College Football QBs Poised to Become Stars in 2016
The 2015 season was not an especially quarterback-friendly year in college football. Rather, '15 was the year of the running back. But '16 could be far different. Deshaun Watson (Clemson) and Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) are two of the stars returning.
But where will the breakout quarterbacks come from? That's what this list projects.
With few exceptions, we stayed away from quarterbacks who have already put up huge numbers. In other words, the entire college football world may not know about Washington State's Luke Falk and Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes II, but it's not like they're not already established stars. Both led their respective conferences in passing. They're underrated perhaps but certainly not unproven.
So, chances are, if there's a quarterback missing from this list, it's probably because he's already recognized as it is.
Rather, in the following slides are quarterbacks primed under the right circumstances to take a huge jump forward in 2016. Whether they thrive immediately as first-year starters or are simply ready to put up video game-type stats, these are quarterbacks looking to become household names by season's end.
Who's your breakout quarterback of 2016? Sound off in the comment section below.
Colorado: Davis Webb
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Davis Webb had some success as a starting quarterback at Texas Tech. He was named the Holiday Bowl MVP in 2013. However, he battled with Baker Mayfield and later Patrick Mahomes II before losing out on the starting job for good.
With a clean start at Colorado, Webb has the chance to shine again—and immediately, too, as a grad transfer. As Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports noted, "the timing of Webb's arrival is key for Colorado, since three-year starting QB Sefo Liufau is expected to be sidelined for the 2016 season with a Lisfranc injury."
Liufau's health is a major part of this projection. He had surgery last November, but the timeline for his return isn't clear. At the very least, Webb is a good insurance policy. Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury has raved about Webb, even in his statement giving Webb his release (via ESPN.com's Max Olson). That should tell you how much the coaching staff thought of Webb and how he'll do at Colorado.
The Buffs offense can put up points, and Webb has thrown for more than 5,000 yards at Tech. This is an ideal fit, and if Liufau isn't healthy, Webb should be able to pick up the pace with no problem.
Georgia: Jacob Eason
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It's easy to see freshman quarterback Jacob Eason following a Josh Rosen-type path at Georgia. That's not to say Eason needs to be compared to Rosen's freshman year at UCLA, but he's a big, talented prospect who will have the opportunity to start right away.
In a way, we're calling our shot: Eason will be Georgia's starting quarterback next year—at least at some point. Still, Eason has to manage those expectations to actually earn the job.
"He's going to come in with so much hype, everybody on the outside is looking at him like he's the savior," former Georgia quarterback D.J. Shockley told B/R's Barrett Sallee. "He's going to be the next Stafford, or whoever people want to compare him to. The biggest thing for him to do is to just be one of the guys. Don't be too high profile. Don't try to be anything extra than who he is."
Eason will get a lot of side-by-side comparisons to fellow '16 quarterback and Ole Miss signee Shea Patterson. Of the two, Eason is more likely to start right away, since Chad Kelly returns for Ole Miss.
Louisville: Lamar Jackson
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Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson actually started in Week 1 of last year—his pass against Auburn was intercepted—but not unlike the Cardinals themselves, he didn't blossom until late in the year. By the Music City Bowl against Texas A&M, though, Jackson was a bona fide stud.
“When Lamar started practice in August, you could tell right away he had some special abilities and could be a real special guy, and then we had such a hard early schedule,” coach Bobby Petrino told Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com.
Jackson is a gifted athlete and can beat just about any defense with his legs, but he's shown flashes of being a capable passer as well. Against Florida State, Jackson had his best game of the season with 307 yards through the air and three touchdowns.
Entering next season as the front-runner to start full time, Jackson is the dark-horse ACC quarterback to watch.
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North Carolina: Mitch Trubisky
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Marquise Williams had some great moments during his time as starting quarterback for North Carolina. His likely successor, Mitch Trubisky, has an awful lot of hype around him, though.
David Hale of ESPN.com already predicted Trubisky will be the most prolific quarterback in the ACC: "All due respect to Deshaun Watson and Brad Kaaya—both will have big seasons in 2016—but plenty of North Carolina fans thought Trubisky should have been the starter the past two seasons, and he will step into an uptempo offense loaded with weapons at the skill positions."
Trubisky has only really played mop-up duty so far, but he's looked stellar. With a talented offense returning around him, Trubisky can come out of nowhere to shine in the ACC.
Northwestern: Clayton Thorson
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The Big Ten wasn't known for great quarterback play last season outside of a few names (Connor Cook, C.J. Beathard and the like). Northwestern's Clayton Thorson is a player on the rise, however.
At this stage in his game, Thorson is a far more accomplished runner than passer. As a redshirt freshman, he ran for 397 yards (including sacks) on 100 carries but threw more interceptions (nine) than touchdowns (seven). Clearly, the quarterback needs to improve in that area.
But there's no denying Thorson's athleticism. In Week 1 against Stanford, Thorson ran away from everyone on a 42-yard touchdown, the only one in the game. Defenses have to respect Thorson's legs, but do they respect his arm?
If he improves on that, you're now talking about one of the more dangerous quarterbacks in the Big Ten.
Oregon: Dakota Prukop
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We're bending the rule of excluding established quarterbacks with Oregon's new transfer, Dakota Prukop. Similar to former Ducks quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. when he was at Eastern Washington, Prukop was a star at Montana State but a virtual unknown at the Football Bowl Subdivision level.
That could change in 2016. Prukop enters the Ducks' quarterback competition in time for spring practice, which gives him a leg up on where Adams was this time last year. At Montana State in 2015, Prukop threw for 3,025 yards and ran for another 797 yards to go along with 39 total touchdowns.
Oregon's ability to recruit and develop quarterbacks out of high school can be brought into question, especially now that Morgan Mahalak is transferring down to Towson. But if Oregon can strike gold yet again with Prukop as a grad transfer, then it's hard to knock the program too much. With the skill talent Oregon has returning in 2016, Prukop could pick up where Adams left off to become the top quarterback in the Pac-12.
USC: Max Browne
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USC has moved on from the Cody Kessler era. The front-runner to succeed him is redshirt junior Max Browne, who has served as the No. 2 guy the last two years. Sitting behind Kessler gave Browne a chance to develop, but it also gave him some perspective.
"I got beat out fair and square," Browne told Ted Miller of ESPN.com. "It took me longer than I thought it would to probably grasp things, especially that first spring. In hindsight, I think I was very critical of myself, very hard on myself. That's a criticism I'd have on myself.”
At 6'5" and 220 pounds, Browne has more of the prototypical measurements than Kessler, plus a huge arm. The question is whether he's ready to step into a full-time starter role. He'll have a new head coach (Clay Helton) and offensive coordinator (Tee Martin) but plenty of weapons to throw to and an experienced offensive line.
For a possible first-year starter, Browne has a ton of upside.
Washington: Jake Browning
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Washington is picking up a lot of offseason chatter as the trendy Pac-12 North pick for 2016. As Bill Connelly of SB Nation tweeted for his advanced stats preview, there's room on the Huskies bandwagon. Quarterback Jake Browning can be a big part of Washington's potential resurgence.
Browning was a true freshman in 2015 and started in 12 of 13 games. He finished with nearly 3,000 yards through the air and played his best football in the second half of the year. In each of his final six games, Browning eclipsed at least 200 yards passing. He averaged more than 10 yards per attempt three times in that span, and he threw for four touchdowns twice.
The Huskies in general were young last year, but they came close a few times to winning more than seven games. This is a team to watch going into the '16 season, and while Browning doesn't figure to put up the biggest numbers in the Pac-12 North, he can enter into the conversation as one of the top signal-callers in the conference.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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