College Football Offenses That Might Struggle After 2016 NFL Departures
This is the time of year when college football writers and fans alike pore over the returning starter lists and count up the experience coming back for programs across the country.
Early projections for the season hinge a lot on the amount of talent coming back and how many key players decided to skip their final years of school to head to the NFL.
The biggest declared underclassman count in NFL draft history has been set in stone, and plenty of college teams are looking for future stars to fill in for their departed ones.
Here are seven college football offenses that were the most impacted by 2016 NFL draft departures and might struggle this fall. These schools were picked primarily for the number of early entrants lost to the next level, but graduated seniors are also listed on the following slides to show how much firepower was lost from 2015 to 2016.
The key word here is might, as new starters have been known to produce in even bigger ways than their predecessors each season. However, returning talent is extremely valuable in college football, and these are the teams that might not reach their high offensive standards due to the early losses to the NFL.
Arkansas
1 of 7
Early NFL draft departures: RB Alex Collins, TE Hunter Henry, OL Denver Kirkland, RB Jonathan Williams
Other notable departures: QB Brandon Allen, OL Mitch Smothers, OL Sebastian Tretola
Arkansas' offensive production in 2015 was quite remarkable, considering the Razorbacks finished 100th and 63rd, respectively, nationally in yards per game in Bret Bielema's first two seasons. Under first-year coordinator Dan Enos, Arkansas finished 29th in that category while scoring 30 or more points in more than half of its games.
This year, Bielema and Enos will have to rebuild that Arkansas offense. Leading rusher Alex Collins, All-American tight end Hunter Henry and left tackle Denver Kirkland declared early for the NFL draft, along with Jonathan Williams, who rushed for 2,000 yards in 2013 and 2014 before missing all of 2015.
Those early departures join veteran quarterback Brandon Allen, guard Sebastian Tretola and center Mitch Smothers as former starters who are no longer with the Hogs. As Bielema told Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee, Arkansas has to replace a lot, but there's hope in Fayetteville for the future.
"We've got some shoes to fill," Bielema said. "But I like our demeanor. They go about their work ethic second-to-none. I like the way they handle themselves."
Aside from a multiyear starter at quarterback, Arkansas must replace virtually all of its power-rushing attack along with several stars from football's biggest offensive line. This might be more of a transition year for the Hogs on offense.
California
2 of 7
Early NFL draft departures: QB Jared Goff, WR Kenny Lawler
Other notable departures: TE Stephen Anderson, WR Bryce Treggs, WR Trevor Davis, WR Maurice Harris, RB Daniel Lasco, WR Darius Powe, OL Jordan Rigsbee
For the most drastic change on offense between 2015 and 2016, look no further than California, which is losing potential No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff at quarterback and every player who caught more than 20 passes from him last season.
According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, Cal is only returning 15 percent of its offensive production from last season in 2016—tied for the lowest percentage in the entire FBS.
"The Golden Bears are a pass-first team that must replace their quarterback (soon to become a high draft pick) and top six receiving targets," Connelly wrote. "Quarterback and receiver experience are worth far more than running back or offensive line experience."
Kenny Lawler's decision to leave for the NFL early with Goff took away Cal's top-scoring skill player, as he led the team in receiving touchdowns for the past three seasons. The returning offensive talent at Cal caught just six of Goff's 44 touchdown passes in 2015. On top of all that, Cal will also have a new offensive coordinator this fall—Jake Spavital.
Cal was already losing a large chunk of its skill talent to graduation after the 2015 season, but Goff and Lawler's unsurprising departures will make this a total overhaul for the Golden Bears in 2016. At least they return four of their five starters along the offensive line.
Florida
3 of 7
Early NFL draft departures: WR Demarcus Robinson, RB Kelvin Taylor
Other notable departures: QB Will Grier (transfer), TE Jake McGee, OL Trip Thurman
Florida only lost two offensive players early to the NFL draft this year, but those departures were more setbacks for an attack that needs to see major improvement this fall.
Head coach Jim McElwain seemed to have turned around Florida's offense from the Will Muschamp days during the first half of the season, but Will Grier's suspension made the Gators fall flat down the stretch. Grier is now out of Gainesville, and his replacement, Treon Harris, is now at wide receiver after struggling in 2015.
Whoever takes over as starting quarterback at Florida—the Gators have several options now on campus—won't be able to rely on the talents of running back Kelvin Taylor, who had 1,035 of Florida's 1,777 rushing yards in 2015 and 13 of its 19 touchdowns on the ground.
Demarcus Robinson's decision to head to the NFL early takes away Florida's No. 2 receiver in yardage and No. 1 in total receptions from 2015. Tight end Jake McGee, who graduated, was the team's No. 4 receiver and had four touchdowns last season. Trip Thurman was a two-year starter on an offensive line that dealt with depth issues and injuries.
Florida returns several players with high potential across its offense in 2016, including wide receiver Antonio Callaway and offensive tackle Martez Ivey. But Robinson and Taylor's departures will make things tougher for an offense that needs answers in 2016.
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Notre Dame
4 of 7
Early NFL draft departures: WR Will Fuller, RB C.J. Prosise, OL Ronnie Stanley
Other notable departures: WR Chris Brown, WR Amir Carlisle, OL Nick Martin
Notre Dame will have a big-time decision to make this offseason as Malik Zaire returns from injury to compete with DeShone Kizer for the starting quarterback job. Whoever takes the spot, though, will have to deal with a new supporting cast on offense.
The Fighting Irish lost top rusher C.J. Prosise and top receiver Will Fuller early to the NFL draft. Both players had double-digit touchdowns for a Notre Dame offense that battled through several major injuries and still made it to a New Year's Six bowl game. Fuller's absence will especially be felt, as he had a combined 29 receiving touchdowns in back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons for ND.
Fuller won't be the only target gone for either Zaire or Kizer in 2016. Chris Brown and Amir Carlisle—No. 2 and No. 3 on the team in receptions last year, respectively—departed via graduation. Along the offensive line, potential top-10 draft selection Ronnie Stanley started three years as an elite tackle, and Nick Martin was a team captain at center for the Fighting Irish.
"Notre Dame’s offensive success began with elite offensive line play in 2015, with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Nick Martin anchoring those efforts up front," JJ Stankevitz of CSNChicago.com wrote. "The work done by Harry Hiestand’s group was critical in turning Notre Dame’s offense into one of the nation’s best in a 10-win season."
The Irish have depth across the board for 2016, but questions still abound for an offense that exploded to rank sixth nationally in yards per play last season. It will be tough for Notre Dame to match those numbers after losing a chunk of skill talent and two key offensive linemen.
Ohio State
5 of 7
Early NFL draft departures: RB Ezekiel Elliott, QB Cardale Jones, WR Jalin Marshall, WR Michael Thomas
Other notable departures: OL Jacoby Boren, OL Taylor Decker, OL Chase Farris, WR Braxton Miller, TE Nick Vannett
The immediate name that sticks out in any discussion of 2016 NFL draft decisions is Ohio State, which is losing a large number of players from one of the most talented rosters in recent memory.
Star running back Ezekiel Elliott unsurprisingly left Ohio State early for the NFL, taking his back-to-back 1,800-yard seasons and 41 rushing touchdowns with him. Elliott was the rushing attack for OSU last season outside of the quarterbacks and Braxton Miller. The No. 2 running back for the Buckeyes, Curtis Samuel, had 17 carries for 132 yards in 2015.
Michael Thomas and Jalin Marshall's early entrances into the NFL draft, along with Miller's graduation, leaves Ohio State without its top three receivers from last year. Cardale Jones is gone, too, after starring in the Buckeyes' postseason run in 2014 and starting 2015 as the No. 1 quarterback.
Ohio State will also be without three of its starting offensive linemen, including the Big Ten Offensive Lineman of the Year Taylor Decker. All in all, the Buckeyes lost nine players with starting experience on their offense heading into 2016.
While the Buckeyes have one of college football's most adequately prepared rosters for such an exodus thanks to a streak of top-five recruiting classes, all those departures stack up in projections for the 2016 season. Plenty of new starters will have to step up in a hurry for this Ohio State offense.
Ole Miss
6 of 7
Early NFL draft departures: WR Laquon Treadwell, OL Laremy Tunsil
Other notable departures: OL Fahn Cooper, WR Cody Core, OL Aaron Morris, OL Ben Still, RB Jaylen Walton
The two offensive stars from Ole Miss' incredible 2013 recruiting class declared for the 2016 NFL draft, leaving the Rebels with two big holes to fill for 2016.
All-world wide receiver Laquon Treadwell caught nearly everything thrown his way in 2015, posting 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns one year after a gruesome leg injury against Auburn. He more than doubled Ole Miss No. 2 receiver Cody Core, who is also gone from Oxford, in receptions and nearly doubled his yardage last season for the Rebels.
Laremy Tunsil protected Ole Miss quarterbacks' blind side for three straight seasons after signing with the Rebels in 2013, although he missed several games of his final year due to an NCAA investigation. But Tunsil isn't the only one leaving the offensive line, as Daniel Paulling of the Clarion-Ledger noted, all five starters from the group that started in the Rebels' Sugar Bowl victory are gone.
Ole Miss also has to replace senior running back Jaylen Walton, who led the team in carries in each of the last three seasons.
Fortunately for Ole Miss, quarterback Chad Kelly decided to stay in school, and plenty of backups in the skill positions and along the offensive line received important playing time last season. However, 2016 is still going to be a big adjustment for the Rebels after losing a go-to receiver such as Treadwell and the bulk of the offensive line.
UCLA
7 of 7
Early NFL draft departures: OL Caleb Benenoch, WR Thomas Duarte, RB Paul Perkins, OL Alex Redmond
Other notable departures: OL Jake Brendel, WR Devin Fuller, WR Jordan Payton
UCLA and its fans have to be excited about the potential of quarterback Josh Rosen, who will enter his second season with the Bruins after a strong true-freshman campaign. But how will the "Chosen Rosen" carry an offense that must replace the majority of its starters?
The Bruins will be without Paul Perkins, who left early for the NFL after back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in Los Angeles. Perkins had more than 200 carries in both years, while his backups never had more than Soso Jamabo's 66 last season.
The protection in front of the new-look rushing attack will go through a big-time change, too, as Caleb Benenoch and Alex Redmond both decided to go pro early. They'll join Jake Brendel, who started all four years for UCLA at center and is now an all-time record holder for the Bruins.
Three of Rosen's top four receivers from last year—early-draft entrant Thomas Duarte, Devin Fuller and Jordan Payton—are no longer on the team. Those three were the only players to grab multiple touchdowns from Rosen in 2015 and will be missed in the passing attack.
Like several other teams on this countdown, UCLA has recruited well and has talented depth ready to step up in 2016. But losing the main rushing threat and most of the top receivers will be a challenge for any quarterback to overcome, even one as talented as Rosen.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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