College Football's Top 10 Nonconference Trap Games for 2016
As winter turns to spring across America, college football fans can really start focusing on the 2016 season ahead. Spring practice is in full swing, but the most avid fans are thinking about their teams' schedules and analyzing big stretches, tough moments and potential trap games.
Yes, the trap game. Upsets are part of college football’s fabric, and they’re enthralling because they happen when you least expect them. Maybe a team sneaks up on a more powerful team at the beginning of a season, or at its end, or catches it in between some important games on its schedule.
As Admiral Ackbar of Star Wars fame would say, every team must know about trap games and how to avoid them. Here’s a look at the 10 biggest nonconference trap games on the 2016 college football slate. We selected games for their potential to surprise, with factors like Power Five teams visiting "Group of Five" foes, schedule placement and underrated programs being considered in the ranking.
10. Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky
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Despite a 4-8 record, Vanderbilt actually showed significant improvement in head coach Derek Mason’s second season at the helm. The Commodores were more competitive, especially on defense, and lost three games by nine points or less.
One of those losses came to Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers were one of the best Group of Five teams, going 12-2 with a Conference USA title; their only losses came at Indiana and at LSU. However, they must replace 11 starters, including prolific quarterback Brandon Doughty, who threw for 5,055 yards, 48 touchdowns and nine interceptions a year ago.
Vanderbilt returns 16 starters and will travel to the Toppers on Sept. 24. A year ago, Western Kentucky edged Vandy 14-12 in the season opener. Western Kentucky could be favored to win again, but with a good VU defense returning, this could be a trap—for the Hilltoppers.
9. Kansas State at Stanford
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Stanford had an exceptional 2015 season. The Cardinal bounced back from an 8-5 2014 season to win the program’s third Pac-12 title in four seasons and rout Iowa in the Rose Bowl. Tailback Christian McCaffrey led the nation in all-purpose yards and finished second to Alabama's Derrick Henry in Heisman Trophy voting, making McCaffrey a prime candidate for the award in 2016.
However, it is important to note that Stanford dug its way out of an 0-1 hole to begin 2015 following a highly disappointing 16-6 loss at Northwestern. This season, the Cardinal begin the season at home, with a Friday night date against Kansas State.
Head coach Bill Snyder’s team finished 6-7 a year ago but lost to Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU by seven points or less. They return 12 starters, although Snyder must figure out his quarterback situation in the spring, with Joe Hubener, Jesse Ertz, Alex Delton and Skylar Thompson competing to start.
The Wildcats play a hard-nosed, physical brand of football that could match up well against Stanford. This is a game to watch in Week 1.
8. Middle Tennessee at Missouri
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2015 was a disappointing season for Missouri. Following a pair of SEC East titles, the Tigers slipped to 5-7, and longtime head coach Gary Pinkel resigned at season’s end after being diagnosed with cancer. New coach Barry Odom hopes to build on Pinkel’s strong legacy while also improving Mizzou’s immediate on-field product.
With a typically tough SEC schedule on tap, the Tigers must make hay in their nonconference slate—a matter made more difficult by an imposing season-opening trip to West Virginia. Eastern Michigan and FCS foe Delaware State are gimme games, but the fourth nonconference game isn’t so easy.
Middle Tennessee visits Columbia on Oct. 22, and the Blue Raiders could be catching the Tigers at a good time. Mizzou’s first two October games are trips to LSU and Florida, which won’t be easy assignments. Head coach Rick Stockstill’s team is a returning bowl qualifier, and while he must replace 11 starters, Missouri will need to be on upset alert.
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7. Notre Dame at NC State
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Notre Dame’s scheduling arrangement with the ACC has invigorated the Fighting Irish’s nonconference with new matchups rarely seen, which provides renewed interest across the league. Last year, the Irish’s rain-soaked trip to Clemson produced one of the best games of the year, and a visit to Virginia ended in near-disaster until backup quarterback DeShone Kizer and wideout Will Fuller pulled victory out of the fire with a late touchdown hookup.
In many cases, Notre Dame’s trips to ACC campuses are real events (Notre Dame will play four to five ACC schools per year and rotate those with return trips to South Bend). So the Irish’s Oct. 8 visit to NC State will be meaningful, indeed.
The visit comes a week before a huge home date with Stanford, and it’s possible that the Wolfpack, who have made two consecutive bowl trips under head coach Dave Doeren, could catch the Irish flat-footed.
6. BYU at Michigan State
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Since turning to Independent status, BYU has adopted a “anyone, anytime, anywhere” scheduling strategy. That’s the key to staying relevant without conference affiliation, and the Cougars are doing a solid job of it.
This year, they’ll open the season at University of Phoenix Stadium against Arizona, with road games against Utah, Boise State and Cincinnati scheduled. They’ll also welcome UCLA and Mississippi State to Provo. But perhaps their most intriguing road trip is an Oct. 8 game at Michigan State.
The Spartans will host BYU following a three-game stretch that includes road games at Notre Dame and Indiana sandwiched around a home game with Wisconsin. The returning College Football Playoff qualifiers will once again be one of the nation’s best teams, but MSU needs to replace graduated star quarterback Connor Cook. Could the Cougars catch the Spartans by surprise? Perhaps.
5. Louisiana Tech at Arkansas
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During his short time at Arkansas, head coach Bret Bielema has made a habit of slow starts to seasons. In 2014, the Razorbacks began 3-4 before rallying for a postseason bid. Last fall, the Hogs started 1-3, including a home loss to Toledo, but finished the season 6-2 to secure a Liberty Bowl invitation.
This season, Arkansas leads off against a Louisiana Tech team that went 9-4 with a New Orleans Bowl win over Arkansas State in 2015. The Bulldogs have plenty to replace, including graduate-transfer quarterback Jeff Driskel and leading rusher Kenneth Dixon, who rushed for 1,070 yards. They do boast a talented receiver in Trent Taylor, who had 99 receptions for 1,282 yards and nine scores in 2015.
But the Razorbacks are also replacing their starting quarterback with Brandon Allen’s departure, as well as their top two tailbacks in Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams, who were backfield stalwarts for the past three seasons.
After the home debacle against Toledo, Bielema will likely have his team’s attention, but this should be on every fan’s radar, given Arkansas’ history of slower-than-slow starts.
4. Ohio at Tennessee
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Head coach Butch Jones has Tennessee’s program headed in the right direction on the field. The Volunteers have made two consecutive bowls after four years away from the postseason, and they improved from 7-6 in 2014 to 9-4 in 2015.
The bar is set higher for 2016, with nothing short of an SEC East title likely to be accepted by Tennessee fans. September sets up as an interesting month for the Vols. On Sept. 10, they’ll play one of the program’s most anticipated games in recent memory, as they travel to Bristol Motor Speedway to take on Virginia Tech before what is expected to be the largest crowd in college football history. On Sept. 24, they’ll host Florida with hopes of erasing last season’s excruciating narrow defeat.
In between, they’ll welcome Ohio to Neyland Stadium. The Bobcats, led by veteran head coach Frank Solich, are coming off an 8-5 season and return 13 starters. Placed in between Virginia Tech and Florida, they just might catch the Vols by surprise. Will Jones have his team’s attention? We’ll see.
3. Louisville at Marshall
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Bobby Petrino’s second stint as Louisville head coach is going well. In the two seasons following Petrino’s return to Louisville, the Cardinals are 17-9 with a pair of postseason appearances. Playing in the ACC Atlantic Division with national powers Clemson and Florida State makes his job tough, but Louisville is poised for a solid 2016 season.
The Cardinals return 18 starters, and if quarterback Lamar Jackson can become a more polished player following a promising freshman season, Louisville’s ceiling should be higher than eight wins this fall. The first five games of the season aren’t easy, with matchups against the Seminoles and Tigers included in that span.
Florida State visits Louisville on Sept. 17, and the Cardinals travel to Clemson on Oct. 1. In between, Louisville must travel to Marshall on Sept. 24. Under head coach Doc Holliday’s guidance, the Thundering Herd have become one of the best Group of Five teams by posting three consecutive seasons with at least 10 wins.
Marshall returns 13 starters from a 10-3 team, including promising quarterback Chase Litton. This won’t be an easy trip for Petrino and Co.
2. Miami at Appalachian State
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Mark Richt inherits plenty from Al Golden as Miami’s new head coach. One of the biggest negatives is nonconference scheduling. The Hurricanes have set a number of surprising future home-and-home series with Group of Five foes, including Arkansas State, Toledo and Florida International. This year, Miami takes on what could be a really difficult game when it begins a home-and-home at Sun Belt foe Appalachian State in Boone, North Carolina, on Sept. 17.
“One of our goals is to play opponents in all sports that generate excitement among our University community, students, alumni and fans," Appalachian State athletic director Doug Gillin said in a release, per the Miami Herald. “Miami definitely fits the description. It will be a great moment in the history of our University when the Mountaineers and Hurricanes square off at Kidd Brewer Stadium.’’
The Hurricanes begin with home games against Florida A&M and Florida Atlantic before taking on the Mountaineers. App State has transitioned from FCS power (which saw them pull off a famous upset at Michigan) into a solid Sun Belt team. ASU went 11-2 last fall, including a Camellia Bowl win over Ohio.
The Mountaineers return 14 starters this fall, and a trip to Boone will be no walk in the park for Richt and Miami.
1. Georgia Southern at Ole Miss
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In two years as an FBS program, Georgia Southern has acquired a reputation as a frightening opponent. In their first month in FBS, the Eagles pushed both NC State and Georgia Tech to the wire and lost by a combined five points. Last November, Southern took Georgia to overtime in Athens before falling 23-17, but it still finished with a 9-4 record and a GoDaddy Bowl win over Bowling Green.
Should Ole Miss, which hosts the Eagles Nov. 5, be scared? Yes. Georgia Southern’s visit is sandwiched between a home game against Auburn and a visit to Texas A&M. It might look like a breather; it is anything but.
The Eagles led the nation with 355.2 rushing yards per game last year and return quarterback Kevin Ellison and tailback Matt Breida, who rushed for 1,608 yards and 17 touchdowns. If the Rebels don’t take them seriously, GSU is a dangerous opponent.
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