Troubling Trends the Golden State Warriors Must Correct Before NBA Playoffs
Every NBA team gearing up for the playoffs has lingering issues to resolve, and even the mighty Golden State Warriors are no different.
The Warriors have already put together one of the most memorable regular-season campaigns ever, but the big-picture goal remains another championship. The 60-6 record indicates a near-perfect run, but Golden State has been unusually sloppy lately.
Even though the Dubs are 12-2 since the All-Star break, they have outscored the opposition by 5.4 points per 100 possessions in that time span, according to NBA.com. That's almost seven points down from the season average, and it's a slightly worrying slump at a time when the team should be more engaged than ever.
Golden State is still the favorite to win it all, but it has to hit the right trajectory in order to peak by the time the postseason rolls around. There's no hiding behind an excellent record, and the Warriors typically possess enough self-awareness to recognize flaws which stand in the way of perfection.
Complacency
Complacency is a phenomenon in sports, especially when it comes to great teams. If everyone pushes the narrative of invincibility for long enough, it appears common for professional athletes to buy into the hype and lower their guards.
To a certain extent, that's what has happened with Golden State.
The Dubs have mostly played down to their opposition this season, which is the surest sign of complacency. Rather than succumbing to other title contenders, they have dropped most of their games in convincing fashion against lottery-bound teams.
The latest wake-up call was a 112-95 beating by the Los Angeles Lakers on Mar. 6. The Warriors were collectively ice-cold from beyond the arc, but head coach Steve Kerr's concern was something entirely different than the unfriendly rims.
"We got what we deserved," Kerr said after the game, via ESPN. "When the ball doesn't go in, you have to win with energy and defense and toughness, and we didn't have any of that."
Kerr's return to the sidelines following back surgery has been essential, as he holds every player accountable. The best example of this was Golden State's surprisingly close 108-105 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Jan. 30.
Draymond Green, who committed four careless turnovers in the third quarter, was called out by his coach for chasing a triple-double, according to ESPN's Ethan Sherwood Strauss: "I was chasing a triple-double," Green said after the game. "Coach came to me at halftime like, 'You better get it in this third quarter, 'cause you ain’t playing in the fourth,' and it was all downhill from there. So definitely my fault, what went on tonight."
The Warriors have been put on a pedestal and hailed as a basketball masterpiece. Just about every individual associated with the organization has received praise for contributing to the cause. Greased egos are dangerous, and they can lead to finger-pointing at the slightest sign of adversity.
The Dubs were riding an incredible wave of success under Luke Walton's interim tenure, but he doesn't quite have the authority to call out his players the same way Kerr can. It may be a struggle, but the second-year coach does his utmost to keep everyone grounded.
Underestimating the opposition may be this team's biggest flaw, and the lack of concentration has resulted in several self-inflicted issues and bad habits.
Turnovers
Turnovers have been Golden State's weakness for a while now—no team coughed the ball up more in last year's playoffs, and it ranks 19th in the category this season. It comes with the territory when playing an uptempo offense with a high volume of possessions.
But the Warriors have been sloppy nonetheless.
Sometimes the ball gets deflected in transition, and there are occasions when the defense simply reads what Golden State is running. However, the Warriors have recently looked anxious, especially when shots aren't falling against inferior teams, which results in mishaps like this:
This occurred early in the shot clock and was entirely unforced. Green tried to get ahead of the play by passing where he expected Stephen Curry to be after the point guard got loose behind a Harrison Barnes pin-down screen. It resulted in a wasted possession simply because of impatience when getting into a set.
Here's a different example:
In transition, both Curry and Green went for flashy passes on the way to what could have been a highlight play. The Warriors have plenty of excellent passers and usually get away with this type of stuff, but scaling back a little on the show could help in reducing the turnover numbers.
The 137-105 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Feb. 19 came in huge part due to sloppiness. Sure, a 51-point outburst by Damian Lillard had a lot to do with it, but Golden State lost the game after a disastrous third quarter in which it threw the ball away 13 times.
The turnover issue has become a popular topic in the Warriors' postgame interviews, even following victories. It's something the team knows it needs to address, and it shouldn't take more than a little more focus.
Faltering Defense
The Warriors have emerged as an unstoppable offensive force behind Curry, but this group has always taken pride on the defensive end. Even though Golden State keeps winning, it's simply doing so with superior force during recent wide-open games.
The Dubs have surrendered 106.5 points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break, according to NBA.com, a figure which would currently be tied for the 26th-ranked defense, according to ESPN's Hollinger stats. That's a worrying sign, especially since it's mostly due to a lack of effort.
Starting center Andrew Bogut recently echoed that notion, via Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle: "We’re throwing the ball all over the place, me included, and defensively, we’re getting back-cut, we’re losing guys and we’re not getting the second effort," Bogut said. "They’re easy things to clean up. It’s effort stuff, so I don’t think it’s a huge issue for us."
Green offered another take on the issue, suggesting that inconsistency on offense has hurt the team on the other end, via Simmons: "If you can’t get the defense set, you’re fouling to stop the ball," the power forward said. "All of sudden, you’re in the penalty and sitting there at the free-throw line. We can’t get the tempo of the game where we want it."
Both are fair points.
The Warriors hoist a ton of threes, which can force them to scramble in transition when shots rim out. Golden State thrives when it can set its defense and suffocate pick-and-rolls with pristine switching and rotations, and that positional versatility is partially negated when opponents are given an opportunity to run.
At the same time, it can't necessarily be an excuse. There have been plenty of occasions when the Warriors have abandoned their principles and played lazy defense, then relied on Curry's excellence to bail them out. That's not a good thing to get used to.
Golden State shouldn't have any trouble shrugging off the complacency in the playoffs, but starting to eradicate the recent trends should already be a priority.
Stats referenced in the article are accurate as of March 15.
You can follow me on Twitter: @VytisLasaitis
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