College Football's Winners and Losers of 2016 NFL Draft Early-Entry Decisions
On Friday, Jan. 22, the NFL will release the entire list of underclassmen who have declared for the 2016 draft. As of Tuesday, more than 100 have already done so, per the unofficial list from NFL.com.
Ultimately, it's not our job to say whether those decisions were right or wrong; players declare for the draft for a variety of reasons, many of which are personal. However, the sheer number of early declarations means some prospects will go undrafted.
But the repercussions of these decisions expand far beyond the individual player. For instance: No team is likely to lose more underclassmen to the draft than Ohio State. That means the Buckeyes and head coach Urban Meyer have a bigger rebuilding job in 2016.
With all that in mind, it's time to look at the winners and losers of the 2016 NFL draft early-entry decisions based on potential draft grades and the strength or weakness of a position group, as well as big-picture consequences.
Winner: Clemson Defensive End Kevin Dodd
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From where, exactly, did Kevin Dodd come?
Clemson had to replace its entire defensive line coming into the 2015 season, which meant a group of mostly no-names was going to have to control the line of scrimmage. All the Tigers did with those no-names was finish fourth nationally in sacks per game (3.2).
Contributing to one-fourth of Clemson's 48 sacks was Dodd, a player who had just eight tackles as a backup in 2014.
Dodd was an absolute monster in the College Football Playoff, with 11 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and four sacks. His best game by far was in the national championship loss to Alabama in which he recorded five tackles for loss and three sacks.
Per B/R draft analyst Matt Miller, Dodd could be a top-50 pick. If that comes to fruition, Dodd will be one of the fastest risers in the draft.
Loser: Ohio State
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Every year, at least one college football blue blood is hit hard by early entrees to the NFL draft. This time, Ohio State gets that trophy with nine underclassmen departing. One of them, quarterback Cardale Jones, didn't finish the year as the starter.
Overall, though, the number of early departures is a tribute to the talent on the roster and development by the coaching staff. However, it leaves head coach Urban Meyer with a big reloading job for 2016.
Some positions will be in better shape than others. Sam Hubbard already has starting experience thanks to a Week 1 disciplinary issue for defensive end Joey Bosa. As a freshman, Hubbard finished second on the team with 6.5 sacks. But in the big picture, Ohio State loses a lot of skill players at wide receiver and in the secondary.
“Actually, the good teams kind of get hurt because the good players leave for the draft so often,” former college and NFL coach Charlie Weis told Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports.
Winner: Cal Quarterback Jared Goff
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The 2016 quarterback draft class doesn't look like it's going to be particularly strong. Cal signal-caller Jared Goff is on track to be one of the first quarterbacks taken, though. B/R's Matt Miller, in fact, has Goff going No. 7 overall to the San Francisco 49ers.
Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch could be the guy who challenges Goff as the No. 1 quarterback taken. Both are excellent passers, but Goff is a little more refined in that area. That could make him the most attractive prospect to NFL scouts.
If this were a stronger quarterback class overall, Goff might not be the top quarterback prospect—or even in the top two or three. But because this isn't 2015 with Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, or 2012 with Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, Goff's stock is instantly higher.
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Loser: Penn State Quarterback Christian Hackenberg
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Christian Hackenberg didn't make a mistake by leaving college a year early to head to the NFL, even though he's No. 4 in Miller's quarterback rankings. Frankly, there's little another year at Penn State would have done to help Hackenberg grow.
In the past two seasons, Hackenberg has been sacked time and time again, and he was running for his life every other snap. What he needs is a chance to sit and develop under the right quarterback coach and scheme. Maybe then he'll reach the potential everyone saw when he was a freshman for the Nittany Lions.
The shameful part is that it had to come to this for Hackenberg. He has all the physical tools in the world to be a successful quarterback in the NFL: unreal arm strength, decent enough mobility and, on an inconsistent basis, otherworldly ball placement. It just never came together for him at Penn State like it was supposed to. There are myriad reasons for this, and it's not as simple as saying Hackenberg is good or bad.
Hackenberg will be a polarizing prospect this draft season, but someone will take a chance on him. That would have been a surprising statement two years ago.
Winner: Defensive Linemen
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The last couple of slides explained why this year's quarterback class isn't the best in recent memory. The defensive line class, though? It's loaded. A short list for this incredibly deep position includes underclassmen Joey Bosa (Ohio State), Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma State), Robert Nkemdiche (Ole Miss) and Andrew Billings (Baylor).
One way to look at this is it's a loss for their respective teams. On the other hand, good pass-rushers and disruptive defensive linemen are at a premium now that the NFL is a passing league. There's an argument to be made that reliable D-linemen are every bit as important as a franchise quarterback.
For the NFL organizations looking for a pass-rusher or interior lineman—and there are always a number of those—this draft class is prime.
Don't be surprised if Bosa goes No. 1 overall and if several other defensive linemen earn first-round status.
Winner: Alabama
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Alabama will have to reload in 2016. This is unavoidable. Gone are quarterback Jake Coker, defensive end Jarran Reed and linebacker Reggie Ragland, among others. But as far as early departures go, the Crimson Tide aren't losing nearly as much as they could.
Yes, running back Derrick Henry and defensive end A'Shawn Robinson are leaving—as one would expect. However, the following players are (or are believed to be) coming back: tight end O.J. Howard, linebacker Reuben Foster, defensive end Jonathan Allen and safety Eddie Jackson.
"The smartest thing I could do was come back to Alabama and finish out my career," Allen told Chris Low of ESPN.com. "It’s not an easy decision. You think about all the what ifs and hear what everybody is saying on the outside. But at the end of day, it’s a business decision, and I feel like I made a good one.”
Allen brings up a good point. So often, the term "business decision" is associated with leaving early and earning money. However, the opposite can be true. By coming back for another season, it's possible players such as Allen and Howard make themselves millions for 2017.
In the meantime, Alabama is just happy to have them back.
Loser: Notre Dame
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It wasn't supposed to end like this for linebacker Jaylon Smith. The prized Notre Dame defender suffered a brutal knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State, but he's still one of the best draft prospects available. That's the good news.
The bad news—for Notre Dame, at least—is the Irish won't get to utilize Smith for one more season. Lost on the other side of the ball is offensive lineman Ronnie Stanley. Between Smith and Stanley, Notre Dame has now lost on potentially two top-15 (or even top-five if things shake out well enough) players.
Also gone are wide receiver Will Fuller (more on him later and why he, individually, is a winner), running back C.J. Prosise and cornerback KeiVarae Russell. For the most part, those players are ranked at or near the top of their respective position groups, per Miller and other outlets.
Notre Dame may not lose the most underclassmen to the draft, but the quality of players it loses cannot be overstated.
Winner: Big-Play Wide Receivers
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Another excellent position group for the 2016 draft is wide receiver. The number of big-play guys coming out early continues to be astounding. Among those are Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss), Will Fuller (Notre Dame) and Corey Coleman (Baylor).
Fuller averaged 20.3 yards per reception and had 14 touchdowns as college football's best deep threat. Coleman, the Biletnikoff winner for best receiver, wasn't far behind with 18.4 yards per catch, but he had 20 touchdowns. Treadwell, coming back from a gruesome leg injury in 2014, led Ole Miss with 82 catches for 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns. The former blue-chip recruit ended his career with three scores over Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl.
Even some of the lesser-known names declaring early have big-play potential. Western Michigan's Daniel Braverman averaged 12.7 yards per catch and had at least 100 yards receiving in eight games this past season. Wide receivers capable of beating defenders deep with blazing speed or picking up major yards after the catch are not lacking in the draft.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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