Early Predictions for Biggest 2016 College QB Battles

As one college football season ends, we square our attention on another.

And where else to start but at quarterback?

Quarterbacks are football's leading men and make a disproportionate difference in an otherwise team-driven sport. Therefore, offseason quarterback battles are like casting decisions made public. It's an intrigue on par with almost any actual game.

Last year, I nailed most predictions, but also had big swings and misses. A lot of that concerned future transfer news, as Everett Golson joining Florida State (and leaving Notre Dame), Vernon Adams Jr. joining Oregon and Greyson Lambert joining Georgia changed the spectrum of those battles after my article was published.

This year, with pieces such as Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb and Pittsburgh transfer Chad Voytik on the board, I expect something similar to happen. Only this time, as it does, I will come back in and update my predictions to reflect the new battles.

Until then, this is based on the best information we have available at the time, plus my personal belief about certain quarterbacks.

Sound off and let me know where you disagree!

Honorable Mentions

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In narrowing this list to 20, we had to make tough omissions. The battles included met two main criteria: (1) They take place for big-name bowl teams, and (2) there's no clear-as-day favorite. 

Therefore, the omissions fell into two categories. 

1. Non-Bowl Team, Close Battle

These battles are intriguing but take place on losing teams:

• Boston College (Patrick Towles vs. Darius Wade)
• Maryland (Dwayne Haskins vs. Perry Hills vs. Caleb Rowe)
• Oregon State (Seth Collins vs. Darrel Garretson)
• Rutgers (Chris Laviano vs. Chase Rettig)
• Syracuse (Eric Dungey vs. Zack Mahoney)

2. Bowl Team, Clear Favorite

These battles take place on good teams but are less competitive than the top 20 battles. Based on history, some of these favorites will lose the job. But right now, their odds look slightly more weighted than the rest of the list (favorites in bold):

• Indiana (Danny Cameron vs. Zander Diamont vs. Richard Lagow)
• LSU (Danny Etling vs. Brandon Harris vs. Anthony Jennings)
• NC State (Jalan McClendon vs. Jakobi Meyers)
• West Virginia (William Crest vs. Skyler Howard)
• Wisconsin (Alex Hornibrook vs. Bart Houston vs. Kare' Lyles) 

We could have placed some others in each category, but none were seriously considered for the list. However, the 10 above almost made it.

Alabama

LM Otero/Associated Press

Contenders

• Blake Barnett (Fr.)
• Cooper Bateman (Jr.)
• David Cornwell (So.)

Cooper Bateman played meaningful snaps early and started against Ole Miss, but eventually lost his job to Jake Coker. He fits the Nick Saban mold of "forgettable game manager," but David Cornwell and Blake Barnett have higher ceilings. Cornwell is a strong-armed Coker type, while Barnett has Marcus Mariota-like tangibles. Even as a redshirt freshman, his mobility might give him an edge.

The Pick: Barnett

Arizona State

Credit: 247Sports

Contenders

• Bryce Perkins (Fr.)
• Brady White (Fr.)
• Manny Wilkins (So.)

None of these three has ever taken a college snap. Brady White is the biggest name and has the highest pedigree, but according to Fabian Ardaya of ASUDevils.com, "the physical maturity [hasn't] come for him yet." Ardaya favors Perkins because of his running ability, and considering what this offense might be next season, when it's forced to replace D.J. Foster, Devin Lucien and offensive coordinator Mike Norvell, that gives him a big advantage.

The Pick: Perkins

Arkansas

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Contenders

• Austin Allen (Jr.)
• Rafe Peavey (So.)
• Ty Storey (Fr.)
• Ricky Town (Fr.)

Ricky Town faded down the stretch of his recruiting cycle, then transferred from USC in the summer. But the tools that at one point made him a high 5-star prospect—the size (6'3"), the intangibles, the delivery—are all still there. He's not quite Ryan Mallett, but he can attack the deep third for an offense that proved, despite head coach Bret Bielema's smashmouth routes, it has playmakers to stretch the field. Austin Allen has Brandon Allen's bloodline, but Town has the better pedigree.

The Pick: Town

Auburn

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Contenders

• Woody Barrett (Fr.)
• John Franklin III (Jr.)
• Jeremy Johnson (Sr.)
• Sean White (So.)

Right now, Jeremy Johnson is a punching bag—and rightfully so. The supposed Heisman dark horse imploded badly and lost his job in 2015. But Sean White didn't look great behind him, and JUCO transfer John Franklin III, a former Florida State backup who moves like Nick Marshall but doesn't throw like him, has a long way to go before he's ready.

Johnson still has great size (6'5", 240 lbs), decent mobility and the tape from his first two seasons doesn't lie. If he overcomes what appears to be a mental block, there's a fleck of potential left in him. Sign me up for the redemption story.

The Pick: Johnson

California

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Contenders

• Ross Bowers (Fr.)
• Chase Forrest (So.)
• Max Gilliam (Fr.)
• Luke Rubenzer (Jr.)

Chase Forrest served as Jared Goff's backup and is the favorite—if there is one—to slide up the depth chart. He'll be pushed by promising freshman Max Gilliam, an early enrollee coming off a huge senior season, along with redshirt freshman Ross Bowers and quarterback/safety hybrid Luke Rubenzer. Gilliam is a wild card, especially when considering Goff was also a true freshman and an underdog when he won the job. But for now, the safer bet lies with Forrest.

The Pick: Forrest

Florida

Eugene Tanner/Associated Press

Contenders

• Austin Appleby (Sr.)
• Luke Del Rio (Jr.)
• Feleipe Franks (Fr.)
• Treon Harris (Jr.)

Luke Del Rio has gotten around, but Florida's system should feel like home. Offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier held the same job when Del Rio played at Alabama, and quality control coach John Garrett was his coordinator at Oregon State. Treon Harris is a two-year starter and Feleipe Franks is a big-time recruit, but in the end, this will come down to Del Rio and fellow transfer Austin Appleby (Purdue). Del Rio gets the edge based on familiarity.

The Pick: Del Rio

Florida State

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Contenders

• Malik Henry (Fr.)
• Deondre Francois (Fr.)
• Sean Maguire (Sr.)

Sean Maguire might be good enough to win a national title at Bama, but when a redshirt freshman is special, you let him play. Jimbo Fisher made that decision with Jameis Winston over Jake Coker, and he will likely make it again with Deondre Francois. Even with a young team aging into win-now mode, he has to roll the dice on inexperience. Francois has the lower basement but higher ceiling, which is what Florida State needs to pass Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division.

The Pick: Francois

Georgia

Credit: 247Sports

Contenders

• Jacob Eason (Fr.)
• Greyson Lambert (Sr.)
• Brice Ramsey (Jr.)

Jacob Eason stuck with Georgia after the Bulldogs fired Mark Richt, enrolling early to make his commitment official. There's no way to tell if he was "promised" anything, but the fact that he stayed says a lot about his confidence. He's the No. 4 overall recruit in the 2016 class and has been likened to former Bulldog Matthew Stafford. Greyson Lambert and Brice Ramsey won't make it too easy, but if Eason loses the job, something went wrong.

The Pick: Eason

Michigan

Tony Ding/Associated Press

Contenders

• Zach Gentry (Fr.)
• Alex Malzone (Fr.)
• Shane Morris (Jr.)
• John O'Korn (Jr.)
• Brandon Peters (Fr.)
• Wilton Speight (Jr.)

Six names will vie to be Jim Harbaugh's next project at quarterback. Each has considerable potential, but only Houston transfer John O'Korn, who passed for 3,117 yards and 28 touchdowns as a freshman in 2013, has enjoyed any tangible success.

"I wouldn't have it any other way," O'Korn said of getting benched for Greg Ward Jr. two years ago, per Angelique S. Chengelis of the Detroit News, because it led him to Ann Arbor and Harbaugh.

Harbaugh will be pumped about it too.

The Pick: O'Korn 

Michigan State

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

Contenders

• Tyler O'Connor (Sr.)
• Damion Terry (Jr.)

In his first and only career start, Tyler O'Connor beat Ohio State in Columbus. Yes, he posted hardly any numbers, but that game was played in a downpour, and the Buckeyes—winners of 25 straight games against not Tyler O'Connor—have a defense on which we'll look back and think, "whoa, how did that team ever lose?"

Damion Terry is a dual-threat QB and will poach occasional snaps from the Wildcat, but O'Connor is the man for this job. One can only tell so much from garbage time, but when he's played (OSU game notwithstanding), he's thrown a highly catchable ball.

The Pick: O'Connor

Missouri

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Contenders

• Drew Lock (So.)
• Maty Mauk (Sr.)

As a junior, Maty Mauk played terribly and behaved even worse. He lost his job and missed the final eight games on suspension. The problem is that backup Drew Lock, a highly touted and well-behaved freshman, looked even more lost under center.

One of the first things Barry Odom did as head coach was reinstate Mauk, who gets one more shot to change his narrative. He's great with his legs and makes enough plays with his arm to get by. Accuracy will always be an issue, but he makes the plays that count.

The Pick: Mauk

Notre Dame

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Contenders

• DeShone Kizer (So.)*
• Brandon Wimbush (So.)
• Malik Zaire (Jr.)*

Notre Dame is this year's "that's a good problem to have" team. Opponents would kill to have Malik Zaire or DeShone Kizer, much less both of them. But as long as he's healthy, which he should be after breaking his ankle against Virginia in Week 2, Zaire puts too much pressure on a defense. His deep ball is just as succulent as Kizer's, but his running is even better. If not for injury, he would have likely been a Heisman finalist.

The Pick: Zaire

Note: Kizer will be a redshirt sophomore, and Zaire will be a redshirt junior. Notre Dame does not acknowledge redshirt years on paper, so its roster lists them differently.

Oregon

Contenders

• Taylor Alie (Jr.)
• Jeff Lockie (Sr.)
• Travis Jonsen (Fr.)
• Dakota Prukop (Sr.)

Last year's star FCS transfer, Vernon Adams Jr., came to Oregon and led the country in passer rating. One could claim he was a product of the system, but backup Jeff Lockie, who returns to the competition this season, finished 60 points behind him in that metric.

Dakota Prukop may or may not be the next Adams Jr., but he'll be given every benefit of the doubt. He'll also have the benefit of spring ball. However, keep an eye on redshirt freshman Travis Jonsen (nee: Waller), whose mobility and under-the-radarness feel familiar. 

The Pick: Prukop

Penn State

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Contenders

• Trace McSorley (So.)
• Tommy Stevens (Fr.)
• Jake Zembiec (Fr.)

Trace McSorley won support from the old offensive regime, but that was, well, the old offensive regime. Fordham head coach Joe Moorhead replaced John Donovan at offensive coordinator and will pick his own replacement for Christian Hackenberg.

McSorley is a classic overachiever, which makes him suitable, if not coveted as a backup. But Stevens, if he's coached right, looks the part of a quality starter. In March, Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod called Stevens "the future of Penn State football."

The Pick: Stevens

South Carolina

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Contenders

• Brandon McIlwain (Fr.)
• Connor Mitch (Jr.)
• Lorenzo Nunez (So.)
• Perry Orth (Sr.)

Perry Orth played well in spots last season, throwing three touchdowns apiece against Tennessee and Clemson and two against LSU. His full body of work will not prevent a competition—especially not with Connor Mitch, the Week 1 starter, back and healthy—but it should give him a slight leg up. Really, though, this battle could go all four ways. Lorenzo Nunez played meaningful snaps as a true freshman, and Brandon McIlwain, a top-175 overall recruit, is in for spring practice.

The Pick: Orth

TCU

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Contenders

• Kenny Hill (Jr.)
• Foster Sawyer (So.)

A lot has changed since redshirt freshman Kenny Hill, then replacing Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M, swept the nation and spent four weeks atop the Heisman rankings. In the meantime, he's become something of a punchline—a warning not to judge a guy too soon. So perhaps those who think he can never replace Trevone Boykin have judged Kenny Trill too soon. He's a perfect fit for this system and has more experience than true sophomore Foster Sawyer.

The Pick: Hill

Texas A&M

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Contenders

• Jake Hubenak (So.)
• Trevor Knight (Sr.)

How long can Trevor Knight tread off the 2014 Sugar Bowl? Long enough to beat out Jake Hubenak. He lost his starting job to Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma, but Mayfield finished fourth in the Heisman voting; who wouldn't have sat behind a player that good? Hubenak held his own after inheriting a sinking ship, but he's young and for the most part pretty average. Knight at least has some superstar qualities. He just needs to tie them together.

The Pick: Knight

USC

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

Contenders

• Max Browne (Jr.)
• Sam Darnold (Fr.)
• Jalen Greene (So.)

Because he's barely played at USC, it's easy to forget how good Max Browne was in high school. He ranked No. 1 among quarterbacks and No. 11 overall in the 2013 recruiting class. And check the names who ranked just behind him:

• 11. QB Max Browne, USC
• 12. ATH Derrick Henry, Alabama
• 13. QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
• 14. WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss
• 15. CB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State
• 16. CB Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech
• 17. OLB Jonathan Allen, Alabama
• 18. DE Chris Jones, Mississippi State
• 19. TE O.J. Howard, Alabama

Those aren't stars he ranked ahead of; they're megastars. And while recruiting rankings don't tell the whole story, they do indicate a measure of raw ability. Sam Darnold is an anomaly who should have ranked even higher (in 2015) than he did, and at some point he will start for USC. But that will be when Browne goes on his way.

The Pick: Browne

Utah

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Contenders

• Brandon Cox (Jr.)
• Chase Hansen (So.)
• Troy Williams (Jr.)

Had Troy Williams signed with Utah out of high school, when his grade was .9512, he would have ranked as its second-best recruit since 2000. So why does it seem like nobody is talking about him? It's not like he has much competition. Chase Hansen is a safety playing quarterback, and Brandon Cox is a career backup. Williams spent last year at the JUCO level after transferring from Washington and posted 38 total touchdowns. He's the favorite, but this whole battle is hard to read.

The Pick: Williams

Virginia Tech

Credit: 247Sports

Contenders

• Jerod Evans (Jr.)
• Dwayne Lawson (So.)
• Brenden Motley (Sr.)

Brenden Motley threw 163 passes last season, but he's third in line to claim the starting job. Unlike true sophomore Dwayne Lawson, he doesn't have the upside to beat Jerod Evans. And while Evans, the No. 1 JUCO quarterback in the 2016 class, lacks experience at the FBS level, he is just as new to head coach Justin Fuente as Motley and Lawson are. The last JUCO quarterback to grade higher than Evans was Zach Mettenberger in 2011.

The Pick: Evans

Note: All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite ratings.