Bold Predictions for 2016 College Football Offseason
The 2015 college football season officially ended Monday night when Alabama held off Clemson 45-40 in a fantastic national title game, but the great thing about college football is it never really ends. While no games are played, the offseason—from now until September—tends to generate a healthy share of news that impacts the games that unfold on the field.
Coaching-staff shuffles, realignment rumors, player arrests, head coaching smack talk—it’s all talk, but it fuels fans’ fires for the part of the college football calendar that truly matters. Here’s a look at some bold predictions for the 2016 college football offseason. “Bold” doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll happen, but they’re certainly within the realm of possibility. Let’s go.
A Scandal Will Dominate the News Cycle
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College football coaches have no direct contact with their players during the summer months. That makes them nervous, and for good reason. Idle hands find trouble all too often, leading to the 3 a.m. phone calls and releases containing phrases like, “We are aware of the situation concerning (insert player here) and are working to gather all the facts.”
It’s an offseason fact. A star player will be involved in a controversial situation (perhaps through no fault of his own) and have his name paraded through the headlines. It’s a reality of dealing with 18- to 22-year-old young adults. Someone will make a mistake and get the nation talking. It’s just a matter of who, where and when.
Bret Bielema Will Anger Someone in the Big Ten
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For an Iowa alum and former Wisconsin head coach, Bret Bielema sure enjoys taking jabs at the Big Ten. Last fall, Bielema, who just finished his third season as head coach at Arkansas, took a shot at Ohio State’s strength of schedule and later proposed an SEC-Big Ten Challenge.
The Razorbacks are on an upward trend, having finished their second consecutive winning season capped by a bowl victory over Kansas State. It’s a long offseason, and the outspoken Arkansas coach will have plenty of opportunities to talk into a hot microphone. It’s really only a matter of time before he says something interesting that will capture the attention of those in the Midwest.
A hint before you speak, Bret: acquire all tapes of your team’s loss to Toledo. Ouch.
Fast Tempo Will Be a Storyline Again
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With the recent release of the Will Smith film Concussion, player health and head trauma have again become a hot topic in football circles. Are we doing enough to keep players safe in the long term? It’ll certainly be a topic of conversation during the offseason.
SEC coaches like Alabama’s Nick Saban and Arkansas’ Bret Bielema favor a more buttoned-down style, although both had their share of success with the passing game this season. Don’t be surprised if either coach renews talk of slowing down the game’s tempo (after all, Saban saw what fast-paced Clemson was able to accomplish against his defense).
Fast-pace proponents will push back, but player health and tempo could quickly emerge as a flashpoint of discussion in 2016.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Staffs Will Shuffle Following National Signing Day
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With Texas-San Antonio hiring LSU assistant Frank Wilson, the college football head coaching carousel is grinding to a halt, save for an unexpected hire by the NFL. That’s good news for fans worried about coaching stability. Well, kind of.
The 26 new FBS head coaching hires still need to fill out their assistant coaching staffs. Meanwhile, many of the assistants they’re targeting are still working for other programs, trying to lock down the 2016 class. Recruiting is all about relationships, and a coach bolting for another program days before national signing day can adversely affect those long-held relationships.
That’s why a second assistant coaching carousel sets off once the signed national letters of intent arrive in offices across the nation. Staffs are restructured, and assistants assume new responsibilities with new programs.
The recruits? Well, they’ve signed their letters of intent; there's not much they can do at that point. It’s an unfortunate reality of college football, and a reminder that recruits sign with a school, not a coach.
Michigan's Jim Harbaugh Will Make Headlines Again
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Before he’d even coached a game at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh was impossible to avoid last offseason. His plan to run “satellite” recruiting camps raised the ire of SEC coaches, and everything else Harbaugh did generated headlines.
Well, guess what. Harbaugh lived up to the hype with an impressive debut season, and the Wolverines should be even better this fall. Harbaugh has already floated the idea of holding part of Michigan’s spring football practices in Florida, giving his players a working spring vacation, per Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press. By the way, that’s SEC country, too.
With an offseason to think, expect Harbaugh’s fertile, competitive mind to come up with more ways to push Michigan into the offseason spotlight. Will opponents talk? Of course they will.
The Big 12 Announces Its Intent to Expand
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The Big 12 scored a crucial victory this week when the NCAA passed a rule allowing leagues with fewer than 12 teams to hold league title games as long as the league plays a full round-robin schedule. That is important and gives the league a significant new revenue stream, but it doesn’t necessarily shore up its tenuous position as the smallest Power Five conference, sporting only 10 teams.
To survive the inevitable next round of college football realignment, the Big 12 needs to live up to its name. It needs a dozen teams. The question is whether there are programs out there that help the league gain value while justifying the fact that it will divide the revenue pot two more ways.
Oklahoma president David Boren told John Hoover of the Tulsa World that he thinks expansion is vital:
"When you look at the big five conferences, we’re the one with only 10 members, we’re the one without a playoff, we’re the one without a conference network. And when you look at the long-range stability and the well-being of the conference, I think we’re disadvantaged by being the ‘little brother,’ so to speak, by being smaller. I think expansion is crucial.
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Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby and other league presidents will ultimately decide that securing the league’s future is worth the monetary risk, and will announce the Big 12’s intention to expand to 12 teams, form two divisions and add a league title game. It’s the right move, and adding a pair of teams from a group including BYU, Cincinnati, Central Florida or Memphis, among others, would make the league stronger and better equipped for the years ahead.
Trevor Knight Stabilizes Texas A&M's Offense
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Trevor Knight never really lived up to big expectations at Oklahoma. Knight led Oklahoma to an easy Sugar Bowl win over Alabama following the 2013 season, and that ratcheted up the pressure on the young quarterback. Knight struggled as the starter the following season, throwing 14 touchdowns against 12 interceptions as Oklahoma finished 8-5.
Knight lost his starting role to Baker Mayfield and mostly watched as he led the Sooners to the College Football Playoff. He needed a new start, and he’ll get it as a graduate transfer at Texas A&M. The Aggies need Knight, too. Head coach Kevin Sumlin lost both Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray to transfers and parted ways with offensive coordinator Jake Spavital in favor of UCLA’s Noel Mazzone.
Knight has an excellent opportunity in College Station with A&M's talented receivers, including standout freshman Christian Kirk. He’ll seize the Aggies’ starting role and quickly lend stability to an offense badly needing it.
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