The Biggest X-Factor for Every 2016 NBA Playoff Contender
Every NBA playoff hopeful has a different plan for crashing the big dance, and every one has a unique X-factor who can lift their ceiling or lower their basement.
These players come from all spectrums of the hoops world. Some are stars who need to dominate every night, because they don't have enough help around them. Others are complementary starters or high-energy reserves, the kind of players whose good nights typically become great ones for their clubs.
Before running through the key pieces on each playoff contender, we have to define that term. The requirements here are simple—clubs just have to currently be within five games of a postseason berth.
Twenty-one teams make that cut. Actually qualifying for the second season or advancing in it will largely depend on how these critical contributors perform.
Atlanta Hawks: Jeff Teague
1 of 21
So much of the Atlanta Hawks' success is tied to the fact they aren't led by a single star. But head coach Mike Budenholzer's system still needs the right driver to power this engine.
The Hawks seemingly contemplated whether Teague is that player. His name made multiple turns through the rumor mill near the trade deadline, though CSN New England's Chris Mannix cautioned that the asking price for one of Atlanta's centerpieces was "borderline ridiculous."
Teague isn't quite an elite point guard. That fact, coupled with the emergence of third-year floor general Dennis Schroder, is likely why the Hawks felt comfortable fielding offers for Teague. But that sky-high price tag existed for a reason—when he elevates his game, he lifts others up around him.
The difference between the good Teague and the not-so-great one is often the determining factor in the final outcome. He's averaging 16.3 points on 46.2 percent shooting and 6.3 assists during Atlanta's wins compared to just 13.7, 40.1 and 4.7, respectively, in its defeats.
Boston Celtics: Isaiah Thomas
2 of 21
The common narrative surrounding the feisty Boston Celtics is that they lack a true star—save for perhaps coaching wunderkind Brad Stevens. It's up to Isaiah Thomas, Beantown's lone representative at this year's All-Star Game, to silence those concerns.
Few can match the overall output of the 5'9" scoring guard. He's one of only seven players averaging at least 21 points and six assists a night. But for Boston to truly challenge the NBA's ruling class, he needs to be consistently dominant.
His volume is almost always impressive—39 outings with 20-plus points—but efficiency has been an issue. Shouldering personal highs in shots (16.6 per game) and usage percentage (28.9), he has failed to match his career shooting rates from the field (42.3, down from 43.7) and long range (34.3, 35.9).
The Celtics' fifth-ranked defense is playoff-caliber, but their offense only looks that way when Thomas is part of the action. They have a top-10 output with him (105.8 points per 100 possessions, would be seventh) and bottom-five production without (99.3, tied for 28th).
Charlotte Hornets: Nicolas Batum
3 of 21
This role was earmarked for Nicolas Batum the moment he was acquired by the Charlotte Hornets in an offseason swap with the Portland Trail Blazers.
But the responsibilities attached to it have exponentially grown since. With Michael Kidd-Gilchrist lost for the year (shoulder surgery), Batum has ascended the Hornets' pecking order to top perimeter stopper. The 6'8" swingman has also had to carry a larger-than-expected offensive load with injuries and a drug suspension limiting Al Jefferson to his worst scoring effort since 2005-06 (12.3 points per game).
Batum can handle the 2-through-4 spots on either side of the ball, and he's versatile enough to help the Hornets in almost every area. Always a stat-sheet stuffer, he's been their high man in assists (5.6) and second-best contributor in points (14.5) and rebounds (6.4).
But his biggest problem has always been he's just as likely to shine in the spotlight as he is to disappear into the shadows. To wit, he's had 11 games with 20-plus points and another 14 in which he's failed to reach double digits. Between Charlotte's slim margin for error and his massive role, he needs to find the steadiness that has long eluded him.
Chicago Bulls: Derrick Rose
4 of 21
The Chicago Bulls aren't contenders. That's not a knock, just an observation. The past 10 champions have had net efficiency ratings of at least plus-4.7 points per 100 possessions. Chicago's current mark is minus-0.9, 17h overall.
All of that said, the Bulls are infinitely more interesting and perhaps significantly better with the good Derrick Rose. Not the great one; he's been banished to the history books by multiple knee surgeries. But the one who tallied 20.2 points on 45.4 percent shooting over his last 15 games could move Chicago back into the periphery of the "best backcourt" discussions once Jimmy Butler gets healthy (sprained knee).
That's assuming, of course, Rose's body holds up that long. No sooner had the words "I just feel like I'm back" escaped his lips, per ESPN.com's Nick Friedell, before the oft-injured guard was back on the bench, this time sidelined by hamstring tendinitis.
When healthy, Rose can still be a dynamic offensive force. He's a scoring threat anywhere inside the arc, thanks to slippery dribble drives and a reliable mid-range stroke. But he's also a walking question mark, due to both his health history and his still-developing chemistry with Butler.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Kevin Love
5 of 21
Even after the Cleveland Cavaliers axed David Blatt and promoted Tyronn Lue to head coach, Kevin Love's roller-coaster ride with his second NBA franchise has continued.
There are nights where he looks like the player who booked three All-Star trips over a four-year span with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Even amid his ups and downs, he's still managed 10 different 20-point, 10-rebound performances, tied for the 13th-most in the NBA.
But his scoring output has become a crapshoot. Just check his point totals from his previous eight games: 20, 8, 24, 29, 15, 8, 11, 10. He's at 16.0 a night on the season, but he's just as likely to blow the top off that number as he is to miss it by a mile.
Though the Cavs can't be certain when his on nights are coming, they rarely waste them. They've gone 14-4 when he scores at least 20 points. Cleveland's chances of snapping the city's decades-long title drought could hinge on Lue's ability to consistently bring out Love's best.
Dallas Mavericks: Wesley Matthews
6 of 21
Wesley Matthews has learned a tough lesson during his debut campaign with the Dallas Mavericks—there is no such thing as a smooth recovery from a torn Achilles.
Nearly one year removed from the injury, the three-and-D wing is still searching for his old form. His scoring has dipped to its lowest level since 2009-10 (12.3 points per game), while his shooting rates have plummeted to career worsts from the field (38.6) and three (35.3).
A notoriously hard worker and gritty defender, he's confident he can find a way out of this funk.
"I've just got to continue being me [and] stay confident, which I am," he said, per ESPN.com's Tim MacMahon. "I'm not worried about it. The team trusts me. Coaches trust me, and I'm going to work my ass off."
The Mavs have to love his fight and his leadership. But they cherish his numbers even more. They've gone 5-1 when he scores 20-plus points, 9-4 when he clears 17 and 22-24 when he's held to 16 or fewer.
Detroit Pistons: Tobias Harris
7 of 21
The Detroit Pistons approached the trade deadline with upgrades needed at both forward positions. While a deal for stretch big Donatas Motiejunas fell apart for medical reasons, the Pistons still found a player versatile enough to fill either spot: 23-year-old swingman Tobias Harris.
He's since settled in as the third piece of Detroit's offensive puzzle. He's averaging 18.3 points on 54.5 percent shooting through his first four games in the Motor City. Even when he doesn't get touches, he's a big enough threat to pull some of the defensive heat away from the potent pick-and-roll game between Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond.
As ESPN.com's Zach Lowe noted, there's plenty to like about Harris' fit:
"He's a brutalizing isolation scorer with a soft floater game who can blow by power forwards and bully wing players in the post. ... He'll slide into a more natural, third-option role behind Jackson and Drummond: spot up around pick-and-rolls, attack off the catch, abuse mismatches and (hopefully) move the ball when the situation calls for it.
"
But Detroit has to keep this version of Harris going. He was averaging just 13.7 points before the trade with the Orlando Magic, and his per-game marks typically result from peaks and valleys as opposed to steady play. Assuming the ninth-seeded Pistons secure a playoff spot, Harris' quest for consistency will ramp up in difficulty during his postseason debut.
Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes
8 of 21
There isn't much mystery left with the defending champion Golden State Warriors. Stephen Curry is changing the game with limitless range. Klay Thompson, the other half of history's best shooting backcourt, is an ignitable sniper. Draymond Green defines versatility at either end of the floor. Andrew Bogut is the proverbial immovable object anchoring the defense.
As for fourth-year swingman Harrison Barnes, though, his ultimate NBA calling is to be determined. Bolstered by smooth shooting mechanics and effortless athleticism, his toolkit suggests he could one day become a top-shelf scorer. But his opportunities are often limited due to the wealth of talent around him.
At some point during the Dubs' run, opponents will see just how far Barnes can rise above his fourth-option role. When teams overplay the Splash Brothers or hound the Curry-Green pick-and-roll, it could fall on Barnes to keep Golden State's machine running smoothly. Not to mention, he'll have to play bigger than his 6'8", 210-pound frame when he battles a punishing post player in one of the Dubs' downsized units.
He sometimes feels like a luxury for the Warriors, since they have so many other options, and he's overqualified for a complementary role. But if they can successfully defend their throne, he'll be a critical part of the process.
Houston Rockets: Dwight Howard
9 of 21
The Houston Rockets haven't looked right all season and, quite frankly, neither has their max-money center Dwight Howard. The eight-time All-Star, who's battled back and knee problems the past few years, hasn't averaged this few points (14.6) or shots (8.8) since his rookie year.
As a center who's long relied heavily on athleticism, the 30-year-old's injury problems play a part in this decline. So too does the lack of development in his offensive post game (0.85 points per possession on post-ups, 51st percentile). Ditto for the apparent wedge between Howard and co-star James Harden, who reportedly urged the Rockets to trade Howard, league sources told CBS Sports' Ken Berger.
If Houston is going to salvage its season, it desperately needs to get the big guy on track. Howard didn't have a great 2014-15 either (15.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.3 blocks), but he found an extra gear for the postseason (16.4, 14.0 and 2.3, respectively). The Rockets have to get that acceleration sooner this time around.
"Howard can still be a monster and at this point is probably underrated..." the Columbian's Erik Gundersen wrote. "He's still a menace in the paint, and although he can't make up for all of his teammates' flaws, he sure can make up for a lot of them on the defensive end."
Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner
10 of 21
Even those intrigued by Myles Turner's rare combination of size and skill have to be impressed by what the big-league freshman has already accomplished. The same player who didn't see the floor during the Indiana Pacers' 2015-16 debut and later missed 22 games with a fractured left thumb has now become one of the biggest factors in this group's success.
"We've got a young, really talented, special big man in Myles Turner that is going to be up and down," Pacers coach Frank Vogel said, per Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star. "I don't know how fast and how far he develops [the rest of this season], but it will be a big factor in what our ceiling is."
Turner's rapid development forced the Pacers to ditch their publicized small-ball plans, as he's a good enough marksman to space the floor and a 6'11", 243-pound rim protector. Over his last 18 outings, he's averaging 15.8 points on 54.8 percent shooting, 6.7 rebounds and 2.2 blocks. He's also logging 29.6 minutes a night—more than seven extra minutes he received last season at Texas (22.2).
At times, he's looked like a star: four games with 20-plus points, nine with at least three blocks. If those numbers start becoming more reliable, Indy's postseason potential changes dramatically. Paul George and Monta Ellis need help carrying this team, and the 19-year-old Turner could be the unlikely source of that support.
Los Angeles Clippers: Jeff Green
11 of 21
Jeff Green has always been something of an NBA tease.
His 6'9", 235-pound frame was built for the big leagues, complete with all the athleticism and length (7'1.25" wingspan) he'd need to succeed. Catch him on the right night, and he looks the part of an offensive star. He can dismantle defenses from inside and out, which explains his 46 career games of 25-plus points.
But those outings come few and far between. He grades out as a supbar three-point shooter (career 34.1 percent) and no more than a support scorer (career 14.1 points per game).
The Los Angeles Clippers bet a future first-round pick plus whatever's left of Lance Stephenson's potential on their ability to finally figure out Green. As their only significant midseason addition, he stands as their biggest hope of breaking through this core's second-round ceiling.
Memphis Grizzlies: Mike Conley
12 of 21
Motivation won't be an issue down the stretch for Mike Conley. As the clear leader of the 2016 free-agent point guard crop, he could have eight figures at stake over the coming weeks.
But that's just a small portion of the pressure facing the 6'1" floor general. With bruising behemoth Marc Gasol shelved for the year by a broken foot, Conley is the closest thing to a star the Memphis Grizzlies have. He's also battling some uncharacteristic shooting woes: 42.0 from the field, 35.9 from outside.
As the team's top healthy scorer (15.2 points) and distributor (6.1 assists), Conley must assume complete control of Memphis' 16th-ranked offense. He's not just driving the car anymore—he's washing it, keeping the gas tank full and handling all the oil changes.
This task isn't above his skill set. Over the five games since Gasol's injury, Conley has put up 18.8 points on 51.5 percent shooting (42.9 from long distance). But he's also laid an egg in that stretch, managing just eight points on 12 shots during Memphis' lone defeat. If the Grizzlies hope to hang with—or simply scare—the West's best, he'll need to play close to mistake-free basketball.
Miami Heat: Hassan Whiteside
13 of 21
Two years into his rags-to-riches run with the Miami Heat, Hassan Whiteside is still forming his identity.
He's capable of causing two-way havoc in a way few players can. To wit, the numbers over his last three outings are mind-boggling: 21.7 points on 62.8 percent shooting, 18.0 rebounds and 3.3 blocks. More importantly, those stats have been backed by substance. He played key roles in helping the Heat topple the Pacers and Washington Wizards and put forth a gritty effort against the reigning champs.
"He no longer seems to be putting up empty numbers or dragging his team down," SB Nation's Jesus Gomez wrote. "The flashes of individual defensive dominance are translating to team success on that end, and his offense is coming along nicely."
Time only knows how long Whiteside's recent tear will last. He still has a propensity to chase blocks that he shouldn't, which leaves Miami exposed on the defensive glass. And he's hardly a steady scoring presence, with more games of single digits (18) than 20-plus points (10).
But the Heat have their fingers crossed this apparent breakthrough will prove sustainable. With Chris Bosh potentially lost for the season, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, to another round of blood clots, they don't have another choice.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Serge Ibaka
14 of 21
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook can do some incredible things on the hardwood. That superstar duo can't, however, single-handedly power the Oklahoma City Thunder past the Western Conference's front-runners.
For that to happen, Serge Ibaka must cement himself as a Big Three member. Despite being skilled in the areas of shot-blocking, perimeter switching and long-range shooting, he's yet to officially reach that level. In fact, he's trending in the wrong direction with his points (12.8), rebounds (6.7) and blocks (2.1) for the second straight season.
He still carries a tremendous amount of on-court influence. The Thunder fare 9.5 points better per 100 possessions with him than without, which is close to the net difference Durant makes (plus-10.9).
But OKC has to get more from its versatile big man. If Ibaka's scoring stabilizes, the Thunder's second-ranked offense gets even harder to handle. And his long, nimble body remains their best weapon to guard against the leaks that have caused their defense to plummet to 18th in efficiency since the calendar change.
Orlando Magic: Aaron Gordon
15 of 21
A spectacular—albeit second-place—showing in the Slam Dunk Contest put Aaron Gordon on everyone's radar. The Orlando Magic's deadline deal to move Tobias Harris gave Gordon a big enough platform to stay there.
The 6'9" turbo-charged athlete boasts ideal defensive gifts for the modern game. He's long (6'11 ¾" wingspan), strong and overloaded with energy. Fearless in the post and fleet-footed on the perimeter, he can already handle most assignments. On the season, Gordon's opponents are shooting 3.7 percentage points worse from the field than they do on average.
Defensive-minded skipper Scott Skiles is having a hard time keeping Gordon off the floor. After averaging just 18.4 minutes in 2015, the springy sophomore increased that number to 25.9 in January, then 30.1 in February. There's ample room for that figure to grow during that stretch run.
That's great news for Orlando's defense but a question mark for the opposite side. If Gordon can't get to the basket, he often doesn't score. He's a 64.7 percent shooter at the rim and just a 31.7 percent finisher outside of three feet. The Magic can't afford to sit their best stopper, so his offensive development will be critical in making or breaking their playoff hopes.
Portland Trail Blazers: C.J. McCollum
16 of 21
After parting ways with four starters from last season's 51-win club, this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Portland Trail Blazers. Third-year scoring guard C.J. McCollum is a major reason why it could be another playoff campaign instead.
His statistics have soared like Zach LaVine from the free-throw line. Last season, McCollum averaged only 6.8 points, 1.5 rebounds and 1.0 assists. This year, those numbers have rocketed to 21.1, 3.6 and 4.3, respectively. And he's added more than volume. His shooting percentages are up across the board, along with his player efficiency rating (18.0) and per-36-minute scoring, rebounding and distributing marks.
"McCollum's scoring ability and his three-point jumper make him one of the most lethal scoring threats in the league," ESPN.com's Chad Ford wrote.
Where Portland goes from this point depends on McCollum's ability to maintain, or even increase, his newfound production. The Blazers know what they have around him—a certified star in Damian Lillard, a slew of athletic youngsters and a couple of useful vets. McCollum is the wild card, which has to be exciting considering how far he's already come.
Toronto Raptors: DeMarre Carroll
17 of 21
The standings and net efficiency rankings both see it the same way: The Toronto Raptors are the Eastern Conference's second-best team. But the prospect of snagging anything better than a silver medal looks grim without a major boost from their top offseason prize, DeMarre Carroll.
When healthy, he can simultaneously serve as a floor spacer, support scorer and defensive stopper. That means more breathing room for attacking All-Stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, plus fewer penetrations into the heart of Toronto's 10th-ranked defense.
But Carroll isn't healthy, having been sidelined by knee surgery since early January. It's still unclear when he'll return and how much rust he'll have accumulated by then. Still, the Raptors are confident he could be the missing piece that helps them over the hump, which is why they kept quiet at the trade deadline.
"That's the point. He's our trade," Raptors coach Dwane Casey told USA Today's Michael Singer. "Him coming back healthy is our trade. ... That three to guard guys like Jimmy Butler, like [LeBron] James, like [Carmelo] Anthony."
Sacramento Kings: Willie Cauley-Stein
18 of 21
Rookie 7-footer Willie Cauley-Stein seemed like a ready-made pro. After a rare three-year stay with John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats, Cauley-Stein left Lexington armed with athleticism, agility and all kinds of defensive potential.
But his readiness has been hard to gauge since, through no fault of his own. He's bounced in and out of the Sacramento Kings' starting five while searching for his spot amid a crowded frontcourt. He typically leaves an imprint when he sees the floor, but the size of it is often contingent on his workload—he's logged 30-plus minutes in five different games and fewer than 10 in five others.
However, his stock is seemingly spiking at the right time. He's currently enjoying the best scoring stretch of his brief career, having reached double digits in six of his last eight games and shooting a blistering 69.8 percent from the field.
His leash could use some loosening, as he's only getting 20.4 minutes per game. He shouldn't have the typical growing pains of a freshman since he's an energy player who rarely strays outside of his lane. If more Cauley-Stein means shoring up Sacramento's 24th-ranked defense, there's a chance the Kings could finally quench their playoff thirst after failing to qualify the past nine seasons.
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker
19 of 21
The San Antonio Spurs have become increasingly less dependent on the Big Three, thanks in large part to Kawhi Leonard's All-Star emergence and LaMarcus Aldridge's offseason arrival. But for all that's changed in the Alamo City, one truth remains: Tony Parker is still the key to unlocking Gregg Popovich's high-powered offense.
"I think if you know basketball, all the people that really know basketball and the coaches and guys that pay attention to who makes the team go engine-wise, they know that I'm having one of my best seasons," Parker told Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears.
The slithery point guard puts Pop's system in motion with relentless dribble penetrations. And if he slides past the defense, the Spurs have typically won that possession. They'll move the ball to find an open shooter, and once it gets there, they have the second-best spot-up attack.
If he's on, the Spurs are almost always on. He's averaging 13.4 points on 53.5 percent shooting (47.4 from deep) and 5.2 assists in 44 wins compared to 9.8 on 41.4 (33.3 from three) and 4.4 during nine losses.
Utah Jazz: Rodney Hood
20 of 21
Run a mental scan of the Utah Jazz's most important players, and sophomore swingman Rodney Hood can get buried on the list. At the very least, he's sitting behind do-it-all forward Gordon Hayward, burly big man Derrick Favors and rim-protector extraordinaire Rudy Gobert.
But Hood's growing scoring prowess might be the perfect yin to Utah's defensive yang. As a 6'8" shooting guard, the southpaw has the handles to create his own shot (or open looks for teammates) and the stroke to knock them down. He's quietly stormed through the last two months, averaging 18.3 points on 45.3 percent shooting (43.8 from distance), 3.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists since the start of 2016.
"You're quickly seeing the outlines of a professional scorer in this league," Basketball Insiders' Ben Dowsett wrote. "Combine that with the length and smarts to check multiple positions on defense...and an immensely valuable two-way player begins to take shape."
The Jazz look like potential playoff pests, but they don't have the widest margin for error. With no fully developed superstar on the roster, a glaring hole at point guard (created in part by Dante Exum's torn ACL) and limited spacing from the starting frontcourt, they need all the scoring they can get. Hood could be a sneaky-good supplier of exactly that.
Washington Wizards: Markieff Morris
21 of 21
After cycling through multiple power forwards this season, the Washington Wizards had specific needs at the position that weren't being filled. Some could supply outside shooting, others offered athleticism, but none checked off both boxes.
So, they took a calculated risk that a disgruntled Markieff Morris would scratch those two itches. It took a protected first-round pick and two players to land him from the Phoenix Suns, but they saw enough of a reward to place that bet.
Just 26 years old, Morris should be entering the prime of his career. A completed picture of his current puzzle would include toughness, tenacious defense, a serviceable stroke and an ability to make plays off the bounce—essentially what the Wizards covet from that spot.
But his campaign has been even more disappointing than theirs. On the court, he's managed just 11.0 points per game and posted his worst shooting rates from the field (38.7) and three (26.2). Away from it, he's had a felony assault charge hovering over him.
Though the price to get him was high, Morris could justify it if he's able to give the Wizards what they've been lacking. But he'll have to spend the stretch run scrambling to make that happen.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played Feb. 26.
