. He shoots like he’s a member of the Golden State Warriors. He can create his own shot. He’s got a high basketball IQ. He can move his feet defensively."
You can understand why. Hield was playing on national television in front of a wider audience than normal, scoring 36 points against Virginia Commonwealth in the round of 32 and 37 points against No. 1-seeded Oregon to help Oklahoma reach the Final Four.
The Final Four game against Villanova, though, was a disastrous way for Hield's college career to end. He scored nine points on 4-of-12 shooting in 36 minutes.
There are dangerous extremes that come with Hield's performance. He can be an outstanding shooter on any given night, as he was against Oregon, but certain teams figured out how to stop him. The aforementioned Villanova did it, as did West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament when he scored just six points and made one field goal.
Per Peter, Thompson went on to say how Hield "is suffering from bias" that caused Stephen Curry to fall into Golden State's lap with the seventh pick in 2009.
Leave Curry out of any conversation people have about college shooters, as no one thought he would become what he is today. If they did, he would've been in the legendary predraft conversation like LeBron James was in 2003.
Instead, look at what Hield is: a talented shooter with a good work ethic who isn't that impressive on defense and will often settle for contested shots.
The ability to shoot gives Hield a chance to become something more than a valuable role player, but a team will look at his great tournament games and pop him sooner than it should, hoping to turn him into a superstar.
It's not a bad risk in a year without great depth, but the odds of Hield turning into that kind of player aren't high because of how his performance can swing in a hurry.
Thon Maker, Australia
With Thon Maker opting for forgo college and jump straight to the NBA, his future is tied entirely to the potential that teams believe they can get out of a 7-footer.
When Maker's camp put out a mixtape of the Australian sensation two years ago, Stephen Douglas of the Big Lead wrote that he looked like "a cross between Kevin Durant and Kevin Garnett."
There's nothing like starting a teenager so high that he has nowhere to go but down. ESPN's Fran Fraschilla noted in April 2015 that NBA scouts were "not seeing it" with Maker.
Fraschilla, speaking for himself three months after that report, was raving about Maker:
If you already have whiplash with Maker before he sets foot on an NBA floor, it's OK. Just take a breath, and drink some water.
Physically, at this point, Maker is not ready to play in the NBA. ESPN.com lists the 19-year-old at 7'1" and 216 pounds, which might be the literal definition of a stick figure.
Sports Illustrated's Ben Golliver also raised questions about Maker that extend beyond where he is physically right now: "Forget the physical and basketball questions for a second—and there are many—and ponder whether he’s mentally ready to spend the next few years of his life at the end of the bench or in the D-League."
Maker fits into the Hield category of players who have something that teams will love and believe they can work with. In Maker's case, it's going to be his size. He's got good touch on his shot and can play away from the rim—a huge bonus in this era of the NBA.
Per Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders, Maker was one of the most impressive players at the draft combine:
But even with those good measurables, he's going to need so much work, coaching and development beyond just what a typical rookie will that it's probably going to take at least three years before any substantial results show.
Maker may have a brief moment in a highlight video when he looks like Durant, but playing at that level for 82 games every year is hard to do. Size will get him drafted—potentially in the lottery—but it will take a lot of work and desire on his part to become something special.
Stephen Zimmerman, UNLV
Stephen Zimmerman is what Maker would have looked like with one year of college experience, though there's still plenty of room for Zimmerman to grow and become more than just a projected late first-round pick.
There's nothing in Zimmerman's college stat line that immediately jumps out. He averaged 10.5 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, shot 47.7 percent as a center and missed five games late in the year with a sprained knee.
Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical, upon reporting Zimmerman was entering the draft in March, noted league executives said the UNLV star "has the potential to move into the top half of the draft with some strong performances in predraft workouts."
B/R national college basketball writer C.J. Moore wrote in February that Zimmerman's skill set makes him a perfect fit for how the NBA game is played today:
"Zimmerman is a good fit in the league because he's at his best operating as a screener in the pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop, and he has a good enough jump shot to spread the floor. Defensively, he fits the prototype of what most teams are searching for out of their center.
"It's so en vogue, you have to have a rim protector and be able to guard in space and move around and guard three guys in every possession," an NBA scout told Bleacher Report. "Zimmerman can do all of that stuff."
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The overall numbers in college don't paint a complete picture of what Zimmerman is capable of doing. They do show he's not close to being a finished product and will need to find a team that knows how to work with his skills and has the patience to wait for his development.
Teams in the lottery can't afford to take Zimmerman because they need someone who can provide a near-immediate return on their investment. In the back half of the first round, though, a team can wait for him to fall in its lap and reap the reward in two years when all of his skills begin to translate.
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