Will New England Patriots Be Active on Trade Market During 2016 Draft?

Asking if New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is going to engage in draft-day trades is a lot like asking if it will snow in the winter in Foxborough, Massachusetts. It's not a question of if, but a matter of when and how much. And when it happens, you can expect it will be in a flurry. 

Belichick has made 54 draft-day trades since arriving on the scene back in 2000, according to Mike Reiss of ESPN. That statistic offers an idea of the Patriots' trade habits in the draft. Reiss adds that in the 16 years before Belichick's arrival, the Patriots were involved in 24 draft-day trades.

That means draft trading has more than doubled since Belichick arrived, and also means that the Patriots engage in an average of roughly 3.4 draft-day trades per year.

But things are different this year. Yes, the Patriots are always moving up and down the board to acquire value through the draft, but the dynamic changes because of two very important factors:

1. The Patriots' lack of a first-round pick in 2016.
2. The Patriots' shortage of overall picks in 2017.

Year	Picks
2000	10
2001	10
2002	6
2003	10
2004	8
2005	7
2006	10
2007	9
2008	7
2009	12
2010	12
2011	9
2012	7
2013	7
2014	9
2015	11

As we speak, the Patriots are owners of 10 picks in the 2016 draft, but just six picks in the 2017 draft. For perspective, the Patriots have made an average of nine picks per year; they have made 10 or more selections in seven of Belichick's 16 previous drafts; and they've only had fewer than seven picks one time under Belichick (2002). 

The Patriots could look at balancing out the number of picks, trading forward a couple of 2016 picks into 2017 in order to have a Round 8 pick both years; or they could trade down to add picks, and trade some of those picks forward so that they end up with more picks overall. 

It's possible, but less likely, that the Patriots would trade up. For starters, their primary needs are in the middle and the bottom of their depth chart, meaning the Patriots are less desperate for a player who can come in and start immediately than they are for a player who can play in a pinch, and who can develop in a part-time role.

Besides, if the Patriots were to trade up into the first round beyond the 29th overall pick, they would forfeit that pick instead of No. 29 as a result of the Deflategate punishment, which removes whichever first-round pick is earliest in the event that they have two. That, in turn, would immediately put the Patriots at a value disadvantage—which is not a place they like to be when drawing up draft trades.

Of course, they could trade up to picks 30-32, assuming the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, or Denver Broncos are open to a trade.

And maybe they could trade ahead of the 29th pick if there's a team with a pick that sits close enough to No. 29 to make the value imbalance negligible. The Kansas City Chiefs are sitting at 28, and are without picks in the third and sixth round due to tampering with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin last offseason.

But again, it makes more sense for them to trade back—or at the very most, make minimal moves forward to make sure they get a player or two they've targeted. The only positions where the Patriots need top-of-the-order players are at wide receiver and running back—the latter of which is arguable, given their trend of platooning in the backfield. 

Other than that, their primary needs are backups: a third cornerback, a third or fourth offensive tackle, a third linebacker and a third or fourth defensive tackle. 

And in the process of trading back in order to fill out the depth chart, the Patriots could also trade ahead to the 2017 draft. That being said, it's entirely possible that the Patriots could ignore the long-term future and take a wait-and-see approach to next year's draft.

They didn't lose any high-profile free agents this offseason, so they're not likely to add any compensatory picks. If they're going to add picks in 2017, it will be via trade; however, they don't have to trade this year's picks into next year. They still have their first-round selection in 2017, so it's also possible that they could trade out of the first round next year to acquire more picks in the mid rounds, similar to their 2009 and 2013 strategies.

When it comes to draft-day trades, few have done it at Belichick's pace, so it's safe to say we'll see more of the same in 2016. The question isn't if, but how much.

Let the snow flurries begin.