Predicting Destinations for the NBA's Top Buyout Candidates
Goodbye, NBA trade deadline.
Hello, buyout season.
The Association will still play host to a frenzy of player movement now that the trade deadline has passed. Teams will look to cut dead and unwanted weight, and those waived before March 1 will have the opportunity to be eligible for their next squad's potential playoff push.
Needle-nudging acquisitions aren't typically available in excess this time of year, but the 2016 buyout market is an anomaly. There are plenty of available names capable of making an impact at their next stop—provided it's the right fit.
Done Deal
David Lee's departure from the Boston Celtics became a formality as soon as the trade deadline passed, according to Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald. His days of being a featured offensive option are over, but he's a post-deadline pickup who can move the needle.
Hence the Dallas Mavericks' interest, per The Vertical's Shams Charania:
There isn't much a team can cull from Lee, 32, on the defensive end. He is a breathing coin flip as a rim protector and doesn't have the speed to guard playmaking forwards.
Still, he has the size necessary to body up against centers and is holding opponents to sub-39 percent shooting on post-up looks. Slotting him alongside a pair of perimeter pests limits the bleeding, and the right team will be able to use him as a floor-spacing 5.
Lee doesn't shoot threes, and his efficiency between 10 feet and the arc has plummeted. But more than 25 percent of his career looks are coming outside of 10 feet overall, and defenses have to respect his ability to put the ball on the floor and roll off screens:
There is real value in his playmaking savvy, which further negates a shaky jump shot. While it's come amid limited playing time, his assist percentage is at an all-time high.
Lee is uniquely qualified to carve up second-unit defenses with quick decision-making and acute awareness of where shooters are stationed. He sees the floor well from the top of the key and does a nice job of zipping passes around defenders to slashing wings:
The Mavericks project as a good fit for everything he does. They can use him like a Zaza Pachulia proxy.
Playing him with Dirk Nowitzki in the frontcourt will be a defensive disaster, but he will thrive as a passer and diver in head coach Rick Carlisle's pick-and-roll-packed offense.
Long-Shot Buyouts
D.J. Augustin, Denver Nuggets
D.J. Augustin doesn't make too much sense for the Denver Nuggets at first glance.
Rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay needs all the minutes head coach Mike Malone can give him, and Denver deploys two other featured ball-dominators in Will Barton and Danilo Gallinari. But Jameer Nelson is the Nuggets' lone backup floor general, and he remains on the shelf with a wrist injury.
Augustin doesn't break the bank, his contract comes off the books this summer and a 41.7 percent clip on catch-and-shoot triples renders him a viable off-ball weapon. Expect him to stay put.
If he doesn't, expect Detroit Pistons coach and president Stan Van Gundy to blow up his cellphone.
Roy Hibbert, Los Angeles Lakers
Roy Hibbert was only ever going to leave the Los Angeles Lakers via trade, per ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne:
Well, Hibbert wasn't traded. So he probably isn't leaving Los Angeles. Then again, you never know.
Not that there would be a huge market for his services if the Lakers decide to buy him out.
Opponents are shooting less than 49 percent when challenging Hibbert at the rim, but he is one of the league's least valuable offensive talents. Of the 125 players who have logged as many minutes as he has this season, he ranks 124th in offensive box plus-minus.
Ty Lawson, Houston Rockets
Ty Lawson is yet another marquee buyout option who, it seems, won't ever hit the waiver wire or open market.
Some initially thought the Houston Rockets' failure to trade him would lead to exit-option talks, but the team, for reasons not quite known, appears married to its flawed core.
"We still feel good about this group," Rockets general manager Daryl Morey told The Vertical after the trade deadline passed. "We were able to keep ourselves in the hunt this year if we can start playing together, and also set up much-better free agency and our ability to win down the road."
Lawson, for his part, apparently never wanted to leave Houston, per ESPN.com's Calvin Watkins:
A lot can still happen before March 1. Lawson's value has cratered, and he has the second-worst net rating among Houston players who have played at least 200 minutes.
But he's not yet a year removed from producing like an All-Star in Denver, and it's unlikely the Rockets ditch him when they're focused on climbing up the Western Conference's postseason ladder.
Looking for a New Home
J.J. Hickson
J.J. Hickson's tenure in Denver is over, per Charania:
Playing time has been hard to come by for Hickson this season. He has made just 20 appearances—an unavoidable byproduct of falling behind Kenneth Faried, Gallinari, Nikola Jokic, Joffrey Lauvergne and Jusuf Nurkic on the depth chart.
Hickson seems most valuable as a burly-bodied rebounder and finisher around the rim. But, as Mika Honkasalo underscored for HoopsHype, even his presumed strengths are tough to confirm:
"It seems counter-intuitive, but how good of a rebounder you are has very little to do with how many rebounds you get. Roy Hibbert and [Chris] Bosh have been oft-maligned for their poor individual rebounding numbers, but it’s much more important to see how the team rebounds with them on the court. Marc Gasol has never in his career averaged 10 rebounds per game, but his teams have always been much better with him on the court on the boards.
Hickson is the anti-Gasol and anti-Bosh, and his teams have uniformly rebounded the ball better with him off-the-court.
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Teams will nevertheless place stock in the raw data. Hickson is averaging a double-double per 36 minutes for his career and ranks in the league's top one-third pick-and-roll finishers. And, in sparse action, his rim- protection numbers have been similar to those of Nerlens Noel.
The Los Angeles Clippers have a need for another frontcourt contributor even after acquiring Jeff Green. They are among the Association's worst defensive rebounding teams and have no qualms about employing free-throw-shooting liabilities.
Blake Griffin's eventual return from a fractured right hand and four-game suspension, along with Cole Aldrich's rise through the rotation, will limit the number of available minutes. But head coach Doc Rivers has always looked to stash veterans on the bench (Hedo Turkoglu, anyone?), and it would be wise to house more than two centers ahead of the playoffs.
Prediction: Hickson signs with the Clippers.
Joe Johnson
Wouldn't it be fun to see Joe Johnson finish the season as a spot-up specialist with the Cleveland Cavaliers? Or as a small-ball 4 with the Toronto Raptors?
Or as the closest thing to an amalgam of Anthony Morrow and Andre Roberson with the Oklahoma City Thunder?
Of course it would. Sadly, not one of those super-duper fun scenarios is a given.
The Brooklyn Nets just hired a new general manager in Sean Marks, and it's unlikely he shakes up the roster before he's had ample opportunity to evaluate it. Sources told ESPN.com's Dave McMenamin that Johnson has no desire to leave Brooklyn, and his colleague Marc Stein described a buyout as a long shot:
League sources painted a different picture to Chris Haynes of Cleveland.com, indicating a buyout remains an option and the 34-year-old will sign with the Cavaliers if he leaves Brooklyn.
Parting ways with Johnson only adds to the Nets' loss total, and without a first-round pick this summer, they have every incentive to win as much as possible now. Unless he initiates the conversation and is willing to discount his remaining salary, there's little point in Brooklyn cutting him loose.
Prediction: Johnson remains with the Nets or signs with the Cavaliers.
Kevin Martin
Kevin Martin has no place on the Minnesota Timberwolves. He hasn't played since Jan. 23, and any minutes head coach Sam Mitchell doles out come at the expense of Minnesota's more deserving kiddies.
Shipping Martin elsewhere at the trade deadline would have been preferable. But his age (33) and $7.4 million player option for next season likely scared off any potential suitors. Buyout talk is now inevitable, per Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune:
Martin's shot selection has admittedly been awful this season. He is putting in a career-worst 37.5 percent of his field-goal attempts, and infrequent playing time has either messed with his rhythm or prompted him to subconsciously sabotage the Timberwolves' half-court sets by firing an unruly number of contested long twos:
And yet, Martin is still drilling a respectable 36.4 percent of his three-pointers for a Timberwolves squad that majors in not spacing the court. He is even more accurate when given breathing room; he buries more than 46 percent of his long balls when a defender is between four and six feet away.
Incorporating Martin into a rotation does demand delicate balance. He has never been a defensive plus and usually needs the freedom to drive and reach the foul line in order to maximize his value.
Enter the Oklahoma City Thunder. They used Martin to perfection during his one-year stay in 2012-13. He notched the third-lowest usage rate of his career, yet he found nylon on 42.6 percent of his long-range missiles.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook collapse entire defenses at will, and the Thunder still have a need for a sweet-shooting wing. Andre Roberson shouldn't be allowed to chuck threes, and Kyle Singler's shot has been off.
Martin is no better on defense than Anthony Morrow or Dion Waiters, but the scoring/spacing potential of a Durant-Serge Ibaka-Martin-Morrow-Westbrook unit is just absurd.
Prediction: Martin signs with the Thunder.
Steve Novak
Denver's odd men out are the gift that keeps on giving, per Charania:
Steve Novak hasn't enjoyed steady playing time since his magical—miraculous, really—stint with the New York Knicks in 2011-12 and 2012-13. He doesn't play defense, score off the dribble or set NBA-caliber screens. He doesn't do much of anything.
Except shoot. And man, oh man, can he shoot. Novak has jacked up nine three-balls this season and buried five of them. He is shooting 43.2 percent from deep for his career and, no joke, ranks as one of the best marksmen in league history.
More than 265 players have attempted as many threes as Novak for their career, and his conversion rate checks in at fourth. Only one active player, in fact, is ahead him: Stephen Curry.
So with that in mind, where should Novak sign? We defer to Dwyane Wade:
Nothing in the history of everything has ever made more sense.
The Miami Heat rank 28th in three-point shooting. They are 29th in catch-and-shoot efficiency from beyond the arc. Their best three-point shooter, Tyler Johnson, is probably done for the season. Their second-best sniper, Chris Bosh, is dealing with another blood-clot issue. They have open roster spots.
Chasing Novak should be a no-brainer.
Prediction: Novak signs with the Heat.
Anderson Varejao
The Portland Trail Blazers waived Anderson Varejao shortly after they acquired him from the Cavaliers, per Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com, and NBA.com's David Aldridge expects him to generate a ton of interest among the title-contender clique.
Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com named Oklahoma City as a potential destination while making an appearance on ESPN radio in Cleveland. But the Thunder don't have a real need for Varejao with Steven Adams, Nick Collison, Ibaka and Enes Kanter already in tow.
Latching onto the Atlanta Hawks makes far more sense. One of Al Horford and Paul Millsap can always cover for his absence of a three-point shot, and the Hawks could use the added offensive boost of a big man with nimble feet who can stroke baby jumpers and set good, hard screens.
Atlanta's bench ranks among the middle of the road on both sides of the floor, per HoopsStats.com, and just lost Tiago Splitter for the rest of the season. Varejao brings a lot of the same assets to the table. He isn't the ideal paint-policer, but he grabs rebounds and can keep the ball moving:
Only one other qualified player since 2011-12 is, like Varejao, averaging at least 12 points, 12 rebounds and 2.5 assists per 36 minutes. This dude named DeMarcus Cousins.
After retaining all of their core pieces past the trade deadline, the Hawks remain in win-now mode. Varejao fits that plan of attack and, to a lesser degree, can be viewed as insurance against Horford pricing himself out of Atlanta's range in free agency.
Prediction: Varejao signs with the Hawks.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and are accurate leading into games on Feb. 19 unless otherwise cited. All official trade information taken from NBA.com.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @danfavale.
