Atlanta Hawks Must Resist Temptation to Preserve Status Quo
The Atlanta Hawks seem to have reached an insurmountable hurdle in the Eastern Conference.
Swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers two years in a row, it's time for the front office to look in the mirror and evaluate whether that's a satisfying plateau.
Atlanta has enjoyed nine straight playoff appearances, but simply partaking in the festivities has to be getting old by now. The Hawks have made it past the second round just once during this period, never truly establishing themselves as serious title contenders—not even after setting a franchise record with 60 regular-season wins in 2014-15.
The offseason is unlikely to open new doors during the impending cap boom. Atlanta will compete with almost every other team for free-agent signatures, and there won't be much wiggle room if it re-signs its own players.
This year's conclusion and the Hawks' financial situation could make for a natural break, but it will take boldness to give up the comfort of security.
The Al Horford Dilemma
Before the Hawks can address anything else, they must figure out what to do with Al Horford, who is entering unrestricted free agency. Teams will be lining up to pitch him, and the abundance of cap space around the league makes such a coveted player a lock for a max deal.
Horford has spent his entire nine-year career in Atlanta, and while he emphasizes that winning is crucial, emotional ties will undoubtedly play a part in his impending decision.
"There are a lot of things that we need to address," Horford said, according to ESPN's Ohm Youngmisuk. "But the biggest thing for me is I feel good here. I have a great relationship with Coach. That is important to me and my teammates. Atlanta is a city that welcomed me from the first day. ... I like the way the team is going, I feel like we can win here."
The Hawks will have a financial advantage in the sweepstakes as well, as Horford is eligible for a five-year, $145 million contract, according to hawksfanatic of Peachtree Hoops. That's an extra year and approximately $38 million more than other teams can offer.
Horford is undoubtedly one of the most unique and consistent post men in the league. He has seamlessly adjusted to the NBA's infatuation with small ball, evolving as a prototypical modern big with fast feet and shooting range. While there are players who possess similar skills, few are as adept on both ends of the court.
However, there should be underlying concerns, such as the length of the contract. He might not be overly reliant on athleticism, and developing a three-point shot helps bigs age gracefully, but the deal could still look very ugly at its tail end. The thought of paying a 34-year-old Horford $32.5 million should make Atlanta at least a little queasy.
The Hawks already went through a similar situation when they gave a 29-year-old Joe Johnson a six-year, $119 million deal in 2010. Horford is a significantly better player, and no one will cringe if Atlanta maxes him out, but the circumstances are strikingly similar. The front office wasn't bold enough to see through a period of change back then, holding on to mediocrity instead.
Letting him walk would be a bad short-term basketball decision, but there are many factors beyond the present to consider, and another team could sway him if the Hawks ponder too long.
Settle on a Direction
It should be blatantly obvious that the Hawks' current makeup isn't going to contend for a title. In fact, it's questionable whether Atlanta would've gotten past the first round this year, had the Boston Celtics' Avery Bradley not been injured. Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution pointed out the missing element upon elimination:
"But they need help. They need a star. They need a go-to offensive force, somebody who can be counted on the last five minutes of a game, every game.
It’s not Paul Millsap, who too often was absent offensively in this postseason. It’s not Al Horford, who isn’t strong enough physically to be counted on inside, nor a consistent enough shooter outside.
Major change and major improvement is needed. Or the Hawks aren’t going anywhere of significance.
"
Schultz is right, but the sad reality is that major improvement will be hard to find.
Even if Atlanta renounces its free agents and non-guaranteed contracts, it will end up with a $52.4 million salary bill going into the summer, according to HoopsHype. With a projected salary cap of $92 million, that would be plenty of room if Horford and Kent Bazemore were under contract, which they're not.
Assuming a max deal for Horford would start at $25 million and adding a reasonable $12 million annual salary for Bazemore (might seem high, but free agency will be nuts), the Hawks would have practically nothing else to spend. Essentially the same crew that won 48 regular-season games would be back next year, only with the veterans one year older.
The Hawks could try to unload Tiago Splitter's expiring $8.25 million deal to create more breathing room. However, with the average salary set to boom, that would only be sufficient for a serviceable role player, and Atlanta needs a bigger boost than that to launch itself into the championship discussion.
Atlanta could also let Bazemore walk and try its utmost to bring in a player like Nicolas Batum, who would be an excellent fit. The team would have another body to throw at LeBron James and an additional playmaker on the wing. But even then, everything would have to break just right for the team to even sniff the possibility of making the NBA Finals.
There's no clear path here, but the Hawks need a decisive direction and a drastic change, or they'll inevitably be engulfed by quicksand on the big stage once again.
Work on Plan B
From a bystander's perspective, it's easy to point at the facts and call for a full rebuild. In reality, it's a difficult trigger to pull, and even more so when it comes to the Hawks.
Team head coach and president Mike Budenholzer finds himself in the predicament every individual wearing two hats is bound to experience—the coach wants to win, while the front office is obligated to evaluate the big picture. Hitting the reset button becomes a lot harder when internal interests conflict, and his statement following elimination echoed that.
"Losing to Cleveland twice is tough," Budenholzer said, according to Youngmisuk. "But to the fanbase, to people who think [about making major changes], if we want to find a way to beat, whether it be Cleveland or whoever the great teams in the league or our conference are, blowing it up is probably not the way to beat a team like Cleveland."
Ultimately, it's up to Budenholzer. But even if he can't resist the temptation to re-sign Horford and Bazemore and flame out in the second round once again, there has to be a contingency plan in case either (or both) skip town.
Remember that Atlanta reportedly dangled Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver and even Horford ahead of this year's Feb. 18 trade deadline, according to ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz and Brian Windhorst. That suggests blowing it up isn't entirely dismissed by the front office, even if the Hawks were just casually gauging interest.
If Horford leaves, Atlanta would be in an excellent position to pivot for a quick turnaround, even if next season would be tough.
The Hawks have several veterans on cheap and expiring contracts (Teague, Kyle Korver, Thabo Sefolosha). Those players could easily be flipped to contenders for future draft picks. And if Atlanta chooses to stink for a year, it would be silly not to listen to offers for Paul Millsap, whose market value will never be higher.
Outside of Millsap's $21.4 million player option, the Hawks' salary sheet is completely clean in 2017-18. Even if Bazemore is retained—and perhaps he should be, as young, versatile wings are hard to come by—Atlanta could have space to add multiple max contracts in just a year, as long as it settles mostly for placeholders this summer.
Teams will inevitably overspend this offseason, locking in some cringeworthy long-term deals. Why not sit this one out and have a major edge in the sweepstakes a year later? Why not see how Dennis Schroder, who stole crunch-time minutes from Teague in the playoffs, handles the starting point guard duties? Why not take a step back and have a chance to leap forward?
The unknown might be scary, but being mundane is dull and unrewarding.
All salary data is courtesy of HoopsHype, unless otherwise noted.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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