Predicting the Top 10 Defenses of the 2016 College Football Season
While it's true that college football is becoming more and more offensively focused, several of the nation's most successful programs still know how to make opponents miserable with their defenses.
Alabama and Clemson, the two teams that made it to the College Football Playoff National Championship last season, have been built on recent years of elite defensive recruiting, development and production. The depth and talent they have on that side of the ball continue to be impressive.
Other programs, such as Boston College and Wisconsin, excel defensively with underrated talent. They're known nationwide for putting defense first and turning low-star or even no-star recruits into some of the best playmakers in college football.
After last week's predictions for the top 10 offenses in college football for 2016, let's project who could finish in the top 10 nationally in total yards allowed per game this fall. Using last year's averages in total defense and taking returning starters into account, these are the 10 defenses we should expect to post some of the best numbers this fall.
Who do you think will have the best statistical defenses in college football? Sound off in the comments below.
Honorable Mention
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Here are five defenses that could make a serious run at the top 10 in 2016 but just missed the cut for the main list. Most of these programs have a recent tradition of pumping out elite defenses in the Power Five ranks, and they could do the same again this fall if they adjust to some roster turnover.
Florida
Florida returned to the top 10 in total defense last season after a brief one-year absence. The defensive line has a great mix of experienced talent (Bryan Cox and Caleb Brantley) and exciting young stars (CeCe Jefferson), and the secondary is still quite deep after the loss of Vernon Hargreaves III and Keanu Neal to the NFL. If Florida can fill in some gaps at linebacker, it could easily be a top-10 defense again in 2016.
Florida State
Linebacker will be a big concern for Florida State after the loss of Reggie Northrup and Terrance Smith, but the Seminoles are loaded with elite talent all across the defense. DeMarcus Walker and Josh Sweat will be menaces in the pass rush, and superstar sophomore Derwin James is already the leader of a secondary that returns plenty of experienced faces this fall.
Georgia
Georgia lost a lot of front-seven talent and its defensive coordinator, but it gained one of college football's best defensive minds in former Alabama assistant Kirby Smart by hiring him to be its head coach. The nation's No. 7 defense from 2015 needs to cash in on its stockpile of young defensive line talent from recruiting. The secondary, which was No. 1 nationally last year, is bringing everybody back.
Michigan State
Defense should lead the way for the defending Big Ten champions in 2016 as the offense looks to reload across the depth chart. Malik McDowell will continue to make the Spartans a force in the trenches, while do-it-all linebacker Riley Bullough anchors a talented positional group. MSU returns everyone at defensive back, which could mark a return to the "No Fly Zone" days in East Lansing.
Northwestern
Northwestern only returns five starters there this year, but the nation's No. 13 defense could be even better in 2016. Anthony Walker is a stat-stuffing machine at middle linebacker, and Matthew Harris and Godwin Igwebuike will keep the secondary sharp. The biggest question mark for the Wildcats will be the replacements for Dean Lowry and Deonte Gibson, whose big numbers in tackles for loss will be missed.
Alabama
2 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 276.3 (3rd in FBS)
Returning starters: 5
Alabama is like the Baylor of defense in college football. No matter how many starters it needs to replace, you can expect the Crimson Tide to be near the top of the total defense charts by season's end.
Nick Saban had his seventh top-five defense in eight years at Alabama in 2015's national championship run, and he has enough returning talent on this one to expect a similar finish in 2016. Sack leader Jonathan Allen decided to return to school to lead a defensive line that could go three-deep with former top-100 recruits.
The Tide won't have star linebacker Reggie Ragland this season, but they can rely on the talents of Rashaan Evans, Reuben Foster, Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson—the latter duo went somewhat under the radar in finishing second and third on the team in tackles for loss, respectively—to carry the front seven.
And, as Bleacher Report's Christopher Walsh recently wrote, a secondary that was once the defense's Achilles' heel is now going to be its strength in 2016 with the likes of Eddie Jackson, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Marlon Humphrey.
"Similar to how Alabama’s defensive line could attack in waves this past season, the secondary might be able to do likewise in 2016 and give opposing offenses a multitude of looks," Walsh wrote. "The talent is there again, with some experience mixed in that will only improve over the spring and summer."
Appalachian State
3 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 314.5 (11th in FBS)
Returning starters: 9
Appalachian State posted a strong 11-2 campaign last season behind a good offense and an even better defense that finished just outside the top 10 nationally in total yards per game.
That unit could get even better in 2016, as it returns nine of its 11 starters. The Mountaineers don't seem to have a single hole in their defensive depth chart. They only lost one starter—senior defensive end Ronald Blair—from a front seven that allowed a paltry 3.44 yards per carry in 2015.
"When [defensive coordinator Nate Woody] is putting in a bunch of different coverages and [linebackers coach Dale Jones] is barking at you, you just have to remember what your initial responsibility is: Play the base defenses good, and we’ll be alright," linebacker Jon Law said, per Brant Wilkerson of the Winston-Salem Journal.
Law, the team's second-leading tackler from a season ago, will lead a strong linebacking corps that features Eric Boggs (104 tackles as a sophomore in 2015) and Devan Stringer (61 as a sophomore). Latrell Gibbs picked off seven passes last year and took two of them back for touchdowns, and he'll be the focal point of a ball-hawking secondary.
If the Mountaineers can find someone to replace Blair's high level of production in the pass rush from 2015, they'll have a great chance to push into the top 10 in total defense as a favorite in the Sun Belt.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Boston College
4 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 254.3 (1st in FBS)
Returning starters: 7
The nation's best defense from a season ago lost its veteran coordinator in Don Brown—more on him later—but it returns the majority of its starters for 2016.
Boston College averaged almost a quarter of a yard per play less than the second-best defense in the FBS last season. It stifled opponents with a talented defensive line and an athletic secondary, which are two areas that will still have plenty of experienced talent after losing some of their top players.
Returning linebacker Matt Milano led the team in both sacks and tackles for loss, and defensive end Harold Landry had a breakout sophomore season with several games featuring multiple tackles for loss—he had 4.5 in a matchup against Florida State. Connor Strachan did a little bit of everything at linebacker, from racking up tackles to forcing turnovers.
In the secondary, John Johnson, Gabriel McClary and Isaac Yiadom will help ease the loss of star senior Justin Simmons. BC ranked sixth nationally in passing yards allowed per game last year and allowed only nine touchdowns while recording 13 interceptions.
Even without Brown and a few key players, Boston College has plenty of experience to nail down at least another top-10 finish in total defense this fall. Now if the Eagles could just do something about that miserable offense.
Clemson
5 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 313.0 (10th in FBS)
Returning starters: 4
Clemson might be the riskiest selection in this top 10. The Tigers lost six defensive players early to the NFL after making it to the national title game, including their top three players in tackles for loss and their highly touted lockdown cornerback.
But Clemson and defensive coordinator Brent Venables have been in this position before—one year ago, to be exact. The Tigers only returned three starters from the nation's No. 1 defense and still finished 10th nationally by the end of the 2015 campaign.
And it's not like Clemson is devoid of experienced talent after the exodus of draft-eligible players and senior leaders. Linebacker Ben Boulware came on as one of the team's most valuable players late in the season, and cornerback Cordrea Tankersley picked off five passes. Carlos Watkins and Scott Pagano form a fearsome duo on the interior of the defensive line.
The Tigers have been recruiting and rotating defensive talent like a powerhouse program in recent seasons, and it's paying off on the field. Former blue-chippers Austin Bryant and Christian Wilkins picked up valuable playing time in 2015 on a deep defensive line. Dorian O'Daniel was a top linebacker as a sophomore.
Best of all, Clemson plays a schedule that might be weaker overall than the one it ran through last season. Eight of the 11 FBS teams it faces in 2016 ranked 80th or worse in total offense in 2015. These reloading Tigers should tee off on opponents such as those.
Iowa
6 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 341.0 (22nd in FBS)
Returning starters: 7
Iowa's surprise run to the Big Ten Championship Game last season could have a sequel in 2016, especially considering the amount of star power the Hawkeyes bring back to their defense.
Defensive coordinator Phil Parker could have one of the Big Ten's best defenses on his hands this fall after his squad finished 22nd in yards per game and eighth in yards per play last year. Each position group returns at least a couple of starters, including a lockdown secondary led by Thorpe Award winner Desmond King.
Along the front seven, Iowa returns leading tackler Josey Jewell and could return top-notch defensive end Drew Ott, who missed most of the 2015 campaign with a knee injury. He has applied for a medical hardship waiver for 2016, but the NCAA has not ruled on it yet.
"The defense could be a cut above, especially if star end Drew Ott is given a medical redshirt," Tom Dienhart of BTN.com wrote. "If Ott gets a fifth season, it would be huge for a position that has some depth issues. End Parker Hesse is good but needs help off the edge."
Like Clemson, Iowa's defense could take full advantage of a favorable schedule in which most of its toughest competition has to come to Iowa City. This defense should be able to feed off the momentum from 2015 and the energy of the home crowd this fall to be one of the nation's best units.
LSU
7 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 347.2 (25th in FBS)
Returning starters: 9
After posting top-15 defenses in five straight seasons, LSU took a step backward in 2015 with new coordinator Kevin Steele. However, Steele is now at Auburn, and the Tigers replaced him with one of the best assistants in all of college football—former Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Aranda.
Aranda was the architect of a streak of top-10 defenses at Wisconsin. He'll now trade the diamonds in the rough that Wisconsin normally gets in recruiting for the elite blue-chip talent that fills the rosters each year in Baton Rouge.
The first-year coordinator is also stepping into an ideal situation at LSU in which the defense didn't have its typical exodus of NFL draft talent. Instead, the Tigers return nine starters on defense, from star linebacker Kendell Beckwith to a completely intact defensive line and a supremely talented secondary featuring Jamal Adams, Tre'Davious White and Kevin Toliver.
"The Tigers’ new defensive coordinator is known for utilizing multiple, creative alignments—including 3-4 fronts that would represent a departure from the 4-3 base defense that LSU used in recent years—and those schematic changes will allow the returning veterans to add to their arsenals," David Ching of ESPN.com wrote.
It may take some time for Aranda to put his full stamp on the Tigers, but he immediately took a Wisconsin defense that was 20th in total yards the year before he arrived and made it the nation's eighth-best in 2013. The potential is extremely high for an experienced defense such as LSU in Aranda's hands.
Michigan
8 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 280.7 (4th in FBS)
Returning starters: 6
Michigan's top-10 defense from 2014 improved in the first year under head coach Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. When Durkin left to become the head coach at Maryland, Harbaugh replaced him with Don Brown—the coordinator of the nation's No. 1 defense at Boston College.
"Unlike similarly unheralded units like Temple, [Boston College's 2015 defense] also ranged in experience with the DL consisting largely of upperclassmen while the defensive backfield was often filled with sophomores and freshmen," Ian Boyd of Football Study Hall wrote.
Brown is walking into a similar situation at Michigan in 2016. The defensive line should be downright nasty, with the experienced Ryan Glasgow, Chris Wormley, Taco Charlton and Maurice Hurst leading the way for a unit that just picked up the nation's consensus No. 1 recruit in Rashan Gary, according to 247Sports.
In the secondary, Michigan will have more experience than Boston College had as a whole last year. Jourdan Lewis was an All-American cornerback, and Jabrill Peppers is a freakishly athletic playmaker wherever he goes on the field. With safety Delano Hill coming back and a few key reserves, this could be the nation's top defense in passing yards per attempt again in 2016.
The major question mark for Michigan will be at linebacker, where the team needs all new starters. Brown did wonders with inexperience at the position for BC, and there's enough elite talent on the line and in the backfield to help ease the transition for the title-contending Wolverines.
Missouri
9 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 302.0 (6th in FBS)
Returning starters: 8
Missouri's offense was a mess in its losing 2015 season, but the defense still stepped it up a level and into the top-10 ranks nationally. Now with former defensive coordinator Barry Odom at head coach, the Tigers should continue to be excellent on defense with eight returning starters.
It all starts up front for Missouri, which has produced several great defensive linemen in recent seasons. The Tigers' four main starters from last year will be back—including the young edge-rushing duo of Charles Harris and Walter Brady—and the unit could be further boosted by the possible returns of Terry Beckner Jr. (indefinitely suspended) and Harold Brantley (missed 2015 with injuries).
At linebacker, Missouri will miss tackle machine Kentrell Brothers but will be able to rely on the experience of Michael Scherer and Donavin Newsom to help replace some of the production there.
Missouri's secondary returns both Anthony Sherrils and Aarion Penton, as well as a deep crop of young reserves at both safety and cornerback. Sherrils and Penton were third and fifth on the team in tackles, respectively, for the 2015 season.
The Tigers should continue to be a defensive-minded team under Odom, and they have plenty of returning experience to stay in the top 10 in total yards per game this fall. From the front to the back, Missouri has the depth needed to succeed defensively in the powerful SEC.
San Diego State
10 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 287.3 (5th in FBS)
Returning starters: 6
One of the most unheralded defenses nationally in 2015, San Diego State had a top-five unit that led the way for a Mountain West championship campaign. Head coach Rocky Long will return more starters than he has to replace on his unique 3-3-5 defense, making the Aztecs a prime candidate for another top-10 finish.
"[The 3-3-5] is the wishbone of defenses, hard to prepare for because not many teams use it. The 3-3-5 is about speed, camouflage, unpredictability, with players flying in from everywhere, seemingly from different angles every down," Nick Canepa of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote.
A key aspect of San Diego State's attack-minded defense is the number of playmakers it has who can completely take over games. Defensive end Kyle Kelley had 3.5 sacks in a bowl-game blowout over Cincinnati. Linebacker Calvin Munson had two pick-sixes in the 2015 season opener and had multiple tackles for loss in six different contests, including four against San Jose State.
The SDSU secondary had the second-most interceptions of any team in the FBS last year, and it returns nearly all of its starters there. Damontae Kazee finished with eight on the season, while Malik Smith had five in his final seven games of 2015.
San Diego State will be a tough out for any team it faces in 2016, with transitioning Cal and Northern Illinois serving as its top nonconference competition. This defense has the tools to feast again under Long.
Wisconsin
11 of 11
Yards per game in 2015: 268.5 (2nd in FBS)
Returning starters: 7
Wisconsin was a fixture of the top-10 lists in total defense under Dave Aranda, who is now at LSU. Now the question is if former USC defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox can do the same for the Badgers in 2016.
Wilcox was a rising star in the coaching world before arriving at USC, where he only lasted two seasons, as his defenses struggled to impress. At Wisconsin, he'll inherit most of the starters from a front seven that helped the Badgers finish No. 2 in total defense.
Vince Biegel is back after an incredible 2015 campaign at outside linebacker, while inside linebacker T.J. Edwards looks to stay strong after leading Wisconsin in tackles a freshman last season. Fellow linebacker Jack Cichy provided a huge spark off the bench, and the entire three-man defensive line is back for UW in 2016.
The secondary is a potential issue, with only cornerback Sojourn Shelton returning from the starting lineup. Wisconsin only gave up seven passing touchdowns in 2015, but now it has to replace its leading pass-rusher and three of its top defensive backs.
Wilcox will want to make a great impression from the very beginning in Madison, and the front seven he has could be the catalyst for another top-10 defense. While it'll be tough to replace a fan favorite in Aranda, Wilcox has a good opportunity to prove his USC tenure was just a bump in the road.
All stats courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted. Returning-starter counts courtesy of Phil Steele.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
